Birkenhead
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20093 (64.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5933 (18.9%)
Conservative: 5256 (16.8%)
Other: 58 (0.2%)
Majority: 14160 (45.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 4602 (16.6%)
Labour: 18059 (65%)
Liberal Democrat: 5125 (18.4%)
Majority: 12934 (46.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 4827 (16.7%)
Labour: 20418 (70.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3722 (12.8%)
Majority: 15591 (53.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5982 (15.2%)
Labour: 27825 (70.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3548 (9%)
Referendum: 800 (2%)
Other: 1168 (3%)
Majority: 21843 (55.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Frank Field(Labour) Born 1942, London. Educated at St Clement Danes Boys Grammar School and Hull University. Prior to his election worker as a teacher and Director of the Low Pay Unit. Hounslow councillor 1964-1968. Contested South Buckinghamshire 1966. MP for Birkenhead since 1979. DHSS spokesman 1983-1984 before becoming Chair of the social services/security select committees for much of the 1980s and 1990s. Following the 1997 election he was made Minister of State for social security, with a brief to “think the unthinkable”. He resigned from the government the following year, reportedly having been refused a promotion to Secretary of State. He has subsequently been a consistent internal critic of the Labour government, leading the rebellion over the 10p tax rate and criticising Gordon Brown’s leadership. He is seen as something of a semi-detached member of the Labour party – he was a young Conservative in his youth, serves on the board of a free-market think tank (Reform), has praised Margaret Thatcher and is occassionally touted as a potential defection to the Conservative party. In 2009 he dropped out of the race to be speaker because of a lack of support from his own side of the House (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Andrew Gilbert (Conservative) Solicitor and lecturer. Huntingdonshire district councillor since 2006.
Stuart Kelly (Liberal Democrat) Electrician. Wirral councillor. Contested Ellesmere Port and Neston 2001, Birkenhead 2005.
John Moore (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84124
Male: 47%
Female: 53%
Under 18: 25.3%
Over 60: 20.4%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 97.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 79.2%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 14%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.5%
Owner-Occupied: 59.8%
Social Housing: 26.3% (Council: 16.5%, Housing Ass.: 9.8%)
Privately Rented: 11.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.4%
I not inclined to take that ICM poll as gospel.
I’m still predicting a 16% swing to the Conservatives there at the moment. The changes in share of the vote in Crewe and Nantwich in 2005 were remarkably in line with the national trend, and I see no compelling reason why that should change – especially as it is now has the makings of a classical Tory/Labour marginal. YouGov are currently showing the second largest Tory lead in polling history (26%). After their prediction of the London mayoral election, I trust them.
Henley is more difficult to predict though. I’m sure it will a Conservative hold, but unlike C & N the LibDems are in second place there and the result will be more dependant on the strength of the campaigning there.
The adjustment because of the boundary change here is very kind to the Lib Dems in that it boosts their result by assuming that in Prenton Ward voting is consistent in different elections. The evidence of Prenton when it was in Wirral West was that the St.Stephens box was one of the Tories best while Prenton Dell would vote Liberal locally and Labour nationally and at the same time in national elections the Tories would be 2nd.Indeed on the old Prenton Ward while it was in Wirral West from 1974 through to 2003, Labour only won it twice (1981 & 1988). At Wirral Councillevel from 1974 through to 1984 it was Tory and then in 1986 and 1990 it went Lib Dem, Tory in 1991 and 1992 and Lib Dem since. It is somewhat complicated by the fact that one Lib Dem Member crossed over to Labour in the early 1990s
The fight here is to be 2nd.
The Lib Dems have selected Wirral councillor Stuart Kelly here.
I am a Birkenhead lad originally
Question here – just an academic exercise – is what would happen here if Frank was not carrying on. Birkenhead is a mix of areas of need and some really nice parts such as Oxton and Claughton.
Labour to hold on – possibly not I think.
Any thoughts here?
Richard, I really cannot see anything other than a safe Labour seat here. The only time it may not be so would be if Frank Field stood as a non-Labour candidate against a new Labour candidate. Then it would be very interesting….
A Labour loss here other than the kind Matt envisages would surely mean the death of the Labour Party.
Also, neither the Conservatives or Lib Dems have much strength in this seat, other than in Claughton and Oxton respectively. This was a safe seat even in 1983, and as Votedave says, if Labour lose here, they are in serious trouble as a party.
Claughton is still a Labour ward and I doubt whether Oxton stays LibDem nationally : its a ‘nice’ area but its not Conservative, unlike many areas of the Wirral, its more Guardian-reader territory
The Conservatives have selected David Gilbert here. He is a Huntingdon councillor and (yet another) lawyer!
Matt – I’m glad my selection appeared on your radar but I need to correct you on a couple of things. First, my name is Andrew, not David. Second, although it is not inaccurate to call me a ‘lawyer’ that is not how I describe myself. I am a university lecturer and have been so for longer than I was in practice. As someone who works in the university sector I am therefore a rare breed as a Conservative candidate.
As to my ‘local’ credentials, my parents and much of my extended family live in the constituency. My family have lived there for at least 100 years and a number worked for Cammell Laird in its heyday. I believe that makes me more local than Frank Field when he first stood in Birkenhead!
It would be great to hear from you if you would be willing to help out in our campaign. Please feel free to email the association office at conservatives@tiscali.co.uk.
Thanks for all the input on my original comment.
Just a thought on if Frank was not there continues. All the bits of Rock Ferry and Tranmere areas seem to have been levelled – taking with it all my memories and stomping ground. More importantly it possibly has taken the core Labour voters.
Although I agree that it is still a Labout seat I do feel that the next Labour candidate will have a bad time ahead.
Merseyside can do surprises. My late Dad was a Mersey Pilot and there was a Pilot I believe called Malcolm Thornton who gained a seat and then lost it even though he had a 5 figure majority.
Birkenhead is changing rapidly and may well be a not so safe Labour place now. Who would have though Wallasey would change?
Because of the way that Tory Bliar and Gordon Brown have treated Frank Field, there is already talk in some quarters of David Cameron inviting Frank Field to provide assistance, perhaps even a front bench appointment, to what some believe will be the next Tory government in 2010.
‘Because of the way that Tory Bliar and Gordon Brown have treated Frank Field, there is already talk in some quarters of David Cameron inviting Frank Field to provide assistance, perhaps even a front bench appointment, to what some believe will be the next Tory government in 2010.’
That wouldn’t surprise me at all
His reputation suggests otherwise but Frank Field is very right-wing for a Labour MP
He’s as anti the EU as most Tory MPs (which says a lot given that most of today’s Tory MPs despise the EU in the way they used to despised Communist Russia), he’s dead against PR (a good call but again unlike many of his colleagues) and he thought the unthinkable about welfare – and got sacked as a result
He’s also a member of the advisory board of the far right free-market think-tank Reform and of the new conservative magazine, Standpoint
Even more amazingly, according to Wikipedia in May 2008 he described Margaret Thatcher as a “a hero” !!!!
However, despite his strong personal following here, if he did cross the floor he’d be ejected come polling day.
This seat is as Labour as they come
I suspect the Conservatives would be unwise to try to recruit Frank Field, particularly for a ministerial post, if they do take office.
After a few months he’ll surely resign in a scene, then fall down the stairs, smashing all the furniture.
I think Frank could make this Labour’s safest seat as a % of the vote. His independent streak seems very popular.