Comments on: Berwick upon Tweed

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 12:52:25 +0000

It depends on the final boundaries I suppose, the Hexham MP wants Ponteland E to be kept in Hexham and Rothbury may well remain in this constituency, in which case Hexham should remain secure (but with Labour possibly moving back to 2nd) and a tad more difficult for the tories here (although still near the top of their hitlist).

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 14:26:26 +0000

Looks like they do have a chance.
There are quite a lot of Tory and Labour supporters in this seat, but it’s been suppressed much of the time.
It would be very strange indeed if Hexham and Berwick swapped round between LDs and Conservatives.
I suspect though, that in Hexham, Labour could increase splitting the opposition to the Tories,
but one should never assume in these rural seats.

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 08:06:11 +0000

A tory gain is more or less certain here next time, the LDs are already weakened with Rothbury going into Hexham.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 23 Oct 2011 23:40:56 +0000

Just had a short break in Lindisfarne, Holy Island.
There are several very nice pubs, restaurants and businesses on the island – there are quite a lot of visitors.

Saw NZ win.

As discussed, this island is included in Berwick upon Tweed.

It seems that Sir Alan Beith’s majority does get reduced in General Elections when
i) either there is a change of government
ii) a close contest between the other two parties nationally.
But he seems to re-establish the majority again later.

But of course, 1979 is a big exception to that – not only did the Liberal majority increase against the trend, the Conservative share actually fell.

If he retires next time, I’d have thought the Tories would stand a pretty good chance, if they are doing reasonably well next time. (Unless the LDs got back to a figure quite like last time, which seems unlikely).

Several people said that Berwick has been hit quite hard in the economic situation. Perhaps that made the last election result more related to the national contest.

By: Joe

Joe — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 13:08:36 +0000

If the seat enlarges south it well help Lab but would never be enough to win the seat. Westwards would play straight into the Tories hands.

In any direction a Tory gain looks likely, especially if Beith retires with a relatively low vote share but a split opposition.

By: Phillip

Phillip — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 18:58:08 +0000

The population in this seat is so small that any predictions about the result here next time need to be very cautious due to boundary changes. On the face of it, the Liberal presence in the seats in the rest of the county should give the Lib Dems some confidence. Blyth Valley – Lib Dems second on 27% but I’d suggest this exactly the sort of working class north-east seat where the Lid Dems will be hammered next time due to the coalition. Ditto for Wansbeck at 27% too. Hexham (29% -pretty consistent at least across the 3) may be more forgiving. Could be tight next time depending where the bondaries go an whether Beith retires.

By: A Brown

A Brown — Sun, 03 Oct 2010 22:13:08 +0000

‘Anne-Marie Trevelyan seems like quite a tough candidate, and still seems to be around.
Perhaps she can win it next time.’

Looks like it on the current boundaries. Beith has already lost the soft centre right support once centre left voters go back to Labour he’s stuffed.

What would the implications be if this constituency was enlarged to include Morpeth?

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 03 Oct 2010 22:08:24 +0000

Anne-Marie Trevelyan seems like quite a tough candidate, and still seems to be around.
Perhaps she can win it next time.

By: Robberbutton

Robberbutton — Sat, 14 Aug 2010 20:30:33 +0000

If you don’t like the numbers then just make them up

By: Mark Senior

Mark Senior — Sat, 14 Aug 2010 19:59:16 +0000

HH – Yougov have changed their methodology since the GE , the effect of the change is to reduce the LibDem % in their polls compared to what it would have been without the change .
Council byelections are not finding lots of switchers from LibDem to Labour , in some places but by no means all , they are finding Libdem previous voters now sitting on their hands .
I would agree with Benjamin that Barnaby’s anecdotal switchers are like most anecdotes not to be believed akin to the “loads of LibDem councillors are going to defect to Labour” which in reality has totalled fewer than the fingers on a one handed man .