Birmingham Northfield
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14059 (33.62%)
Labour: 16841 (40.28%)
Liberal Democrat: 6550 (15.66%)
BNP: 2290 (5.48%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.26%)
Green: 406 (0.97%)
Others: 305 (0.73%)
Majority: 2782 (6.66%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19659 (49.9%)
Conservative: 11480 (29.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5232 (13.3%)
Other: 3052 (7.7%)
Majority: 8179 (20.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8965 (28.9%)
Labour: 15419 (49.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4171 (13.4%)
BNP: 1278 (4.1%)
UKIP: 641 (2.1%)
Other: 582 (1.9%)
Majority: 6454 (20.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8730 (29.6%)
Labour: 16528 (56%)
Liberal Democrat: 3322 (11.2%)
UKIP: 550 (1.9%)
Other: 404 (1.4%)
Majority: 7798 (26.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10873 (28%)
Labour: 22316 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4078 (10.5%)
Referendum: 1243 (3.2%)
Other: 337 (0.9%)
Majority: 11443 (29.5%)
Boundary changes: Extensive changes to local government boundary changes in Birmingham and the large size of council wards in the city mean that most of Birmingham`s consitutencies underwent many small changes to bring them into line with local government ward boundaries. Northfield loses a small part of Bournville ward to Selly Oak, gains a small part of Northfield itself from Selly Oak, a small part of Weoley from Selly Oak and gains most of Kings Norton, which was previously split between Northfield, Selly Oak and Hall Green.
Profile: Northfield is at the South-West tip of Birmingham and consists of the wards of Kings Norton, Longbridge, Northfield and Weoley. It is a white working class seat, inextricably linked with the Longbridge car plant which dominates the local economy. The factory closed in 2005, but following a buyout by Nanjing, it is hoped that production will resume in 2007.
On paper it is a long-shot seat for the Conservatives, but was held by the Conservatives between 1979 and 1992 (excluding a Labour by-election victory after Jocelyn Cadbury`s suicide) and in the 2006 local elections the Conservatives won all four wards in the seat. The seat is mostly made up of owner occupied semis and former council properties bought by their owners in the 1980s, though Kings Norton has more council property, especially the large council estate at Highter`s Heath and the Redditch Road Tower Blocks.
Current MP: Richard Burden(Labour) born 1954, Liverpool. Educated at Wallasey Technical School Grammar, Bramhall Comprehensive and the University of York. Before his election was a trade union offical for NALGO. First elected to Birmingham Northfield in 1992. Served as PPS to Jeff Rooker during the 1997-2001 Parliament. Chair of the parliamentary Palestian Group and strong critic of Israeli policy. Voted against the government over the Iraq war (more information at They work for you)
Keely Huxtable (Conservative) born 1981, Birmingham. Educated at Hillcrest School and Cadbury College.Richard Burden(Labour) born 1954, Liverpool. Educated at Wallasey Technical School Grammar, Bramhall Comprehensive and the University of York. Before his election was a trade union offical for NALGO. First elected to Birmingham Northfield in 1992. Served as PPS to Jeff Rooker during the 1997-2001 Parliament. Chair of the parliamentary Palestian Group and strong critic of Israeli policy. Voted against the government over the Iraq war (more information at They work for you)Mike Dixon (Liberal Democrat)Susan Pearce (Green) John Borthwick (UKIP)Les Orton (BNP)Dick Rodgers (Common Good)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97858
Male: 47.4%
Female: 52.6%
Under 18: 25.4%
Over 60: 20.2%
Born outside UK: 6%
White: 92.8%
Black: 2.4%
Asian: 1.4%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 73.7%
Muslim: 1%
Full time students: 4%
Graduates 16-74: 12.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.9%
Owner-Occupied: 58.8%
Social Housing: 33.5% (Council: 27.9%, Housing Ass.: 5.6%)
Privately Rented: 3.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.4%
It is not inconcievable that Labour could retain Birmingham Edgbaston but lose Birmingham Northfield.
In 1979, Labour held the marginal Birmingham Handsworth they had gained from the Tories in 1974, but lost the safe Labour seat of Birmingham Northfield.
If Peter is talking about 20 or 30 years from now I agree it is not inconceivable as demographic change and class realignment together might cause the kind of divergence he envisages.
At the next election such a scenario is inconceivable
There’s a lot of talk about local elections in Northfield in 1991 and 1992, and the divergence between those results and the general election in 1992. But I think Northfield is the sort of place – (like Liverpool these days) – where a lot of Labour voters don’t bother to vote except in general elections, so it’s not that surprising really.
That could be the reason….someone said to me he thinks these odd results in the West Midlands when the Tories suddenly do well one year and not another is because of unpopular Labour councils, but I don’t find that credible. (Birmingham remained Labour from 1984-2003 so you’d expect some interruption if that was the case).
