Berwick upon Tweed
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14116 (36.72%)
Labour: 5061 (13.17%)
Liberal Democrat: 16806 (43.72%)
BNP: 1213 (3.16%)
UKIP: 1243 (3.23%)
Majority: 2690 (7%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 19137 (52.6%)
Conservative: 10565 (29%)
Labour: 6708 (18.4%)
Other: 5 (0%)
Majority: 8571 (23.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10420 (28.9%)
Labour: 6618 (18.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 19052 (52.8%)
Majority: 8632 (23.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10193 (28.1%)
Labour: 6435 (17.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 18651 (51.4%)
UKIP: 1029 (2.8%)
Majority: 8458 (23.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10056 (24.1%)
Labour: 10965 (26.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 19007 (45.5%)
Referendum: 1423 (3.4%)
Other: 352 (0.8%)
Majority: 8042 (19.2%)
Boundary changes: only minor changes to bring the seat into line with ward boundaries. These result in the gain of around 500 voters in the Hartburn ward of Castle Morpeth. Technically Northumberland`s population was only enough for 3 seats in the boundary review, but the fourth seat was retained due to the sparse population in the North and West of the county. Conservative counter proposals that Hebron Hepscott and Mitford wards be moved into the constituency to equalise electorates were rejected at the inquiry as they would have made an already geographically large seat even bigger. It was proposed at the inquiry that the name of the seat be changed to Berwick-upon-Tweed and Mid-Northumberland to better reflect the seat, but this was rejected in the final proposals.
Profile: The most northerly constituency in England, covering the border town of Berwick-upon-Tweed and much of rural Northumberland. Sparsely populated, it is one of the smallest constituencies in England in terms of population, though covers a large geographical area. Berwick is a market town and seaport, historically contested between England and Scotland. Alwick, the county town of Northumberland, is a rural market town better known for its castle, the seat of the Dukes of Northumberland and the second largest inhabited castle in the country (and the exterior of Hogwarts in the Harry Potter films), the town is within commutable distance from Newcastle and is becoming more of a dormitory town.
The constituency also includes the seaside town of Seahouses, the tidal island of Lindisfarne and the small towns of Wooler and Rothbury, popular with walkers in the Northumerland National Park. The vast majority of the seat though is sparsely populated countryside. Dominated by agriculture, the seat should be a Tory seat in the vein of Penrith and the Border. There is a history of Liberals being elected in the seat prior to the war though, and following the resignation of Lord Lambton in 1973 after tabloid revelations that he used call girls and cannabis, the seat was won by Alan Beith in a by-election. Beith has held the seat ever since, transforming it from an ultra-marginal in the 1970s to the Lib Dem stronghold it is today. It remains to be seen whether Beith can bequest his majority to a Liberal Democrat successor when he decides to stand down.
Current MP: Alan Beith(Liberal Democrat) born 1943, Cheshire. Educated at the King`s School, Macclesfield and Oxford University. Former politics lecturer at Newcastle University. Former councillor on North Tynedale District Council and Hexham District Council. Contested Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1970. First elected as MP for Berwick in the 1973 by-election following Lord Lambton`s resignation, and held the seat in both 1974 elections with a wafer thin majority. Liberal Chief Whip from 1976 until 1987, treasury spokesman from 1987. He was Deputy Leader of the Liberal party from 1985, in 1988 he contested the first leadership election for the newly merged Liberal Democrats, losing to Paddy Ashdown. From 1992 to 2003 he was Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats and served as their Home Affairs spokesman from 1994 to 2001. He stood down from the Lib Dem front bench in 2002. Beith is now the longest serving Liberal Democrat member of Parliament by some distance (the next longest serving is Simon Hughes, elected in 1983) (more information at They work for you)
Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Conservative) Educated at Oxford Polytechnic. Chartered accountant. 
