Birmingham Selly Oak
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14468 (31.07%)
Labour: 17950 (38.55%)
Liberal Democrat: 10371 (22.27%)
BNP: 1820 (3.91%)
UKIP: 1131 (2.43%)
Green: 664 (1.43%)
Christian: 159 (0.34%)
Majority: 3482 (7.48%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20658 (48.4%)
Conservative: 12304 (28.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7792 (18.3%)
Other: 1936 (4.5%)
Majority: 8354 (19.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10375 (24.9%)
Labour: 19226 (46.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9591 (23%)
Green: 1581 (3.8%)
UKIP: 967 (2.3%)
Majority: 8851 (21.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10676 (26.6%)
Labour: 21015 (52.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6532 (16.3%)
UKIP: 568 (1.4%)
Green: 1309 (3.3%)
Majority: 10339 (25.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14033 (27.8%)
Labour: 28121 (55.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6121 (12.1%)
Referendum: 1520 (3%)
Other: 755 (1.5%)
Majority: 14088 (27.9%)
Boundary changes: Major changes. The new Selly Oak loses Kings Norton and parts of Moseley and instead gains Billesley and Bournville. This means the new seat is actually largely made up of the former seat of Birmingham Hall Green.
Profile:
Current MP: Steve McCabe (Labour) born 1955, Port Glasgow. Educated at Moray House College. Social worker. Birmingham councillor 1990-1998. MP for Birmingham Hall Green since 1997. Government whip since 2006.
Nigel Dawkins (Conservative) Software consultant. Birmingham city councillor since 2000. In 2007 led a successful campaign against a Tesco application to sell alcohol in the traditionally dry area of Bournville.Steve McCabe (Labour) born 1955, Port Glasgow. Educated at Moray House College. Social worker. Birmingham councillor 1990-1998. MP for Birmingham Hall Green since 1997. Government whip since 2006.
David Radcliffe (Liberal Democrat) born 1973. Educated at UMIST. Birmingham councillor since 2004. Contested Corby 2005.
James Burn (Green) Jeff Burgess (UKIP) Lynette Orton (BNP) Samuel Leeds (Christian Party) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97296
Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%
Under 18: 22.1%
Over 60: 19.9%
Born outside UK: 10.6%
White: 87.3%
Black: 2.9%
Asian: 6.1%
Mixed: 2.5%
Other: 1.3%
Christian: 67.5%
Hindu: 1.4%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 3.5%
Sikh: 1.3%
Full time students: 13.1%
Graduates 16-74: 21.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.6%
Owner-Occupied: 61.4%
Social Housing: 24.6% (Council: 17.7%, Housing Ass.: 6.9%)
Privately Rented: 10.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 19.3%
Lab Hold= 1,500 maj
Labour MP Lynne Jones has effectively told voters in Birmingham Hall Green to vote for Respect candidate Salma Yaqoob instead of Labour candidate Roger Godsiff.
(See report in Birmingham Post for example).
I expect a Tory majority of about 5,000. Majority of 3,000 in Bournville, 750 in Brandwood, 1,150 in Billesley and 100 over Labour in Selly Oak.
Ridiculous. That would be something like a 15% swing.
Shaun’s view is quite plausible.
Well, there was a 20% swing to the Conservatives in the Euro Elections in certain wards – Stoneydelph in Tamworth springs to mind.
I was saying in another post that average national swing doesn’t necessarily mean that this will be uniform across the country.
Quite true, but in this part of Birmingham there’s a long history of the Tories doing very well in council elections and still coming in well behind Labour at the general. Nothing has convinced me that the Tories can win Selly Oak or Northfield based on the national picture as of today.
And Euro election results are completely meaningless.
Just watch after the election. To suggest my prediction represents a 15% swing is misleading because boundary changes assist the Tories significantly.
It’s not misleading at all. Look at the notional figures, which clearly show it would take a swing of nearly 10% for the Tories to win here by 1 vote, then add the further 5% swing which would be needed to get the majority up to 5,000. The statement that your prediction would entail a swing of 15% may actually understate it if anything depending on turnout.
The notional figures are misleading because they make broad inaccurate extrapolations from the old seats.
The truth is that parts of old Selly Oak which have moved into Northfield and Hall Green are the places where Lynne Jones had most strength (she was a councillor in Kings Norton and Tories come third in Moseley at local level). The areas that have been taken in from Hall Green are Billesley & Brandwood which are the areas where Tories have greatest strength. We got spanking majorities in both at local level in 2008 and have won there in 2006, 2007 and 2008.
NB – McCabe’s literature is risible.
On the face of it ,a safe Labour seat but given its location in the very volatile South Birmingham worth watching.
