Beverley and Holderness
2010 Results:
Conservative: 25063 (47.11%)
Labour: 11224 (21.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 12076 (22.7%)
BNP: 2080 (3.91%)
UKIP: 1845 (3.47%)
Green: 686 (1.29%)
Independent: 225 (0.42%)
Majority: 12987 (24.41%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 20335 (40.6%)
Labour: 17727 (35.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 9711 (19.4%)
Other: 2322 (4.6%)
Majority: 2609 (5.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 20434 (40.7%)
Labour: 17854 (35.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 9578 (19.1%)
UKIP: 2336 (4.7%)
Majority: 2580 (5.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 19168 (41.3%)
Labour: 18387 (39.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 7356 (15.9%)
UKIP: 1464 (3.2%)
Majority: 781 (1.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21629 (40.9%)
Labour: 20818 (39.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9689 (18.3%)
Other: 806 (1.5%)
Majority: 811 (1.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: The eastern part of the East Riding of Yorkshire, covering the rural hinterland of Hull, the traditional market town of Beverley to the north and then out to the east Yorkshire coast and the rural villages and farmland of Holderness. Outside Beverley itself this is mostly agricultural, particularly pig farming, though there is also some industrial development inclding gas terminals on the North sea coast and the Salt End chemical works and power plant on the Humber estuary, close to the boundary with Hull.
The seat and its predecessor Beverley were both consistently Conservative seats, but by 2001 it had become one of their most narrowly held seats. As the outgoing MP James Cran neared retirement he was pilloried by opponents as being inactive and nicknamed “the invisible Cran” – there was a possibility for a surprise Labour gain here, but in the end it was retained by the new Conservative candidate, Graham Stuart.
Current MP: Graham Stuart(Conservative) born 1962, Carlisle. Educated at Gelnalmond College and Cambridge University. Founded and now chairs and publishing business. Cambridge councillor 1998-2004. Contested Cambridge 2001. MP for Beverley & Holderness 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Graham Stuart(Conservative) born 1962, Carlisle. Educated at Gelnalmond College and Cambridge University. Founded and now chairs and publishing business. Cambridge councillor 1998-2004. Contested Cambridge 2001. MP for Beverley & Holderness 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Ian Saunders (Labour) Sheffield councillor.
Craig Dobson (Liberal Democrat)Bill Rigby (Green)Andy Horsfield (UKIP)Ron Hughes (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95260
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 21.7%
Over 60: 23%
Born outside UK: 2.7%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.9%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 19.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.1%
Owner-Occupied: 78.6%
Social Housing: 11.1% (Council: 8.9%, Housing Ass.: 2.1%)
Privately Rented: 6.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.7%
It is interesting that Votedave stayed in Withernsea as I see that his home constituency is Bradford.
I grew up in Hornsea (in North Holderness). Hornsea is more upmarket than Withernsea and has better attractions (at the time it had the Hornsea Pottery which is now a retail park, it has Hornsea Mere and some large indoor markets, nicer beaches). However, it was always seen as the favoured destination for ‘Wessies’ – that is the local slang for people from West Yorkshire. On the other hand, Withernsea was seen as a place that people from Hull went on holiday. To many people, despite being 15miles away from Hull, Withernsea is Hull-by-the-sea.
I always assumed that this had something to do with the social demographics in the area. As people migrated and retired to the coast, the people of West Yorkshire are more Tory inclined than the people from Hull who continue to move into Withernsea and surrounding area.
As for Spurn Point – if you aren’t into bird watching, I wouldn’t bother!
“Wessy” is indeed the vernacular for West Yorkshiremen in this part of the world. Similarly, a friend from Cleethorpes informed me that South Yorkshire folk are known in Northern Lincolnshire as “comforts” as they “come for t’day”
Why does a lazy Sheffield Councillor think he can win here?
Well if the UKIP loses votes, then this should benefit the Conservatives.Given the state of the polls maybe they can get 50% of the vote.Or am I being too optimistic?
I’d be interested to see the General Election result here when it comes.
Only two years ago, it was possible to envisage a long term trend to Labour and another very close result.
I wonder what the underlying position would now be.
2010
Most likely
*Con 24,704 46.9% +6.3%
Lab 16,804 31.9% -3.5%
LD 8,270 15.7% -3.7%
UKIP 2,897 5.5%
Total votes 52,675
C majority 7,900 15.0% (+9.8%)
Swing 4.9% from Lab to C
C hold
Not particularly large changes in that prediction.
I think there is a long term swing to Labour in this seat which will be disguised at the next election.
If a Tory government starts losing support, this could be competitive again.
JJB – not sure whether that’s the case any more (shift to labour). It was true while the coastal towns declined and especially Withernsea. But these communities are declining in population terms relative to the increasingly prosperous fringes of Hull.
The bedrock of labour support lies in those retirees from West Yorkshire who moved into the relatively cheaper property here. This population is not being replaced as the housing is (quite literally) disappearing!
Interesting comment from ASC last summer, which nobody has taken up, perhaps because we stopped thinking about this as a marginal seat after Brown failed to take the plunge in 2007.
Nevertheless, it would be interesting to get to the bottom of what the long-term trends are here.
He seems to think there are two trends,
Dr Craig Dobson is the new Lib Dem candidate here
Cons Hold= 7,000 maj
C hold maj 10000
Con Hold
Maj 5600
BNP have selected Neil Whitelam
Con maj 10,000
There seems to be some confusion as to what the Tory majority was in 2001.
Was it 1,211 or 811?
Wikipedia says the former, this site says the latter, and I know a lot of other publications or sources are similarly at odds over this pressing question.
