Birmingham Hodge Hill
2010 Results:
Conservative: 4936 (11.62%)
Labour: 22077 (51.98%)
Liberal Democrat: 11775 (27.72%)
BNP: 2333 (5.49%)
UKIP: 714 (1.68%)
Others: 637 (1.5%)
Majority: 10302 (24.26%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20548 (50.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 10373 (25.6%)
Conservative: 4439 (11%)
Other: 5090 (12.6%)
Majority: 10175 (25.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 3768 (13.3%)
Labour: 13822 (48.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 8373 (29.5%)
BNP: 1445 (5.1%)
UKIP: 680 (2.4%)
Other: 329 (1.2%)
Majority: 5449 (19.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 5283 (20%)
Labour: 16901 (63.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 2147 (8.1%)
UKIP: 275 (1%)
BNP: 889 (3.4%)
Other: 970 (3.7%)
Majority: 11618 (43.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8198 (24%)
Labour: 22398 (65.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 2891 (8.5%)
Other: 660 (1.9%)
Majority: 14200 (41.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Liam Byrne(Labour) born 1970, Warrington. Educated at Burnt Mill School and Manchester University. Prior to his election worked for Accenture, NM Rothschild and founded a technology company. First elected as MP for Birmingham Hodge Hill in the 2004 by-election. Under-secretary of state in the department of Health 2005-2006, Minister of State in the Home Office 2006-2008, in the Cabinet Office 2008-2009. Chief Secretary to the Treasury from 2009 to 2010, famously leaving his sucessor David Laws a letter saying “There is no money left”. Shadow work and pensions secretary since 2011 (more information at They work for you)
Shailesh Parekh (Conservative) Liam Byrne(Labour) born 1970, Warrington. Educated at Burnt Mill School and Manchester University. Prior to his election worked for Accenture, NM Rothschild and founded a technology company. First elected as MP for Birmingham Hodge Hill in the 2004 by-election. Under-secretary of state in the department of Health 2005-2006, Minister of State in the Home Office 2006-2008, in the Cabinet Office 2008-2009. Chief Secretary to the Treasury since 2009 (more information at They work for you)Tariq Khan (Liberal Democrat) Birmingham councillor between 1994-2002 and since 2003. Former Deputy group leader.Waheed Rafiq (UKIP)Richard Lumby (BNP) Peter Johnson (Social Democrat)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 107826
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 32.3%
Over 60: 17.3%
Born outside UK: 21.6%
White: 54.4%
Black: 4.4%
Asian: 37.8%
Mixed: 2.7%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 46.4%
Muslim: 35.8%
Sikh: 0.8%
Full time students: 4.5%
Graduates 16-74: 8.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 49.4%
Owner-Occupied: 57%
Social Housing: 32.3% (Council: 25.7%, Housing Ass.: 6.6%)
Privately Rented: 6.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 31.7%
This redrawn seat will contain the two heavily white wards of Hodge Hill and Shard End and the two mostly Asian wards of Washwood Heath and Bordesley Green. Most of the constituency is deprived with no notable middle-class vote of the kind found in other Birmingham seats. Lib Dems have made inroads at council level – most recently thanks to their being joined by two councillors from the disbanded Kashmiri ‘People’s Justice Party’ – and will be targeting Bordesley Green and Hodge Hill wards for further gains in 2007. However, their chance to win the parliamentary seat came and went in the 2004 by-election and the next election will see HH reverting to safe Labour territory.
No Respect candidate stood in the old Hodge Hill. That makes it hard to compare with the Sparkbrook/Small Heath seat. Certainly I think the new Hodge Hill will feel the flavour of the latter seat, where decades of solid Labour support have become shaky of late. The electorate in these seats is not New Labour, or even Old Labour but has generally been Nowhere-else- to-go-but-Labour.
Blaenau Gwent, Bethnal Green & Bow, you can’t take seats like this for granted anymore.
Yes but BG and BG&B both had very distinctive electoral circumstances, which Hodge Hill will not have. Certainly a Respect candidate would get nowhere in Hodge Hill and Shard End and would have to rely on the Bordesley Green/Washwood Heath vote, which is complicated by the fact the PJP (or some of them) are now part of the Lib Dems. Unless Liam Byrne is overwhelmed by scandal, which I don’t expect, this seat is now secure.