Alan Strickland (Labour) Educated at Oxford University.Alan Beith(Liberal Democrat) born 1943, Cheshire. Educated at the King`s School, Macclesfield and Oxford University. Former politics lecturer at Newcastle University. Former councillor on North Tynedale District Council and Hexham District Council. Contested Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1970. First elected as MP for Berwick in the 1973 by-election following Lord Lambton`s resignation, and held the seat in both 1974 elections with a wafer thin majority. Liberal Chief Whip from 1976 until 1987, treasury spokesman from 1987. He was Deputy Leader of the Liberal party from 1985, in 1988 he contested the first leadership election for the newly merged Liberal Democrats, losing to Paddy Ashdown. From 1992 to 2003 he was Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats and served as their Home Affairs spokesman from 1994 to 2001. He stood down from the Lib Dem front bench in 2002. Beith is now the longest serving Liberal Democrat member of Parliament by some distance (the next longest serving is Simon Hughes, elected in 1983) (more information at They work for you)
Mick Weatheritt (UKIP) Peter Mailer (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 70941
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 20.3%
Over 60: 25.7%
Born outside UK: 2.1%
White: 99.5%
Mixed: 0.2%
Christian: 82.1%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 17.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.4%
Owner-Occupied: 61.2%
Social Housing: 20.6% (Council: 16.8%, Housing Ass.: 3.8%)
Privately Rented: 11.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6%
‘Of course it’s homophobic to vote for an unequal age of consent or to bar a gay couple from adopting. ‘
For all we know Alan Beith could support 18 as the age of consent with heterosexual couples too – he wouldn’t be the first MP to think that
As for the adoptuion I disagree strongly, It seems to me common sense to argue against something that can’t occur naturally – and think of the child ion this day and age when children are notoriously cruel
‘As for half the Tory Party being homophobic – try 80%’
As you may or may not, I’m not one for defending the Tories but I cannot belive 80% are homophobic – if for no other reason than the disproportionately high number of gays in the Tory party
And there the iones who are up front about it. Most people bvelieve there to be a even higher number who are in the closet so to speak
It is quite surprising to see the Tories quite popular with a group which you wouldn’t expect to sympathise with them – but the same is true of the Church of England – they too have a disproportionately high number of gays within their ranks
Alan Beith hjas been an able Parliamentarian and an competent constituency MP. With him standing this seat is safe for the Lib Dems. Without him, the Tories could have a good go
“For all we know Alan Beith could support 18 as the age of consent with heterosexual couples too – he wouldn’t be the first MP to think that”.
It is conceivable but it’s not very likely, is it? If this were indeed the case I’d have thought he might have said so during his 35 years in public life. Since he hasn’t I can say he was happy to continue with an unequal age of consent.
“As for the adoptuion [sic] I disagree strongly, It seems to me common sense to argue against something that can’t occur naturally – and think of the child ion this day and age when children are notoriously cruel.”
Lesbians and gay men have been having children as long as anyone would care to remember; it just happens to have been a political issue (or anything someone has even cared about) for a few years. Go to Brighton, go to Hebden Bridge, go to any town, and look around to see for yourself. It also has never been illegal for single gay people to adopt a child, so I can simply not understand why it’s worse for a stable gay couple to adopt. Is it fair to deduce from your sweeping assumptions about the inferiority of gay people as parents that you are a homophobe too? With bigotry being based on prejudiced assumptions and assertions rather than judging things on a case-by-case basis, you can probably understand why the question has come to be asked. There may be some unfit parents who are gay, just as there are unfit parents who are straight. But using that possibility to ban all gay people from adopting would be a disgraceful and homophobic thing to do. I happen to know half a dozen gay couples with children and I can guarantee you that the children are as healthy and happy as any straight couple’s children I know. In the aftermath of the Baby P case I’m astonished that some ignorant people would still make the case that straight parent good/gay parent bad.
“And think of the child ion this day and age when children are notoriously cruel.”
More cruel than the stigma and damage of growing up in care? What a ludicrous, spiteful and wrong-headed position. I agree bullying is rife in schools and much of it will be, usually by default, homophobic in nature. Thankfully Labour got rid of the outrageous Section 28 to allow the issue to be confronted, which the Tories and no doubt Mr Beith and yourself supported right to the end.
Your ideas about the Tory Party are somewhat strange and certainly news to me, so I’d be grateful for any evidence or statistics in support of your claims.
Along with Colin Breed MP, Mr Beith is infamous within the Liberal Democrats for expressing homophobic, Toryish, illiberal ideas on matters of sexuality and that is why I proposed the initial question with reference to Labour candidate Alan Strickland. Such a strategy would not be the first, nor the last, and it’s easy to see why when so many voters are apparently still submerged in a swamp of bigotry and ignorance.
