Birkenhead
2010 Results:
Conservative: 6687 (18.93%)
Labour: 22082 (62.51%)
Liberal Democrat: 6554 (18.55%)
Majority: 15395 (43.58%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20093 (64.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5933 (18.9%)
Conservative: 5256 (16.8%)
Other: 58 (0.2%)
Majority: 14160 (45.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 4602 (16.6%)
Labour: 18059 (65%)
Liberal Democrat: 5125 (18.4%)
Majority: 12934 (46.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 4827 (16.7%)
Labour: 20418 (70.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3722 (12.8%)
Majority: 15591 (53.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5982 (15.2%)
Labour: 27825 (70.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3548 (9%)
Referendum: 800 (2%)
Other: 1168 (3%)
Majority: 21843 (55.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Frank Field(Labour) Born 1942, London. Educated at St Clement Danes Boys Grammar School and Hull University. Prior to his election worker as a teacher and Director of the Low Pay Unit. Hounslow councillor 1964-1968. Contested South Buckinghamshire 1966. MP for Birkenhead since 1979. DHSS spokesman 1983-1984 before becoming Chair of the social services/security select committees for much of the 1980s and 1990s. Following the 1997 election he was made Minister of State for social security, with a brief to “think the unthinkable”. He resigned from the government the following year, reportedly having been refused a promotion to Secretary of State. He has subsequently been a consistent internal critic of the Labour government, leading the rebellion over the 10p tax rate and criticising Gordon Brown`s leadership. He is seen as something of a semi-detached member of the Labour party – he was a young Conservative in his youth, serves on the board of a free-market think tank (Reform), has praised Margaret Thatcher and is occassionally touted as a potential defection to the Conservative party. In 2009 he dropped out of the race to be speaker because of a lack of support from his own side of the House (more information at They work for you)
Andrew Gilbert (Conservative) Solicitor and lecturer. Huntingdonshire district councillor since 2006.Frank Field(Labour) Born 1942, London. Educated at St Clement Danes Boys Grammar School and Hull University. Prior to his election worker as a teacher and Director of the Low Pay Unit. Hounslow councillor 1964-1968. Contested South Buckinghamshire 1966. MP for Birkenhead since 1979. DHSS spokesman 1983-1984 before becoming Chair of the social services/security select committees for much of the 1980s and 1990s. Following the 1997 election he was made Minister of State for social security, with a brief to “think the unthinkable”. He resigned from the government the following year, reportedly having been refused a promotion to Secretary of State. He has subsequently been a consistent internal critic of the Labour government, leading the rebellion over the 10p tax rate and criticising Gordon Brown`s leadership. He is seen as something of a semi-detached member of the Labour party – he was a young Conservative in his youth, serves on the board of a free-market think tank (Reform), has praised Margaret Thatcher and is occassionally touted as a potential defection to the Conservative party. In 2009 he dropped out of the race to be speaker because of a lack of support from his own side of the House (more information at They work for you)
Stuart Kelly (Liberal Democrat) Electrician. Wirral councillor. Contested Ellesmere Port and Neston 2001, Birkenhead 2005.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84124
Male: 47%
Female: 53%
Under 18: 25.3%
Over 60: 20.4%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 97.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 79.2%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 14%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.5%
Owner-Occupied: 59.8%
Social Housing: 26.3% (Council: 16.5%, Housing Ass.: 9.8%)
Privately Rented: 11.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.4%
A Labour loss here other than the kind Matt envisages would surely mean the death of the Labour Party.
Also, neither the Conservatives or Lib Dems have much strength in this seat, other than in Claughton and Oxton respectively. This was a safe seat even in 1983, and as Votedave says, if Labour lose here, they are in serious trouble as a party.
Claughton is still a Labour ward and I doubt whether Oxton stays LibDem nationally : its a ‘nice’ area but its not Conservative, unlike many areas of the Wirral, its more Guardian-reader territory
The Conservatives have selected David Gilbert here. He is a Huntingdon councillor and (yet another) lawyer!
Matt – I’m glad my selection appeared on your radar but I need to correct you on a couple of things. First, my name is Andrew, not David. Second, although it is not inaccurate to call me a ‘lawyer’ that is not how I describe myself. I am a university lecturer and have been so for longer than I was in practice. As someone who works in the university sector I am therefore a rare breed as a Conservative candidate.
As to my ‘local’ credentials, my parents and much of my extended family live in the constituency. My family have lived there for at least 100 years and a number worked for Cammell Laird in its heyday. I believe that makes me more local than Frank Field when he first stood in Birkenhead!
