Birmingham Selly Oak
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20658 (48.4%)
Conservative: 12304 (28.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7792 (18.3%)
Other: 1936 (4.5%)
Majority: 8354 (19.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10375 (24.9%)
Labour: 19226 (46.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9591 (23%)
Green: 1581 (3.8%)
UKIP: 967 (2.3%)
Majority: 8851 (21.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10676 (26.6%)
Labour: 21015 (52.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6532 (16.3%)
UKIP: 568 (1.4%)
Green: 1309 (3.3%)
Majority: 10339 (25.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14033 (27.8%)
Labour: 28121 (55.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6121 (12.1%)
Referendum: 1520 (3%)
Other: 755 (1.5%)
Majority: 14088 (27.9%)
Boundary changes: Major changes. The new Selly Oak loses Kings Norton and parts of Moseley and instead gains Billesley and Bournville. This means the new seat is actually largely made up of the former seat of Birmingham Hall Green.
Profile:
Current MP: Lynne Jones(Labour) born 1951, Birmingham. Educated at Bartley Green Grammar and the University of Birmingham. Former biochemist, housing association manager and Birmingham City Councillor. First elected as MP for Birmingham Selly Oak in 1992. Jones is left-wing member of the Socialist Campaign group and a regular backbench rebel against the Blair government. In January 2007 she announced her intention to step down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Nigel Dawkins (Conservative) Software consultant. Birmingham city councillor since 2000. In 2007 led a successful campaign against a Tesco application to sell alcohol in the traditionally dry area of Bournville.
Steve McCabe (Labour) born 1955, Port Glasgow. Educated at Moray House College. Social worker. Birmingham councillor 1990-1998. MP for Birmingham Hall Green since 1997. Government whip since 2006.
David Radcliffe (Liberal Democrat) born 1973. Educated at UMIST. Birmingham councillor since 2004. Contested Corby 2005.
Jeffrey Burgess (UKIP) James Burn (Green)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97296
Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%
Under 18: 22.1%
Over 60: 19.9%
Born outside UK: 10.6%
White: 87.3%
Black: 2.9%
Asian: 6.1%
Mixed: 2.5%
Other: 1.3%
Christian: 67.5%
Hindu: 1.4%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 3.5%
Sikh: 1.3%
Full time students: 13.1%
Graduates 16-74: 21.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.6%
Owner-Occupied: 61.4%
Social Housing: 24.6% (Council: 17.7%, Housing Ass.: 6.9%)
Privately Rented: 10.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 19.3%
I’ve just moved to this constituency, so you can add on one more vote for the Tories in your predictions
Amazingly, thanks to the boundary changes, Selly Oak is now amongst the top two or three Tory prospects in Birmingham. I’m sure not many people would have imagined that in those dark days of 1997.
If the Tories can just hold their vote fairly steady and hope for a big crumbling of Labour support they might get closer than expected to winning the seat. I don’t think a big increase in the Tory vote itself is very likely.
I dont know why you think that. There are large numbers of swing voters in the kind of middle income suburban areas which make up the majority of this seat (Kings Norton, Brandwood and Billeslely). Moreover the European elections showed that there is still a larger potential Tory vote in Selly Oak itself than local elections would suggest, because they are squeezed by the LDs there in local elections.
The Tory share has risen very substantially in local elections in this area since the last general election:
2004 – 29.5% lead over Labour – 0.8%
2006 – 34.0% lead over Labour – 5.3%
2007 – 37.9% lead over Labour – 7.5%
2008 – 43.2% lead over Labour – 17.0%
I think this seat has changed politically, and is now just within the Tories’ grasp.
Probably very close if they do get it though.
This could perhaps be the 2010 equivalent of Birmingham Northfield in 1979.
Or perhaps Birmingham Northfield will be the 2010 equivalent of Birmingham Northfield in 1979.
Though as Birmingham Northfield had never been won before 1979 by the Conservatives the equivalent might now be Birmingham Erdington.
The October 1974 figures for Birmingham Northfield were not so disimilar to those for 2005:
1974 Lab 52.1% Con 32.0% Lib 14.9% Lab maj 20.1%
2005 Lab 49.9% Con 29.1% Lib 13.3% Lab maj 20.7%
The result in Erdington in 1974 w as almost identical and both seats required a swing of just over 10%. In Northfield this was achieved and in Erdington the Tories fell just short. Again the swing required to gain Northfield is just over 10% but in Erdington it is 15%
The Greens appear to have a new candidate here, in James Burn
UKIP have selected Jeffrey Burgess here