What if however, all that respect vote fom Small Heath goes to the LDs on mass? That makes the seat much more marginal and a much better LD prospect than the old Hodge Hill? I used to live in Blake Lane and I always felt Labour support in the ward was bulit on foundations of sand…
It shows how Britain has changed that the Tories could win a by-election here in 1977.
It does, doesn’t it. Apart from the fact that Birmingham Stechford really didn’t look much like Hodge Hill, as it in had Stechford in it and it didn’t have Bordesley Green and if I remember correctly it didn’t have Washwood Heath, half of which used to be Nechells anyway.
Bordesley Green wasnt includd in Hodge HIll at the time of the byelection eiteher or in 2005 – it will only join after the next election.
There will now be three seats in Birmingham which uneasily combine Asian dominated inner city areas with predominantly white suburban areas – Hall Green, Perry Barr and this seat. To have one such seat seems unavoidable but the situation here could be resolved in such a way to create constituencies of more common interest.
I would advocate that Hodge Hill and Shard End from this seat be joined with Erdington and Tyburn (Birmingham Erdington). The other two wards from Erdington – Stockland Green and Kingstanding could join with Perry Barr and Oscott (Birmingham Perry Barr). That would leave the two Handswroth wards to join with Soho and Ladywood in a western inner city seat (Birmingham Ladywood and Handsworth) and Aston, Nechells, Bordesley and Washwood Heath to form an eastern inner city seat (Birmingham Small Heath or Aston or Bordesely or Duddeston – you can take your pick from the names available there.
Pete, i think your logic is fundamentaly wrong i think mixed seats are a very good thing as they force different communities to work together and it menas politicians like Godsiff, Byrne or Mahmood have to work across boundaries in areas were they may not enjoy natural support. I think Godsiff is less good at this but Mahmood and Byrne have turned it into a fine art since being elected.
I think Gordon is just upset that i’m advocating the dismemberment of his own constituency
Seriously though.. I take the point. I do think though that the boundary commision has some regard to ‘natural communities of interest’ and that in Birmingham it is possible to do this in the way I describe. I am not going so far as to advocate the kind of minority districts that are contrived in the United states often by the most convaluted boundaries.
I dont think there is likely to be much in the way of partisan effect since all four seats would still be safely Labour (notwithstanding the rather erratic voting behaviour of pakistani muslim voters in Birmingham in recent years)
Pete – the ‘communities of interest’ were taken into consideration in the boundary review. This is why Sparkbrook and Springfield were eventually put together in Hall Green when the initial proposal was to split them between Hall Green and Yardley – the two wards are geographically close and demographically very similar so it made no sense to split them up.
The problem with your proposal is that it groups together areas which are quite geographically distinct solely on a demographic basis.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7074640.stm
Byrne fined over car mobile use
Mr Byrne has been a home office minister since May 2006
Immigration minister Liam Byrne has been fined £100 after admitting using his mobile phone while driving.
The Birmingham Hodge Hill MP was also ordered to pay £35 costs and given three points on his licence at Sutton Coldfield Magistrates’ Court.
Mr Byrne, who pleaded guilty by letter, said he had been taking an important call on a deportation matter but there was no excuse and he was remorseful.
The former police minister was stopped on 6 July on Birmingham’s Tyburn Road.
Mr Byrne, 37, who is also minister for the West Midlands, admitted an offence under the Road Traffic Act 1988.
Well, at least he was working on a constituency or ministerial matter – mind you, I’d have made an example of him, because he should have known better. I’ve never seen the point in charging anyone a nominal amount for costs when it must surely run into hundreds of pounds to have ‘em up in court. I’m about as far as you can get from a hanger and flogger, but I’d make the law sting, especially when someone can afford to pay.
Given that Byrne was originally elected on the most vicious and mendacious personal campaign against an opponent who happened to work for the mobile phone industry, I hope that as I type FOCUS leaflets are going out pointing out Byrne’s hypocrisy.
I certainly hope that Byrne gets what he rightly deserves.
This issue clearly will not destroy Byrne but locally he must get a knock down and the fairly large level of press attention will do him no good. I can’t imagine we will hear any more hypocrisy from Byrne for a long time as Liberal Observer rightly points out.
This is certainly a damaging and embarrassing incident for one of Labour’s “rising stars”, who was once Minster for police!