It would be great to hear from you if you would be willing to help out in our campaign. Please feel free to email the association office at [email protected].
Thanks for all the input on my original comment.
Just a thought on if Frank was not there continues. All the bits of Rock Ferry and Tranmere areas seem to have been levelled – taking with it all my memories and stomping ground. More importantly it possibly has taken the core Labour voters.
Although I agree that it is still a Labout seat I do feel that the next Labour candidate will have a bad time ahead.
Merseyside can do surprises. My late Dad was a Mersey Pilot and there was a Pilot I believe called Malcolm Thornton who gained a seat and then lost it even though he had a 5 figure majority.
Birkenhead is changing rapidly and may well be a not so safe Labour place now. Who would have though Wallasey would change?
Because of the way that Tory Bliar and Gordon Brown have treated Frank Field, there is already talk in some quarters of David Cameron inviting Frank Field to provide assistance, perhaps even a front bench appointment, to what some believe will be the next Tory government in 2010.
‘Because of the way that Tory Bliar and Gordon Brown have treated Frank Field, there is already talk in some quarters of David Cameron inviting Frank Field to provide assistance, perhaps even a front bench appointment, to what some believe will be the next Tory government in 2010.’
That wouldn’t surprise me at all
His reputation suggests otherwise but Frank Field is very right-wing for a Labour MP
He’s as anti the EU as most Tory MPs (which says a lot given that most of today’s Tory MPs despise the EU in the way they used to despised Communist Russia), he’s dead against PR (a good call but again unlike many of his colleagues) and he thought the unthinkable about welfare – and got sacked as a result
He’s also a member of the advisory board of the far right free-market think-tank Reform and of the new conservative magazine, Standpoint
Even more amazingly, according to Wikipedia in May 2008 he described Margaret Thatcher as a “a hero” !!!!
However, despite his strong personal following here, if he did cross the floor he’d be ejected come polling day.
This seat is as Labour as they come
I suspect the Conservatives would be unwise to try to recruit Frank Field, particularly for a ministerial post, if they do take office.
After a few months he’ll surely resign in a scene, then fall down the stairs, smashing all the furniture.
I think Frank could make this Labour’s safest seat as a % of the vote. His independent streak seems very popular.
With near eleven weeks to go, its time to call this seat. No surprise, I’m calling it for Frank Field. I’m also calling the Tories to retake second place.
The Labour Party will concentrate its efforts in buildling up its efforts in Prenton and if the General Election and Local election are on the same day, the Labour Party will fancy their chances in Prenton Ward. When it was in Wirral West, the Prenton Dell Council estate went LD in Local elections and Labour in General Elections mainly thaks to differential turnout.
It also means that Birknhead Labour Party will be offering little if any mutual aid to either Wirral South, Wallasey, Chester or Wirral West
Now assuming an A1 sheet of paper’s weight is 100 grams and from that there will be 32 Ballot papers per A1 page, it looks like
Labour (i.e. Frank Field) 6.25 Kilograms
Conservative 2.50 Kilograms
Lib Dem 2.25 Kilograms
I’d say Frank Field will poll 55-60% of the vote here, although he may well hold his two thirds share given his stance on immigration. LD 15-20%, Tory 15%, UKIP 5%.
I think Frank Field will certainly hold on and poll in excess of 60%.
I would expect, of the adjacent seats, Wirral South and Wallasey to stop Labour and Wirral West and Chester to go Tory and Labour would be wise to push resources into the ones they can hold as opposed to the ones that are as good as gone.
Lab Hold= 11,000 maj
Labour: 61%
Liberal Democrat: 22%
Conservative: 13%
UKIP: 4%
With Wallasey being the only other Wirral seat to stay Labour, with a majority similar to 2005. Wirral South is as good as gone (especially after Chapman was forced to resign) and Wirral West is definitely gone. Ellesmere Port & Neston might *just* stay Labour but it’s unlikely../
Lab hold maj 9000
Labour is potentially under pressure in Wirral South, Wallasey, Ellesmere Port and Neston and City of Chester. I believe that Labour will hold on to Wallasey and Ellesmere Port and Neston with a decent campaign. The big battle for Labour is likely to be Wirral South – maybe they should focus most of their resources here. Although, now that they have lots of cash from Tsar/Baron/Lord Sugar, maybe they can afford to run a huge campaign everywhere!!!!
