Two more negatives for Hemming – the kitten has now gone national and this can’t be good publicity. Conservatives voting for Hemming to keep Labour out are not going to be amused. Secondly the boundary Commission is proposing to move Sheldon into Solihull – which will please Lorely Burt.

It’s of course not certain but unless there is a 1982 type change in the political situation in mid term it’s going to be very difficult to stop Labour winning control here.

Even if the Tories have another good year like in 2011, I’d have thought it was almost certain Labour will gain control.

I suppose it was Sheldon that dod it for the Lib Dems. But I believe that was a particularly good performance in that ward where their group leader was standing. I’ll be interested to see if Sheldon becomes much closer next year without that personality factor at work.

Nevertheless, I’d be surprised if the Lib Dems did so well here in a general election where Labour were popular. The Lib Dems have consistantly underperformed their local election scores here for a very long time (they used to get 60%+ in most wards making up the seat and yet have only narrowly won it in general elections fairly recently.

LD 42.3% (-5.1%)
Lab 39.2% (+12.2%)
Con 8.0% (-4.7%)
Oth 10.5% (-2.4%)

Labour gained Acocks Green (easily) and South Yardley off the Lib Dems (much closer). The LDs held onto Stechford and Yardley North (fairly close, 6% lead) and Sheldon (much easier). Sheldon clearly gave the LDs their lead across this seat overall in 2011.