Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16555 (33.78%)
Labour: 5003 (10.21%)
Liberal Democrat: 22230 (45.35%)
SNP: 4497 (9.17%)
UKIP: 595 (1.21%)
Others: 134 (0.27%)
Majority: 5675 (11.57%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18993 (41.8%)
Conservative: 13092 (28.8%)
Labour: 7206 (15.9%)
SNP: 3885 (8.6%)
Other: 2212 (4.9%)
Majority: 5901 (13%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Roxburgh and Berwickshire.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6533 (22.7%)
Labour: 4498 (15.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 14044 (48.8%)
SNP: 2806 (9.7%)
Other: 916 (3.2%)
Majority: 7511 (26.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8337 (23.9%)
Labour: 5226 (15%)
Liberal Democrat: 16243 (46.5%)
SNP: 3959 (11.3%)
Referendum: 922 (2.6%)
Other: 244 (0.7%)
Majority: 7906 (22.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Michael Moore(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Dundonald. Educated at Jedburgh Grammar School and Edinburgh University. Chartered accountant. MP for Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale since 1997. Transport spokesman 1997-2001, deputy foreign affairs spokesman 2001-2005, Lib Dem shadow defence secretary 2005-2006, foreign secretary 2006-2007, for international development since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
John Lamont (Conservative) Born 1976. Educated at Kilwinning Academy and Glasgow University. Solicitor. Contested Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 2005. Member of the Scottish Parliament for Roxburgh and Berwickshire since 2007.
Ian Miller (Labour) Carpet retailer. Chairman of Scottish Co-operative Party. Midlothian councillor. Michael Moore(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Dundonald. Educated at Jedburgh Grammar School and Edinburgh University. Chartered accountant. MP for Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale since 1997. Transport spokesman 1997-2001, deputy foreign affairs spokesman 2001-2005, Lib Dem shadow defence secretary 2005-2006, lib dem shadow foreign secretary 2006-2007, lib dem shadow secretary for international development 2007-2008, Lib Dem Scottish and NI spokesman 2008-2010. Secretary of State for Scotland since 2010 (more information at They work for you)
Paul Wheelhouse (SNP) born 1970, Dundonald. Educated at Stewart`s Melville College, Aberdeen University and University of Edinburgh Management School. Economic consultant.
Sherry Fowler (UKIP)Chris Black (Scottish Jacobite Party)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89370
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 21.9%
Over 60: 24.9%
Born outside UK: 2.7%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 67.2%
Graduates 16-74: 18.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.4%
Owner-Occupied: 59.2%
Social Housing: 25.3% (Council: 14.5%, Housing Ass.: 10.8%)
Privately Rented: 10.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.2%
I was speaking to one of the local Conservative party chairmen (won’t say from which town as that wouldn’t be fair to him) last night. He was very dejected and reckons that the initial euphoria has all but disappeared from the Tory workers, certainly in the central Borders. There are a lot of revelations to come out with regards the previous candidate which may be quite explosive, but are being kept under wraps until after the election.
Going to stick my neck out after our chat last night and Lib Dem majority of 5000+.
Agree with Border Tory – no way the Tories will win now. Moore will probably hold the seat, but the final percentages will be interesting and vital to set the context if there were to be an election later in the year / early next year.
When campaigning for the SNP, I have heard a lot of disgust (spontaneous and not prompted which makes it all the more significant) with Lamont’s decision to stand for this seat. Retrospectively that does appear to have been a major blunder and the Lib Dems are playing that for all it is worth.
If Moore does hold this seat . It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out at next years Scots Parly elections given that Lamont (assuming he stands again) was quite happy to chuck in Holyrood for Westminster after less than one term.
LD HOLD. I’ve always been sceptical about the Tories’ chances here.
Michael Moore Liberal Democrat 22,230 45.4 +3.5
John Lamont Conservative 16,555 33.8 +4.9
Ian Miller Labour 5,003 10.2 -5.7
Paul Wheelhouse Scottish National Party 4,497 9.2 +0.6
Sherry Fowler UK Independence Party 595 1.2 -0.1
Chris Black Scottish Jacobite Party [The] 134 0.3 +0.3
Majority 5,675 11.6
Turnout 49,014 66.4 +2.3
Whoever picked the 5K majority upthread…well done!
The Question is whether the conservative party will hold on at Holyrood now….