I hardly think that Alan Beith will consider he is under any threat of losing this seat to Labour so even if he is a ‘homophobe’ ( a ridiculous expression which makes no sense, since the ‘homo’ of homosexual is from the Greek word for ‘same’), I cant imagine he would waste his time in attacking the candidate over his sexuality or anything else for that matter.
Also Alan Beiths views on all manner of issues are informed by his religious faith – I believe he is a methodist lay preacher. He may well take a different view from you on some of these issues, just as Tim Jones does but it would not follow from that that he is likely to be personally hostile to homosexuals. I very much doubt that either would be.
I’m afraid this rather Stalinist attitude is very off putting and does the cause you espouse no favours. People are entitled to take a different view without being shouted down as a ‘homophobe’ or bigot or whatever other label is used as essentially a device to try and silence debate.
I dont think this is the place for you to come and start a row about gay rights and it is irrlevent to this constituency.
I think you’re wrong to take issue with my asking a simple question about how the campaign here may be conducted in view of Alan Beith’s previous gay-hostile (much better than homophobe) positions and the fact that Alan Strickland is a homosexual who may well want to adopt children or seek protection under equality laws in the future. It’s not as though the question is totally erroneous- see Bermondsey in 1982 and Exeter in 1997, amongst many others less well documented.
I dont take issue with you asking the original question – it was a reasonable enough post – I had read it earlier and hadnt seen fit to post a reply of any kind but my response was to the diatribe that immeidately preceded my post.
I think it was unnesecary to get into an indepth discussion about the issues but to be fair you got drawn into an argument with Tim Jones and we have all been there. ANyway it is not my job to moderate, but I do take issue with this tendency, which I described as Stalinist, to label those who disagree with one as ignorant or bigoted. People do have different opinions and they may have just as good reasons to hold them as you do to hold yours, and may have thought them through thoroughly, but come to a different conclusion. That is their right and to dismiss it in the way you do could equally be thought of as ignorant or bigoted.
I found a photo of a withdrawn Routemaster bus (from route 38) on the track road to Lindesfarne in 2006.
It looked a bit out of place.
I can see Berwick producing a result quite like 1992 next time, but then, on the other hand, it could produce a bigger majority for Alan Beith.
(I wouldn’t know whether an outright Tory win is achieveable).
In my “diatribe” I fully responded to every position Tim Jones put, with extensive reasoning and examples for why I proffer my chosen view. If Tim Jones chooses to do the same in his next post then I will read it and judge his position on the merits of his “good reasons”. I thought that is what happened in a discussion?
Incidentally I note you have not put your own views though I can probably make guess why.
(*Apologies for the surplus make*)
Out with homophobes, in with Routemasters, Joe!
I was going to buy one Tim – they were only £2,000 when they started decomissioning them in 2004, but the price shot up as apparently there are actually other people like me.
Then the trouble was
i) where to keep it
ii) how to get parts and change tyres etc, after TfL had decomissioned them.
Alan Beith was campaigning for the A1(M) road to be upgraded according to the local papers about a year ago.
He said the Tories had cancelled a promise in 1992, and Labour hadn’t dealt with it either.
This I suppose means from Newcastle to Edinburgh.
It’s not a bad road though – don’t want a motorway!
It’s actually officially the A1, Joe (no ‘M’) and is single-carriageway for much of the route in Northumberland. As it is, it’s one of the most treacherous roads in the UK and should be dualled forthwith.
http://alnwick.journallive.co.uk/news/over-1300-sign-up-to-northumbe.html
“Incidentally I note you have not put your own views though I can probably .. guess why”
You dont need to guess why – I told you why. It is because I dont think this is the place to have in depth discussions about policy issues, because I dont think the issue is relevent to this seat and because the question doesnt interest me very much. All that was implicit in what I said.
FWIW I broadly agree with Tim Jones’s arguments on adoption. You seem to imply from your comment that I decline to put my own views because I would somehow be ashamed of them, or because I would be worried about you labelling me a homophobe or some such. I assure you neither is the case – obviously one is not likely to be ashamed of a view one holds, unless one thnks instinctively that the view is wrong in some way, in which case one would pretty quickly re-evaluate it. And i’m not likely to be deterred from expressing an oppinion on a matter I want to for fear of being called names – i’ve been called a lot worse. Really these issues are just not of that much interest to me – these are inevitably questions that exrecise people with a particular vested interest and there are more importand political issues that exercise me. As far as any question involving adoption goes, it goes without saying fro me that the interests of the children involved are the only thing that matters and the alleged rights of homosexuals are not only secondary but irrelevent.
