Comments on: Birmingham Ladywood

By: richard

richard — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 10:34:37 +0000

There’s a map in the Penguin Atlas of British and Irish History of the 1971 Birmingham council wards with their then ethnic minority percentage.

Comparing the wards boundaries it seems:

2011 Edgbaston = 1971 Edgbaston

2011 Harborne = 1971 Harborne

2011 Quinton = 1971 Quinton

2011 Bartley Green = western half of 1971 Weoley

2011 Weoley = eastern half of 1971 Weoley + northern bit of 1971 Longbridge

2011 Longbridge = most of 1971 Longbridge

2011 Northfield = 1971 Northfield

2011 Kings Norton = southern two thirds of 1971 Kings Norton

2011 Bourneville = northern third of 1971 Kings Norton + southern third of 1971 Selly Oak

2011 Selly Oak = northern two thirds of 1971 Selly Oak

2011 Moseley = 1971 Moseley

2011 Brandwood = 1971 Brandwood

2011 Billesley = 1971 Billesely

2011 Hall Green = eastern two thirds of 1971 Hall Green

2011 Springfield = western third of 1971 Hall Green + eastern half of 1971 Sparkhill

2011 Sparkbrook = western half of 1971 Spakhill + southern third of 1971 Deritend + western half of 1971 Sparkbrook

2011 Acocks Green = 1971 Fox Hollies

2011 S Yardley = 1971 Acocks Green + eastern half of 1971 Sparkbrook + western third of 1971 Yardley

2011 Stechford + Yardley N = eastern two thirds of 1971 Yardley + western half of 1971 Stechford

2011 Sheldon = 1971 Sheldon

2011 Shard End = eastern half of 1971 Stechford + eastern half of 1971 Shard End

2011 Hodge Hill = western half of 1971 Shard End + northern half of 1971 Washwood Heath

2011 Washwood Heath = southern half of 1971 Washwood Heath + western half of 1971 Saltley

2011 Bordesley Green = 1971 Small Heath + eastern half of 1971 Saltley

2011 Nechells = northern two thirds of 1971 Deritend + 1971 Duddeston

2011 Ladywood = 1971 Ladywood + eastern half of 1971 Rotton Park

2011 Soho = western half of 1971 Rotton Park + 1971 All Saints + western half of 1971 Soho

2011 Aston = 1971 Aston + 1971 Newtown

2011 Lozells and Handsworth East = eastern half of 1971 Soho + western two thirds of 1971 Handsworth

2011 Handsworth Wood = 1971 Sandwell

2011 Perry Barr = 1971 Perry Barr + eastern third of 1971 Handsworth

2011 Oscott = 1971 Oscott

2011 Kingstanding = 1971 Kingstanding

2011 Stockland Green = western half of 1971 Stockland Green + western half of 1971 Gravelly Hill

2011 Erdington = eastern half of 1971 Stockland Green + western third of 1971 Erdington

2011 Tyburn = eastern two thirds of 1971 Erdington + eastern half of 1971 Gravelly Hill

By: richard

richard — Sat, 18 Jun 2011 11:16:41 +0000

So outside the Sutton wards the Cosnervatives won the following wards:

1982, 1992, 2008
Bourneville
Brandwood
Edgbaston
Erdington
Harborne
Northfield
Oscott
Quinton

1982, 1992
Hall Green
Hodge Hill
Moseley
Perry Barr
Selly Oak

1992, 2008
Bartley Green
Billesley
Lonbridge
Weoley

1982
Sandwell
Acocks Green
Sheldon
Yardley

1992
Shard End

2008
Kings Norton
Stockland Green

So out of 24 wards they won in their three big years they only managed to win 8 of them all three times.

An indication of how things can change in a generation.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Sat, 11 Jun 2011 03:12:40 +0000

Re the Northfield area, it’s worth remembering that Labour gained the seat in a parliamentary by-election in 1982, albeit with a very small swing, Labour appears to have helped a fraction more than the Conservatives by the high Alliance vote. The Tory improvement in the area between 1982 and 1992 therefore wasn’t just confined to local politics.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 22:18:41 +0000

I think Hodge Hill and Shard End have moved down the social scale somewhat since 1982.

By: richard

richard — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 19:32:18 +0000

Thanks Pete.

Didn’t the Conservatives win a majority of wards in 1991 as well or am I mistaken?

Some thoughts:

The Northfield area was much weaker for the Conservatives in 1982 than it is now. Caused by car industry troubles perhaps?

The Conservative position in the Selly Oak area was clearly rotting by 1992.