We also need to find out what the turnout was in 1991.
I’m prepared to believe 1992 was differential turnout – Labour and Lib Dem voters depressed, and Tories coming out and voting again (despite the clouds ahead).
But I do recall there was a near 4% swing to the Tories in the May 1991 locals compared to May 1987, so losing the seat was something of a surprise.
Roger King was also pressing for a 1991 election.
“(Birmingham remained Labour from 1984-2003 so you’d expect some interruption if that was the case)”
Partly this is explained by bringing us bnack round to the discussion about councils electing in thirds. I think in 1991 and certainly in 1992 the Consewrvatives won a majority of seats being fought in Birmingham, but this was only a third and Labour had won a big majority in 1990 (IIRC Tories only won the 3 Sutton Coldfield wards and the three then in Edgbaston). Therefore it would have required a third good year to deliver Tory control of the council but ofcourse 1994 was decidedly not a good year. The same is probably true in the late 80s.
The 1992 local elections were a bit skewed in the sense that just a month before the Tories had won a 4th consecutive term, and most Tories were in jubilant mood whilst Labour voters were very depressed. A lot of them wouldn’t have bothered to vote whilst Tories would have been a lot more enthusiastic than normal for a local election. That’s why the Tories won all sorts of unlikely wards in unusual places, not least Stoke-on-Trent as Shaun Bennett has pointed out.
Sorry, the beginning should have said “The 1992 general election was…”
The 1992 local elections were fantastic.
But the mood didn’t last very long. Recovery did actually start some time before Black Wednesday (if not on the Friday morning of April 10th). but hardly anyone would have felt that because the indicators that people actually feel after a recession lag.
2008 local elections:
Conservative 9535
Labour 6499
BNP 2253
LibDem 453
Thanks Richard,
That is
CON 50.9%
LAB 34.7%
BNP 12.0%
LD 2.4%
This thread has gone way off topic. At national level Northfield has often swung more sharply than the country as a whole. I put this down to a relatively low degree of tribal/party political allegiance.
The Tories now have all 12 councillors and they are drawn from a variety of social backgrounds. In the last 3 local elections, Labour’s campaigns have been sporadic and diminishing. If the Tories are ahead by more than 5 points nationally at the next GE I can’t see how Labour can hold on here.
Not sure where the thread is off topic, I’ve just scanned the last 20 or so posts and they all looked directly relevant to the seat, although some of it was past history.
I hope the Tories can win here on an above average swing, following the excellent local election results, although history does suggest there can be quite a difference (e.g. 1991 vs 1992).
But possibly it indicates something that can be carried over this time.
From the profile: “The seat is mostly made up of owner occupied semis and former council properties bought by their owners in the 1980s, though Kings Norton has more council property, especially the large council estate at Highter`s Heath and the Redditch Road Tower Blocks.”
Highter’s Heath is in Billesley ward. Should this reference be to Hawkesley ?
All the councillors in this constituency are Conservatives.
How many other Labour seats does this apply to? Or for different party combinations?
Edgbaston for one.
It’s interesting how this seat has remained so white despite being only about 5 miles from Birmingham city centre.
The Conservatives have selected a very young candidate I notice, maybe an acknowledgement that they’re unlikely to win here or get close to winning.
Thats a rather bizarre observation. This is not some no-hope seat like Ladywood. I imagine those involved in the selection chose her because they felt that for various reasons she would be more likely to win than other possible candidates – mainly because of her strong local roots. She is a year younger than Jo Swinson elected in 2005 as MP for East Dunbartobshire. I imagine her selection for that seat wasnt an acknowledgement by the local LDs that they had no chance of winning.
On the arithmetic this seat is a long shot of course, but full of swing voters. The swing required to gain it is almost exactly that which was required to gain it in 1979, so prior to that election one would have also said that the Conservatives were unlikely to win. Jocelyn Cadbury had contested the seat in October 1974 – when he was 28
I suppose my previous comment was partly based on the fact that the Conservative party in particular appears not to select a lot of women in their 20s as candidates in winnable seats, whereas that isn’t so much the case for the other two main parties (or at least that seems to be the case, I haven’t actually looked it up).
I was just trying to think who the youngest female Tory MP ever elected is/was. Justine Greening was the youngest in 2005 but she was 36 which was 3 years older than Margaret Thatcher was when first elected for Finchley 1959. I can’t readily think of a female Tory MP under 30 when first elected. Maybe Margaret Thatcher actually holds that record.
Lynda Chalker was 31 years old when first elected for Wallasey in February 1974. I think she could be the youngest female Tory MP ever elected. If anyone can think of anyone else I’d be interested to know.
You may be right.
Pat Hornsby-Smith was 36 when (first) elected for Chislehurst at the 1950 election.
