Blackpool North and Cleveleys
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17886 (46.9%)
Conservative: 14346 (37.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4455 (11.7%)
Other: 1446 (3.8%)
Majority: 3540 (9.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15558 (35.9%)
Labour: 20620 (47.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5533 (12.8%)
UKIP: 1579 (3.6%)
Majority: 5062 (11.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15889 (37.3%)
Labour: 21610 (50.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4132 (9.7%)
UKIP: 950 (2.2%)
Majority: 5721 (13.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19105 (35.5%)
Labour: 28051 (52.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4600 (8.6%)
Referendum: 1704 (3.2%)
Other: 288 (0.5%)
Majority: 8946 (16.6%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Joan Humble (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Paul Maynard (Conservative) Educated at St Ambrose College, Trafford and Oxford University. Former CCO researcher, currently Special Advisor to Liam Fox MP. Contested Twickenham in 2005.
Roy Hopwood (UKIP) Contested Blackpool North and Fleetwood 2005. Contested North West Region in 2004 European elections.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 82314
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 20.5%
Over 60: 28.3%
Born outside UK: 3.3%
White: 98.5%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 79.7%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 12%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.1%
Owner-Occupied: 76.2%
Social Housing: 9.6% (Council: 7.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 11.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 14.6%
I run a catering business in South Shore and all the shop keepers are moaning at how quiet it is at the moment. There is no business around and the economic slow down is hitting the area very hard with businesses closing down every week. The man who runs the clothes shop opposite me said on Sunday that this weekend last year he took £650 whereas this year he he took £180. Also take into account the casino fiasco and the loss of the major conferences. Blackpool is struggling and the perception, rightly or wrongly is that the Government are not helping
They appear to be more interested in these ghastly trendy HR departments and equality red tape rather than the hard graft of running a small or medium sized business.
I hope the Tories will give firms a tax cut on business rates, and scrap at least some of the unnecessary regulation, and at least give personal tax payers some of their money back.
Then, hopefully, there will be more people in your and neighbouring shops.
I suspect this will help the Tories politically, however.
So where will the tax rise take place to ensure that the overall level of public spending will be maintained? Which is also a Tory pledge, yes?
“So where will the tax rise take place to ensure that the overall level of public spending will be maintained? Which is also a Tory pledge, yes?”
I think you need to ask George Osborne that question not JJB
But if you want my answer taxes overall should be lower and concentrated on wealth consumption not on wealth creation.
Given that Blackpool South now looks in serious jeopardy for Labour, if the state of the parties at the next general Election is anything like that now, this looks like a “routine” Conservative gain.
My prediction for this seat;
Cons 18000
Labour 15000
Lib Dem 4000
Others 2000
2010 -
Conservative: 16500
Fleetwood Workers Unity:7500
Labour: 7000
Liberal Democrat: 5000
Other: 2000
Majority: 9000
Do I detect that Peter’s not being quite serious with his predictions anymore?
My most likely forecast now is that the Tories will take this seat fairly convincingly, 2 - 3,000.
“2010 -
Conservative: 16500
Fleetwood Workers Unity:7500
Labour: 7000
Liberal Democrat: 5000
Other: 2000
Majority: 9000″
I would assume so to, mainly because Fleetwood is no longer part of the constituency.
I did not write the above anyway…..
I would have known that Fleetwood was no longer part of this seat.
Impersonation is serious given what is stated. As the above post is just silly I will regard it as nothing more that a prank.
So it wasn’t you who predicted the Speaker’s decapitation by Tommy Sheridan?
(See Glasgow NE)
It did strike me why you wanted to make a fool of yourself, but as someone known to make the odd home from the pub prediction myself, we are both serious posters for the most part, so was a bit baffled by it.
Anyway, I improved the Glasgow NE prediction and made it Con gain instead.
Thinking about it, a rash of absurd posts appeared in one go, which is not your style.
I wonder whether it was the same person who put the “Iain” Mackintosh posts in one go, and never returned.
The swing back to Labour after the economic crisis puts this seat very much in the critical zone where local issues may change a couple of hundred votes that make all the difference.
adrianrpym is quite right. Labour actions, as a Party as well as a Government, have not exactly been helpful to Blackpool. They have ceased to hold conferences here and scrapped the casino plans (whatever one thinks of them morally). In particular, following the shambles for the bigwigs trying to get to Blackpool by train, why didn’t Labour invest, during the boom years, in electrifying the railway from Blackpool and Preston to rectify the bad service they personally experienced, to help commuting between Blackpool and Manchester and to provide a through service between Blackpool and London? For Labour to turn their back on a bad experience by moving their conference elsewhere didn’t show a caring attitude.
The Government is currently setting up a committee under Lord Adonis about building new high speed rail lines. Since at least the 1960s, railway investment has been on the basis of one big project followed by another (West Coast line electrification, East Coast line electrificiation, Thameslink upgrade, Channel Tunnel Rail Link, London Crossrail is next). They never get round to second tier lines like Preston to Blackpool, even though these often reach marginal consitituencies like this. And in the long term railways won’t meet the imperatives of climate change unless they replace road traffic to places like Blackpool and Fleetwood. Even in the current economic crisis, Labour need to rebudget to meet rail technology, not merely operate within historically determined pots of money handed out by the Treasury.
Many marginal seats are rather amorphous. Blackpool is more identifyable than many, but even so the big issues are often theoretically centred on Blakpool South. The consequence is that to get those extra votes parties must concentrate on national policies that will win votes in consitituencies that are sadly rather unfocussed socially and politically.
I would like all to understand the Census listing of those born outside the UK. Implying they are immigrants. over half million people of british origin are born outside of the UK every year-so theyre not immigrants, but the stupid census records them as immigrants. How stupid is that?
You can be British-born, but born outside the UK.