Berwick upon Tweed
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 19137 (52.6%)
Conservative: 10565 (29%)
Labour: 6708 (18.4%)
Other: 5 (0%)
Majority: 8571 (23.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10420 (28.9%)
Labour: 6618 (18.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 19052 (52.8%)
Majority: 8632 (23.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10193 (28.1%)
Labour: 6435 (17.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 18651 (51.4%)
UKIP: 1029 (2.8%)
Majority: 8458 (23.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10056 (24.1%)
Labour: 10965 (26.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 19007 (45.5%)
Referendum: 1423 (3.4%)
Other: 352 (0.8%)
Majority: 8042 (19.2%)
Boundary changes: only minor changes to bring the seat into line with ward boundaries. These result in the gain of around 500 voters in the Hartburn ward of Castle Morpeth. Technically Northumberland`s population was only enough for 3 seats in the boundary review, but the fourth seat was retained due to the sparse population in the North and West of the county. Conservative counter proposals that Hebron Hepscott and Mitford wards be moved into the constituency to equalise electorates were rejected at the inquiry as they would have made an already geographically large seat even bigger. It was proposed at the inquiry that the name of the seat be changed to Berwick-upon-Tweed and Mid-Northumberland to better reflect the seat, but this was rejected in the final proposals.
Profile: The most northerly constituency in England, covering the border town of Berwick-upon-Tweed and much of rural Northumberland. Sparsely populated, it is one of the smallest constituencies in England in terms of population, though covers a large geographical area. Berwick is a market town and seaport, historically contested between England and Scotland. Alwick, the county town of Northumberland, is a rural market town better known for its castle, the seat of the Dukes of Northumberland and the second largest inhabited castle in the country (and the exterior of Hogwarts in the Harry Potter films), the town is within commutable distance from Newcastle and is becoming more of a dormitory town.
The constituency also includes the seaside town of Seahouses, the tidal island of Lindisfarne and the small towns of Wooler and Rothbury, popular with walkers in the Northumerland National Park. The vast majority of the seat though is sparsely populated countryside. Dominated by agriculture, the seat should be a Tory seat in the vein of Penrith and the Border. There is a history of Liberals being elected in the seat prior to the war though, and following the resignation of Lord Lambton in 1973 after tabloid revelations that he used call girls and cannabis, the seat was won by Alan Beith in a by-election. Beith has held the seat ever since, transforming it from an ultra-marginal in the 1970s to the Lib Dem stronghold it is today. It remains to be seen whether Beith can bequest his majority to a Liberal Democrat successor when he decides to stand down.
Outgoing MP: Alan Beith(Liberal Democrat) born 1943, Cheshire. Educated at the King`s School, Macclesfield and Oxford University. Former politics lecturer at Newcastle University. Former councillor on North Tynedale District Council and Hexham District Council. Contested Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1970. First elected as MP for Berwick in the 1973 by-election following Lord Lambton`s resignation, and held the seat in both 1974 elections with a wafer thin majority. Liberal Chief Whip from 1976 until 1987, treasury spokesman from 1987. He was Deputy Leader of the Liberal party from 1985, in 1988 he contested the first leadership election for the newly merged Liberal Democrats, losing to Paddy Ashdown. From 1992 to 2003 he was Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats and served as their Home Affairs spokesman from 1994 to 2001. He stood down from the Lib Dem front bench in 2002. Beith is now the longest serving Liberal Democrat member of Parliament by some distance (the next longest serving is Simon Hughes, elected in 1983) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Conservative) Educated at Oxford Polytechnic. Chartered accountant. 
Alan Strickland (Labour) Educated at Oxford University.Alan Beith(Liberal Democrat) born 1943, Cheshire. Educated at the King`s School, Macclesfield and Oxford University. Former politics lecturer at Newcastle University. Former councillor on North Tynedale District Council and Hexham District Council. Contested Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1970. First elected as MP for Berwick in the 1973 by-election following Lord Lambton`s resignation, and held the seat in both 1974 elections with a wafer thin majority. Liberal Chief Whip from 1976 until 1987, treasury spokesman from 1987. He was Deputy Leader of the Liberal party from 1985, in 1988 he contested the first leadership election for the newly merged Liberal Democrats, losing to Paddy Ashdown. From 1992 to 2003 he was Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats and served as their Home Affairs spokesman from 1994 to 2001. He stood down from the Lib Dem front bench in 2002. Beith is now the longest serving Liberal Democrat member of Parliament by some distance (the next longest serving is Simon Hughes, elected in 1983) (more information at They work for you)
Michael Weatheritt (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 70941
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 20.3%
Over 60: 25.7%
Born outside UK: 2.1%
White: 99.5%
Mixed: 0.2%
Christian: 82.1%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 17.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.4%
Owner-Occupied: 61.2%
Social Housing: 20.6% (Council: 16.8%, Housing Ass.: 3.8%)
Privately Rented: 11.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6%
Not really. 1992 was the Lib low point with the Tory vote upto 32%
The 1970 election result:
Con 50.7%
Lab 27.4%
Lib 22.0%
Compare with Hexham:
Con 52.0%
Lab 35.3%
Lib 12.8%
But for the byeelection the Conservatives would certainly have won here upto 1992 and probably also in 1997 and onwards as the opposition would have been split between Labour and the LibDems.