On the strength of those figures (the Conservative vote rising faster than everyone else’s) then I see no reason why not. Although a year is certainly a long time in politics…
Clearly there was tactical voting here against the Tories – both the main parties increased their votes by 3000. The question is whether this tactical voting will continue next year, and if it does, whether it will be enough to unseat Lamont.
If there’s a Tory/LD coalition, the answer is – don’t count on it.
It did attract a lot of comment this thread. I am wondering in relation to the fact that Jeremy Purvis seems to be on a roll and may fancy coming off the list and having a tilt at Lamont. If the coalition/ minority deal sees extra power devolved down as per Kalman as well it could give Purvis a boost.
Plus wasn’t Lamont lukewarm on the railway?
COGLOAD – Purvis already represents the neighbouring SP seat on FPTP and will no doubt want to defend that. I think the SNP’s Christine Grahame may unseat him there though
Huge amount of tactical voting with Lib dems (including Judy Steel) campaigning on the basis of vote SNP and you’ll get the Tories (witnessed by a colleague in Hawick). How ironic given what has happened and the Lib Dems will most definitely pay a price for this duplicity at the ballot box.
I tried to warn you about Bubbles Lament …… perhaps the local Tories will now listen. What a disaster he is .
Talk of the Dual Mandate seems rather dated.
A seat for the Tories to have another go at.
Michael Moore is now Scottish Secretary.
If only the local Tory Party had stuck with Chris Walker instead of having a deadbeat candidate foisted on them.
Happy holiday Bubbles and congratulations Mr Moore.
I understood Chris Walker had resigned of his own accord
Matt. You should talk to the people who know the true story.
The Holyrood elections could be interesting!.
Matt – as Saltirethinking says, Chris Walker was left with no option – it was go full time and move to the seat, resign or be sacked, I think.
Interesting that he was, in effect given that choice when Lamont of course was supposed to be a full-time MSP…..leave it to you to work the implications of that one through.
Saltirethinking – intrigued by your final comment – how do you think the Holyrood vote will go?
The Scottish Conservative Party have a policy of not revealing the results of candidate selections, so we don’t know who else apart from John Lamont was on the shortlist for the new selection, or what the actual voting figures were.
I think Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire will be a prime target for the Lib Dems in 2011.
Hi Borderer.
We should not underestimate how unpopular Lamont now is with his own Association. They were willing to forget his role in deposing Chris Walker as long as he won the Westminster election, but as we know……..
He will be short of workers, money, inspiration, motivation and friends. In short,he is just another career politician who doesn’t deliver.(I understand he had already promised his Holyrood seat to another person in return for being a patsie candidate at the Westminster “selection”). Remember the Dual Mandate!.
The Tory Party in Scotland are so ineffectual it’s embarrassing, so I agree with Nooffencealan, that the Lib Dems have a very good chance of unseating Lamont.
Hi Saltirethinking
Very interesting indeed. While I am not a Lib Dem, I agree this will be a fascinating seat and Lamont has effectively told the electorate he doesn’t value the MSP role as much as his favoured job of being an MP. All other parties’ candidates will have greater credibility to say they want to perform the role than he does.
I got the impression there were divisions in the Tory camp, but wasn’t aware of the selection shenanigans or the extent of the divide.
The Tories’ campaign funding may well come under pressure, so that will potentially be a great leveller for Mr Lamont and gives other parties a chance they otherwise might have been denied. In the recent Westminster campaign, Lamont seemingly claimed his campaign was not funded through external funding and it was funded in the main by coffee mornings…..
I know for a fact he was funded in part by on-line donations on Tory websites, so a lot of what he has said himself undermines his own credibility. Where once he was seen as formidable many now see Lamont as a weak link in the Tory chain.
Fascinating times!
Oh yes, the coffee mornings!.
Agree with just about everything you say about Bubbles.
Incidentally did you see what John Greenwell had to say about the enforced removal of Chris Walker ……. and he’s the local Tory Party chairman!.
Finger on the pulse or no pulse at all?.
Ironic that the BBC usually make a special effort of showing the result from Berwick-upon-Tweed at about 12pm on the second day but this time they didn’t show it and it was the closest result in Berwick since 1974.
Both the LD and Conservative votes up substantially, and a rare Labour fall in support in Scotland.
Michael Moore defended government policy fairly effectively on Question Time last week.
They had another panellist, a comedian who I can’t remember his name, on the program aswell. Does anyone know why the BBC keep wasting air time with these comedians on QT?
They are always extreme sanctimonious metropolitan liberal left, and painfully unfunny.
