Birkenhead
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20093 (64.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5933 (18.9%)
Conservative: 5256 (16.8%)
Other: 58 (0.2%)
Majority: 14160 (45.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 4602 (16.6%)
Labour: 18059 (65%)
Liberal Democrat: 5125 (18.4%)
Majority: 12934 (46.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 4827 (16.7%)
Labour: 20418 (70.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3722 (12.8%)
Majority: 15591 (53.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5982 (15.2%)
Labour: 27825 (70.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3548 (9%)
Referendum: 800 (2%)
Other: 1168 (3%)
Majority: 21843 (55.5%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Frank Field (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
John Moore (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84124
Male: 47%
Female: 53%
Under 18: 25.3%
Over 60: 20.4%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 97.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 79.2%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 14%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.5%
Owner-Occupied: 59.8%
Social Housing: 26.3% (Council: 16.5%, Housing Ass.: 9.8%)
Privately Rented: 11.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.4%
47 Responses
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Bradford South
I not inclined to take that ICM poll as gospel.
May 12th, 2008 at 4:46 pmI’m still predicting a 16% swing to the Conservatives there at the moment. The changes in share of the vote in Crewe and Nantwich in 2005 were remarkably in line with the national trend, and I see no compelling reason why that should change - especially as it is now has the makings of a classical Tory/Labour marginal. YouGov are currently showing the second largest Tory lead in polling history (26%). After their prediction of the London mayoral election, I trust them.
Henley is more difficult to predict though. I’m sure it will a Conservative hold, but unlike C & N the LibDems are in second place there and the result will be more dependant on the strength of the campaigning there.
The adjustment because of the boundary change here is very kind to the Lib Dems in that it boosts their result by assuming that in Prenton Ward voting is consistent in different elections. The evidence of Prenton when it was in Wirral West was that the St.Stephens box was one of the Tories best while Prenton Dell would vote Liberal locally and Labour nationally and at the same time in national elections the Tories would be 2nd.Indeed on the old Prenton Ward while it was in Wirral West from 1974 through to 2003, Labour only won it twice (1981 & 1988). At Wirral Councillevel from 1974 through to 1984 it was Tory and then in 1986 and 1990 it went Lib Dem, Tory in 1991 and 1992 and Lib Dem since. It is somewhat complicated by the fact that one Lib Dem Member crossed over to Labour in the early 1990s
The fight here is to be 2nd.
June 10th, 2008 at 3:33 pmPages: « 1 2 3 [4] Show All