Birkenhead
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20093 (64.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5933 (18.9%)
Conservative: 5256 (16.8%)
Other: 58 (0.2%)
Majority: 14160 (45.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 4602 (16.6%)
Labour: 18059 (65%)
Liberal Democrat: 5125 (18.4%)
Majority: 12934 (46.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 4827 (16.7%)
Labour: 20418 (70.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3722 (12.8%)
Majority: 15591 (53.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5982 (15.2%)
Labour: 27825 (70.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3548 (9%)
Referendum: 800 (2%)
Other: 1168 (3%)
Majority: 21843 (55.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Frank Field(Labour) Born 1942, London. Educated at St Clement Danes Boys Grammar School and Hull University. Prior to his election worker as a teacher and Director of the Low Pay Unit. Hounslow councillor 1964-1968. Contested South Buckinghamshire 1966. MP for Birkenhead since 1979. DHSS spokesman 1983-1984 before becoming Chair of the social services/security select committees for much of the 1980s and 1990s. Following the 1997 election he was made Minister of State for social security, with a brief to “think the unthinkable”. He resigned from the government the following year, reportedly having been refused a promotion to Secretary of State. He has subsequently been a consistent internal critic of the Labour government, leading the rebellion over the 10p tax rate and criticising Gordon Brown`s leadership. He is seen as something of a semi-detached member of the Labour party – he was a young Conservative in his youth, serves on the board of a free-market think tank (Reform), has praised Margaret Thatcher and is occassionally touted as a potential defection to the Conservative party. In 2009 he dropped out of the race to be speaker because of a lack of support from his own side of the House (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Andrew Gilbert (Conservative) Solicitor and lecturer. Huntingdonshire district councillor since 2006.
Frank Field(Labour) Born 1942, London. Educated at St Clement Danes Boys Grammar School and Hull University. Prior to his election worker as a teacher and Director of the Low Pay Unit. Hounslow councillor 1964-1968. Contested South Buckinghamshire 1966. MP for Birkenhead since 1979. DHSS spokesman 1983-1984 before becoming Chair of the social services/security select committees for much of the 1980s and 1990s. Following the 1997 election he was made Minister of State for social security, with a brief to “think the unthinkable”. He resigned from the government the following year, reportedly having been refused a promotion to Secretary of State. He has subsequently been a consistent internal critic of the Labour government, leading the rebellion over the 10p tax rate and criticising Gordon Brown`s leadership. He is seen as something of a semi-detached member of the Labour party – he was a young Conservative in his youth, serves on the board of a free-market think tank (Reform), has praised Margaret Thatcher and is occassionally touted as a potential defection to the Conservative party. In 2009 he dropped out of the race to be speaker because of a lack of support from his own side of the House (more information at They work for you)
Stuart Kelly (Liberal Democrat) Electrician. Wirral councillor. Contested Ellesmere Port and Neston 2001, Birkenhead 2005.
John Moore (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84124
Male: 47%
Female: 53%
Under 18: 25.3%
Over 60: 20.4%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 97.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 79.2%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 14%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.5%
Owner-Occupied: 59.8%
Social Housing: 26.3% (Council: 16.5%, Housing Ass.: 9.8%)
Privately Rented: 11.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.4%



With near eleven weeks to go, its time to call this seat. No surprise, I’m calling it for Frank Field. I’m also calling the Tories to retake second place.
The Labour Party will concentrate its efforts in buildling up its efforts in Prenton and if the General Election and Local election are on the same day, the Labour Party will fancy their chances in Prenton Ward. When it was in Wirral West, the Prenton Dell Council estate went LD in Local elections and Labour in General Elections mainly thaks to differential turnout.
It also means that Birknhead Labour Party will be offering little if any mutual aid to either Wirral South, Wallasey, Chester or Wirral West
Now assuming an A1 sheet of paper’s weight is 100 grams and from that there will be 32 Ballot papers per A1 page, it looks like
Labour (i.e. Frank Field) 6.25 Kilograms
Conservative 2.50 Kilograms
Lib Dem 2.25 Kilograms
I’d say Frank Field will poll 55-60% of the vote here, although he may well hold his two thirds share given his stance on immigration. LD 15-20%, Tory 15%, UKIP 5%.
I think Frank Field will certainly hold on and poll in excess of 60%.
I would expect, of the adjacent seats, Wirral South and Wallasey to stop Labour and Wirral West and Chester to go Tory and Labour would be wise to push resources into the ones they can hold as opposed to the ones that are as good as gone.