The old Selly Oak was Conservative till Oct 74 and again from 79 -92. The areas which contributed most to the long term swing to Labour were however the two which leave the seat – Moseley and Kings Norton. Of the remaining two wards Bournville is Conservative -save in a dreadful year. Selly Oak ward is at a local level narrowly held by the Lib Dems with Labour in 2nd place. There remains however some residual Conservative vote – some of the residential areas are classier than the shops on the A38!
I disagree with Prague Tory that Billesley and Brandwood were the best Conservative areas in the old Hall Green. Surely the tower blocks at Highters Heath (Billesley ward) were better for Labour in a parliamentary election than the heavily owner occupied Hall Green ward. Both wards are however very volatile – and have recently been Conservative.
There may be a disconnect between the local election results and the parliamentary votes but given the large swings which have previously characterised the area and 3 out of 4 wards currently Conservative ,this could be a tighter call for Labour than the notional result suggests.
C gain maj 200
Billesley is a funny ward. The deprived area that people think of as Billesley (Chinn Brook Road / Yardley Wood Road / School Road/ Trittiford Road) doesn’t dominate the ward. Tories can expect very heavy voting from classic suburban areas like the areas around Westridge Road, Hollie Lucas Rd and south of Maypole Road.
Again I think this is a tall order for the Tories. Possible, but not probable in my opinion.
Lab Hold
Maj 2400
BNP have selected Lynette Orton
Con maj 250
Former MP Lynne Jones has defected to Respect.
Just been round to a friends house here and have seen the largest pile of election literature i’ve ever seem. Maybe 5 Con 8-9 Lib dem and 3 Labour leaflets.
Have to say though that some of the Lib Dem ones were the poorest quality I have seen ever with bar charts showing only libs or labs can win by cherry picking their best ward resut and then claiming it as the ‘last election’. In fact there were three or four misleading statements.
Labour and Con ones were quite positive and focussed on local issues mainly.
I’d guess Labour hold here mainly due to the lib dems tactics.
Lots of Liberal Democrat posters up around here, especially in the student areas!
LAB HOLD
Which seats have included Bournville ward? It must have been in the multi-seat Birmingham constituency until 1885, not sure about after then
It wouldn’t have been because it wasn’t part of Birmingham then – not least because it didn’t exist, but the area then was in Worcestershire and part of the Worcestershire East constituency. From 1918 to 1955 it was in Kings Norton and from 1955-74 in Northfield. Selly Oak since 1974.
Astonishing how silent this thread is after the election, when the Conservatives were so gung ho before the election. The 4.8% swing was less than average,and in line with results in Northfield, Edgbaston and Hall Green.
South Birmingham is indeed volatile but rather less so at general elections than local elections. Both Billesley and Brandwood were won by Labour at the simultaneous local elections. Selly Oak ward itself is now a student ghetto like Headingly in Leeds, and votes accordingly. I don’t think £7000 tuition fees are going to recommend the Conservatives somehow.
Even in Bournville the Kraft takeover means there is no feelgood factor. It was always the case that despite the boundary changes the Conservatives had a much better chance in Northfield. Short of armageddon they are never going to win this seat again.
I’d have thought it was worth the Tories trying again here (depending on how it’s drawn).
It’s still a marginal seat.
But I agree predicting Tory wins from local elections in Birmingham (and other parts of the core West Midlands) is very risky indeed,
and I was over confident about some seats.
The Tories underperformed in 1992 vs 1991 aswell
even 1987 against the local elections in May.
For some reason, a lot of Labour voters don’t vote in the council elections in the W Midlands.
Joe James a lot of Labour voters don’t vote in council elections right across the country.
In Birmingham many of them vote Conservative at local elections (particularly in Bartley Green). Having lived in many places, I believe there is more split voting in Birmingham than anywhere else I have lived. Indeed I split my own votes…..
What’s your view of why they do this split voting John?
What about Liverpool John? Ticket-splitting on a grand scale (although Labour’s local performances are improving sharply).
My sense is that the trade unions played a very strong below the radar campaign in many seats. Targetting public sector workers to turn out.
This could have been enough to edge up turnout.
In the Midlands I saw union sponsored posters – but none in the South East.
The weak organisation of many local parties of all colours did not help their causes – Labour in the south and the Conservatives further north.
This may explain differences between recent local election with low turnout and the General Election results in selected seats.
PCC elections in this constituency
Lab 41.04%
Con 16.37%
Ind Hannon 17.6%
UKIP 5.84%
Ind Webley 8.49%
Ind Rumble 6%
LD 4.67%
Second preferences: Lab 60.81% Con 39.19%
STAGE II Totals:
Lab 69.57% Con 30.43%