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Birmingham Hodge Hill

2010 Results:
Conservative: 4936 (11.62%)
Labour: 22077 (51.98%)
Liberal Democrat: 11775 (27.72%)
BNP: 2333 (5.49%)
UKIP: 714 (1.68%)
Others: 637 (1.5%)
Majority: 10302 (24.26%)

Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20548 (50.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 10373 (25.6%)
Conservative: 4439 (11%)
Other: 5090 (12.6%)
Majority: 10175 (25.2%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 3768 (13.3%)
Labour: 13822 (48.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 8373 (29.5%)
BNP: 1445 (5.1%)
UKIP: 680 (2.4%)
Other: 329 (1.2%)
Majority: 5449 (19.2%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 5283 (20%)
Labour: 16901 (63.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 2147 (8.1%)
UKIP: 275 (1%)
BNP: 889 (3.4%)
Other: 970 (3.7%)
Majority: 11618 (43.9%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 8198 (24%)
Labour: 22398 (65.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 2891 (8.5%)
Other: 660 (1.9%)
Majority: 14200 (41.6%)

Boundary changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: Liam Byrne(Labour) born 1970, Warrington. Educated at Burnt Mill School and Manchester University. Prior to his election worked for Accenture, NM Rothschild and founded a technology company. First elected as MP for Birmingham Hodge Hill in the 2004 by-election. Under-secretary of state in the department of Health 2005-2006, Minister of State in the Home Office 2006-2008, in the Cabinet Office 2008-2009. Chief Secretary to the Treasury from 2009 to 2010, famously leaving his sucessor David Laws a letter saying “There is no money left”. Shadow work and pensions secretary since 2011 (more information at They work for you)

2010 election candidates:
portraitShailesh Parekh (Conservative)
portraitLiam Byrne(Labour) born 1970, Warrington. Educated at Burnt Mill School and Manchester University. Prior to his election worked for Accenture, NM Rothschild and founded a technology company. First elected as MP for Birmingham Hodge Hill in the 2004 by-election. Under-secretary of state in the department of Health 2005-2006, Minister of State in the Home Office 2006-2008, in the Cabinet Office 2008-2009. Chief Secretary to the Treasury since 2009 (more information at They work for you)
portraitTariq Khan (Liberal Democrat) Birmingham councillor between 1994-2002 and since 2003. Former Deputy group leader.
portraitWaheed Rafiq (UKIP)
portraitRichard Lumby (BNP)
portraitPeter Johnson (Social Democrat)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 107826
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 32.3%
Over 60: 17.3%
Born outside UK: 21.6%
White: 54.4%
Black: 4.4%
Asian: 37.8%
Mixed: 2.7%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 46.4%
Muslim: 35.8%
Sikh: 0.8%
Full time students: 4.5%
Graduates 16-74: 8.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 49.4%
Owner-Occupied: 57%
Social Housing: 32.3% (Council: 25.7%, Housing Ass.: 6.6%)
Privately Rented: 6.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 31.7%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

81 Responses to “Birmingham Hodge Hill”

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  1. Lab Hold

    Maj 7800

  2. BNP have selected Richard Lumby

  3. Lab maj 6,000

  4. Given the surge in LD national support, adjacency of the seat to Yardley & the popular support LD have enjoyed in Washwood Heath previously, is their any chance of this tilting into the yellow column?

  5. Full List

    Liam BYRNE (Labour)
    Peter JOHNSON (SDP)
    Tariq KHAN (Lib Dem)
    Richard LUMBY (BNP)
    Shailesh PAREKH (Conservative)
    Waheed RAFIQ (UKIP)

    I’m not joking, that really is “SDP”…..

  6. Why would anyone be surprised that the SDP are standing here given that it is where their leader lives?

  7. LAB HOLD

  8. I think this is going to be very close.

  9. Has anyone noticed that Cameron seems not to like Byrne. He has insulted him numerous times at PMQ’s even calling him ”Baldimore”!!!

  10. It was Baldimort (reference to Vordemort from Harry Potter)

  11. In the end it wasn’t terribly close

  12. Two factors gave Labour an easy win: the unwind effect from the 2004 by-election and the boundary changes which were favourable to Labour.

  13. Is Alum Rock in this constituency?

  14. In the local elections this year Labour won 8,268 votes or 89% in the Washwood Heath ward. The total electorate was 20,113. Their majority was 7,845. The second placed candidate won 4.5%.

  15. Birmingham elections never fail to entertain.
    To answer the previous post, Alum rock is indeed in this constituency, in the Washwood Heath ward

  16. Liam Byrne is confirming that he is to stand down from the shadow cabinet in May to contest the Labour nomination for mayor of Birmingham if it is introduced (as it seems likely) in May.

    This was of course after he has already denied that he will seek the nomination for the position of course…

    Looks like another potential by-election here at the end of the year, and another easy Labour win in a Labour held seat.

    If Cardiff South and Manchester Central also come up around that time it will mean an astonishing number of by-elections this parliament ALL in safe Labour held inner city seats!

  17. “If Cardiff South and Manchester Central also come up around that time it will mean an astonishing number of by-elections this parliament ALL in safe Labour held inner city seats!”

    you can get Coventry North too. Ainsworth would like to be Coventry’s first mayor

  18. Its starting to look very like the majority of the Labour group elected in 2010 may have changed by the time we get to 2015 :-)

  19. It would look quite silly for him if he isn’t nominated as the mayoral candidate having resigned a decent post, and there maybe no guarantee that he would return to the cabinet. If I was him, I would have stood down from cabinet after I was selected as Mayoral Candidate.

