Birmingham Northfield
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14059 (33.62%)
Labour: 16841 (40.28%)
Liberal Democrat: 6550 (15.66%)
BNP: 2290 (5.48%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.26%)
Green: 406 (0.97%)
Others: 305 (0.73%)
Majority: 2782 (6.66%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19659 (49.9%)
Conservative: 11480 (29.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5232 (13.3%)
Other: 3052 (7.7%)
Majority: 8179 (20.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8965 (28.9%)
Labour: 15419 (49.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4171 (13.4%)
BNP: 1278 (4.1%)
UKIP: 641 (2.1%)
Other: 582 (1.9%)
Majority: 6454 (20.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8730 (29.6%)
Labour: 16528 (56%)
Liberal Democrat: 3322 (11.2%)
UKIP: 550 (1.9%)
Other: 404 (1.4%)
Majority: 7798 (26.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10873 (28%)
Labour: 22316 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4078 (10.5%)
Referendum: 1243 (3.2%)
Other: 337 (0.9%)
Majority: 11443 (29.5%)
Boundary changes: Extensive changes to local government boundary changes in Birmingham and the large size of council wards in the city mean that most of Birmingham`s consitutencies underwent many small changes to bring them into line with local government ward boundaries. Northfield loses a small part of Bournville ward to Selly Oak, gains a small part of Northfield itself from Selly Oak, a small part of Weoley from Selly Oak and gains most of Kings Norton, which was previously split between Northfield, Selly Oak and Hall Green.
Profile: Northfield is at the South-West tip of Birmingham and consists of the wards of Kings Norton, Longbridge, Northfield and Weoley. It is a white working class seat, inextricably linked with the Longbridge car plant which dominates the local economy. The factory closed in 2005, but following a buyout by Nanjing, it is hoped that production will resume in 2007.
On paper it is a long-shot seat for the Conservatives, but was held by the Conservatives between 1979 and 1992 (excluding a Labour by-election victory after Jocelyn Cadbury`s suicide) and in the 2006 local elections the Conservatives won all four wards in the seat. The seat is mostly made up of owner occupied semis and former council properties bought by their owners in the 1980s, though Kings Norton has more council property, especially the large council estate at Highter`s Heath and the Redditch Road Tower Blocks.
Current MP: Richard Burden(Labour) born 1954, Liverpool. Educated at Wallasey Technical School Grammar, Bramhall Comprehensive and the University of York. Before his election was a trade union offical for NALGO. First elected to Birmingham Northfield in 1992. Served as PPS to Jeff Rooker during the 1997-2001 Parliament. Chair of the parliamentary Palestian Group and strong critic of Israeli policy. Voted against the government over the Iraq war (more information at They work for you)
Keely Huxtable (Conservative) born 1981, Birmingham. Educated at Hillcrest School and Cadbury College.Richard Burden(Labour) born 1954, Liverpool. Educated at Wallasey Technical School Grammar, Bramhall Comprehensive and the University of York. Before his election was a trade union offical for NALGO. First elected to Birmingham Northfield in 1992. Served as PPS to Jeff Rooker during the 1997-2001 Parliament. Chair of the parliamentary Palestian Group and strong critic of Israeli policy. Voted against the government over the Iraq war (more information at They work for you)Mike Dixon (Liberal Democrat)Susan Pearce (Green) John Borthwick (UKIP)Les Orton (BNP)Dick Rodgers (Common Good)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97858
Male: 47.4%
Female: 52.6%
Under 18: 25.4%
Over 60: 20.2%
Born outside UK: 6%
White: 92.8%
Black: 2.4%
Asian: 1.4%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 73.7%
Muslim: 1%
Full time students: 4%
Graduates 16-74: 12.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.9%
Owner-Occupied: 58.8%
Social Housing: 33.5% (Council: 27.9%, Housing Ass.: 5.6%)
Privately Rented: 3.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.4%
Prague, my comments were not meant to be negative. Northfield just did not look natural Tory territory to me (one could see more than just the main road from the car, as we were coming down a fairly sharp hill, and having had to prepare letters for Ministers from angry constituents in a previous job, I heard fairly negative reports of the Northfield Estate. Of course, if it is down to local Tory activity, then good for them). That is one of the reasons (not just low Council Tax) we have won Wandsworth for years. And re-read my comments about Keely. I found her a breath of fresh air and feel she will make a fabulous MP if elected.
I meant to add that if more people like Keely came to the fore in the Conservative Party, it would give the lie to the nonsense peddled by Brown and co that the party is for the few and not the many. Unfortunately by the beginning of 2005, following the wilderness years of Hague, the party was largely down to those you would see as natural Tories. Justine Greening in my neighbouring seat of Putney is another excellent example of a Conservative from an “ordinary” background, who undoubtedly will make it to Ministerial level or even the Cabinet if a Conservative government is elected. Anyway, back to the point, not wishing to be accused of partisanship, I still think about a 3000 Labour majority in this seat, but hope to be proved wrong.
I forgot to add to my earlier post; the Conservative hold 79-92 was anomalous. The 79 win benefitted greatly from the Cadbury name effect as large swathes of the seat are still built on land where the freehold is (or was) Cadbury owned and the family was well known and respected for its community efforts. The 83 and 87 elections were Conservative landslides so say little.
‘Duncan Dunsmore-Rouse’
There is no ‘Northfield Estate’
LAB HOLD
I remember the 1979 election. I worked for Jocelyn Cadbury when the Conservatives overturned a 10,000+ Labour majority. It was hard work and very rewarding to get what was, I think, the second highest swing to capture a seat in that election. I was saddened when Jocelyn died in 1982 as he was a very hard worker and usually well regarded in the constituency as an MP. Roger Gale fought for the seat then, but lost to John Spellar. Roger King regained the seat at the next election (1983), after which I moved out of the constituency and lost touch with things there.