‘Bermondsey in 1982 and Exeter in 1997, amongst many others less well documented.’
I’d be the first to say that the homophobic campaigns run by Simon Hughes in Bermondsey and Adrian Rogers in Exeter were pretty appalling verging to absolutely disgraceful
If anything Hughes was worst than Rogers, because at least in the latter’s case his beliefs were consistent with the hard-line Christianity he had always advocated, whereas in the case of Simon Highes, a politician I otherwise admire, it was outright hypocrassy and dishonesty as he was (and is) bi-sexual himself
But these campaigns are a million miles away from anything Alan Beith has said or done
As Pete says, why must one bne labelled as a homophobe for taking what I’d think would be a common sense view on adoption.
I’m sure there are gay couples of both sexes who would make wonderful parents but if you get into a relationship of that nature one of the implications is that you can’t have children yourselves and in the case of adoption the interests of the adopted child should always be paramount and whilst I wouldn’t completely rule it out, I personally would feel uneasy about any child growing up in that type of relationship
I wouldn’t say that makes me homephobe, but a realist
Anywhere outside of Brighton and parts of Inner London, obsessing about gay rights is a definite vote loser.
Outside of the vocal minority, many gay people themselves oppose using children in this way as pawns in the obsessive push for complete “equality” with heterosexuals.
There’s nothing “homophobic” about opposing gay marriage (as distinct from a civil partership) and gay couples adopting children, and such views can in no way be compared to the bigotry of someone like Adrian Rogers.
Beith’s attitude would seem to fit a place like Berwick-upon-Tweed pretty well, and I don’t see why the Labour candidate’s sexuality should be an issue at all.
I’d be interested to know what evidence Tim Jones has for Simon Hughes’ ‘absolutely disgraceful homophobic’ campaign against Peter Tatchell?
Here’s the literature – http://www.geocities.com/byelections79/bermondsey83/Liberal.html
The only reference to Tatchell’s lifestyle I can find is in this leaflet from John O’Grady (who was also filmed singing ‘Tatchell is a poppet’ on the back of a flatbed truck).
I’d be interested to know what evidence Tim Jones has for Simon Hughes’ ‘absolutely disgraceful homophobic’ campaign against Peter Tatchell?
He described himself in campaigning literature as the ‘straight choice’ – the implication clearly being that unlike Thatchell who was homosexual, he was heterosexual – an outright deception
Even Hughes himself has admitted as much, claiming: “I hope that there will never be that sort of campaign again. I have never been comfortable about the whole of that campaign, as Peter knows, and I said that to him in the past . . . Where there were things that were inappropriate or wrong, I apologise for that.”
Of course Hughes never said anything as offensive as Adrian Rogers in Exeter, who called his opponent ‘bent Ben’ amongst other far worst things, but his campaign still tried to profit on the untruth that he, unlike his Labour opponent, was straight – when we now all know that he wasn’t
Hughes exemplorary conduct since being elected to Parliament isn’t really mitigation
“The straight choice.” [!]
that’s funny.
BTW, couldn’t find anywhere to row at Lindesfarne,
but I think you can hire boats at Seahouses, and go to the Farne Islands, all of which I suspect are in this constituency.
I would be pretty sure Bamburgh castle is too.
The phrase in the literature – which you obviously dodn’t bother to read – was ‘a straight choice’ between Hughes and Tatchell. A phrase I’m sure repeated by all parties on hundreds of occassions both before and after.
The vast majority (if not all) of the questionable tactics came from the O’Grady campaign – leaflets like this one:
http://www.geocities.com/byelections79/bermondsey83/ogradyber833a.jpg
Actually fellas I too couldn’t give a hoot about gay rights when it comes to the welfare of vulnerable children; this issue has nothing to do with equality for gay couples and to frame the argument in that way is the most damaging and dangerous lie of all. The only issue is whether or not a child would be better off with a suitable, stable, successful and loving home of two men or two women or whether that child would be better left to rot in state care. Funny how nobody on the other side of this argument actually addresses that point.
