Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16555 (33.78%)
Labour: 5003 (10.21%)
Liberal Democrat: 22230 (45.35%)
SNP: 4497 (9.17%)
UKIP: 595 (1.21%)
Others: 134 (0.27%)
Majority: 5675 (11.57%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18993 (41.8%)
Conservative: 13092 (28.8%)
Labour: 7206 (15.9%)
SNP: 3885 (8.6%)
Other: 2212 (4.9%)
Majority: 5901 (13%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Roxburgh and Berwickshire.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6533 (22.7%)
Labour: 4498 (15.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 14044 (48.8%)
SNP: 2806 (9.7%)
Other: 916 (3.2%)
Majority: 7511 (26.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8337 (23.9%)
Labour: 5226 (15%)
Liberal Democrat: 16243 (46.5%)
SNP: 3959 (11.3%)
Referendum: 922 (2.6%)
Other: 244 (0.7%)
Majority: 7906 (22.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Michael Moore(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Dundonald. Educated at Jedburgh Grammar School and Edinburgh University. Chartered accountant. MP for Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale since 1997. Transport spokesman 1997-2001, deputy foreign affairs spokesman 2001-2005, Lib Dem shadow defence secretary 2005-2006, foreign secretary 2006-2007, for international development since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
John Lamont (Conservative) Born 1976. Educated at Kilwinning Academy and Glasgow University. Solicitor. Contested Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 2005. Member of the Scottish Parliament for Roxburgh and Berwickshire since 2007.
Ian Miller (Labour) Carpet retailer. Chairman of Scottish Co-operative Party. Midlothian councillor. Michael Moore(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Dundonald. Educated at Jedburgh Grammar School and Edinburgh University. Chartered accountant. MP for Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale since 1997. Transport spokesman 1997-2001, deputy foreign affairs spokesman 2001-2005, Lib Dem shadow defence secretary 2005-2006, lib dem shadow foreign secretary 2006-2007, lib dem shadow secretary for international development 2007-2008, Lib Dem Scottish and NI spokesman 2008-2010. Secretary of State for Scotland since 2010 (more information at They work for you)
Paul Wheelhouse (SNP) born 1970, Dundonald. Educated at Stewart`s Melville College, Aberdeen University and University of Edinburgh Management School. Economic consultant.
Sherry Fowler (UKIP)Chris Black (Scottish Jacobite Party)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89370
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 21.9%
Over 60: 24.9%
Born outside UK: 2.7%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 67.2%
Graduates 16-74: 18.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.4%
Owner-Occupied: 59.2%
Social Housing: 25.3% (Council: 14.5%, Housing Ass.: 10.8%)
Privately Rented: 10.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.2%
Scotland presents the election enthusiast with considerable cause for head-scratching. On paper, this looks like a seat that the Tories could target in 2015 but given their recent record in Scotland, who would bet on them succeeding?
It would still be quite difficult I suspect
particularly as Michael Moore seems to be a little bit rightish for a Lib Dem, like Jeremy Browne,
but this covers an area where the Tories did do well in May 2011
so it’s surely a target.
(I do conceed he is one of the LDs, like Danny Alexander, who does understand collective responsibility when difficult decisions have to be made,
unlike most of them – and the over-rated Cable, for example,
and the dreadful Farron etc).
There are a handful,
even I would admit.
Most of them are not cut out for government though – the very nature of what they are precludes it.
I’d like to get some details of how the town of Hawick votes
in national and local elections.
I have no idea how Hawick votes (but we’ll get a better idea with Labour standing this time).
I’m relatively sure that Jedburgh and surrounds is the tories’ strongest part of the Borders where the tories polled roughly half the vote in the 2007 council elections
Scottish Borders Council 2012 Prediction
Con 13 (+2)
SNP 10 (+4)
LD 5 (-5)
Ind 4 (-1)
Oth 2 (-)
Peter Duncan failed to get elected and the tories have slipped from 11 to 10 seats but they’ve remained 1 seat ahead of the SNP.
Independents and borders party have done well.
Poor Peter Duncan. Must be one of the unluckiest politicians in the entire Scottish Conservatives.
Yes, it’s difficult not to feel a bit sorry for Peter Duncan as it wasn’t necessarily a stupid move to move to the borders to try and further his electoral career.
I think the good news for the tories here is that an Ind/SNP/LD administration has been formed (which should be easy to campaign against in theory) so they should really have a good chance of gaining this constituency regardless of the candidate because the opposition to them will almost certainly be split as well.
