Berwick upon Tweed
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14116 (36.72%)
Labour: 5061 (13.17%)
Liberal Democrat: 16806 (43.72%)
BNP: 1213 (3.16%)
UKIP: 1243 (3.23%)
Majority: 2690 (7%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 19137 (52.6%)
Conservative: 10565 (29%)
Labour: 6708 (18.4%)
Other: 5 (0%)
Majority: 8571 (23.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10420 (28.9%)
Labour: 6618 (18.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 19052 (52.8%)
Majority: 8632 (23.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10193 (28.1%)
Labour: 6435 (17.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 18651 (51.4%)
UKIP: 1029 (2.8%)
Majority: 8458 (23.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10056 (24.1%)
Labour: 10965 (26.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 19007 (45.5%)
Referendum: 1423 (3.4%)
Other: 352 (0.8%)
Majority: 8042 (19.2%)
Boundary changes: only minor changes to bring the seat into line with ward boundaries. These result in the gain of around 500 voters in the Hartburn ward of Castle Morpeth. Technically Northumberland`s population was only enough for 3 seats in the boundary review, but the fourth seat was retained due to the sparse population in the North and West of the county. Conservative counter proposals that Hebron Hepscott and Mitford wards be moved into the constituency to equalise electorates were rejected at the inquiry as they would have made an already geographically large seat even bigger. It was proposed at the inquiry that the name of the seat be changed to Berwick-upon-Tweed and Mid-Northumberland to better reflect the seat, but this was rejected in the final proposals.
Profile: The most northerly constituency in England, covering the border town of Berwick-upon-Tweed and much of rural Northumberland. Sparsely populated, it is one of the smallest constituencies in England in terms of population, though covers a large geographical area. Berwick is a market town and seaport, historically contested between England and Scotland. Alwick, the county town of Northumberland, is a rural market town better known for its castle, the seat of the Dukes of Northumberland and the second largest inhabited castle in the country (and the exterior of Hogwarts in the Harry Potter films), the town is within commutable distance from Newcastle and is becoming more of a dormitory town.
The constituency also includes the seaside town of Seahouses, the tidal island of Lindisfarne and the small towns of Wooler and Rothbury, popular with walkers in the Northumerland National Park. The vast majority of the seat though is sparsely populated countryside. Dominated by agriculture, the seat should be a Tory seat in the vein of Penrith and the Border. There is a history of Liberals being elected in the seat prior to the war though, and following the resignation of Lord Lambton in 1973 after tabloid revelations that he used call girls and cannabis, the seat was won by Alan Beith in a by-election. Beith has held the seat ever since, transforming it from an ultra-marginal in the 1970s to the Lib Dem stronghold it is today. It remains to be seen whether Beith can bequest his majority to a Liberal Democrat successor when he decides to stand down.
Current MP: Alan Beith(Liberal Democrat) born 1943, Cheshire. Educated at the King`s School, Macclesfield and Oxford University. Former politics lecturer at Newcastle University. Former councillor on North Tynedale District Council and Hexham District Council. Contested Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1970. First elected as MP for Berwick in the 1973 by-election following Lord Lambton`s resignation, and held the seat in both 1974 elections with a wafer thin majority. Liberal Chief Whip from 1976 until 1987, treasury spokesman from 1987. He was Deputy Leader of the Liberal party from 1985, in 1988 he contested the first leadership election for the newly merged Liberal Democrats, losing to Paddy Ashdown. From 1992 to 2003 he was Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats and served as their Home Affairs spokesman from 1994 to 2001. He stood down from the Lib Dem front bench in 2002. Beith is now the longest serving Liberal Democrat member of Parliament by some distance (the next longest serving is Simon Hughes, elected in 1983) (more information at They work for you)
Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Conservative) Educated at Oxford Polytechnic. Chartered accountant. 
