Birmingham Erdington
2010 Results:
Conservative: 11592 (32.61%)
Labour: 14869 (41.83%)
Liberal Democrat: 5742 (16.15%)
BNP: 1815 (5.11%)
UKIP: 842 (2.37%)
Christian: 217 (0.61%)
Independent: 240 (0.68%)
Others: 229 (0.64%)
Majority: 3277 (9.22%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16952 (52.9%)
Conservative: 7298 (22.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5082 (15.9%)
Other: 2725 (8.5%)
Majority: 9654 (30.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7235 (22.8%)
Labour: 16810 (53%)
Liberal Democrat: 5027 (15.8%)
BNP: 1512 (4.8%)
UKIP: 746 (2.3%)
Other: 416 (1.3%)
Majority: 9575 (30.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7413 (24.2%)
Labour: 17375 (56.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3602 (11.8%)
UKIP: 521 (1.7%)
Other: 1693 (5.5%)
Majority: 9962 (32.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11107 (27.5%)
Labour: 23764 (58.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4112 (10.2%)
Referendum: 1424 (3.5%)
Majority: 12657 (31.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Jack Dromey (Labour)
Robert Alden (Conservative) Jack Dromey (Labour)Ann Holtom (Liberal Democrat) Maria Foy (UKIP) Kevin McHugh (BNP) Timothy Gray (Christian Party) Terry Williams (National Front)Tony Tomkins (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90654
Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%
Under 18: 25.9%
Over 60: 20.2%
Born outside UK: 9.5%
White: 85.3%
Black: 5.8%
Asian: 5.2%
Mixed: 3%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 70.1%
Hindu: 0.8%
Muslim: 3.4%
Sikh: 1%
Full time students: 4.2%
Graduates 16-74: 11.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 42%
Owner-Occupied: 57.5%
Social Housing: 31.6% (Council: 20.8%, Housing Ass.: 10.7%)
Privately Rented: 6.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 24.1%
He didn’t.
Put Dromey started off with a negative vote and Robert Alden (unlike his mother it seems) has a significant personal vote.
He was elected for Erdington ward at the same time with a majority of 1549 which was the highest Conservative majority in any Birmnigham ward if you discount those in Sutton.
There is also the factor that the Cosnervatives did best in the WWC constituencies of Erdington, Northfield and Yardley and poorly in the middle class constituencies of Edgbaston, Selly Oak and Hall Green.
Does anyone know if any of the Conservative campaign litrature in this seat had the word ‘grunwick’ on it.
If it did then that might explain the big anti-labour swing. I know the North East Birmingham area and I doubt many people would have heared of Jack Dromey before he was selected, but with a bit of background information they would have found out about his role in the trade union movement. To some swing voters he may have come accross as at best an old style lefty union man, and at worst, the class enemy.
I have a feeling Labour might just loose this seat at the next Election. I predict a Tory majority of about 200 – 300.
That would be marvellous, but I still think it’s a bit early to make predictions for something that could be four and a half years away.
Votedave, if theres a pro tory swing and boundary changes add to the seat any of the Sutton wards, then a tory gain should be on the cards.
Sutton South and Erdington would be an interesting marginal.
Dromey’s attitude on election night really left a nasty taste.
In 1997, I didn’t take such a sour attitude (although there was absolutely no doubt the Tories had lost).
But I very much doubt Grunwick, even if it had been mentioned, would move more than a handful of votes.
It’s a very high swing for Birmingham, so would be interested to know why.
Jack Dromey’s obnoxiousness is exceeded only by that of his wife
Someone giving the clear implication that their government should refuse to go after an election defeat tells you a lot,
and crosses the line of British fair play.
It was an ugly moment.
He boldly stated “This country does not want a Conservative government.” to which Jeremy Paxman pointed out that Labour’s share of the vote in 2005 had been lower.
Yes.
Although I also believe Labour had every right to govern in 2005.
And if there had been a 10.4% swing nationally (as there was here) there would be a Conservative landslide.
Dromey’s attitude was an utter disgrace.
I would not do the same thing the other way round.
Joe James B, I supose you’re right about the Grunwick factor, although if Dromey had stood in a marginal in North London at the 1979 election, it would have swung a lot more votes.
He also tried to get selected for Wolverhampton North East and failed. And he lost the selection battle for Pontefract and Castleford to a then unknown Yvette Cooper in 1997. Whever he has tried to get selected for a safe labour seat he has caused contraversy amongst constituency parties which don’t want to have a left wing candidate forced upon them.
In Labour Party terms left wing is an over-simplification of where Jack Dromey stands – as befits the husband of the deputy leader, he does not generally have bad relations with the leadership, unlike most of the Campaign Group. A position slightly left of centre within the party would be more accurate.
The boundary changes here will be very interesting. The Conservatives here ran a very Lib Dem style campaign where they stuck to local issues and banged on about what Robert Alden had done for the area compared to Labour. The power of such a campaign was clear from the result.
Interesting that the Conservatives easily held Erdington ward despite losing more traditional Conservative wards.
As Erdington elected 3 Labour councillors in 2004 is there any other ward which is still all blue?
