Birmingham Yardley
2010 Results:
Conservative: 7836 (19.18%)
Labour: 13160 (32.22%)
Liberal Democrat: 16162 (39.56%)
BNP: 2153 (5.27%)
UKIP: 1190 (2.91%)
Others: 349 (0.85%)
Majority: 3002 (7.34%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 15952 (41.5%)
Labour: 13831 (36%)
Conservative: 3656 (9.5%)
Other: 5004 (13%)
Majority: 2121 (5.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 2970 (10.1%)
Labour: 10976 (37.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 13648 (46.4%)
BNP: 1523 (5.2%)
UKIP: 314 (1.1%)
Majority: 2672 (9.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 3941 (13.1%)
Labour: 14085 (46.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 11507 (38.3%)
UKIP: 329 (1.1%)
Other: 151 (0.5%)
Majority: 2578 (8.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6736 (17.8%)
Labour: 17778 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 12463 (33%)
Referendum: 646 (1.7%)
Other: 164 (0.4%)
Majority: 5315 (14.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: John Hemming(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Meirion Jenkins (Conservative) Lynette Kelly (Labour) John Hemming(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)Graham Duffen (UKIP)Tanya Lumby (BNP) Paul Morris (National Front)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 100003
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 26.3%
Over 60: 20.5%
Born outside UK: 11.7%
White: 81.5%
Black: 3.7%
Asian: 11.8%
Mixed: 2.5%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 66.9%
Hindu: 1.3%
Muslim: 8.9%
Sikh: 1.6%
Full time students: 3%
Graduates 16-74: 10.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 41.2%
Owner-Occupied: 64.1%
Social Housing: 26% (Council: 21.9%, Housing Ass.: 4.1%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 29%
Percy
I didn’t say that the Conservatives would win them, my point was that they wouldn’t be in third or fourth place in them.
They do though have a better chance of winning them than many with smaller majorities.
Graham Duffen is the UKIP PPC
Labour’s new candidate is Lynette Kelly, a Coventry councillor
The 2010 election in Birmingham Yardley will be interesting. It is a shame, though, that not enough effort has been put in on the part of the Conservatives to try and win back the seat.
As a native of Birmingham Yardley, and a Conservative member to boot, I think it sad that Birmingham Yardley has been effectively been given up without a fight. I hold nothing against the Liberal Democrats who currently hold the seat, with the exception of their excessive gloating over their 2005 victory in local newsletters, but I do feel that, by allowing their votes in Birmingham Yardley to dwindle, it sometimes makes me feel ashamed to be a Birmingham Conservative.
It was nice to see John Hemming speaking up about the disgusting state of Birmingham’s Buses
They have better buses in my birth village of Saint-Crois de la Bonquiqui
It was, however I very much doubt that Saint whatever it is has better buses then Birmingham.
It was nice to see John Hemming doing much of anything truth me told…
Sidney Tierney Labour MP here 1974-79 has died aged 86.He was a former milkman and USDAW official
This seat IMO is not as good for the lib dems as it looks. If you look at the notionally figures the Lib Dems go from 46% to 40%.
Labour dont look such a threat but if the Tories were squeesed in 2005 to help Lib Dems win this seat in the type of change election we are going to sea, this could be a very dramatic result. It is not beyond the realms of possibility for this to become a three way marginal with Red, Blue and Yellow in contention.
The Lib Dems are definetly favourites for the seat but with votes shifting in funny ways it could produce a funny result. What if the tories who supported Hemming in 2005 go home or Iraq protest voters go from LD to Labour. There may well of course be voters going from Labour to LD and Labour to Tory. I really do think this might be more interesting than people think and in a national election could provide something unpredictable.
Martin Day’s post fails to take into account the fact that the Tories have done no work of any note in Yardley for about 15 years.
There is no way they will come any where near winning this seat.
Yes I agree. If Labour can’t win this it stays LD.
It was not so much 2005, more 1997, when our vote was truly squeezed.
The reality is that we appear to have lost this seat for ever and therefore our campaigning resources need to be prioritised in seats such as Edgbaston, Hall Green and Solihull.
LD Hold= 5,000 maj
“Be careful, because doing too much too quickly will drown out “popular discussions” from the “recent comments” bit on the left…”
LD hold maj 7000
I do wish the people predicying all the seats majority would back their guesses up with a bit of ‘theory’
I think to be fair in most of these threads we have several pages of thoery and discussions going back a number of years now. I don’t think its unreasonable at this stage for people to post a bare prediction of the winner and the rough majority. I intend to follow the example of Shaun Bennett and votedave when I have more time and have an internet connection at home again. I think on the majority of threads I will have commented in the past about any thinking that lies behind it.