Alan Strickland (Labour) Educated at Oxford University.Alan Beith(Liberal Democrat) born 1943, Cheshire. Educated at the King`s School, Macclesfield and Oxford University. Former politics lecturer at Newcastle University. Former councillor on North Tynedale District Council and Hexham District Council. Contested Berwick-upon-Tweed in 1970. First elected as MP for Berwick in the 1973 by-election following Lord Lambton`s resignation, and held the seat in both 1974 elections with a wafer thin majority. Liberal Chief Whip from 1976 until 1987, treasury spokesman from 1987. He was Deputy Leader of the Liberal party from 1985, in 1988 he contested the first leadership election for the newly merged Liberal Democrats, losing to Paddy Ashdown. From 1992 to 2003 he was Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats and served as their Home Affairs spokesman from 1994 to 2001. He stood down from the Lib Dem front bench in 2002. Beith is now the longest serving Liberal Democrat member of Parliament by some distance (the next longest serving is Simon Hughes, elected in 1983) (more information at They work for you)
Mick Weatheritt (UKIP) Peter Mailer (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 70941
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 20.3%
Over 60: 25.7%
Born outside UK: 2.1%
White: 99.5%
Mixed: 0.2%
Christian: 82.1%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 17.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.4%
Owner-Occupied: 61.2%
Social Housing: 20.6% (Council: 16.8%, Housing Ass.: 3.8%)
Privately Rented: 11.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6%
I suspect it must have counted the morning after as I’m now at part 28 on youtube and he’s still in the studio whining about the electoral system like a broken record.
I don’t recall when his result came in last May. The Guardian used to put time of declaration on their aristotle results service but alack that piece of anoracky information has disappeared.
Alan Beith appears often on Election Night programmes, safe in the knowledge his result won’t be declared until the following day.
Having said that, I can only assume many MPs must travel by air to get to and from their constituencies. I remember watching the 1997 replay and being surprised how quickly Robin Cook and Peter Mandelson had managed to get down to the Royal Festival Hall.
Will this seat be made up to the standard size of electorate if the ConDem proposed redistribution comes into force? In which case, it is difficult to see the LibDems holding it even with AV.
With the LibDem decline in the polls following their participation in the ConDem Government, it is difficult to see even Sir Alan Beith holding this seat as things stand.. Although of course there is probably at lot to happen before the next General Election.
An election on the current boundaries under AV could be very close, although on the current state of the polls the Conservatives should still win.
I notice that in a post some time ago I referred to similarities between this seat and Montgomery, which the Libdems lost at the recent General Election.
I was browsing in Waterstones at a book titled “Crap MPs”. Berwick has two entrants. Lord Lampton, already mentioned, for being caught in bed with prostitutes whilst a defence minister. And, right at the top of the list, Sir Edward Grey, who whilst of personal integrity was almost single-handedly (the other culprit was actually Winston Churchill) ruined the country by pusuading the Liberal candidate to declare war on germany in 1914.
To be fair, this was also Beveridge’s seat following a by-election victory at the end of the Second World War, but the voters kicked him out at the 1945 General Election.
The recent Conservative candidate, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, has as I understand it strong local family roots in a seat where it matters. It could well benefit the Conservatives to stand her again if she is willing.
Beith will be about 72 in 2015, so I would not be very surprised in the circumstances if he stands again, on the lines of Glenda Jackson in Hampstead and Kilburn this time.
Beith must have flown from London to Newcastle on an early morning flight at about 6am in order to get to his count which didn’t usually declare any earlier than 10am. I presume it doesn’t take much longer than an hour to make that journey.
I think the Tories could win this if they really go for it,
although it’s a long way off, and depends how it’s drawn.
This is the best Conservative result here since the 1970s and I found it something of a shock (8.3 % to Con after Cleggmania???).
The north east is a difficult region for the Conservatives to pick up seats, and it can’t be thought of an area that cost them an overall majority.
With the impending electoral shake up it’s not really worth speculating on how current seats may go in the future, but as I’m bored today I thought I’d list the Conservatives’ targets in this region:
1. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland LAB 1,677 3.6%
2. Berwick upon Tweed LD maj 2,670 7%
3. Darlington LAB maj 3388 7.9%
4. Tynemouth LAB maj 5,739 10.9%
5. Bishop Auckland LAB maj 5,218 12.7%
6. Hartlepool LAB maj 5,509 14.4%
7. Sunderland Central LAB maj 6,725 15.8%
In my view only the top 3 are even slightly realistic (Berwick being the most likely) . I also think that this shows the overhyped opportunity in Sunderland central never really existed. I also expect they’ve missed their chance in Tynemouth, and also thought it interesting that in terms of actual votes the Conservatives have an easier task taking Bishop Auckland or Hartlepool.