They held this seat by more than one of the neighbouring Sutton Coldfield seats. Indeed I am unsure if there is another seat in the Country that the Conservatives didnt have a Councillor in until 2006 and yet hold all 3 Councillors now against Labour?
Local Election results in 2011, with change on 2010
Lab 47.4% (+6.0%)
Con 36.7% (+2.2%)
LD 8.3% (-6.8%)
Oth 7.5% (-1.5%)
No wards changed hands, Lab held Kingstanding, Tyburn and Stockland Green, the Conservatives Erdington. Kingstanding was very interesting as the gap between Labour and the Conservatives reduced on the 2010 result (somewhat against the city-wide trend) from 7% to 3.5%. Both parties were up in share, but the Tories seemed to get slightly more from the fall in share for the Lib Dems and others. The demise of the BNP is notably, I read they almost won this in 2006, they got just 7% in 2011. Erdington itself didnt shift much, although it was a little towards Labour (as again both of the main parties increased their share). Tyburn and Stockland Green both saw reasonable increaes in Labour’s share, the Tories were down a bit in the former, but held steady in the latter.
Proposed new seat would contain Erdington, Stockland Green, Sutton New Hall, Tyburn and take in Castle Bromwich (Solihull MDC) – certainly a marginal, probably leaning Tory at the moment but a likely Labour win at the next election (i.e. something of a bellweather seat)
Yes that would be interesting. Shame about splitting Sutton Coldfield’s 4 wards up though.
This is an interesting change. It’s a fairly clear Conservative majority aswell.
Although they had done well here last time, I hadn’t expected to see Jack Dromey decapitated next time, but that now looks highly likley.
No way will these proposals stand. Swapping Kingstanding and Sutton New Hall will leave both seats within quota, and the Commission will get thousands (yes really) of complaints about these proposals.
More interesting is what happens to Castle Bromwich, Coleshill, and Water Orton.
Birmingham boundary hearings start tomorrow – Jack Dromey is on the speakers list I see. http://consultation.boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/public-hearings/birmingham/
It’ll be interesting to see how many politicians advocate splitting wards rather than follow their party line.
My blogposts on the Brum boundary review: http://ukelect.wordpress.com/category/birmingham/
The proposed Birmingham Erdington looks interesting. Both UKPR and the Electoral Calculus have it down as Conservative with a majority of just over 3000. Labour would need a swing of over 3.5% to win it. It is clearly the Conservatives’ best prospect among the ‘Birmingham’ seats, though the proposed Birmingham Harbourne and Birmingham Northfield look winnable if there is a swing to us next time.
I think Birmingham Northfield could now be the tories best chance in Birmingham depending on if the boundary commision allows wards such as Bartley Green etc to be split.
I really don’t know what will happen with the boundaries here.
Having made a blanket national policy decision not to do so, the Boundary Commission is not going to start splitting wards now. That would be akin basically to starting their whole review again from scratch, as every area would claim to be re-assessed on this basis.
I would not be so confident as John Chanin when he says in various areas that there’s no chance of this or that proposal going ahead. Unless there’s an alternative that keeps the seats in quota and doesn’t involve splitting wards, which in Birmingham is quite difficult to achieve, the initial proposals by default will go ahead.
Lord Robin Corbett passed away from cancer on Sunday, aged 78.
H.Hemmelig
But in this case there is an alternative that doesn’t involve splitting wards. Even though a united front between the parties and the Boundary Commission not to split wards means we will have to live with some very strange constituencies in Birmingham.
Incidentally I should have pointed out again in my Hodge Hill comment that Liam Byrne doesn’t have a seat under the new proposals, so standing down to fight for Birmingham mayor is less of a surprise. If he stays in parliament he will have to fight Hemming at the next election, which while far from a hopeless cause is also not a guaranteed victory.
Birmingham Erdington 2012 Local Election Results with change on 2011
Lab 49.2% (+1.8%)
Con 35.2% (-1.6%)
Lib Dem 8.0% (-0.3%)
Oth 7.6% (+0.1%)
Con win Erdington, Labour won the other 3 seats at Stockland Green, Tyburn and Kingstanding
PCC elections in this constituency
Lab 34.65%
Con 23.99%
Ind Webley 16.09%
Ind Hannon 11.68%
UKIP 4.76%
Ind Rumble 4.52%
LD 4.3%
Second preferences: Lab 66.46% Con 33.54%
STAGE II Totals
Lab 60.47% Con 39.53%
If anyone could provide – or send a link to – the results of the 1936 Erdington by-election, I’d be awfully grateful
The result was
J.A.C Wright (Con) 27,068 56.5%
C.J. Simmons (Lab) 20,834 43.5%
Majority 6,234 13.0%
Simmons had been the Labour candidate in all the elections between 1924 and this by-election, being succesful in 1929
Pete, you’re a star, thank you
Labour, having lost all their seats in the West Midlands in 1931, failed to retake any Birmingham seats in 1935 & it wasn’t until 1945 that Simmons (known as Jim) re-entered Parliament for the then Birmingham W. This seat was abolished in 1950, and he was elected for Brierley Hill before finally losing there in 1959.