Birmingham Selly Oak
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20658 (48.4%)
Conservative: 12304 (28.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7792 (18.3%)
Other: 1936 (4.5%)
Majority: 8354 (19.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10375 (24.9%)
Labour: 19226 (46.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9591 (23%)
Green: 1581 (3.8%)
UKIP: 967 (2.3%)
Majority: 8851 (21.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10676 (26.6%)
Labour: 21015 (52.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6532 (16.3%)
UKIP: 568 (1.4%)
Green: 1309 (3.3%)
Majority: 10339 (25.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14033 (27.8%)
Labour: 28121 (55.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6121 (12.1%)
Referendum: 1520 (3%)
Other: 755 (1.5%)
Majority: 14088 (27.9%)
Boundary changes: Major changes. The new Selly Oak loses Kings Norton and parts of Moseley and instead gains Billesley and Bournville. This means the new seat is actually largely made up of the former seat of Birmingham Hall Green.
Profile: Traditionally Selly Oak was a marginal seat between the Conservatives and Labour, but demographic and boundary changes mean the new seat has much in common with the old Birmingham Hall Green and it would now take a large swing for the Conservatives to be in contention. The seat contains four wards - the largely council estate Billesley, including the cluster of tower blocks at Highter`s Heath; Bournville, best known for its chocolate factory and the planned community around it; Brandwood and Selly Oak, once industrial terraced housing which is now largely student accommodation for the University of Birmingham.
The seat did look set to be the scene of a selection battle between Lynne Jones and Stephen McCabe, but with the announcement of Jones`s retirement it is expected to be contested by McCabe.
Current MP: Lynne Jones (Labour) born 1951, Birmingham. Educated at Bartley Green Grammar and the University of Birmingham. Former biochemist, housing association manager and Birmingham City Councillor. First elected as MP for Birmingham Selly Oak in 1992. Jones is left-wing member of the Socialist Campaign group and a regular backbench rebel against the Blair government. In January 2007 she announced her intention to step down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Nigel Dawkins (Conservative) Software consultant. Birmingham city councillor since 2000. In 2007 led a successful campaign against a Tesco application to sell alcohol in the traditionally dry area of Bournville.
Steve McCabe (Labour) born 1955, Port Glasgow. Educated at Moray House College. Social worker. Birmingham councillor 1990-1998. MP for Birmingham Hall Green since 1997. Government whip since 2006.
David Radcliffe (Liberal Democrat) born 1973. Educated at UMIST. Birmingham councillor since 2004. Contested Corby 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97296
Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%
Under 18: 22.1%
Over 60: 19.9%
Born outside UK: 10.6%
White: 87.3%
Black: 2.9%
Asian: 6.1%
Mixed: 2.5%
Other: 1.3%
Christian: 67.5%
Hindu: 1.4%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 3.5%
Sikh: 1.3%
Full time students: 13.1%
Graduates 16-74: 21.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.6%
Owner-Occupied: 61.4%
Social Housing: 24.6% (Council: 17.7%, Housing Ass.: 6.9%)
Privately Rented: 10.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 19.3%
85 Responses
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It would be great to see a 70% turnout at the next election.
May 23rd, 2008 at 4:21 pmBradford South
The 2005 result indicated to me that the long-term swing to Labour here since the 1970s gradually continues and that a Tory gain is unlikely. I still think the majority could be halved next time though.
May 23rd, 2008 at 6:06 pmTwickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
A second Tory gain would probably have to be Northfield, but I’m intrigued by the results in Erdington. I don’t want to get too Gloy Plopwell, as Birmingham can give good Tory local election results all of a sudden that don’t transfer to generals - more than most places.
I haven’t totalled the votes up in Selly Oak yet.
I agree with Andy on turnout - hopefully it will rise substantially, and I think it has been talked down too much by people who think the slump in 2001 is near permanent. I don’t accept that because it has slowly improved each year from 2003.
May 23rd, 2008 at 10:36 pmBut I think we’re probably looking at something in the high 60s.
Ruislip Northwood
Con 10286 43.2 %
Lab 6239 26.2 %
LD 3426 14.4 %
G 2017 8.5 %
BNP 1735 7.3 %
IND 110 0.5 %
Change from 2004
May 24th, 2008 at 12:23 amCon + 13.7
Lab -2.5
LD -4.9
Grn -2.6
BNP + 1.7
Twickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
Possible, but still not the most likely.
Probably the LD vote will hold to about 12% and Labour hold on by about 6%.
2010
Con 41.5% +12.7%
August 2nd, 2008 at 8:42 pmLab 40.3% -8.1%
LD 8.4% -9.9%
Grn 4.2% +0.3% Est
BNP 3.9%
UKIP 1.7%
Bournemouth West
This is a tricky one to call, but I at the moment I would say that Labour may just hold on - something like;
Labour 18000
August 3rd, 2008 at 3:26 pmCons 17500
Lib Dem 6000
BNP 2000
Others 2000
I think Matt and I broadly agree - when I worked out my possible result, one could see it was a credible possibility, not a most likely - which is Labour to hold on fairly narrowly.
But the 13.7% increase since the 2004 results is very encouraging for the Conservatives, and indicates something is going right here in a way it hasn’t for a very long time.
August 3rd, 2008 at 6:10 pmThe large student population could decide this seat and the result could all come down to the month in which the election is called. If as people say the result is too close to call, politically savvy students are not above switching their registration to vote in a marginal constituency.
Unless they are on holiday of course….
Also I doubt the Lib Dem vote will drop 10 points in this constituency even with a squeeze.
August 4th, 2008 at 10:39 amI agree that Labour could well just squeak in here next time, although on the new boundaries this is one of the three most possible Tory gains in Birmingham (after Edgbaston and Northfield).
August 4th, 2008 at 11:00 amMy prediction
Labour hold by less than 1000
August 17th, 2008 at 1:19 pmPages: « 1 … 2 3 4 5 [6] Show All