Comments on: Berwick upon Tweed

By: Justin Hinchcliffe

Justin Hinchcliffe — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 22:31:48 +0000

Alan Strickland, the Labour candidate here, has just been selected as a Labour candidate for Noel Park in the London Borough of Haringey. In 2006, two Lib Dems and one Labour councillor were elected in this 3-member ward. One LD, Cllr. Catherine Harris, later defected to Labour and the sole Labour councillor Alan Dobbie has just defected to the Conservatives! In his new leaflet, Mr Strickland says he is “determined to give Noel Park a stronger voice”. Elections will be held here in May. Wonder how that will play in Berwick-Upon-Tweed (and vice-versa)?

By: Frederic Stansfield

Frederic Stansfield — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 11:42:47 +0000

Richard is right to remind us that the Liberals gained this seat after a scandal. If I recollect rightly the MP (and minister) who resigned was Lord Lambton, who of couurse came from a notable Northumberland family. And the Conservative candidate here comes from a different, and respectable, wellknown Northumberland family.

With respect to history, Richard is right to remind us of Montgomery, which seems to me to have similarities as a rural borders seat. As I recollect, the Liberals were so busy getting ready to celebrate holding Montgomery for 100 years that they lost it in a General Election after 99.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 19:30:05 +0000

I analysed quite a lot of the seats that were not changed in February 1974, and found that in the seats the Liberals stood in the 1960s (and even sometimes in the 50s), their vote was usually no better in 1979, and sometimes lower.

They did extremely well in February 1974.

If they fall to about 17% next time, then they are actually pretty close back to the 1945-79 era (74 apart).

But they will have more seats.

The Conservative share of the vote actually fell here by about 4% in 1979.

By: Richard

Richard — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 16:51:05 +0000

Gallowglass

I like to call it realism

In general though I expect the LibDems to do better than expected although that view took a knock after the LibDem disaster in the south-west this month.

I do actually have bets placed for LibDem MPs from 60 upwards.

By: Tim13

Tim13 — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 16:50:57 +0000

In 2001, quite a number of Lib Dem held seats, with strong incumbents, saw new candidates fighting. Although the personal vote was obvious in several, the new candidates were generally supported. Quite a lot of support transfers from the MP to the party. Without doubt, if the new MP is a let-down, he or she will lose out in the medium term, although no-one should doubt the terrific publicity advantage the incumbent party has in terms of potential for publicity etc. We’ll see – a few Lib Dem incumbents stand down in 2010 – will the “2001 effect” be as strong?

By: Galloglass

Galloglass — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 16:25:42 +0000

All i can say is that I admire your optimism Richand.

By: Richard

Richard — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 15:25:07 +0000

“Of course the Liberals went from 7% nationally in 1970 to 19% in Feb 1974 so theres a good chance Alan Beith would have beaten Lambton in this seat without the scandal.”

I very much doubt it as the Liberal majorities in the two 1974 elections were only 443 and 73. I’m sure the prominence Beith received from his byeelection win was worth at least 500 votes, he certainly wouldn’t have received many Labour tactical votes without it.

Beith has certainly done a good job in building a good majority but as in many LibDem seats much of that will depend on him rather than the party.

If this area had been the best area in the country for the LibDems as Gallowglass initially claimed then they would have done much better at local level as indeed they have done in parts of SW England.

I’m sure a few years the LibDems in neighbouring Roxbrugh & Berwickshire thought they were secure for ever and then their constituency was gained by the Conservatives in 2007 on a swing of over 9%.

By: Mackem

Mackem — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 14:55:54 +0000

I agree that the Lib Dems will find it tougher here when Beith retires, but if he fights the next election and holds on, then from then on the Tories are surely going to be looking at diminishing returns.

The other cause for the Libs to be optimistic is that they’ve won Berwick/Alnwick districts (2004) and Northumberland (2009) in European elections, when Beith wasn’t the candidate.

I actually would be disappointed for the whole of the north east if the Libs lost this, as I think it’s important we have even a token representation of MPs from each party the region. I would say the same about Hexham, where Peter Atkinson held on – just – in 97.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 13:42:31 +0000

The Liberals contested about 250 seats in 1970, and probably about 500 in February 1974, and I think all of them or almost all in October 1974.
Their vote per candidate was 24% in February 1974.
Their 1979 vote per candidate was on a par with the pre 1974 post war era.

By: Galloglass

Galloglass — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:12:25 +0000

Of course the Liberals went from 7% nationally in 1970 to 19% in Feb 1974 so theres a good chance Alan Beith would have beaten Lambton in this seat without the scandal.

What you’ve also overlooked Richard is of all the seats won by the Libs in that period, this is the one what has become and stayed solidly Liberal even in the very bad years of 1979 and 1992.