Birkenhead
2010 Results:
Conservative: 6687 (18.93%)
Labour: 22082 (62.51%)
Liberal Democrat: 6554 (18.55%)
Majority: 15395 (43.58%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20093 (64.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5933 (18.9%)
Conservative: 5256 (16.8%)
Other: 58 (0.2%)
Majority: 14160 (45.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 4602 (16.6%)
Labour: 18059 (65%)
Liberal Democrat: 5125 (18.4%)
Majority: 12934 (46.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 4827 (16.7%)
Labour: 20418 (70.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3722 (12.8%)
Majority: 15591 (53.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5982 (15.2%)
Labour: 27825 (70.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3548 (9%)
Referendum: 800 (2%)
Other: 1168 (3%)
Majority: 21843 (55.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Frank Field(Labour) Born 1942, London. Educated at St Clement Danes Boys Grammar School and Hull University. Prior to his election worker as a teacher and Director of the Low Pay Unit. Hounslow councillor 1964-1968. Contested South Buckinghamshire 1966. MP for Birkenhead since 1979. DHSS spokesman 1983-1984 before becoming Chair of the social services/security select committees for much of the 1980s and 1990s. Following the 1997 election he was made Minister of State for social security, with a brief to “think the unthinkable”. He resigned from the government the following year, reportedly having been refused a promotion to Secretary of State. He has subsequently been a consistent internal critic of the Labour government, leading the rebellion over the 10p tax rate and criticising Gordon Brown`s leadership. He is seen as something of a semi-detached member of the Labour party – he was a young Conservative in his youth, serves on the board of a free-market think tank (Reform), has praised Margaret Thatcher and is occassionally touted as a potential defection to the Conservative party. In 2009 he dropped out of the race to be speaker because of a lack of support from his own side of the House (more information at They work for you)
Andrew Gilbert (Conservative) Solicitor and lecturer. Huntingdonshire district councillor since 2006.Frank Field(Labour) Born 1942, London. Educated at St Clement Danes Boys Grammar School and Hull University. Prior to his election worker as a teacher and Director of the Low Pay Unit. Hounslow councillor 1964-1968. Contested South Buckinghamshire 1966. MP for Birkenhead since 1979. DHSS spokesman 1983-1984 before becoming Chair of the social services/security select committees for much of the 1980s and 1990s. Following the 1997 election he was made Minister of State for social security, with a brief to “think the unthinkable”. He resigned from the government the following year, reportedly having been refused a promotion to Secretary of State. He has subsequently been a consistent internal critic of the Labour government, leading the rebellion over the 10p tax rate and criticising Gordon Brown`s leadership. He is seen as something of a semi-detached member of the Labour party – he was a young Conservative in his youth, serves on the board of a free-market think tank (Reform), has praised Margaret Thatcher and is occassionally touted as a potential defection to the Conservative party. In 2009 he dropped out of the race to be speaker because of a lack of support from his own side of the House (more information at They work for you)
Stuart Kelly (Liberal Democrat) Electrician. Wirral councillor. Contested Ellesmere Port and Neston 2001, Birkenhead 2005.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84124
Male: 47%
Female: 53%
Under 18: 25.3%
Over 60: 20.4%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 97.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 79.2%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 14%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.5%
Owner-Occupied: 59.8%
Social Housing: 26.3% (Council: 16.5%, Housing Ass.: 9.8%)
Privately Rented: 11.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.4%
Why do you think that it’s too early Andy?
Field could have defected before then
Birkenhead 2015 If Field retires most likely
Lab 65.2 (+3)
Con 17.6 (-1.8)
LD 10.5 (-8)
UKIP 4.1
Others 2.6
Turnout 57%
I can’t see Labour exceeding their 1997 share here as I’m ‘only’ expecting the labour vote to increase 7.5 points nationally on 2010.
Wouldnt there be some tories here who vote Field who wouldnt vote for his replacement.
It’s too early IMO because anything could happen in the next two and a half years.
Imagine someone trying to predict the next general election in December 1980 just before the SDP was formed.
If UKIP are to decline to stand in any Labour-held seats, this would be one of the most likely; Frank Field is a high-church, anti-German Eurosceptic.
How would you feel about voting for him in a parliamentary election and the fact he represents the party you support?
I would have no difficulty in voting for Mr Field should my life change dramatically & cause me to move to Birkenhead. I myself am most decidedly not a fan of the EU though I certainly don’t share Field’s churchiness & rather right-wing views on certain issues for a Labour MP. It’s perhaps rather surprising that he backed Ed rather than David Miliband for the leadership. I have never voted against any Labour candidate in an election though I did abstain in the Euro-elections (including a subsequent by-election) in 1979. Even Field is preferable, from my point of view, to his predecessor Edmund Dell who joined the SDP after retiring in 1979, and I wouldn’t have greatly enjoyed having Frank Soskice as an MP either (he represented Birkenhead East from 1945 until the Birkenhead seats were merged in 1950, and had to wait a number of years before re-entering parliament for Newport in 1956).
Interesting, are there are any Labour candidates past or present you wouldn’t vote for on ideological grounds?
There are plenty of tories I wouldn’t touch with a bargepole that pretty much exclusively come from the rather extreme social right of the party (cough Peter Bone) Id vote UKIP then given appropriate social views or if not (with some pain) for an orange booker. Following that some local loon and following that spoilt ballot.
Most people who are politically active and engaged will have people they won’t vote for, even if they are nominally part of the “right” party. These antipathies are not always obvious to outsiders.
As a Labour party member at the time I could not bring myself to vote for Harry Cohen in Leyton in 1997, and considered myself fully justified when he was proven to be one of the worst offenders in the expenses scandal.
And no I wouldn’t vote for Frank Field in any circumstances. Nor Gerald Kauffman.
I am on the hard left of the Labour Party but honestly don’t think there are any Labour MPs I wouldn’t vote for under any circumstances – I am extremely loyal to the Labour Party & its candidates. I was however glad when I didn’t have to vote for Keith Vaz in Richmond in 1983 – I had a vote in Brighton Pavilion in that election.
I wasn’t quite right about Sir Frank Soskice – he was MP for the shortlived Sheffield Neepsend constituency from 1950 to 1955. I don’t even know what part of Sheffield that was in.
Neepsend was inner north-west Sheffield. It was a small and very shortlived constituency. Neepsend was an odd choice for naming the constituency, as it’s never been a major suburb. It’s now a mostly industrial area with a couple of excellent pubs.