“Does anyone know why the BBC keep wasting air time with these comedians on QT?
They are always extreme sanctimonious metropolitan liberal left, and painfully unfunny.”
You answered your own question Joe.
The ‘alternative’ person I would like to see is the journalist/author Sean Thomas – a regular contributor to PB.
I also think that John Looney should make an appearance on QT.
They’ve had people from other minor parties so why not the OMRLP?
Maybe Richard but he does seem distressingly sensible on occasions.
Indeed he does – I wonder if/when he does his Looney ‘duties’.
One reason why I would like to see John Looney on QT would be the reaction on ordinary viewers.
I can imagine many workplaces etc hearing the comment ‘that Looney bloke talked more sense than the rest of them put together’.
Joe James, I think you misread Moore’s performance.
He did well if you are a purist, in sticking to his script, but the fact that he sounded more Tory than Forsyth at some points will go down like a lead balloon with Lib Dem voters. Where was his own view on Trident?
It is unusual for a panellist to be booed on QT, but he was soundly booed. His excuse for the VAT rise was limp. He was visibly taken aback. Lots more of this for the Lib Dems to expect in Scotland, where they are now as popular as a proverbial release of wind in a lift….8-9% in most recent Scotland sub-samples, albeit those carry a health warning.
Mind you Douglas Alexander takes the prize for brass neck – his head is stuck firmly in the sand over the Labour party’s record on economic (mis)management.
Yes, sub samples are risky.
Actually, the Tories were unlucky not to nose into third place in the election in Scotland.
What really struck me is the SNP only got just under 20% – not dramatically different from the Tories.
Richard, how do you mean I answered my own question?
Unless you mean they put these “comedians” on because they actually want what I described, which is almost certainly the case.
” can imagine many workplaces etc hearing the comment ‘that Looney bloke talked more sense than the rest of them put together’. ”
lol !
except it could be quite apt.
looks like Joe is on the cusp of defecting from the Conservatives to the OMRLP. A sad, sickening blow for the Tories.
It is tough to predict the outcome of next years Ettrick Roxburgh and Berwickshire seat but I’ll have a go.
Con 11500 (-3.1%)
LD 10800 (+0.0%)
SNP 5500 (-0.6%)
Lab 4200 (+4.8%)
there are lot’s of conflicting factors like Lamont’s incumbency, unpopularity of the coalition, historical strength of the lib dems in the borders etc to take into account.
I’m not sure incumbency will be that favourable a factor here for Lamont. Although at the moment i would still expect the Tories to hold. Any recovery in Lib Dem ratings over the next 6 months will start to cause them a few worries though.
Midlothian South, Ettrick and Tweeddale is the other Scottish Parliament seat consisting of parts of this seat so I’ll have a go at predicting it:
SNP 12000 (+2%)
Lab 8500 (+6%)
LD 8000 (-6.5%)
Con 5000 (-1.5%)
The Labour vote in Midlothian last time was down a lot on what it would normally be and i’d expect it to increase this time round. However, the majority of the constituency is still rural borders country with towns such as Peebles and Galashiels so Labour aren’t realistically going to take this seat. The Lib Dem vote will drop to below Labour’s IMO, leaving a notional SNP hold on an increased majority.
@Calum W
Yes that prediction was roughly what I was thinking, the SNP ‘holding’ the seat and the lib dem vote tanking in the Midlothian South part of the seat and going to labour.
The lib dems will probably get the two list seats anyway in the south of scotland if they do not beat lamont so they will be concentrating on defending FPTP seats in edinburgh and the north of scotland.
I believe this constituency consists entirely of wards from Highland Council, which ones please?
you mean Scottish Borders presumably Harry.
Yes Barnaby, Coldstream is in this seat isn’t it, if so then that would make sense!!
I would disagree with A.Brown – I’ve seen some canvassing figures which do not look good for the LDs in the seat so I’d expect the excellent Paul Wheelhouse to make some reasonable inroads into the LD vote, with an increase in the Labour vote also. Lamont apparently made a huge gaffe on the GE hustings which doesn’t bode well for him either, though he should really hold his holyrood seat with a bit of ease.
May be you’re right Calum. The lib dems are in real trouble in Scotland next year. The only type of person that is likely to be voting for the lib dems are people like my mother ( she likes Nick Clegg, was born in Oxfordshire and has been previously critical of Darling and Brown).
2011 – Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire
Con 11500
LD 7800
SNP 7500
Lab 5200
Con Maj 3700
Tweeddale was Peebles-shire and Ettric & Lauderdale was Selkirkshire.