The LibDems should have a special place in their hearts for Tony Lambton as it was only his indiscretions that have stopped Berwick being a safe Conservative seat.
Of course the Liberals went from 7% nationally in 1970 to 19% in Feb 1974 so theres a good chance Alan Beith would have beaten Lambton in this seat without the scandal.
What you’ve also overlooked Richard is of all the seats won by the Libs in that period, this is the one what has become and stayed solidly Liberal even in the very bad years of 1979 and 1992.
The Liberals contested about 250 seats in 1970, and probably about 500 in February 1974, and I think all of them or almost all in October 1974.
Their vote per candidate was 24% in February 1974.
Their 1979 vote per candidate was on a par with the pre 1974 post war era.
I agree that the Lib Dems will find it tougher here when Beith retires, but if he fights the next election and holds on, then from then on the Tories are surely going to be looking at diminishing returns.
The other cause for the Libs to be optimistic is that they’ve won Berwick/Alnwick districts (2004) and Northumberland (2009) in European elections, when Beith wasn’t the candidate.
I actually would be disappointed for the whole of the north east if the Libs lost this, as I think it’s important we have even a token representation of MPs from each party the region. I would say the same about Hexham, where Peter Atkinson held on – just – in 97.
“Of course the Liberals went from 7% nationally in 1970 to 19% in Feb 1974 so theres a good chance Alan Beith would have beaten Lambton in this seat without the scandal.”
I very much doubt it as the Liberal majorities in the two 1974 elections were only 443 and 73. I’m sure the prominence Beith received from his byeelection win was worth at least 500 votes, he certainly wouldn’t have received many Labour tactical votes without it.
Beith has certainly done a good job in building a good majority but as in many LibDem seats much of that will depend on him rather than the party.
If this area had been the best area in the country for the LibDems as Gallowglass initially claimed then they would have done much better at local level as indeed they have done in parts of SW England.
I’m sure a few years the LibDems in neighbouring Roxbrugh & Berwickshire thought they were secure for ever and then their constituency was gained by the Conservatives in 2007 on a swing of over 9%.
All i can say is that I admire your optimism Richand.
In 2001, quite a number of Lib Dem held seats, with strong incumbents, saw new candidates fighting. Although the personal vote was obvious in several, the new candidates were generally supported. Quite a lot of support transfers from the MP to the party. Without doubt, if the new MP is a let-down, he or she will lose out in the medium term, although no-one should doubt the terrific publicity advantage the incumbent party has in terms of potential for publicity etc. We’ll see – a few Lib Dem incumbents stand down in 2010 – will the “2001 effect” be as strong?
Gallowglass
I like to call it realism
In general though I expect the LibDems to do better than expected although that view took a knock after the LibDem disaster in the south-west this month.
I do actually have bets placed for LibDem MPs from 60 upwards.
I analysed quite a lot of the seats that were not changed in February 1974, and found that in the seats the Liberals stood in the 1960s (and even sometimes in the 50s), their vote was usually no better in 1979, and sometimes lower.
They did extremely well in February 1974.
If they fall to about 17% next time, then they are actually pretty close back to the 1945-79 era (74 apart).
But they will have more seats.
The Conservative share of the vote actually fell here by about 4% in 1979.
Richard is right to remind us that the Liberals gained this seat after a scandal. If I recollect rightly the MP (and minister) who resigned was Lord Lambton, who of couurse came from a notable Northumberland family. And the Conservative candidate here comes from a different, and respectable, wellknown Northumberland family.
With respect to history, Richard is right to remind us of Montgomery, which seems to me to have similarities as a rural borders seat. As I recollect, the Liberals were so busy getting ready to celebrate holding Montgomery for 100 years that they lost it in a General Election after 99.
Alan Strickland, the Labour candidate here, has just been selected as a Labour candidate for Noel Park in the London Borough of Haringey. In 2006, two Lib Dems and one Labour councillor were elected in this 3-member ward. One LD, Cllr. Catherine Harris, later defected to Labour and the sole Labour councillor Alan Dobbie has just defected to the Conservatives! In his new leaflet, Mr Strickland says he is “determined to give Noel Park a stronger voice”. Elections will be held here in May. Wonder how that will play in Berwick-Upon-Tweed (and vice-versa)?