Birmingham Yardley
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 15952 (41.5%)
Labour: 13831 (36%)
Conservative: 3656 (9.5%)
Other: 5004 (13%)
Majority: 2121 (5.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 2970 (10.1%)
Labour: 10976 (37.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 13648 (46.4%)
BNP: 1523 (5.2%)
UKIP: 314 (1.1%)
Majority: 2672 (9.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 3941 (13.1%)
Labour: 14085 (46.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 11507 (38.3%)
UKIP: 329 (1.1%)
Other: 151 (0.5%)
Majority: 2578 (8.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6736 (17.8%)
Labour: 17778 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 12463 (33%)
Referendum: 646 (1.7%)
Other: 164 (0.4%)
Majority: 5315 (14.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: John Hemming(Lib Dem) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Meirion Jenkins (Conservative) Lynette Kelly (Labour) Graham Duffen (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 100003
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 26.3%
Over 60: 20.5%
Born outside UK: 11.7%
White: 81.5%
Black: 3.7%
Asian: 11.8%
Mixed: 2.5%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 66.9%
Hindu: 1.3%
Muslim: 8.9%
Sikh: 1.6%
Full time students: 3%
Graduates 16-74: 10.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 41.2%
Owner-Occupied: 64.1%
Social Housing: 26% (Council: 21.9%, Housing Ass.: 4.1%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 29%
The size of the Tory vote in 2005 is extraordinary…
2970
….given that this was a Tory seat until 1992.
It just goes to show that seats like Inverness or Aberdeen South can actually have a much larger potential Tory vote than is evident, hidden by anti-Labour tacticle voting.
There does seem to be a pattern in these two adjacent seats of Birmingham Yardley and Solihull of the LDs almost decimating the Tory vote: from about 40% to 10% in Yardley and from 61% to 40% in Solihull. If I was in Conservative Central Office I might even launch an inquiry into how it happened to stop it happening in the future.
The pattern of decimation appears to exist across a whole swathe of Birmingham parliamentary seats. In 1992 the Conservatives were first or second in all of the parliamentary seats. In 1997 they were second in all but one (Birmingham Yardley). However by 2005 the Birmingham Conservatives were reduced to third or fourth place in half of the parliamentary seats. The position is likely to be little different at the next election with the exception of Birmingham Edgbaston.
“Does anyone know what the local elections results here were in 1992?”
The Conservatives won 30% in each of the three wards with the LDs winning just over 50% in Sheldon and Yardley and 40% in Acocks Green which they gained from Labour that year (the last Labour seat in this constituency I think)
LD 10987 47.9%
Con 6988 30.5%
Lab 4662 20.3%
Oth 283 1.2%
I remember being very frustrated by the excellent local election results in Birmingham in May 1992.
I felt we’d missed an opportunity, with a bit more effort, for Conservatives to hold the seats lost in the General Election in April, or to gain control of the council if it was an all out.
I remember just assuming that a few gains in 1994 against 1990 would give that chance, but didn’t think about what was to come.
The change from April to May in Yardley therefore was:
LD +17.7%
C – 4.0%
Lab – 14.6%
Oth +0.7%
I don’t think the Tories can come back here, that would be Gloy Plopwell mode.
“However by 2005 the Birmingham Conservatives were reduced to third or fourth place in half of the parliamentary seats. The position is likely to be little different at the next election with the exception of Birmingham Edgbaston.”
And Birmingham Northfield.
And Birmingham Selly Oak.
And Birmingham Erdington.
It’s actually to the Conservatives advantage to have their vote concentrated in fewer constituencies.
Richard – Are you sure about the three seats you mention. According to this site all of the seats you mention are outside of the top 180 target seats for the Conservatives at the next general election.
Percy
I didn’t say that the Conservatives would win them, my point was that they wouldn’t be in third or fourth place in them.
They do though have a better chance of winning them than many with smaller majorities.
Graham Duffen is the UKIP PPC
Labour’s new candidate is Lynette Kelly, a Coventry councillor
The 2010 election in Birmingham Yardley will be interesting. It is a shame, though, that not enough effort has been put in on the part of the Conservatives to try and win back the seat.
As a native of Birmingham Yardley, and a Conservative member to boot, I think it sad that Birmingham Yardley has been effectively been given up without a fight. I hold nothing against the Liberal Democrats who currently hold the seat, with the exception of their excessive gloating over their 2005 victory in local newsletters, but I do feel that, by allowing their votes in Birmingham Yardley to dwindle, it sometimes makes me feel ashamed to be a Birmingham Conservative.
It was nice to see John Hemming speaking up about the disgusting state of Birmingham’s Buses
They have better buses in my birth village of Saint-Crois de la Bonquiqui