Of course this successful argument is the one upon which the law was changed several years ago so unless the Tories are pledging to change the law back (which they aren’t and won’t) the whole debate is pretty much a waste of time. In future, however, I promise to take greater care to remember the sensibilities of middle-class, middle-aged, middle-England males and “obsess” about “alleged” gay rights only at gay pride parties and Stonewall square dances.
“In future, however, I promise to take greater care to remember the sensibilities of middle-class, middle-aged, middle-England males and “obsess” about “alleged” gay rights only at gay pride parties and Stonewall square dances.”
As you well know, the most vehemently anti-gay communities tend not conform to that stereotype whatsoever – being black or muslim.
Middle class, middle aged, middle England males are generally far more moderate in their views on this.
In my limited experience I tend to find that Muslims and blacks (much smaller groups anyway) hold pretty similar social views to middle-aged, middle England males — just that they tend to be more honest and upfront about the fact. Not coincidentally it’s the black and Muslim males who appear to have the greatest problem.
I was working for Peter Tatchell’s campaign in Bermondsey in 1983, and can absolutely confirm that while Hughes himself never publicly referred to Tatchell’s sexuality a goodly number of his party workers were making some pretty unpleasant insinuations on the doorstep. I think that fact was pretty well-known. I write this in answer to Dan’s earlier post.
“but I think you can hire boats at Seahouses, and go to the Farne Islands”
The Farne Islands are famous for the story of Grace Darling.
Interesting that the last three elections here have all had majorities between 8 and 9 thousand.
Seems to be a lot more Tory material coming out now, good quality of production too. Their tails seem up with all the good press Anne-Marie Trevelyan’s A1 Action Group is getting.
If they can put together a strong GE campaign that majority won’t look quite so solid, I think the Lib Dems are shockingly complacent when it comes to Berwick.
Has Beith confirmed that he will still be standing at the next election ?
He has been mentioned as a possible candidate for Speaker. Not sure he wants it. IBut, i he gets it, then he is assured of holding this seat.
Perhaps the Tories should continue to contest it, but that is rather against the courtesies.
Need to think it through.
Beith’s majority is large enough to be almost certainly safe.
However, my personal view was that Beith’s performance in the recent election for Speaker was lacklustre. It wasn’t so much his individual preformance, as that when people were looking something or somebody new the LibDems (in effect) did not really some up with anything. A younger LibDem MP, with less record within the tarnished Commons establishment, should have stood.
The Speakership election was only a small thing, but I think it symptomatic; the LibDem’s don’t seem to have enough new to capitalise from a failing Government and a nondescript Conservative opposition. Perhaps the reason is that the world economy that is doing so badly is basically liberal.
Alan Beith will do better here than a new LibDem candidate would, but there does come a time when being a long-established MP becomes a diminishing asset.
Many people, even those not local to the area, know that the Trevelyan’s have long been influential in Northumberland. It is certainly worth the Conservatives’ while working this seat actively.
The Conservatives should be looking to reduce the LibDem majority to below 3000 so as to give themselves a chance of gaining the seat in 2014 when Beith will presumably retire.
This is probably the safest Liberal seat in the country after Orkney and Shetland.
A Liberal has sat here for all bar 30 years of the past 124 and with Alan Beith standing again, a defending Tory government in 2014/5 is unlikely to make much impression if he retires then.
I recall the LibDems saying exactly the same about Colne Valley in 1987.
Not to mention Cambridgeshire NE and Isle of Wight.
Then there was Montgomery in 1979.
Certainly the LibDems hold the upper hand here but it will be vulnerable when Beith steps down, especially if the Conservatives are able to get within striking range next year.
Richard please go read the history of this seat before your optimism runs away with you again.
I’m sure the Conservatives in Solihull read the history of that seat and decided it was the safest Tory seat in the country..
The failure to take this in 1979 was very disappointing – I watched Decision 79 and it was a late result.
Dear me Pete, I would’nt have thought you’d have jumped on this bandwagon too.
We both know the origins of the Solihull earthquake in 2005 and those factors are not present here in any way shape or form.
Galloglass
I did say that the LibDems have the upper hand here so I don’t think I can be accused of being over optomistic.
Perhaps you should read the history of this constituency before your compacency runs away from you again.
