Birmingham Perry Barr
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17291 (46.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 9702 (26.1%)
Conservative: 6578 (17.7%)
Other: 3563 (9.6%)
Majority: 7589 (20.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6513 (16.7%)
Labour: 18269 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 10321 (26.5%)
UKIP: 745 (1.9%)
Other: 3063 (7.9%)
Majority: 7948 (20.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8662 (23.1%)
Labour: 17415 (46.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8566 (22.9%)
UKIP: 352 (0.9%)
Other: 2422 (6.5%)
Majority: 8753 (23.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9964 (21.7%)
Labour: 28921 (63%)
Liberal Democrat: 4523 (9.9%)
Referendum: 843 (1.8%)
Other: 1636 (3.6%)
Majority: 18957 (41.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Khalid Mahmood(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: William Norton (Conservative) Khalid Mahmood(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Karen Hamilton (Liberal Democrat) Birmingham councillor since 2004.Melvin Ward (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 100476
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 27.2%
Over 60: 17.8%
Born outside UK: 23.6%
White: 51.1%
Black: 12.7%
Asian: 31.9%
Mixed: 2.9%
Other: 1.4%
Christian: 51.5%
Hindu: 5.1%
Muslim: 14.8%
Sikh: 10.1%
Full time students: 8.1%
Graduates 16-74: 14%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.1%
Owner-Occupied: 68%
Social Housing: 20.1% (Council: 9.6%, Housing Ass.: 10.5%)
Privately Rented: 7.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 22.8%
Portillo in a Sunday Times article recently was suggesting that ethnic change was the reason for his dismal result.
Boundary changes in 1983 brought in much of the abolished Handsworth seat.
Handsworth was once more Tory than Perry Barr (a safe Tory seat when Perry Barr was bell weather).
The architect Sidney Chapman, who retired as Tory MP for Chipping Barnet in 2005, was MP for Handsworth from 1970 – 1974.
He replaced the lamented Sir Edward Boyle, a stalwart of liberal Toryism, who took a strong stand against Powellism and racism (leading a minority of Tories, including the young Heseltine, into the government lobby in favour of the Race Relations Act 1968). His local Association, where Powellism ran high – as in most of the West Midlands – took a very dim view of this, which propelled him out of office and into academia as Vice-Chancellor of Leeds (and, in a move of lasting significance, Heath promoted Mrs. Thatcher to take his place. Had he stayed on, she may not have entered the Cabinet in 1970).
Apparently Mahmood has been outed claiming expenses on a girlfriend called Cohen.
There has just been a local by-election in the Lozells and Handsworth East Ward (change on 2008 Locals)
Lab 3,108 42.2% (-0.43%)
LD 2,000 28.0% (+0.62%)
CON 1,622 22.7% (+18.19%)
GRN 297 4.2% (+1.64%)
UKIP 208 2.9%
Hendrina Nokuzola Quinnen wins for Lab
A couple of independent candidates in 2008 havent stood (they collectively had around 20% which accounts for a huge increase in Con support but little change overall for Lab and LD). Anybody with knowledge of the area know whether its a simple switch to the Tories of the ‘independent’ vote or something more complex?
Without having the official figures it looks like Turnout is a bit higher in the byelection than it was in 2008 (when it was 34%)
If I had to put money on it I’d say the same day as the 2010 locals, though I dont know exactly when that is, early May presumably?
I think he can wait until June but a rout in May isnt exactly a good spring board for a general in June. The locals might see some improvement from Labour as well if they had a general election sized turnout in comparison to 2006.
First Thursday in May which will be the 6th.
Wolf – the girlfriend in question is Elaina Cohen who stood in Rochdale for the Conservatives in 2001 (and did quite well too) – she has since defected to Labour and was in the running for Birmingham Ladywood vacancy (which she didn’t get).
A reasonable bet for a Tory second place, in my opinion.
“Anybody with knowledge of the area know whether its a simple switch to the Tories of the ‘independent’ vote or something more complex?”
The Conservative candidate this time was one of the two independent candidates in 2008. The other 2008 independent used to stand under the Respect banner but went the other way in the Galloway-SWP fall out
The Conservatives have selected William Norton here
Boundary changes in 1983 and 1997 have brought in more or less the whole of Birmingham Handsworth (abolished 1983).
This is as much a successor to the old Handsworth as it is to the old Perry Barr.
It’s interesting to look at how the individual wards may have voted in this seat in 2005 according to ElectoralCalculus (in terms of the current B’ham wards):
Aston: Lab – 2,002; LD – 1,561; C – 157; Others – 230
Handsworth Wood: Lab – 5,311; C – 1,996; LD – 1,985; Others – 945
Kingstanding: Lab – 152; C – 64; LD – 53; Others – 74
Lozells & E Handsworth: Lab – 2,946; LD – 1,621; C – 580; Others – 1,008
Oscott: Lab – 4,704; C – 2,983; LD – 1,337; Others – 989
Perry Barr: LD – 3,761; Lab – 3,150; C – 730; Others – 559
I’ve often wondered – is there much of a wood at Handwsorth Wood?
It is a distinctive and separate place,
and it is not Handsworth Park.