Why have the Conservatives not recovered in Hodge Hill or Shard End? Yardley is understandable as the LibDems became the anti-Labour party but the Conservatives have done well recently both in the Erdington area and the adjacent Meridien wards.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 22:15:52 +0000

The Labour to Conservative swings between 1982 and 1992 may not be entirely as expected, though there are wards at either end of the spectrum that fit the kind of pattern one would have predicted. The problem with taking these two years is that both are highly atypical in different ways. 1982 saw a good Alliance vote spread fairly evenly but which obviously impacted on the vote shares of the main two parties. 1992 was an abnormally good Conservative result. Comparisons between more normal years might be more illuminating, though it might be hard to define ‘normal’

In 1982 the Conservatives were 3.5% ahead of Labour in the popular vote in Birmingham. In 1992 the lead was 14.0% – so a swing over the decade of 5.3%
By ward the swings were in descending order:

Small Heath 20.2
Sparkbrook 19.6
Bartley Green 18.5
Sparkhill 12.6
Shard End 11.7
Longbridge 10.6
Oscott 10.3
Weoley 10.2
Billesley 9.3
Kingstanding 8.3
Kingsbury 6.8
Northfield 6.0
Harborne 5.9
Washwood Heath 5.4

Birmingham 5.3

Soho 4.8
Hodge Hill 4.5
Stockland Green 4.3
Sutton New Hall 3.7
Brandwood 3.4
Fox Hollies 3.4
Sutton Four Oaks 2.8
Sheldon 2.7
Yardley 2.7
King’s Norton 2.4
Hall Green 1.9
Handsworth 1.2
Sutton Vesey 0.7
Acock’s Green 0.3
Aston 0.2
Ladywood -0.5
Edgbaston -1.0
Bournville -1.2
Erdington -1.2
Quinton -1.5
Selly Oak -2.3
Nechells -3.3
Sandwell -4.7
Moseley -5.7
Perry Barr -8.4

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 10:00:22 +0000

In 1982 the Conservatives won 20 wards to 17 Labour and 2 for the Alliance. In 1992 the overall figures were a similar 21-15-3 but there was a fair amount of churn

Conservative wards in 1982

Acock’s Green
Bournville
Brandwood
Edgbaston
Erdington
Hall Green
Harborne
Hodge Hill
Moseley
Northfield
Oscott
Perry Barr
Quinton
Sandwell
Selly Oak
Sheldon
Sutton Four Oaks
Sutton New Hall
Sutton Vesey
Yardley

Labour

Aston
Bartley Green
Billesley
Fox Hollies
Handsworth
King’s Norton
Kingstanding
Longbridge
Nechells
Shard End
Small Heath
Soho
Sparkbrook
Sparkhill
Stockland Green
Washwood Heath
Weoley

Alliance

Kingsbury
Ladywood

The changes in 1992 were
LD ‘gain’ from Con

Acocks Green
Sheldon
Yardley

Lab ‘gain’ from Alliance

Kingsbury
Ladywood

Lab ‘gain’ from Con

Sandwell

Con ‘gain’ from Lab

Bartley Green
Billesley
Longbridge
Shard End
Weoley

I shall try and work out the swings later

By: richard

richard — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 22:24:40 +0000

Which wards did the Conservatives win in Birmingham in 1982 and in 1992.

And, if possible, what were the swings per ward over the decade.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 12:17:37 +0000

I don’t think that analysis is quite right. Edgbaston and Selly oak are obviously different animals, but I would not say Northfield is much more MIddle Class than Perry Barr. In terms of dicsussing the seats of Northfield and Perry Barr as they were in 1970 or 1979 they are pretty similar really. The Perry Barr seat of today has a large non-white population becuase it includes the two Handsworth wards but before 1983 it comprised only of Oscott, Perry Barr and Kingstanding and would have been almost entirely white in 1970 and 1979. There has been some kind of divergence between north Birmingham and demographiocally comparable areas in the south (ie not Edgbaston, but areas like Northfield and Kings Norton). Northfield was safely Labour in 1964 while Perry Barr was a Conservative gain against the trend that year. Clearly that result was affected by the immigration isssue, but not because of an influx of immigrants into that seat, but into neighbouring seats.
In fact though there was this difference between the winners in 1970 and 1979 the results were still not disimilar. Both seats were won with a majority of around 1200 in 1970 and with a three figure majority in 1979. But it does appear that after 1979 there was this divergence and this was also refelcetd in local elections. IN good years in the 80s the Tories would win marginal seats in the north such as Erdington, Oscott, Hodge Hill as well as those in the south whereas latterly (with the exception of their renaissance in Erdington) have struggled in the former marginals in the north while doing better in former Labour strongholds in the south like Longbridge and Kings Norton.
I’m not sure what the answer to Peter’s question is – some complex mixture of ethnic and class factors plus a bit of personal voting (eg for Geoff Rooker in Perry Barr), but I certainly wouldn’t dismiss the premise.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 06:02:21 +0000

That analysis is simplistic and misleading.

South East Birmingham ie. Sparkbrook and Small Heath has always been very strongly Labour.

Northfield, Selly Oak and Edgbaston are much more middle class and have seen less immigration, at least until the last 10-20 years. The influence of the university and public sector middle class has swung Edgbaston and Selly Oak away from the Tories, factors that were not that decisive in the 1980s.

Perry Barr and Erdington are much more working class, and at least in the case of the former there are more immigrants and they are of longer standing.