If you did you might notice it was through a byeelection (caused IIRC by a sex scandal) that Beith got elected. But for that it probably would have have had a Conservative MP to this day.
Likewise Richard, we only lost it in the 20′s due to a financial scandal, otherwise it would have been a solid Liberal seat up until this day. (tongue firmly in cheek btw)
More probably it was the Beveridge effect in 1945
The 1987 results here was interesting:
Lib 52.1
Con 29.5
Lab 17.5
Grn 1.0
Almost identical to the 2005 result.
So it seems that this constituency has swung to the Conservatives since then relative to the national situation.
If the Tories do take this one day then Labour could end up second to them.
Not really. 1992 was the Lib low point with the Tory vote upto 32%
The 1970 election result:
Con 50.7%
Lab 27.4%
Lib 22.0%
Compare with Hexham:
Con 52.0%
Lab 35.3%
Lib 12.8%
But for the byeelection the Conservatives would certainly have won here upto 1992 and probably also in 1997 and onwards as the opposition would have been split between Labour and the LibDems.
The LibDems should have a special place in their hearts for Tony Lambton as it was only his indiscretions that have stopped Berwick being a safe Conservative seat.
Of course the Liberals went from 7% nationally in 1970 to 19% in Feb 1974 so theres a good chance Alan Beith would have beaten Lambton in this seat without the scandal.
What you’ve also overlooked Richard is of all the seats won by the Libs in that period, this is the one what has become and stayed solidly Liberal even in the very bad years of 1979 and 1992.
The Liberals contested about 250 seats in 1970, and probably about 500 in February 1974, and I think all of them or almost all in October 1974.
Their vote per candidate was 24% in February 1974.
Their 1979 vote per candidate was on a par with the pre 1974 post war era.
I agree that the Lib Dems will find it tougher here when Beith retires, but if he fights the next election and holds on, then from then on the Tories are surely going to be looking at diminishing returns.
The other cause for the Libs to be optimistic is that they’ve won Berwick/Alnwick districts (2004) and Northumberland (2009) in European elections, when Beith wasn’t the candidate.
I actually would be disappointed for the whole of the north east if the Libs lost this, as I think it’s important we have even a token representation of MPs from each party the region. I would say the same about Hexham, where Peter Atkinson held on – just – in 97.
“Of course the Liberals went from 7% nationally in 1970 to 19% in Feb 1974 so theres a good chance Alan Beith would have beaten Lambton in this seat without the scandal.”
I very much doubt it as the Liberal majorities in the two 1974 elections were only 443 and 73. I’m sure the prominence Beith received from his byeelection win was worth at least 500 votes, he certainly wouldn’t have received many Labour tactical votes without it.
Beith has certainly done a good job in building a good majority but as in many LibDem seats much of that will depend on him rather than the party.
If this area had been the best area in the country for the LibDems as Gallowglass initially claimed then they would have done much better at local level as indeed they have done in parts of SW England.
I’m sure a few years the LibDems in neighbouring Roxbrugh & Berwickshire thought they were secure for ever and then their constituency was gained by the Conservatives in 2007 on a swing of over 9%.
All i can say is that I admire your optimism Richand.
In 2001, quite a number of Lib Dem held seats, with strong incumbents, saw new candidates fighting. Although the personal vote was obvious in several, the new candidates were generally supported. Quite a lot of support transfers from the MP to the party. Without doubt, if the new MP is a let-down, he or she will lose out in the medium term, although no-one should doubt the terrific publicity advantage the incumbent party has in terms of potential for publicity etc. We’ll see – a few Lib Dem incumbents stand down in 2010 – will the “2001 effect” be as strong?
Gallowglass
I like to call it realism
In general though I expect the LibDems to do better than expected although that view took a knock after the LibDem disaster in the south-west this month.
I do actually have bets placed for LibDem MPs from 60 upwards.
I analysed quite a lot of the seats that were not changed in February 1974, and found that in the seats the Liberals stood in the 1960s (and even sometimes in the 50s), their vote was usually no better in 1979, and sometimes lower.
They did extremely well in February 1974.
If they fall to about 17% next time, then they are actually pretty close back to the 1945-79 era (74 apart).
But they will have more seats.
The Conservative share of the vote actually fell here by about 4% in 1979.