Comments on: Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 22:17:31 +0000

I thought Morpeth itself was a prosperous commuter town, which stuck out like a sore thumb because it’s surrounded by former pit and ship yard towns that hug the southern corner of the Northumerland coast – like Newbiggin, Bedlington, Ashington and Blyth – which are solidly Labour

The Lib Dems are or were popular at a local level but I assumed their vote in Morpeth was largely tactical as the old Alliance was quite competitive in the Wansbeck seat in the 1980s

By: Joe

Joe — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 16:23:10 +0000

Morpeth is hardly properous, in the 3 Morpeth local election results in 2008 ( A v good tory year) The Tories were on 9.6% in Stobhill, 22.4% in North and 14.1% in Kirkhill. (Av about 15%) Admittley slightly beating Lab (12% av), but in any normal year Labour should beat Tory in Morpeth

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 15:33:18 +0000

‘Liberals will probably come 3rd in Berwick if Beith retires.’

Labour achieved 13.7% in 2010 in Berwick and the only significant change is adding the prosperous town of Morpeth – which I presume would have more Tory voters than Labour ones

Like most lonmg standing MP’s Beith obviously has a fairly substantial personal vote but I’d still expect the Liberals to be competitive at the next election

By: akmd

akmd — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 13:35:39 +0000

There’s no way those boundaries for Westmorland will be adopted as all 3 main parties are against it. Their counter-proposal of Westmorland and Penrith to stay largely as they are while Copeland and Workington are merged to become Whitehaven is far more likely to be implemented. I think Farron is one of the Lib Dems more likely to keep his seat. He’ll certainly get a swing against him but it won’t be enough to defeat him. I do think Michael Moore is more vulnerable in this seat though.

By: Joe

Joe — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 13:21:56 +0000

Liberals will probably come 3rd in Berwick if Beith retires. Westmorland correct if Im wrong has been heavily altered and not the safe seat of 2010.

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 12:58:15 +0000

With Sir Alan’s retirement. the Lib Dems will have diffuculties retaining the new Berwick & Morpeth seat but I don’t think they are necessarily brown bread in this seat

One problem the Tories face from becoming so electorally unsuccessful in Scotland is a lack of credible candidates

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 10:37:32 +0000

Yes, there is no question about Westmorland. I think Farron will retain it by around 7000.

The LDs also may still have an outside chance of holding Berwick and Morpeth even with Beith’s retiral although probably a tory gain there.

This seat probably should be a formality for the tories based on recent electoral history but they should not get complacent and they should fight very hard to remain the largest party on Scottish Borders council next year.

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 10:29:46 +0000

‘I think Ming’ll hang on if he stays so my prediction is Sheffield and Fife…’

What about Berwick Upon Tweed or Westmoreland? I know both seats have been substantially redrawn but I would have thought the huge swing to the Lib Dems in Westmoreland at the last election shows that like him or loathe him, Tim Farron is quite a formidable opponent

It’s good that the same people who got it so wrong last time round about Lib Dem losses are quite prepared to come back and repeat their assertions

By: Joe

Joe — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 10:20:14 +0000

Ill raise that to Sheffield and CharlesKennedyLand

By: East of East Lothian

East of East Lothian — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 09:34:42 +0000

Does that mean that you think Edinburgh West is safe Richard? Not so sure given the huge swing to Lab at the GE and to SNP at Scottish Elections. Interesting that in one of Scotland’s most affluent seats the Tories are nowhere.

I think Ming’ll hang on if he stays so my prediction is Sheffield and Fife…