Blackburn
2010 Results:
Conservative: 11895 (26.14%)
Labour: 21751 (47.81%)
Liberal Democrat: 6918 (15.2%)
BNP: 2158 (4.74%)
UKIP: 942 (2.07%)
Independent: 411 (0.9%)
Others: 1424 (3.13%)
Majority: 9856 (21.67%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17514 (42%)
Conservative: 9498 (22.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 8583 (20.6%)
Other: 6063 (14.6%)
Majority: 8016 (19.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 9553 (22.9%)
Labour: 17562 (42%)
Liberal Democrat: 8608 (20.6%)
BNP: 2263 (5.4%)
Green: 783 (1.9%)
UKIP: 954 (2.3%)
Other: 2082 (5%)
Majority: 8009 (19.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12559 (31%)
Labour: 21808 (53.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 3264 (8.1%)
UKIP: 1185 (2.9%)
Other: 1668 (4.1%)
Majority: 9249 (22.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11690 (24.6%)
Labour: 26141 (55%)
Liberal Democrat: 4990 (10.5%)
Referendum: 1892 (4%)
Other: 2784 (5.9%)
Majority: 14451 (30.4%)
Boundary changes: minor changes, Blackburn loses around 1,000 voters in some split rural wards to Rossendale and Darwen
Profile: a former centre of the textile industry now fallen on harder times. Blackburn is a mix of deprived inner-city wards dominated by Muslim voters, white working class areas and Conservative voting suburbs. According to the 2001 census around a quarter of the population is Muslim. Several far-right candidates from the BNP and splinter group the English First Party have won seats on Blackburn and Darwen Council in the past. In 2005 the BNP got just over 5% of the vote, just beating the former British Ambassador to Uzbekistan, Craig Murray, who was standing as an independent against Jack Straw, the then Foreign Secretary.
Current MP: Jack Straw(Labour) born 1946, Essex. Educated at Brentwood School and the University of Leeds. Elected President of the NHS in 1969. Prior to his election he was a barrister specialising in criminal law, a researcher for ITV and, from 1974 to 1976 a special advisor to Barbara Castle. First elected in Blackburn in 1977. Served as Shadow Education Secretary under Neil Kinnock, Shadow Environment Secretary under John Smith and Shadow Home Secretary under Tony Blair. After Labour`s victory in 1997 Straw became Home Secretary. He subsequently served as Foreign Secretary between 2001 and 2006 when he was demoted to Leader of the House of Commons. He served a Gordon Brown`s campaign manager in the 2007 Labour leadership election and was subsequently appointed Secretary of State for Justice. In October 2006 he controversially criticised Muslim women wearing the veil (more information at They work for you)
Michael Law-Riding (Conservative) Blackburn with Darwen councillor. Jack Straw(Labour) born 1946, Essex. Educated at Brentwood School and the University of Leeds. Elected President of the NHS in 1969. Prior to his election he was a barrister specialising in criminal law, a researcher for ITV and, from 1974 to 1976 a special advisor to Barbara Castle. First elected in Blackburn in 1977. Served as Shadow Education Secretary under Neil Kinnock, Shadow Environment Secretary under John Smith and Shadow Home Secretary under Tony Blair. After Labour`s victory in 1997 Straw became Home Secretary. He subsequently served as Foreign Secretary between 2001 and 2006 when he was demoted to Leader of the House of Commons. He served a Gordon Brown`s campaign manager in the 2007 Labour leadership election and was subsequently appointed Secretary of State for Justice. In October 2006 he controversially criticised Muslim women wearing the veil (more information at They work for you)
Paul English (Liberal Democrat)
Bobby Anwar (UKIP) Robin Evans (BNP) Builder. Former Blackburn councillor.Janis Sharp (Independent) Mother of Gary McKinnon, who is fighting extradition to the USA in 2009 for computer hacking.Bushra Irfanullah (Bushra Irfan of Blackburn)Grace Astley (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 99905
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 29.5%
Over 60: 17.4%
Born outside UK: 13.7%
White: 70.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 27.5%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 57.4%
Muslim: 25.9%
Full time students: 3.7%
Graduates 16-74: 12.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 39.7%
Owner-Occupied: 67.1%
Social Housing: 22.2% (Council: 11.5%, Housing Ass.: 10.7%)
Privately Rented: 6.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 15.5%
Don’t stay up waiting for a shock in this seat – Straw has this well and truly sewn up – Labour by a country mile.
I last commented in February when I flagged up a potential Portillo moment here.
I am aware of 4 Hustings which have taken place so far (I have managed to attend 2) and the Lib Dem Candidate has been very, very strong.
Straw has actually been seen out canvassing (never been seen before) and is very worried. Information suggests he is down on his own canvass returns.
Muslim vote is going yellow in huge numbers. Disillissioned traditional Labour voters swinging to Lib Dems in large numbers. Conservatives being squeezed.
Add the Clegg factor.
I stand by my original comments
(put some figures in Electoral Calculus and see what happens)
Libdem vote was higher last time due to Iraq anger.
Libdem candidate might have done well in the hustings, but they’re to a very small audience.
Straw still has Lord Patel and the Council of Mosques behind him so no chance of an upset.
I disagree. This will be close and while Straw may hold on, it could be under 1000 votes. With a greater than uniform swing, and some tactical voting then it could be a recount.
Straw will win this easily
LAB HOLD
Jack Straw announced today that he is to stand down from the Labour Front Bench when the new leader is elected.
Strange that none of the idiotic posters above have come back to defend their predictions of a Lib Dem gain.
Straw won by almost 10,000 with Lib Dems 3rd on 15%.
That kind of nonsense ramping should warrant being banned from the site.
Few of them came back in any thread, except where they want to point score about seats where other parties did badly.
I think it’s rude, because other people have had the courtsey to go back over seats where their parties did badly, and try to find out why.
They’re bad losers basically
I predicted this,
I see I have over-estimated the Tories.
I thought I might be being too generous to Labour actually, with any significant increase,
but Straw did really quite well .
“I think this result had a somewhat distorted result last time, and also rather doubt it would have as large a Conservative increase as national – but still a substantial one.
May 2010
Most likely
*Lab 19,367 43.9% +1.9%
Con 12,617 28.6% +5.8%
LD 5,515 12.5% -8.1%
BNP 2,559 5.8%
UKIP 1,147 2.6%
Green 1,103 2.5%
Oths 1,809 4.1%
Total votes 44,117
Lab majority 6,750 15.3% (-3.9%)
Swing 2.0% from Lab to Con
Lab hold “
I think you’ll find he was elected President of the NUS (National Union of Students) NOT the NHS in 1969.