In 1983, Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale would have been ‘Selkirk & Peebles’ had the old county names, as opposed to District Council names been maintained.
I don’t understand why Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Tweeddale was not named Dumfriesshire Clydesdale & Peebles (as the district council names were phased out), particuarly when this seat was named Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk – but perhaps Berwickshire Roxburgh Ettrick & Lauderdale was too long winded.
Why was the new Scottish seat not named Selkirk Roxburgh & Berwickshire?
Perhaps it is because the name would be too similar to the UK constituey name, and the policy of the Scottish BC has been to insure that no Holyrood seat now has the same name as a Westminster constituency (other than the Outer Herbridies, which share the same boundaries).
The original proposal for DCT was something like Annandale, Clydesdale and Peebles. Perhaps ‘Tweeddale’ was felt to offer more continuity from the previous seat. Still, either of them is better than the BCS’s original proposals for the 1983 seats, where TE&L and R&B were to have been named, respectively, ‘Borders West’ and ‘Borders East’.
Dalek’s predicting the LD’s to drop to around 25%.
While there are reasons to believe the LD vote will tank in consts. like Aberdeen Central, Edinburgh western and Edinburgh Northern and leith,
I would have thought the LD vote would hold up better because there was a large swing to the tories last time?
I thought the reason the LDs lost to Lamont was because they were flirting with the SNP!
Lib Dems might have won on the Edinburgh Southern boundaries at the 2010 general election.
Don’t think there is now a huge difference between Southern and Western. Lib Dems could just hold either or lose both to Labour.
I could see the Lib Dems fall to third in Northern & Leith and should notionally lose Central.
I don’t see the Lib Dems even coming even second in Midlothian South & Tweeddale, small SNP majority over Labour there.
I agree with your predictions but my point was that this is the only const. where the LD’s vote could hold up next year but Calum W’s disputed that.
I thought the LD vote was not necessarily centre left/tactical here unlike other parts of Scotland.
Southern Midlothian is being combined with part of the Borders as a new Holyrood seat, but remember that Penicuik, the largest settlement by far in south Midlothian, has always been in this Holyrood seat and is not as Labour/SNP leaning as the other Midlothian towns. Therefore I think it is not inconceivable that the LDs may hold this one..
“Therefore I think it is not inconceivable that the LDs may hold this one..”
The Lib Dems would have to notionally gain this one, as the new boundaries have a notional SNP majority.
I assume this is because much of the Ettric & Lauderdale (Selkirkshire) area that is LD/ Con is being replaced by more of Southern Midlothian Lab/ SNP.
In many respects this is more like the ‘Tweeddale & Moorfoots’ initially proposed by the BC before 1997, and also like the historical Midlothian South & Peebles.
Midlothian Northern was once a Conservative seat but that was because it included areas that are now Conservative parts of Edinburgh Pentlands.
For psephologists, the attempted “sting” on Michael Moore is in some ways more interesting than that on Vince Cable (see “Daily Telegraph” for 22 December).
We learn that Moore is opposed to Coalition policy on university tuition fees; but for Government solidarity he voted for them.
Well, it is notorious that Scottish students are not having to pay tuition fees because of Scottish Parliament policy. So Moore is voting to inflict very very high costs on English students (and their families) whilst students from his own area do not have to pay them. IFor us English, it is taxation without adequate representation.
This is the West Lothian question at its worst. It stinks.
Obviously, Moore’s behaviour on this issue is unlikely to affect how many people in this constituency vote for him – although they might reflect on what such (lack) of principles might mean for them on other issues. But sooner or later it is going to impact on English voting for the LibDems.
Given their federalist ideas (which are actually quite sensible) Scottish LibDems ought to follow the example of the SNP and refrain from voting at Westminster on “English only” matters. And incidentally, as the Scottish Secretary now has so few responsibilities there could be plenty of time at his Commons Question times for MPs to raise the matter.
I posted elsewhere on this site some months ago about the desirability of cutting the number of Cabinet Ministers by a quarter, in line with the planned reductions in public sector employment. Replacement of the Scottish and Welsh Secretaries by one minister for regional matters (including English, and possibly Northern Irish matters) should surely be very near the top of the list for such an exercise.
P.S. My point about the superfluous nature of the Scottish Secretary is made in relation to observation of the Government as a less than satisfactorily effective organisation. It is not meant to be a personal comment on the officeholder.