Lab Hold 11 300
Lab maj 12,000
Anthony – the UKIP candidate is not standing according to Wirral council’s website:
http://www.wirral.gov.uk/News/news_0001343.html
Birkenhead is the only constituency in the country with 3 candidates
Birkenhead Constituency
Frank Field The Labour Party Candidate
Andrew Norman Gilbert The Conservative Party Candidate
Stuart Edward Kelly Liberal Democrats
That is interesting if you are into political trivia (as I sadly am!) cheers.
Field hold (does he actually count as Labour really given his views on most things?!) by 12,000 minimum.
He doesn’t actually rebel all that often despite his stances on some issues. he’d be just as much of a maverick in any party!
and indeed, he was once in the Young Conservatives. Clearly though he got over this youthful folly
since he was a Labour candidate in the 1966 general election, aged still only 24.
Yes, UKIP & BNP not standing here due to Field’s ‘defence of UK borders’ (Echo letter online).
Most embarrassing all told – can’t quite work out why he doesn’t leave the Labour party to become an independent, given that he shares so little with any wing of the Labour party
I suppose he’s Christian Right in the same way David now Lord Alton was as a Merseyside MP, although he is now an Ind over abortion. In fact, with Ellman, Kennedy and Berger being pro-Israel the Labour MPs on Merseyside are v different from the Heffer, Loyden, Parry, Wareing era. I’m not including Shaun Woodward!
Total candidates in this election = 4,149, beating the previous record of 3,724 in 1997.
Average number of candidates = 6.38, compared to 5.65 in 1997.
LAB HOLD
In working out my predicted majorities in each seat I created a spreadsheet which had actual numbers of votes for each party, in order that I could total them up to get regional and national shares. The figures I had for Birkenhead were Lab 18427 LD 8463 Con 6687. I was out by nearly 2000 on the LD vote and by 3,500 on Labour but the Conservative figure was spot on. Even with 650 different seats the odds on that happening must be fairly small. IN general the seats in this region represented my worst predictions because while I projected a smaller Labour to Conservative swing than in more southerly regions I didnt make it small enough by a long way
Most embarrassing all told – can’t quite work out why he doesn’t leave the Labour party to become an independent, given that he shares so little with any wing of the Labour party
Birkenhead CLP seems to like that sort of thing. In the preface to Edmund Dell’s able but bitter posthumous history of democratic socialism (or, more accurately, his history of the higher echelons of Labour post-1931), Dell says he had ceased to be socialist by the time he entered Parliament in 1964. Reading the book, one wonders how he managed to stick being in the party until the SDP split.
Perhaps for people like Dell and Field, the Labour Party has become like the old 18th Century party labels-more a statement of your family background and traditional loyalties rather than actual support for the party per se.
In those days, it was common for people to call themselves Whigs or Tories and then vote with the other side 99% of the time. They weren’t a Whig because they supported the party, but because that was the label their family were from. And the same is now true of Field.
And, to be fair, the Labour voters of Birkenhead seem to like Frank Field’s willingness to speak his mind.
His share of the vote only fell 1.6% in 2010, an extremely good performance.
“And, to be fair, the Labour voters of Birkenhead seem to like Frank Field’s willingness to speak his mind.
His share of the vote only fell 1.6% in 2010, an extremely good performance.”
Helped of course by this being the only seat where no minor parties or independents stood, which in many similar seats took 10-15% from the Labour total.
more a statement of your family background and traditional loyalties rather than actual support for the party per se.
I’m not sure this applies to all parties in the C18 – to the Rockingham and Foxite Whigs, it does – but I certainly agree with you as far as the C20 is concerned. Class identity was much stronger than ideology was in building a coalition of both parties. That’s posibly why talented working-class people who rose through the unions or the Labour movement, like Richard Marsh, Alf Robens or Frank Chapple, moved to the right in later years. They were tied to Labour and the unions by class and the possibility of self-advancement, not ideology. On the other side, you had Conservatives who were liberal, even progressive, but who felt themselves unable to join Labour because the party only welcomed upper and middle class converts who were firm socialist converts.
In 1983, the BBC election coverage flashed this one up as a Liberal Gain???
I’ve had a go at trying to work out what will happen to this seat through the boundary review if anyone is interested:
http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2011/04/labour-lose-seat-on-the-wirral/
Looks like the Green Party might well be on their way to getting their first Wirral council seat today, amazingly from the Birkenhead and Tranmere ward. Their candidate – Pat Cleary – stood here in 2010 and got 25% of the vote and is a very popular figure around these parts. That would certainly be a blow to Labour who have held this constituency, this ward and it’s predecessors of Birkenhead and Tranmere (two separate wards) since the dawn of time.