I also remember Edwina Currie well.
The road would have been Bristol Road (Bristol Road South, further along). Northfield road would have been either in Harborne, which would have been a bit of a detour from Edgbaston and only just bordering on the constituency, or a missed turn off the Bunbury road.
Basildon was a higher swing than Birmingham Northfield in 1979, but was won with excess votes (as it then included Billericay).
Birmingham Northfield must surely have been the highest swing where all the swing was needed and achieved a change of party.
I do wonder whether this seat could overtake Edgbaston as a viable Tory target but suspect Labour must be at a pretty low ebb here already.
Which ward is Ganow in?
I guess it’s Longbridge.
I believe it is.
I do think this could realistically over take Birmingham Edgbaston next time around as a Tory target.
While the majority is larger there is a far larger vote for the other parties (Lib-Dems, BNP, UKIP ect), which is ripe for squeezing. It all depends on who can squeeze it, the growth of new housing and the demise of rover has certainly had an effect here which could be detrimental to the Labour vote.
In addition the higher profile of Gisela Stuart could make her harder to topple then then the almost unknown Richard Burden, especially if Keeley Huxtable stands again.
“Roger Gale fought for the seat then, but lost to John Spellar.”
Despite losing the seat, the 1982 by-election was a good result for the Conservatives in the full spate of things. The swing was just half of one percent and didn’t point towards Labour getting back into office.
I wonder whether Michael Foot might have been in trouble as Labour leader if the party hadn’t held Northfield and later Darlington in March 1983, although the party did suffer a bad loss in Bermondsey of course in between.
That was maybe blamed more on Peter Tatchell than Michael Foot.
If Bob Mellish hadn’t forced a by-election when he was deselected, and remained an MP up to the 1983 general election, Peter Tatchell would most likely have held Bermondsey easily in the general election. I wonder how his political career would have fared. Would he have followed the trajectory of other former hard left Labour MPs like Margaret Becket and been seduced into the New Labour government? Or would he have remained outside on the hard left like Corbyn or McDonnell? Would he still be an MP today?
Sorry for going off the Birmingham topic.
This seat is not much better for Labour now than Birmingham Edgbaston.
What are the odds that Labour could have a larger majority in Edgbaston than here?
Just a small point – the by-election in this seat resulted in a Labour gain (albeit with a tiny swing), not a Labour hold.
Is there a page missing from Richard Burden’s CV?
If he was bright enough to go to a Technical Grammar School, why didn’t he use it for something technical, before he was an MP.
Keely Huxtable may be second time lucky, and should have another go.
But it’s a hard nut to crack, so could be the Olga Maitland of Brum.
Thanks Barnaby. I realised my mistake immediately after posting the comment.
was this the seat Tory MP Andrew Hargreaves used to represent up until 1997 – one of the few MPs to sport a moustache – and a very old fashioned one too
He was very right wing if I remember rightly
Compared to some other results in the industrial West Midlands, the Tories have done well to come within 2000 votes of Labour
No it wasn’t. He was MP for Hall Green. This seat was held by Roger King, now a lobbyist for the motor industry (hardly inappropriately).
and indeed, Labour won here in 1992 as well.
Thanks for the correction Barnaby – I knew it was one of the Birmningham seat
Andrew Hargreaves was the Tory candidate in Blyth Valley in 1983 who increased the Conservative share of the vote by 10% which was the best Tory rise of that election IIRC.
If this seat remains in tact but takes territory from Edgbaston, it could be better for Con.
But obviously a swing is needed, as they didn’t take either last time.
So it seems in the boundary review that this seat will lose Weoley, but gain Bournville, possibly making it a better seat for the conservatives?
Or would there be little real change?
Aren’t these proposed changes returning the seat to the same basic configuration as the 1983 to 1997 boundaries?
No because neither Bourneville or Kings Norton were in it then (they were in Selly Oak) and Weoley and Bartley Green were (they are to be in new Harborne).
The new Northfield has the same wards as the 1960s Northfield but that also had Weoley and Bartley Green.
1983 ITN coverage including the Birmingham Northfield declaration at about 46 minutes:
htttp://bit.ly/oY5jxI
Thanks Andy
What do I have to do to these links –
think you’ve sensibly disguised them slightly so they post straight up?
Found it – it’s about 45 mins of the election night,
very interesting,
I think it’s the one I watched at the time as I didn’t recognise the BBC one Andy put on U tube.
Birmingham Northfield is about half way through.
Later on is Peckham – strange that the NF candidate looked half cast.
h ttp://www.itnsource.com/shotlist//ITN/1983/06/09/AS090683032/?s=uk+Election+1983+&st=0&pn=16
Wasn’t that the Mayor’s wife?
Joe, I fear you might be expelled from Cameron’s Conservative party from using such a political incorrect term.
I believe the official description is now ‘mixed race’.
Though perhaps as your comment referred to 1983 using a then widely used term might be excused as a post-modernism.
I think you’re right Pete – she was at the Bermondsey declaration aswell later on so couldn’t have been a candidate.
Quite likely the NF candidate didn’t turn up to the count.
I had no idea it was an incorrect term.
Joe – I usually add an extra “t” in the http part of the address to beat the spam blocker.
There was somebody (couldn’t really tell whether male or female) wearing a huge red rosette, and standing well away from John Spellar.
Perhaps this was the Communist candidate.
Spellar is a good right wing Labour MP with I think an industrial background, so I was pleased to see him find another seat, and a chance to serve in office.
According to Anthony, Labour’s majority here would be just under 2000 should the Boundary Commission’s proposals go through. If the Conservatives win the next election outright, one would reasonably expect them to take this. It looks like another bellweather seat to me.