To be fair to Shaun (which I seem to be doing a lot recently!) where he has predicted a result which in any way seems odd he has tried to explain it.
Lib Dem Hold
Maj 700
BNP have selected Tanya Lumby
LD maj 7,500
National Front: Paul Morris
Source: http://www.national-front.org.uk/election2010.htm
My prediction is a Lib Dem hold with an increased majority. I think the Tory vote will go up but they will remain in a poor third, and the Labour vote will go down.
The reason:
The Lib Dems have run a classic pavement politics campaign in the 4 years I’ve lived here. Every couple of months I get a leaflet from them, informing me what they’re doing (thank you for the 20mph speed limit on my estate for example).
Local elections have resulted in 12/12 Lib Dem Councillors for the new constituency.
National opinion polls show a clear swing to the Lib Dems consistently, compared to last time.
Hemming, love him or hate him, is a good publicist.
The Tory vote will go up. I met their candidate on Saturday in Acocks Green, and he’s been kind enough to stick something through my door. Pleasant chap. He’s still going to come third though.
I’m still waiting on Labours electoral communication.
The Lib Dems of cause played the old trick of splitting the electoral communication and delivering a different one to each person in our house, rather than 1 for the whole house. Even more publicity to them….
So Lib Dem hold. If any Labour activists were sensible, they’ve had gone next door to Hall Green to see if they can hold that.
Actually, that is probably why I haven’t seen any Lib Dem canvassers out in my patch yet…
And how come I get two minor racist parties standing but no Green?
“The Lib Dems have run a classic pavement politics campaign in the 4 years I’ve lived here”
They have been doing that for 20 years.
LD HOLD
A massive improvement in the Tory vote here, from a low base.
This happened in a lot of LD/Labour seats where the Tories had been squeezed out before. A clear case of tactical unwind. The most notable example was in Oldham East where the Conservatives are now back in contention but it also happened in Rochdale and Chesterfield probably costing the LDs those seats
If the Tories had performed as well as in Erdington and Yardley they would surely have won Edgbaston.
Erdington is now almost as good a Tory prospect than Edgbaston.
I suppose the Conservatives did better among C2′s than amongst ABC1′s in Birmingham. Perhaps the C2′s working in the private sector and most of the ABC1′s in the public sector?
Iain
A good point.
Birmingham and the West Midlands generally still has a large amount of manufacturing industry and this is the area that has suffered most from recession.
Perhaps the ABs of Edgbaston and Selly Oak are predominantly public sector workers in the hospitals, universities and government depts of Birmingham while the C2s of Northfield, Erdington and Yardley are primarily private sector workers.
Pete
Would the 1983-92 Northfield now be a better constituency for the Conservatives than the 1983-92 Edgbaston?
There would’t be alot in it (there isnt now of course). Very difficult to say how Bartley Green would have voted but it seems likely it is much more Labour in general elections than in locals and therefore Gisella Stewart most likely carried the ward and conceivably it could have provided her majority. Presumably if Northfield included Bartley Green rather than Kings Norton that would favour the Tories there
The Tory increase here does reveal a lot of tactical voting has been going on (however illogical).
Incidentally, I added up all the seats where the main parties scored under 12.5% of the vote.
This is the old level (up to 1983) where the deposit was set,
and it’s still quite an interesting measure of where there are very low votes.
Labour was below that level in 101 seats this time.
That is not as bad as in 1983 (119 seats) but a lot worse than in 1979 (just over 20).
The Conservatives were below that level in 44 seats this time.
That compares to 3 in 1979 and 5 in 1983.
Scotland was a large part of it,
but also about 4 English cities.
I haven’t totalled the LD figures yet – it may be lower than the other two because their vote looks a bit more spread in this election and they tended to still have about 15% in weak seats, but it may be more than the Tories.
To continue my post above,
The LDs were below 12.5% in 60 seats in this general election.
Far fewer than in 1997 and 2001.
In 1979 I think they were below this level in 303 seats.
To continue the points I’ve made above,
the big regional poll in autumn 2009 showing the Conservatives recovering well in seats where they were squeezed in third place turned out to be pretty accurate in that regard.
(It will be interesting to see if Labour regains a number of second places as Lab/LD voters dislike the LDs in coalition).
The big Conservative increase had similarities with those in Chesterfield and Rochdale.
Yet here the LibDems increased their majority.
Any thoughts as to why?
A difference in the calibre of LibDem and LAbour candidates perhaps?
The large increase in the Conservative vote in some LibDem–Labour marginals may have been in part the result of Cameron’s “Vote Clegg, get Brown” message. Ironic given post-election developments….