I agree that it is a serious offence. I get extremely annoyed at people driving while using mobile phones.
The notion that a Focus leaflet is the best way of exposing hypocrisy is however one with which I cannot agree.
Barnaby you are right this man needs to be made an example of through the most important form of public exposure, electorally and not just through leaflets. I think his defence of taking a business call is more disgraceful than the incident itself.
Being a cyclist i know i am at the mercy of drivers and their foulish ways. This is a perfect example of the kind i see every day. Perhaps Liam will set up a campaign against the use of mobiles while driving and then leave it for someone credible to take on.
A typical career man if you ask me.
I would have thought that the chances Liam Byrne may be sacked at the next reshuffle were quite high. Not only following his embarrassing incident with the mobile phone recently, but also due to his absolutely appauling performance when being questioned by Andrew Neil on the Daily Politics last week. His performance was probably one of the most embarrassing examples of a minister not knowing what he’s talking about that I have ever seen.
I’m not sure. Media capability can be entriely disconnected from administrative capability, and Liam Byrne appears to be smiled on by the powers that be. Of course, the ability to perform well in interviews does matter (probably too much) but it’s unlikely to be the sole criterion.
But I think you must accept, Barnaby, a propos a discussion we had on a different thread, that the personalised campaign against Nichola Davis by Liam Byrne and his team at the Hodge Hill byelection was yet another example of precisely the sort of campaign you have complained about by Liberal Democrats and said you did not believe the Labour Party undertook.
Whilst I’ve not been following this discussion between Barnaby and Ian, I would personally welcome Labour or the Tories using the Lib Dem by-election tactics against them. I know that ideally we should be above that level of nastiness, but it’s high time the Lib Dems took some of their own medicine!
Shaun Bennett the Labour tactics in Hodge Hill were dishonest and should have ended up in the courts. They included the usual bullying and intimidation.
If you are going to insinuate that Liberal Democrat by-election campaigns use physical intimidation or violence, name names – or shut up and stop lying.
Well he can’t name names because it would be libellous and I’d delete it. That said, if you are going to insinuate that the Labour party’s campaigns usually involve bullying and intimidation you too should name names (somewhere else, obviously, because I’d delete it here) or shut up and stop lying
Generally speaking I think there is very little point discussing which party are dirty campaigners on a site that’s supposed to be non-partisan. Labour and Conservative activists always think the Liberal Democrats are, the Liberal Democrats always think one or other or both of Labour and the Conservative are. I’m sure in reality there are local campaigns by all parties who do some pretty negative things, and local camapaigns by all parties who are as pure as the driven snow. It doesn’t serve us to tar whole parties with the same brush, it only leads to partisan arguments.
When there are individual cases where it is worth commenting on, then I’m sure we can do it in a neutral, non-partisan fashion. It’s possible to say that the Lib Dems in Bromley campaigned very successfully by highlighting Bob Neill’s other jobs and calling him “3 Jobs Bob” without saying you approve of it, same as saying the Labour were able to use Nicola Davies occupation and her work with Nokia against her in the Hodge Hill by-election without going into one about how wicked and evil it was.
Byrne’s a smarmy character and I have always thought came across as very arrogant indeed. I would welcome this man’s defeat alongside Sion Simon but of course – as with Simon – I suspect he will hang on as his majority is just too huge to dislodge at this time.
Great shame…….
I actually live in this seat and campaigned for Nicola Davis in both 2004 and 2005. I think what ruined it for Nicola in 2005 was the campaign was just a rehash of her 2004 and Labour’s dirty tricks ruined it for her too.
Byrne is smarmy, but he is doing a fairly decent job, but the Lib Dems are picking seats up in Washwood Heath and Stechford and Yardley North, even a councillor in Hodge Hill! Me thinks Byrne has another fight on his hands and may lose the battle.
All the Lib Dems need to is, persaude the loyal Labour voters of Shard End (which I unfortunately come under in local elections) to switch sides and have that winning campaign.
On to Sion Simon, how did he become an MP? If he’s an MP, there is hope for all of us
Stechford will not be in this seat but the Yardley seat.
Shard End is now the only white working class ward in the city which is safe for Labour. All of the others are either marginal or have fallen to other parties.
On the subject of Sion Simon, the local election results in Erdington cant have been very comforting for him, although I think it would be a huge ask to get him ousted in one go, the result there next time could be worth watching.
