Comments on: Birmingham Selly Oak

By: Matt

Matt — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 21:32:49 +0000

UKIP have selected Jeffrey Burgess here

By: Matt

Matt — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 12:10:29 +0000

The Greens appear to have a new candidate here, in James Burn

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 00:08:12 +0000

The October 1974 figures for Birmingham Northfield were not so disimilar to those for 2005:

1974 Lab 52.1% Con 32.0% Lib 14.9% Lab maj 20.1%
2005 Lab 49.9% Con 29.1% Lib 13.3% Lab maj 20.7%

The result in Erdington in 1974 w as almost identical and both seats required a swing of just over 10%. In Northfield this was achieved and in Erdington the Tories fell just short. Again the swing required to gain Northfield is just over 10% but in Erdington it is 15%

By: Richard

Richard — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 22:40:50 +0000

Or perhaps Birmingham Northfield will be the 2010 equivalent of Birmingham Northfield in 1979.

Though as Birmingham Northfield had never been won before 1979 by the Conservatives the equivalent might now be Birmingham Erdington.

By: Peter Crerar

Peter Crerar — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 22:27:51 +0000

This could perhaps be the 2010 equivalent of Birmingham Northfield in 1979.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 22:11:46 +0000

I think this seat has changed politically, and is now just within the Tories’ grasp.
Probably very close if they do get it though.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 10:39:59 +0000

I dont know why you think that. There are large numbers of swing voters in the kind of middle income suburban areas which make up the majority of this seat (Kings Norton, Brandwood and Billeslely). Moreover the European elections showed that there is still a larger potential Tory vote in Selly Oak itself than local elections would suggest, because they are squeezed by the LDs there in local elections.
The Tory share has risen very substantially in local elections in this area since the last general election:

2004 – 29.5% lead over Labour – 0.8%
2006 – 34.0% lead over Labour – 5.3%
2007 – 37.9% lead over Labour – 7.5%
2008 – 43.2% lead over Labour – 17.0%

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 10:22:27 +0000

If the Tories can just hold their vote fairly steady and hope for a big crumbling of Labour support they might get closer than expected to winning the seat. I don’t think a big increase in the Tory vote itself is very likely.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 09:03:44 +0000

Amazingly, thanks to the boundary changes, Selly Oak is now amongst the top two or three Tory prospects in Birmingham. I’m sure not many people would have imagined that in those dark days of 1997.

By: polska

polska — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 20:42:27 +0000

I’ve just moved to this constituency, so you can add on one more vote for the Tories in your predictions