John Hemming is still relying on a lot of Tory tactical votes in this seat. The Tories used to regularly win over 40% here until 1992 of course. It’ll be interesting to see how those voters react to the coalition.
That’s almost 20 years ago though Andy. I suspect there has been appreciable demographic change in that time
I wonder if the Conservatives would have ever won this seat on these boundaries. Their largest majority was 2,865 in 1983 and this could well have been wiped out by the areas that have been added in 2010 from Sparkbrook & Small Heath which mostly involves the old Foxhollies ward but also parts of Small Heath. It seems very likely that this would have been enough to prevent a Tory victory in 1959, 1970 and 1979 and would certainly have been very close in the 1980s
not a bad result for Labour here last time around. One would suspect the the liberals will be worrying in Yardley.
Pete Whitehead is right that the present boundaries are less favourable for the Conservatives than those when they won in the 1980s. It now consists of 4 wards rather than 3 and the areas added (Stechford, SE Small Heath, Greet, and Acocks Green) are less Conservative than the core area, with the exception of Acocks Green which is much the same.
This is a classic example however of a seat that the Liberals will have to worry about next time. It is a rare example of local government strength extending to a national level, and John Hemming failed to increase his majority last time because of Conservative rebound. Estelle Morris won it previously despite the Liberals holding all the local government seats.
It will be very intersting to see whether there is a backlash in Birmingham Council local elections. Labour will certainly retake Birmingham Council in 2012, and at least two of the wards in this seat I believe will be vulnerable.
The MP’s wife is apparently facing charges of theft of a kitten.
Derek Coombs won this seat for the Conservatives by 120 votes in 1970. He is currently chairman of Prospect Magazine according to Wikipedia.
I have been following the kitten story with huge amusement. The Birmingham Post website will keep you up to date. Hemming, wife, mistress and kitten all live in Moseley (Hall Green), not Yardley, by the way
Local Election Results for 2011 (with change on 2010, though that did have a general election size turnout so perhaps not 100% comparable!)
LD 42.3% (-5.1%)
Lab 39.2% (+12.2%)
Con 8.0% (-4.7%)
Oth 10.5% (-2.4%)
Labour gained Acocks Green (easily) and South Yardley off the Lib Dems (much closer). The LDs held onto Stechford and Yardley North (fairly close, 6% lead) and Sheldon (much easier). Sheldon clearly gave the LDs their lead across this seat overall in 2011.
That surprises me, David. This seat is one of those I personally already have down as a clear Labour re-gain next time unless the Tory vote can be depressed to the Lib Dems advantage…which I suppose is quite likely given that it is 10% higher now than before 2010.
I suppose it was Sheldon that dod it for the Lib Dems. But I believe that was a particularly good performance in that ward where their group leader was standing. I’ll be interested to see if Sheldon becomes much closer next year without that personality factor at work.
Nevertheless, I’d be surprised if the Lib Dems did so well here in a general election where Labour were popular. The Lib Dems have consistantly underperformed their local election scores here for a very long time (they used to get 60%+ in most wards making up the seat and yet have only narrowly won it in general elections fairly recently.
Tories are continuing to vote tactically in local elections it seems here.
I’m assuming this area will be quite pivotal in the 2012 local elections, Labour need to gain 6 seats across Birmingham to take overall control. This seat could end up contributing 3 of them if they repeat the trick in Acocks Green and South Yardley and go one better and close the gap in Stechford. Sheldon might still be a tough nut to crack, though not knowing the area I dont know whether there is a specific reason for this, perhaps its the part of the seat most likely to favour what the coalition government is doing given its demographics? (that’s a question, not a statement!). If Labour do top the local poll here in 2012 that will presumably be the first time in ages. It will also be interesting to see what the September Boundary changes are for this area, this could just as critical for the Lib Dem chances as their local losses as I believe the urban West Midlands are due to shed around 3 seats.
Surely Labour are almost certain to take overall control next year, with 2008 seats up (a better result for them than even 2007).
Even if the Tories have another good year like in 2011, I’d have thought it was almost certain Labour will gain control.
a better result for Tories in 2008 than 2007.
It’s of course not certain but unless there is a 1982 type change in the political situation in mid term it’s going to be very difficult to stop Labour winning control here.
Yes Labour don’t need to win any of the seats in this constituency to take control next year
Labour are certain to take control of Birmingham Council next year. They only need 14/40 seats. Looking back on this thread I was right a year ago to predict that the Liberals would lose 2 wards in Yardley at the 2011 council elections.
Two more negatives for Hemming – the kitten has now gone national and this can’t be good publicity. Conservatives voting for Hemming to keep Labour out are not going to be amused. Secondly the boundary Commission is proposing to move Sheldon into Solihull – which will please Lorely Burt.