She died relatively young in 1985 – I read a rather sad description of her in Alan Clarke’s diaries – from 1980 – where she seemed to be smoking and drinking very heavily.
I cannot see the Tories winning here next time but they will drastically reduce the majority. I see RIchard Burden holding on here with a majority in the region of 2,000.
It’s a possible outlyer, perhaps like in 1979, although there did seem to be a particular issue then, at Longbridge.
I posted about 3,000 for Labour some months ago, as a most likely – probably still about right.
I’d be interested to know which wards the following places are in.
Rubery – I think straddles Birmingham Northfield, and Bromsgrove.
Frankley – a large estate, I think must be in this seat, but looks like it’s partly in Worcestershire.
Rednal is a small place on the Bristol Road, by the border just north of the Lickey Hills.
These places are all in the Longbridge ward. New Frankley was movedfrom Worcestershire to Birmingham but retained a seperate parish status. It used to make the Uffdown ward of Bromsgrove safely Labour. Waseley ward is still a safe Labour ward as that includes the parts of Rubery which are in Worcestershire. I remember many years ago driving through this area out to some hill in Worcestershire which has views over Birmingham. I was struck by some not very pleasant looking council estates on either side of the boundary. The Beacon CC division of Worcestershire isLabour held (for now) due to the inclusion of all these areas where Longbridge spills over the boundary. The irony of all this is of course that Longbridge itself now has a full slate of Tory councillors
Interested to hear the Lickey Hills being mentioned. Used to go for walks there about 15 years ago with family.
Haven’t been here for a long time – 1992, and usually in the 80s – some family in Birmingham.
I know one of them, a cousin, had some terrible problems in some flats near Rednal, with neighbours who were using one of the flats I think to house stolen goods, and eventually gutted it. In the meantime, they did things like steal lightbulbs off the stairs, and a whole host of other things.
I asked where this flat was, and it was Rednal, near the Lickey Hills, so couldn’t quite fit this image with the tranquil place.
I understand Frankley is a much bigger estate. Did go to Rubery once or twice.
Thanks for dealing with the question about the wards Pete. It is an ironic point indeed.
The worst estate was the Egg Hill estate – it has now been demolished after all concerned it was the best thing to do.
I don’t consider any of this seat to be particularly rough although Overbury Road, Frankley and Weoley Castle obviously have their problems.
Overall this is a low crime constituency for Birmingham. (8th of 11 I believe) and Birmingham is a relatively low crime city – of the eight major cities outside the capital (Newcastle, Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester, Liverpool, Nottingham, Birmingham and Bristol), Birmingham has the lowest crime rate, so I wouldn’t get too carried away about the impact of one or two hotspots.
I’m sure that is correct.
As for Rednal, I don’t remember it being much more than a few roads.
Seems to be quite a bit of interest in the Birmingham seats so we’ve priced some more up including this one;
1/3 Lab
9/4 Con
I’ve always felt pretty safe walking around Birmingham city centre but maybe that’s because I’m quite familiar with it. Interesting to hear that about the crime levels.
Cheers Shadsy – any chance of a book on Birmingham Hall Green?
It is very interesting to read the comments from people who do not live in the constituency or seem to know not much about it!
Having lived in Northfield all my life, I feel that I can comment on realities and not supposition.
The 2008 council election produced the following total votes:
Conservative 9535 44.92% Labour 6499 30.62% BNP 2706 12.75% Lib Dems 1617 7.62% Green 832 3.9% 38 spoilt papers 0.18% Turnout 29.76%.
All 12 councillors in the constituency are Conservative.
There are no council elections in 2009.
The last few years of rule by the Progressive Partnership has given us all an improving environment and the closure and demolition of the Austin/BMC/Rover works has changed the very nature of the area. The Nanjing efforts can be discounted, since it seems to be just a cover for the purchase of a fully operational car plant which they did not possess. It will not last and will eventually be demolished and redeveloped.
The area does not need a union backed and trained MP any longer. Keely has a good chance given the large changes that have taken place recently.
Bob
I think this could be an outside chance of a Tory gain now. Does anyone agree it’s more credible now?
Yes I do I think Labour were running third here in the European elections behind UKIP. This is perhaps a better prospect now than Selly Oak because it doesnt have a large amount of the public sector Guardian reading middle class that Selly Oak itself does have. All the wards are solidly white working class and lower middle class, the kind of demographic who are abandoning Labour en masse.
Praguetory – I think maybe Edinburgh, Glasgow and Cardiff urban districts might be quite significant ones outside the capital too! :p
Believe it or not, this seat was more marginal than Selly Oak in 2005 – the new boundary changes will slightly reverse this scenario.
What has happened about production of the new MG TF at the Longbridge car plant?
I couldn’t answer that point,
but about half the site is closed and looks flattened (that section to the west side of the Bristol Road), plus a smaller section at the north west side.
