This could have been enough to edge up turnout.
In the Midlands I saw union sponsored posters – but none in the South East.

The weak organisation of many local parties of all colours did not help their causes – Labour in the south and the Conservatives further north.

This may explain differences between recent local election with low turnout and the General Election results in selected seats.

In Birmingham many of them vote Conservative at local elections (particularly in Bartley Green). Having lived in many places, I believe there is more split voting in Birmingham than anywhere else I have lived. Indeed I split my own votes…..

But I agree predicting Tory wins from local elections in Birmingham (and other parts of the core West Midlands) is very risky indeed,
and I was over confident about some seats.

The Tories underperformed in 1992 vs 1991 aswell
even 1987 against the local elections in May.

For some reason, a lot of Labour voters don’t vote in the council elections in the W Midlands.

South Birmingham is indeed volatile but rather less so at general elections than local elections. Both Billesley and Brandwood were won by Labour at the simultaneous local elections. Selly Oak ward itself is now a student ghetto like Headingly in Leeds, and votes accordingly. I don’t think £7000 tuition fees are going to recommend the Conservatives somehow.

Even in Bournville the Kraft takeover means there is no feelgood factor. It was always the case that despite the boundary changes the Conservatives had a much better chance in Northfield. Short of armageddon they are never going to win this seat again.