    It would be interesting who would replace Byrne as Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary. Would Labour select a member of the new intake, or would they have a full scale reshuffle?

  20. After his gaffes in the past, I’m surprised Ed Miliband feels he still needs him around anyway.

  21. Would Liam Byrne resign as an MP if he were to win the mayoralty of Birmingham, or would he resign on becoming a candidate?
    After last night the Labour Party are probably hoping the good folk of Birmingham will reject the creation of the post come 3rd May.

  22. Labour NEC decided that MPs wanting to become Mayors/PCs should resign after being selected but before the election (so the by-election can take place on the same day)

    I don’t know if there’s a law not allowing to hold both positions but considering the salaries involved they are supposed to be full time “jobs”. So I think it’s right for main parties to “impose” on their MPs to resign if they become Mayors or PCs

    Today Birmingham Labour group leader withdrew from the race to back Byrne as Mayor

  23. Salma Yaqoob may be MP for this seat by the end of the year if Labour aren’t careful.

  24. I agree with Andy JS.
    Liam “there is no money left” Byrne may be the last Labour member for this seat for some time…

  25. If Byrne is the mayoral candidate, this will be an interesting test of whether Bradford West was a one-off, especially if Galloway camps out in Birmingham to campaign for her. Salma Yaqoob did very well in Sparkbrook in 2005 & Hall Green in 2010, but Hodge Hill has a somewhat lower Muslim vote- under the 2005 configuration it was about 19%, compared to 48% in Sparkbrook in 2005 and 38% in West Bradford. Further, Byrne has seemed to solidify his hold on the seat since 2004, and won with 52% in 2010.

    Basically, it’ll test once and for all Respect’s claim that the core Muslim vote wasn’t primarily responsible for their win in Bradford. Galloway may have won some non-Muslim and student wards, but Yaqoob would need to do incredibly well beyond Respect’s natural vote to win. Plus, Labour are probably much better off trying to defend this seat from a possible Respect attempt than Edgebaston from the Tories if Gisela Stuart is the mayoral candidate.

  26. Agree with Mr Bidgood, but the Muslim population is much higher than 19% in this seat. The Bordesley Green and Washwood Heath wards are both around 70-75% Muslim, and Ward End (in Hodge Hill) has a growing Muslim population. Under the current configuration the Muslim population is only a little less than in Hall Green.

    However the politics of this part of Muslim East Birmingham are not the same as those south of the canal, and Salma Yaqoob will have less traction here, although the demographics that led to her success in Sparkbrook in 2005, and Galloway’s in Bradford are the same – a revolt against patriarchal politics amongst young Muslims and women.

    Galloway must have taken a significant number of white votes in Bradford. I can’t see that happening here.

    Personally I will be supporting Gisela Stuart if the mayoral refendum is positive. What does losing a by-election matter?

  27. The muslim population on these boundaries was 36% in 2001 – not much lower than the 38% in Bradford West (and actually fractionally higher than Hall Green). I think there are important differences. Labour has, in Shard End, an area of solid WWC support which does not have an equivalent in Bradford West. Secondly George Galloway appears to have been able to win over large numbers of Students. There are hardly any here and those there are are most likely local muslims living at home and studying at one of Birminghams Universities. In other words they do not offer a demographic source of support over and above the muslim core. If the muslim vote were to go over en masse to Respect however that would probably be enough due to differential turnout and more fragmented support amongst the white population.
    In 2010 turnout was 62% in Washwood Heath and only 47% in Shard End. I agree that hardly any WWC voters in Shard End would vote for Salma Yaqoob, but they wouldn’t need to for her to win. Of course the LDs very nearly won the previous by-election in this seat when again it was the Asian areas voting against Labour and Labour being just saved by the WWC outer areas. But the Asian section has been hugely augmented by the subsequent boundary changes.
    Ironically in the earlier incarnation fo Stechford, Labour lost another by-election to the Conservatives and then it was the WWC voters in Stechford and Shard End who did for them while the (then of course much smaller) Asian voters in the inner part of the seat remained loyal

  28. None of us expected more than a handful of white voters to support Galloway in Bradford West but they clearly did in order to give Labour a bloody nose. However unlikely it may seem they same thing can’t be ruled out happening again here.

  29. I simply can’t see it. The Labour voters in Shard End have consistently resisted a strong Liberal attempt to control the whole of East Birmingham.

    I would also make a quiet bet with Pete Whitehead that the 2011 census results due soon will show a higher Muslim population in Hall Green than in this seat. I have lived in both recently, and feel that the expansion of the Muslim community down the Stratford Road is faster than that into Ward End.

  30. I’d guess Liam Byrne won’t be resigning from his position from shadow cabinet after all following the no vote for mayor.

  31. Yes, but he still has a boundary review problem. Labour have chosen to support the Boundary Commission’s position on not splitting wards, and therefore the proposals for Birmingham (as it is a major intellectual feat to produce seats within the quotas in Birmingham with its 18,000 population wards, and therefore alternatives are minimal).

    Fighting Shabana Mahmood for the new Ladywood (which takes 2 of his wards – half the seat) isn’t going to work. Shard End is carved off into Solihull. He’ll have to fight Hemming in Yardley if he wants to stay in Parliament.

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