Birmingham Yardley
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 15952 (41.5%)
Labour: 13831 (36%)
Conservative: 3656 (9.5%)
Other: 5004 (13%)
Majority: 2121 (5.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 2970 (10.1%)
Labour: 10976 (37.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 13648 (46.4%)
BNP: 1523 (5.2%)
UKIP: 314 (1.1%)
Majority: 2672 (9.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 3941 (13.1%)
Labour: 14085 (46.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 11507 (38.3%)
UKIP: 329 (1.1%)
Other: 151 (0.5%)
Majority: 2578 (8.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6736 (17.8%)
Labour: 17778 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 12463 (33%)
Referendum: 646 (1.7%)
Other: 164 (0.4%)
Majority: 5315 (14.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: John Hemming(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Meirion Jenkins (Conservative) Lynette Kelly (Labour) John Hemming(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)Graham Duffen (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 100003
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 26.3%
Over 60: 20.5%
Born outside UK: 11.7%
White: 81.5%
Black: 3.7%
Asian: 11.8%
Mixed: 2.5%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 66.9%
Hindu: 1.3%
Muslim: 8.9%
Sikh: 1.6%
Full time students: 3%
Graduates 16-74: 10.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 41.2%
Owner-Occupied: 64.1%
Social Housing: 26% (Council: 21.9%, Housing Ass.: 4.1%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 29%
It was, however I very much doubt that Saint whatever it is has better buses then Birmingham.
It was nice to see John Hemming doing much of anything truth me told…
Sidney Tierney Labour MP here 1974-79 has died aged 86.He was a former milkman and USDAW official
This seat IMO is not as good for the lib dems as it looks. If you look at the notionally figures the Lib Dems go from 46% to 40%.
Labour dont look such a threat but if the Tories were squeesed in 2005 to help Lib Dems win this seat in the type of change election we are going to sea, this could be a very dramatic result. It is not beyond the realms of possibility for this to become a three way marginal with Red, Blue and Yellow in contention.
The Lib Dems are definetly favourites for the seat but with votes shifting in funny ways it could produce a funny result. What if the tories who supported Hemming in 2005 go home or Iraq protest voters go from LD to Labour. There may well of course be voters going from Labour to LD and Labour to Tory. I really do think this might be more interesting than people think and in a national election could provide something unpredictable.