Comments on: Birmingham Erdington

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 11:01:19 +0000

Having made a blanket national policy decision not to do so, the Boundary Commission is not going to start splitting wards now. That would be akin basically to starting their whole review again from scratch, as every area would claim to be re-assessed on this basis.

I would not be so confident as John Chanin when he says in various areas that there’s no chance of this or that proposal going ahead. Unless there’s an alternative that keeps the seats in quota and doesn’t involve splitting wards, which in Birmingham is quite difficult to achieve, the initial proposals by default will go ahead.

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 20:07:36 +0000

I think Birmingham Northfield could now be the tories best chance in Birmingham depending on if the boundary commision allows wards such as Bartley Green etc to be split.

I really don’t know what will happen with the boundaries here.

By: Tory

Tory — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 10:33:41 +0000

The proposed Birmingham Erdington looks interesting. Both UKPR and the Electoral Calculus have it down as Conservative with a majority of just over 3000. Labour would need a swing of over 3.5% to win it. It is clearly the Conservatives’ best prospect among the ‘Birmingham’ seats, though the proposed Birmingham Harbourne and Birmingham Northfield look winnable if there is a swing to us next time.

By: Adrian Bailey

Adrian Bailey — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 16:52:55 +0000

Birmingham boundary hearings start tomorrow – Jack Dromey is on the speakers list I see. http://consultation.boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/public-hearings/birmingham/

It’ll be interesting to see how many politicians advocate splitting wards rather than follow their party line.

My blogposts on the Brum boundary review: http://ukelect.wordpress.com/category/birmingham/

By: John Chanin

John Chanin — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 21:19:50 +0000

No way will these proposals stand. Swapping Kingstanding and Sutton New Hall will leave both seats within quota, and the Commission will get thousands (yes really) of complaints about these proposals.

More interesting is what happens to Castle Bromwich, Coleshill, and Water Orton.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 01:03:00 +0000

This is an interesting change. It’s a fairly clear Conservative majority aswell.
Although they had done well here last time, I hadn’t expected to see Jack Dromey decapitated next time, but that now looks highly likley.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 14:58:17 +0000

Yes that would be interesting. Shame about splitting Sutton Coldfield’s 4 wards up though.

By: Paul D

Paul D — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 14:34:38 +0000

Proposed new seat would contain Erdington, Stockland Green, Sutton New Hall, Tyburn and take in Castle Bromwich (Solihull MDC) – certainly a marginal, probably leaning Tory at the moment but a likely Labour win at the next election (i.e. something of a bellweather seat)

By: David

David — Sun, 07 Aug 2011 14:54:10 +0000

Local Election results in 2011, with change on 2010
Lab 47.4% (+6.0%)
Con 36.7% (+2.2%)
LD 8.3% (-6.8%)
Oth 7.5% (-1.5%)

No wards changed hands, Lab held Kingstanding, Tyburn and Stockland Green, the Conservatives Erdington. Kingstanding was very interesting as the gap between Labour and the Conservatives reduced on the 2010 result (somewhat against the city-wide trend) from 7% to 3.5%. Both parties were up in share, but the Tories seemed to get slightly more from the fall in share for the Lib Dems and others. The demise of the BNP is notably, I read they almost won this in 2006, they got just 7% in 2011. Erdington itself didnt shift much, although it was a little towards Labour (as again both of the main parties increased their share). Tyburn and Stockland Green both saw reasonable increaes in Labour’s share, the Tories were down a bit in the former, but held steady in the latter.

By: Louise

Louise — Thu, 23 Jun 2011 22:17:58 +0000

They held this seat by more than one of the neighbouring Sutton Coldfield seats. Indeed I am unsure if there is another seat in the Country that the Conservatives didnt have a Councillor in until 2006 and yet hold all 3 Councillors now against Labour?