Birmingham Northfield
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19659 (49.9%)
Conservative: 11480 (29.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5232 (13.3%)
Other: 3052 (7.7%)
Majority: 8179 (20.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8965 (28.9%)
Labour: 15419 (49.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4171 (13.4%)
BNP: 1278 (4.1%)
UKIP: 641 (2.1%)
Other: 582 (1.9%)
Majority: 6454 (20.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8730 (29.6%)
Labour: 16528 (56%)
Liberal Democrat: 3322 (11.2%)
UKIP: 550 (1.9%)
Other: 404 (1.4%)
Majority: 7798 (26.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10873 (28%)
Labour: 22316 (57.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4078 (10.5%)
Referendum: 1243 (3.2%)
Other: 337 (0.9%)
Majority: 11443 (29.5%)
Boundary changes: Extensive changes to local government boundary changes in Birmingham and the large size of council wards in the city mean that most of Birmingham`s consitutencies underwent many small changes to bring them into line with local government ward boundaries. Northfield loses a small part of Bournville ward to Selly Oak, gains a small part of Northfield itself from Selly Oak, a small part of Weoley from Selly Oak and gains most of Kings Norton, which was previously split between Northfield, Selly Oak and Hall Green.
Profile: Northfield is at the South-West tip of Birmingham and consists of the wards of Kings Norton, Longbridge, Northfield and Weoley. It is a white working class seat, inextricably linked with the Longbridge car plant which dominates the local economy. The factory closed in 2005, but following a buyout by Nanjing, it is hoped that production will resume in 2007.
On paper it is a long-shot seat for the Conservatives, but was held by the Conservatives between 1979 and 1992 (excluding a Labour by-election victory after Jocelyn Cadbury`s suicide) and in the 2006 local elections the Conservatives won all four wards in the seat. The seat is mostly made up of owner occupied semis and former council properties bought by their owners in the 1980s, though Kings Norton has more council property, especially the large council estate at Highter`s Heath and the Redditch Road Tower Blocks.
Current MP: Richard Burden(Labour) born 1954, Liverpool. Educated at Wallasey Technical School Grammar, Bramhall Comprehensive and the University of York. Before his election was a trade union offical for NALGO. First elected to Birmingham Northfield in 1992. Served as PPS to Jeff Rooker during the 1997-2001 Parliament. Chair of the parliamentary Palestian Group and strong critic of Israeli policy. Voted against the government over the Iraq war (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Keely Huxtable (Conservative) born 1981, Birmingham. Educated at Hillcrest School and Cadbury College.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97858
Male: 47.4%
Female: 52.6%
Under 18: 25.4%
Over 60: 20.2%
Born outside UK: 6%
White: 92.8%
Black: 2.4%
Asian: 1.4%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 73.7%
Muslim: 1%
Full time students: 4%
Graduates 16-74: 12.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.9%
Owner-Occupied: 58.8%
Social Housing: 33.5% (Council: 27.9%, Housing Ass.: 5.6%)
Privately Rented: 3.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.4%
Tories wouldn’t need to double their vote, just increase it by about 10%.
Thanks Barnaby,
apparently Cadbury’s predecessor, Ray Carter (MP until 1979), was born in Mortlake.
I saw the 1970 result for Birmingham Northfield and it did show Conservatives a lot higher than in 1974, but it looked like an over-sized seat, so I guess the boundaries were different from 1974 making it safer for Labour, hence the shock in 1979,
97,000 in 1970 up from 65,000 in 1955 – a 50% increase in 15 years. It then included the Kings Norton ward which then included most of Bourneville as well as Bartley Green (then part of Weoley ward IIRC). There are now six Birmingham wards that approximately cover the area of the 1955-74 vintage Northfield though at the time I think there were just three – Weoley (Weoley and Bartley Green of the current wards), Northfield (Northfield and Longbridge) and Kings Norton (Kings Norton and Bourneville).
The boundary changes in 1974 removed around 20,000 voters in Kings Norton to Selly Oak which despite including some good Tory areas in Bourneville helped tip Selly oak over to Labour in 1974 (it had remained Conservative in 1966)
Pete
So what did Selly Oak constituency contain in 1970?
Selly Oak and Moseley presumably, anything else?
But yet another example of political change as Kings Norton and Bourneville are now far better for the Conservatives than Selly Oak and Moseley.
“So what did Selly Oak constituency contain in 1970?
Selly Oak and Moseley presumably, anything else?”
I had thought just those two wards, but that implied a very small electorate. It was actually just under 55,000 and on the new boundaries in 1974 it was just over 62,000 so this cannot account for the 20,000 voters who departed from Northfield.
On closer inspection it appears that Selly Oak previously contained a substantial part of what is now Sparkbrook ward (Balsall Heath basaically) and this area would have been removed in 1974 therefore the boundary changes may actually have been unfavourable to Labour rather than favourable as suggested. Indeed the Conservatives won a larger majority in february 1974 than they did in the old seat in 1970.
You are quite correct about the political change in the area which was already occurring back then. There was hardly any swing from Labour to Conservative in 1970 and this in a region that swung more heavily to the Conservatives than any other. If the 1955-74 vintage of Selly Oak existed today it would be a safe Labour seat verging on a marginal with the LDs challenging and Tories a poor third. The mixture of a large Guardian reading middle class, students and a sizeable ethnic minority population is the classic formula in those seats in other cities which were safely Tory 40 years ago but subsequently moved to Labour and then to the LDs in 2005 – Withington, Leeds NW, Bristol West, Hornsey
Pete
The electorate numbers confused me too.
It seems the 1970 Selly Oak’s nearest equivalent might have been Manchester Moss Side.
Which is interesting because I’ve always thought of Birmingham Handsworth as the Moss Side equivalent (perhaps because they both disappeared after 1979).
I wouldn’t include Leeds NW as similar though, but if it was the 1974 Leeds NW including Kirkstall rather than Otley I might do.
Thanks for these details, Pete, Richard. It’s good to have the full explanation.
For the love of god.
I am sick of saying this.
Bournville does not have an ‘E’
Stop saying it then., There are better things to worry about
Pete. I think someone who can’t spell the name of un quartier cannot comment on it’s politics either.
Your monotheistic culture does not emphasis grammar enough.
The Haïtian education system, based on its voodoo values, would have corrected your flaws mon ami.
a dieu.