I am told that the Chinese owners are keeping their cards close to their chest, and there are fears that low level production could be shifted overseas,
but I wouldn’t like to say anything more specific as don’t know.
smaller section to north east side.
I actually think Selly Oak may be slightly more likely than this seat for Tories, but both are probably credible possibilities.
There’s no doubt that Birmingham remains the most electorally interesting of cities outside of London as it has been in my opinion since the second world war (before which it was fairly dull because of the Chamberlainite stranglehold)
It has been slightly dull in the last few elections due to the Conservatives being unable to put up a decent challenge in seats like Selly Oak, Northfield, Edgbaston, Hall Green. It hasn’t really been their fault, more as a result of demographic change. Birmingham was quite interesting in the 1980s with the representation being evenly split and seats like Perry Barr swinging against the national trend in 1983 when Portillo might have expected to win the seat.
It’s interesting to think what would have happened to Portillo if he had won in Perry Barr in 1983.
I suspect that he would have held on in 1987 but would have certainly been defeated in 1992.
There would thus be no ‘Portillo moment’ in 1997 instead it’s likely he would have returned to Parliament then probably for a safe Conservative seat somewhere as Maude or Maples did.
Not having been prominent in the 1990s he would not have been a living symbol of the Major government and so would have probably become Conservative leader after 2001.
He should have become Tory leader in 2001 in any case. He would not have had to do much to outperform the man who did find himself leader following the 2001 contest.
I disagree with the demonisation of the IDS leadership, he is one of the most fundamentally decent men in politics and any examination of opinion polls or local election results show that his period of leadership was more successful than is generally believed.
Having either Portillo or Clarke as leader might well have been disasterous for the Conservatives.
The decency and integrity of IDS was never in question. Had I been a Tory member at the time of the 2001 contest I may well have voted for him in the final round in preference to Clarke (it would have been an incredibly difficult choice to make though as neither were ever going excel as leader). However vast tracts of the nation, in common with Michael Foot, just could not see him as a potential Prime Minister. He was a poor speaker and media performer in an age when such a defect is almost in itself terminal. His decision to whip a vote on gay adoption was needless, poor party management and indicative of poor judgement as to which battles to fight and which to avoid. Election results during his leadership were not as bad as was often asserted at the time, but still fell well short of even showing the potential to force a hung parliament.
Michael Portillo’s failure to challenge John Major in 1995, his loss of Southgate in 1997 and his failure to reach the final round of the 2001 leadership contest were all substantial setbacks for the Tory party in the dark days after Black Wednesday and pre-Cameron.
I voted for Ken Clarke (2001)
because of his leadership qualities,
and his credibility as a former Chancellor.
I supported David Davis in 2005.
I have no regrets – I voted FOR them,
not against anyone else.
Interesting comments about Michael Portillo. My view is that his biggest downfall was his ‘out of his depth’ performances as shadow chancellor. His ‘bash Brussels’ speech was a tad childish.
William Hague used to be of a similar ilk, but has now matured and could yet be a decent future leader.
The problem I had with IDS is that he didn’t give me the impression of being a normal person. He has spent all of his life in ‘systems’, public school then Sandhurst then an MP and I felt that this resulted in his inability to connect with Joe Public.
Cameron, whilst being slightly ‘public schoolboyish’, at least gives the impression of being a normalish bloke.
“Election results during his leadership were not as bad as was often asserted at the time, but still fell well short of even showing the potential to force a hung parliament.”
They were no better under Howard nor were the opinion polls.
I do think IDS was the sort of person who had greater support among ordinary people than among ‘political’ people.
But my main point was that having a drama queen like Portillo or someone who, though excellent in many respects, was out-of-step on what was to many Conservatives the key issue risked potential disaster.
“The problem I had with IDS is that he didn’t give me the impression of being a normal person. He has spent all of his life in ’systems’, public school then Sandhurst then an MP and I felt that this resulted in his inability to connect with Joe Public.”
IDS left the army in 1981 and didn’t enter Parliament until 1992 so he had 11 years ‘normal’ experience.
I think if Portillo had become leader at some stage, the Tories would probably not still be in opposition at the present time.
I’m not knocking IDS’ background. One criticism of MP’s in general is that there are too many lawyers, bankers and civil servants and that they are subsequently ‘one dimensional’ in their thinking. Does anyone know what IDS did in those 11 years.
IDS might well be a decent man, but is he leadership/PM potential – the Tory party obviously thought that in the case of the latter he was not.
You think the Conservatives could have won an election with Portillo as leader???
Do you understand why the ‘Portillo moment’ became famous???
The sad fact is that the Conservatives were not going to win an election again UNTIL the Labour government had destroyed its reputation economically. Than requirement has now occured.
All the Conservatives in opposition could really hope to do was reduce the Labour majority to manageable levels and perhaps more importantly not destroy themselves.