I’ve just posted on the Hyndburn thread pointing out that whilst, compared to the 1980s, Labour has done well in holding out the Tories in the North, they are down to 1980s levels or further in many seats they have lost in the South.
I suppose one question is how far the Conservatives will manage to get back their position as the main challenger in the more prosperous Northern seats where the LibDems have won or come close to Labour. As well as take rural LibDem seats like this one in the North, particularly as redistribution here would bring in more rural areas.
As per my previous post, I think the Conservatives had a good candidate for a seat where connections matter, and this probably helped them in a seat where a very strong MP is beginning to lose his status – e.g. a decade ago Beith would certainly have taken high office in a LibDem coalition.
The Lib Dems have a reasonable local government presence in Northumberland which should sustain the vote when Beith’s personal vote is eventually lost. However, I would caution anyone making predictions of a Lib Dem rout next time.
First of all, people were insisting the Lib Dems were doomed all over this site for most of the past few years and yet on election day an extra million voters voted Lib Dem.
Secondly, the mass exodus of voters away from the LDs due to the coalition is greatly exaggerated. I have yet to be faced with a genuine “switcher” on the doorstep. Most of the noises seem to emanate from Labour Party activists.
Finally, YouGov’s methodology (and they are doing most of the polling) is seriously flawed. They include a Labour “core vote” weighting several points higher than they actually got on polling day. Effectively, it is impossible for Labour to drop below 30% under their polling methods until all floating voters and a significant number of “Labour Identifiers” are voting for other parties. By contrast, only 12% Lib Dem “identifiers” are included in their sample.
Well my parents voted tactically LD and they’re definitely switching back to Labour, even in Richmond Park. They are not happy with the LDs & the Tories won anyway. My cousin has not only switched back to Labour having knocked up for the LDs (also in Richmond Park) but has rejoined the Labour Party. 2 other former active Party members who left Labour to support the LDs have also rejoined. There are plenty of people like them.
Party activists are hardly representative though, are they.
If they were only working with the Lib Dems on the understanding we would be a proxy for Labour then frankly you’re welcome to them as they fundamentally misunderstood the nature of the Liberal Democrats.
You started off by making a very good point.
There were many people on here predicting a “Lib Dem meltdown” from 2008 onwards. I thought that they were talking nonsense and said so many times. After one rant too many I offered to bet someone on here that the Lib Dems would end up closer to 50 seats than 30 but they refused to accept the bet.
But then you ruined your post by talking a load of tripe yourself.
It is not hard to find switchers from Lib Dem to Lab if you look in the right places, such as inner London. Barnaby’s example can’t just be dismissed as atypical just because he happens to be a Labour activist. The polls are picking it up conistently.
Your attack on YouGov is disengenuous. They predicted the Labour share quite accurately at the election using the methodology you deride, after many Tories also derided them during the campaign. It turned out to be wishful thinking on their behalf, and you are falling into the same trap.
Fortunately for the LDs in most of their seats they are up against the Tories, and in these kind of places their vote will hold up better (helped I’m sure by the Tories going easy on incumbents such as Chris Huhne, no matter what they may say now).
HH – Yougov have changed their methodology since the GE , the effect of the change is to reduce the LibDem % in their polls compared to what it would have been without the change .
Council byelections are not finding lots of switchers from LibDem to Labour , in some places but by no means all , they are finding Libdem previous voters now sitting on their hands .
I would agree with Benjamin that Barnaby’s anecdotal switchers are like most anecdotes not to be believed akin to the “loads of LibDem councillors are going to defect to Labour” which in reality has totalled fewer than the fingers on a one handed man .
If you don’t like the numbers then just make them up