As to Hodge Hill, I can’t help but think the narrower majority last time for Labour had more to do with ‘by-election hangover’ than anything else… although the LibDems have been slowly encroaching there recently. In what could be a bad election for Labour across Brum, I can’t see HH being at risk.
In the end I’d have expected LibDem efforts to be very much focused on Perry Barr and Hall Green, while Conservative attentions (beyond Egbaston) seem likely to pinned on Selly Oaks, Northfield and (to a lesser extent) Erdington.
hiya, i needed some information for my coursework but im strugling, i dont understand this website i just thought i’d let u know
Aggregate votes from the 2008 local elections;
Lab 11715 43.2%
LD 10075 37.1%
C 2511 9.3%
BNP 1959 7.2%
Grn 651 2.4%
UKIP 176 0.6%
NF 43 0.2%
What information do you need Jade?
Indeed-Jade, by all means ask questions and I’m sure we’ll all try to come up with answers
Be a bit more specific Jade, and I’m sure we’ll all try to please.
Solid Labour seat, not the nicest of areas either.
Labour to hold with an increased majority.
Byrne oozes smarminess, he is just too polished by half. Having said that, by most accounts he did a very good job as the West Midland’s Minister. I was certainly impressed by the effort and time he spent on our recent West Midlands Consultation paper.
I suspect he’s got a bright future in the PLP, if only his slaves – sorry civil servants – could remember when to being him his soup..
;P
DDAVE3 – Don’t forget the cappuccino!
I got a very poor impression of Byrne at the byelection, and I have to say, he is one of those Ministers / Shadows I feel it necessary to turn off or shout at the TV screen about / at!
As well as being one of the smarmiest and most irritating of government ministers, Byrne also looks massively old for his age. He is only 38 but looks more like 60, with his completely bald head and old-man face. He proves that it’s not just Tory Boys who can be young fogeys!
I wish you wouldn’t use the name of a national legend to launch petty and spiteful attacks.
(Unless it is really your name).
On the seat, it is clearly safe for Labour.
(Apologies if it is your name, of course).
And I wish you wouldn’t go around presuming that you can tell people what they can call themselves and what they can and can’t say on here like you own the site.
I wouldn’t say his appearance is here or there, to be honest Jimmy.
His politics are far more interesting and from what I have gathered from brief meetings is that he is firmly in the Christian Socialist camp of the PLP.
“I wouldn’t say his appearance is here or there, to be honest Jimmy.”
Not that it’s important, I just happened to notice that he looks much older than his years that’s all.
Personally I don’t like the man at all, but you have to admit he’s got a pretty impressive CV for a Labour MP
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liam_Byrne
White van maker LDV, based in this area, has gone into administration. About 800 people are employed there with “several thousand” staff employed by suppliers according to the BBC news website.
The Conservatives have selected Shailesh Parekh here.
Birmingham Stechford by-election, 1977
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Andrew MacKay 15,731 43.4 +15.6
Labour Terry Davis 13,782 38.0 -19.6
National Front Andrew Brons 2,955 8.2 N/A
Liberal Graham Gopsill 2,901 8.0 -6.4
International Marxist Brian Heron 494 1.4
Socialist Workers Paul Foot 377 1.0
Turnout 36,240
Conservative gain from Labour
Waheed Rafiq is the UKIP PPC for this seat
There’s a pretty big difference here between the R&T notional figures and the Wells figures:
R+T, Lab majority = 17.1%
Wells, Lab majority = 25.2%
I have been living in Shard End for nearly a decade and the area (crescent shopping) was promised a redevelopment but till day there is no major movement, our neighbourhood office is ageing one, some of our park become no go zone for our young families (it is incredible to see the very poor play area). It is time to our residents say their verdict. Lab has been wining since 1966….
Lab Hold= 7,000 maj
Impact of Boundary Change, LDV, & Liam’s personality and voting record:
Notwithstanding the New Labour party machinary coming to Liam’s aid, assuming a direct transfer to the Lib-Dems of the 2005 votes for Respect & Lim-Dems from Small Heath & Bordesley Green and the loss of 2005 Labour votes for Labour Govt failing to support LDV.. one can expect a very strong swing in favour of Lib Dems here.
The Lib-dem no tax for first 10K should also be attractive to the low-wage earners in this constituency.
Lab hold maj 5000