Birmingham Northfield
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14059 (33.62%)
Labour: 16841 (40.28%)
Liberal Democrat: 6550 (15.66%)
BNP: 2290 (5.48%)
UKIP: 1363 (3.26%)
Green: 406 (0.97%)
Others: 305 (0.73%)
Majority: 2782 (6.66%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19659 (49.9%)
Conservative: 11480 (29.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5232 (13.3%)
Other: 3052 (7.7%)
Majority: 8179 (20.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8965 (28.9%)
Labour: 15419 (49.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4171 (13.4%)
BNP: 1278 (4.1%)
UKIP: 641 (2.1%)
Other: 582 (1.9%)
Majority: 6454 (20.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8730 (29.6%)
Labour: 16528 (56%)
Liberal Democrat: 3322 (11.2%)
UKIP: 550 (1.9%)
Other: 404 (1.4%)
Majority: 7798 (26.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10873 (28%)
Labour: 22316 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4078 (10.5%)
Referendum: 1243 (3.2%)
Other: 337 (0.9%)
Majority: 11443 (29.5%)
Boundary changes: Extensive changes to local government boundary changes in Birmingham and the large size of council wards in the city mean that most of Birmingham`s consitutencies underwent many small changes to bring them into line with local government ward boundaries. Northfield loses a small part of Bournville ward to Selly Oak, gains a small part of Northfield itself from Selly Oak, a small part of Weoley from Selly Oak and gains most of Kings Norton, which was previously split between Northfield, Selly Oak and Hall Green.
Profile: Northfield is at the South-West tip of Birmingham and consists of the wards of Kings Norton, Longbridge, Northfield and Weoley. It is a white working class seat, inextricably linked with the Longbridge car plant which dominates the local economy. The factory closed in 2005, but following a buyout by Nanjing, it is hoped that production will resume in 2007.
On paper it is a long-shot seat for the Conservatives, but was held by the Conservatives between 1979 and 1992 (excluding a Labour by-election victory after Jocelyn Cadbury`s suicide) and in the 2006 local elections the Conservatives won all four wards in the seat. The seat is mostly made up of owner occupied semis and former council properties bought by their owners in the 1980s, though Kings Norton has more council property, especially the large council estate at Highter`s Heath and the Redditch Road Tower Blocks.
Current MP: Richard Burden(Labour) born 1954, Liverpool. Educated at Wallasey Technical School Grammar, Bramhall Comprehensive and the University of York. Before his election was a trade union offical for NALGO. First elected to Birmingham Northfield in 1992. Served as PPS to Jeff Rooker during the 1997-2001 Parliament. Chair of the parliamentary Palestian Group and strong critic of Israeli policy. Voted against the government over the Iraq war (more information at They work for you)
Keely Huxtable (Conservative) born 1981, Birmingham. Educated at Hillcrest School and Cadbury College.Richard Burden(Labour) born 1954, Liverpool. Educated at Wallasey Technical School Grammar, Bramhall Comprehensive and the University of York. Before his election was a trade union offical for NALGO. First elected to Birmingham Northfield in 1992. Served as PPS to Jeff Rooker during the 1997-2001 Parliament. Chair of the parliamentary Palestian Group and strong critic of Israeli policy. Voted against the government over the Iraq war (more information at They work for you)Mike Dixon (Liberal Democrat)Susan Pearce (Green) John Borthwick (UKIP)Les Orton (BNP)Dick Rodgers (Common Good)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97858
Male: 47.4%
Female: 52.6%
Under 18: 25.4%
Over 60: 20.2%
Born outside UK: 6%
White: 92.8%
Black: 2.4%
Asian: 1.4%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 73.7%
Muslim: 1%
Full time students: 4%
Graduates 16-74: 12.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.9%
Owner-Occupied: 58.8%
Social Housing: 33.5% (Council: 27.9%, Housing Ass.: 5.6%)
Privately Rented: 3.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.4%
I don’t know this area at all well, other than travelling down the Northfield Road after going to a cricket match at Edgbaston, and I was very surprised to read that the ward was Conservative, and had been for some while. Therefore, Labour hold in all normal circumstances, 3000 or so. However, what the Conservatives do have going with them is their candidate. Keely Huxtable is local, extremely hard working, and notably, has not in any way lost her broad Brummie accent. I once met her on a Conservative Christian Fellowship weekend, along with Tim, her husband, who is a councillor in one of the neighbouring wards. They are a charming couple (no, this is not a partisan comment), and both extremely hard working, using their leisure time on that weekend to stuff envelopes with newsletters, though I must admit I was surprised to find that Keely was a Tory; she didn’t seem to fit the profile of most Tories I knew at the time. Before Cleggmania, even allowing for my lack of knowledge of the area I would have thought she had a good chance of winning. Now (even though the effect seems to be somewhat waning), with most of the new support for the Lib Dems coming from the Tories (as I said on the Battersea thread, I met plenty of wavering Tories when out canvassing), I would think Burden is probably safe, with roughly a 3000 majority.