CON HOLD. I don’t think the majority will be as large as Pete suggests.
Very high swing here, still below the 1992 notional result though.
This result will be a severe disappointment for Labour, which has overperformed in the seat since 1997. The Tories can sleep soundly here now.
Probably, but I’m slightly concerned that the Liberal Democrats have taken second place.
Not the sort of seat they’d do seriously well in though,
and maybe Labour may challenge again at some point in the future.
Did the LibDems come second here in 1992? I’m sure they would have done in the 1980s.
Nope…SNP did.
Galloway was an SNP seat from 74 – 79 but Galloway & Upper Nithsdale would have been still Tory during that period.
SDP came 2nd in Dumfries in 1983 but were pushed back into 3rd place by Labour in 1987.
Sorry, thought this was Dumfries & Galloway.
Beverley is made up of 7 wards, 4 of which are Holderness.
Holderness South is a traditional Labour rural ward and Labour are also strong in Beverley Minster (the poorer East side of the County Town).
The notional result in 1992 was~:
Con 54.5%
LD 25.3%
Lab 20.1%
and a Conservative majority of 15,957
So the Conservative share is down more or less in line with the national decline in their vote since 1992 with the difference mainly being made up by parties to their right, but Labour are somewhat stronger relative to their national position than they were in 1992.
Which seats included the town of Beverley itself before 1983? I believe an eponymous seat with slightly different boundaries existed briefly some time before 1983
Which seats included the town of Beverley itself before 1983? I believe an eponymous seat with slightly different boundaries existed briefly some time before that
It was in a seat called Holderness with boundaries very similar to this seat from 1885 to 1950. There was then as you say a Beverley seat in existence from 1950 to 1955 and from then until 1983 it was in Haltemprice.
Thank you
I remember Grahm Stuart being featured on the politics show just after the expenses scandal was unfolding. To be fair he was in Beverley handing out flyers outside his stall. I remember thinking then, fair enough mate, it cant be easy. He seems a decent bloke
The Hull Daily Mail has suggested that -
The City of Hull and East Yorkshire which share 7 MP’s could be reduced to 6.
Assume that they would revert to the pre-1997 constituencies of -
Hull East, Hull North, Hull West, Boothferry, Bridlington and Beveley with the exception that Hull has depopulated and East Yorkshire has grown.
Beverley & Holderness
Boothferry (or Brigg, Goole & Howden)
Bridlington
Haltenprice & Hull North
Hull East
Hull West
Bridlington should be Bridlington & North Wolds
Brigg is across the Humber in North Lincolnshire, so I assume that would merge with Scunny and the “Lincolnshire” seats (including the unitaries of North and North East Lincs). I’d suggest Goole & Howden and Bridlington & Driffield as seat names
Beverley has only ever had a single non-Conservative MP – one William Bowder, who was the Liberal MP in the early 1920s
Beverley didn’t exist between 1870 and 1950. Which constituency are you referring to?
Buckrose had a Tory majority of 214 in 1923 and one of 3,004 in 1924.
Holderness had a Tory majority of 253 in 1923 and one of 2,749 in 1924.
Howdenshire was Tory unopposed in 1923 and 1924.
Beverley was part of the Holderness constituency at that time. Harry will be referring to the 1922 election.
‘Beverley didn’t exist between 1870 and 1950. Which constituency are you referring to?’
I was not referring to any constituency, but to the actual town of Beverley itself
I think the Con vote is still about 7 – 7.5 % below 1992 here.
Looks like Labour has recovered a fair bit in some seats here – for example Minster, the centre of Beverley itself,
and not too bad in some Holderness wards.
I’ve not percentaged it yet,
but scanning it against 2007, there’s been a change.
The Tories did well at the same time though.
Would Labour be inclined to recover much here?
Excellent results for them in 1997-2005
A very poor one in 2010.
There seems to be a case for thinking this is the kind of territory moving against them
but not if the political situation changes heavily.
Bearing in mind this seat is extremely close to Hull I would imagine that a Labour recovery would certainly be on the cards in 2015 but I don’t think their vote will recover to 2005 levels.
On the face of it this should never have been a marginal in the first place & it’s rather remarkable that Labour came close not once but twice – in fact even in 2005 it was still marginal. In contrast, the party failed to win any district council seats within this seat’s boundaries in 1991 which was essentially an even year. The Labour near-misses seem to have been built on a very strong showing in the town of Beverley and a very high vote in the coastal towns with the Tories holding on with their firm vote in the villages in between. This support seems to have been conditional and temporary. There may have been some demographic influence from Hull, but if so, it hasn’t lasted. The 2010 result must have come as a great relief to the Tories and it will be very interesting to see if they encounter trouble from Labour again in the future. They certainly do appear to be safe for the foreseeable future even if Labour regains the sort of poll leads which were seen in 1997 & 2001 – indeed, current polls are mostly in 2001 territory if not quite 1997. No-one foresaw the 1997 result at all – the psephologists IIRC gave the seat a notional Tory majority of something like 19,000, and that was over the LDs not Labour. It may be that Graham Stuart is being a much more effective MP here than Jim Cran was but I doubt that that alone accounts for the violent swing to Labour in 1997 (greatly more so even than the national average) and back to the Tories in 2010 (ditto) – there must be other reasons too & it would be nice if someone with some local knowledge could hazard a guess at why.
Significant development must have been taking place in the Holderness constituency between 1924 and 1945:
Electorate:
1924: 28,449
1929: 38,147
1931: 42,734
1935: 57,466
1939 by-election: 67,967
1945: 77,475