Duncan,
Northfield WARD is usually Conservative except during dire years. It is significantly more reliable for the Conservatives than the other wards. I seem to recall that baack in the early 1980’s one of the ward councillors was a Mrs Edwina Currie.
“other than travelling down the Northfield Road after going to a cricket match at Edgbaston, and I was very surprised to read that the ward was Conservative, and had been for some while”
I’d be surprised if it was Northfield Road you travelled on – more likely Bristol Road. Not sure how anyone could judge an area’s likely voting intention by driving down one road in that ward.
“I must admit I was surprised to find that Keely was a Tory; she didn’t seem to fit the profile of most Tories I knew at the time”
Welcome to Birmingham.
Before long Labour will only have the Guardianista and some inner city family votes left to rely upon for votes.
I agree with the comments that this is natural Labour territory. I was brought up in the area, was a LibDem local candidate many years ago (just to stop the NF getting 3rd) and always thought the only reason Labour ever lost was a failure to organise and get their vote out. Since my day the area has deteriorated, especially around Weoley and Ley Hill so should be even safer. Add the fact that Burden is an unusually good Labour MP and he really should hold this one, probably by 4000.
Edwina Currie was first elected in 1975 and re-elected in 1979.
I guess she must have given up her council seat in Birmingham in May 1983.
Prague, my comments were not meant to be negative. Northfield just did not look natural Tory territory to me (one could see more than just the main road from the car, as we were coming down a fairly sharp hill, and having had to prepare letters for Ministers from angry constituents in a previous job, I heard fairly negative reports of the Northfield Estate. Of course, if it is down to local Tory activity, then good for them). That is one of the reasons (not just low Council Tax) we have won Wandsworth for years. And re-read my comments about Keely. I found her a breath of fresh air and feel she will make a fabulous MP if elected.
I meant to add that if more people like Keely came to the fore in the Conservative Party, it would give the lie to the nonsense peddled by Brown and co that the party is for the few and not the many. Unfortunately by the beginning of 2005, following the wilderness years of Hague, the party was largely down to those you would see as natural Tories. Justine Greening in my neighbouring seat of Putney is another excellent example of a Conservative from an “ordinary” background, who undoubtedly will make it to Ministerial level or even the Cabinet if a Conservative government is elected. Anyway, back to the point, not wishing to be accused of partisanship, I still think about a 3000 Labour majority in this seat, but hope to be proved wrong.
I forgot to add to my earlier post; the Conservative hold 79-92 was anomalous. The 79 win benefitted greatly from the Cadbury name effect as large swathes of the seat are still built on land where the freehold is (or was) Cadbury owned and the family was well known and respected for its community efforts. The 83 and 87 elections were Conservative landslides so say little.
‘Duncan Dunsmore-Rouse’
There is no ‘Northfield Estate’
LAB HOLD
I remember the 1979 election. I worked for Jocelyn Cadbury when the Conservatives overturned a 10,000+ Labour majority. It was hard work and very rewarding to get what was, I think, the second highest swing to capture a seat in that election. I was saddened when Jocelyn died in 1982 as he was a very hard worker and usually well regarded in the constituency as an MP. Roger Gale fought for the seat then, but lost to John Spellar. Roger King regained the seat at the next election (1983), after which I moved out of the constituency and lost touch with things there.
I also remember Edwina Currie well.
The road would have been Bristol Road (Bristol Road South, further along). Northfield road would have been either in Harborne, which would have been a bit of a detour from Edgbaston and only just bordering on the constituency, or a missed turn off the Bunbury road.
Basildon was a higher swing than Birmingham Northfield in 1979, but was won with excess votes (as it then included Billericay).
Birmingham Northfield must surely have been the highest swing where all the swing was needed and achieved a change of party.
I do wonder whether this seat could overtake Edgbaston as a viable Tory target but suspect Labour must be at a pretty low ebb here already.
Which ward is Ganow in?
I guess it’s Longbridge.