It’s more of an immediate priority for them to select a candidate for Galloway and Carrick I would have thought.
I agree. If any Scottish Conservative deserved a bit of career furthering, it should be Peter Duncan. I’m actually quite appalled at how he appears to have been abandoned by the party leadership.
Not a bad record at all for David Steel in Roxburgh, Selkirk and Peebles and then Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale-
1964- 17, 185, 38.87%, +10.11%
1965 by-election- 21, 549, 49.2%, +10.33%
1966- 20, 607, 45.66%, +6.79% (Against 1964)
1970- 19, 524, 42.26%, -3.40%
February 1974- 25, 707, 52.00%, +9.74%
October 1974- 20, 006, 43.65%, -8.35%
1979- 25, 993, 53.10%, +9.45%
1983- 16, 868, 58.46%, +5.36%
1987- 14, 599, 49.94%, -8.52%
1992- 12, 296, 39.89%, -10.05%
Though his last result is rather worrying. It seemed to be that once he was no longer leader of the third party his vote collapsed, although admittedly this had already begun in 1987 quite drastically.
Steel’s best and worst majorities-
1. 8, 539 (29.60%, 1983)
2. 10, 690 (21.84%, 1979)
3. 5, 942 (20.32%, 1987)
4. 9, 017 (18.24%, February 1974)
5. 7, 433 (16.22%, October 1974)
6. 4, 607 (10.5%, 1965 by-election)
7. 2, 520 (8.18%, 1992)
8. 2, 211 (4.90%, 1966)
9. 550 (1.19%, 1970)
Have seen David Steel and Archy Kirkwood’s declarations from the 1983 Election on AndyJS’s coverage of that year on You Tube. Interesting that the colours of the Liberal rosette in the Scottish Borders for a long time was yellow and green-Don’t know if the Liberal Democrats still have this here or not?
I think in 1979 the SNP vote must have gone into meltdown and helped Steel.
Perhaps some Labour people switched tactically aswell.
That was of course well against the national trend – which was much more Liberal switches to the Conservatives,
but there were some places where the Liberals increased with Labour’s help – Richmond, Twickenham, here, Totnes, Newbury IIRC.
You could add Truro and Berwick-upon-Tweed to the list.
The SNP vote remained very low here for many years until they were at last able to poll 17% in Tweeddale Ettrick and Lauderdale in 1992. That of course has not been anywhere near repeated in this current seat.
It remains very surprising that Steel’s vote continued to collapse into the 1992 election, although that may have been a general reflection of the Lib Dems’ crap performance to put it bluntly which saw the SNP pick up most of its rise at their expense.
The Lib Dems performed very badly in particular in Scotland in 1992, but there were increased majorities for Menzies Campbell, Ray Michie, Jim Wallace and Archy Kirkwood. But there steep falls in vote shares for the following-
1. Steel (-10.05%)
2. Johnston (-10.8%)
3. Bruce (-12.0%)
4. Maclennan (-8.6%)
5. Kennedy (-7.81%)
In the cases of Johnston and Bruce they only got back by the skin of their teeth.
Perhaps the 1987 result was a reflection of a strong Labour tide – in Scotland – if not England
although 1992 seemed to be a further slide in his position rather more surprisingly at the hands of the Conservatives (and SNP) but the former have not been able to capitalise on that – whether they ever can remains to be seen.
I don’t think they ever will, JJB. If they haven’t had a seat in the Scottish Borders for 47 years, it’s highly doubtful they will ever again- Although John Lamont holds the equivalent (near enough) seat at Holyrood, at Westminster it seems to have Lib Dem stronghold written all over it.
The terrible results in 1997 removed any opportunity that looked plausible on the Friday morning in April 1992.
This will remain a hard nut to crack for the Tories – depending on how it is drawn.
What you said JJB about the Labour vote in Tweeddale in 1987 seems fair enough- Though the other gainers from Steel’s sharp fall on that occasion were the SNP as well. The Conservatives that election in Steel’s seat were only up by about half a percentage point I think.
Steel’s vote fell by 8.52% in 1987- The increases for his opposition were- Conservatives- +0.74, Labour- +3.73% and SNP- +4.06%. So most of these voters did indeed flock to centre-left alternatives, and this continued into 1992- There was almost a straight switch from Steel to the SNP five years later which was indicative of the trend in Scotland that had emerged- The Lib Dems were collapsing in Scotland at the SNP’s expense and in a seat like this it was just as heavy as places elsewhere in the country where the Lib Dems hadn’t even had any chance of winning anyway.
”The terrible results in 1997 removed any opportunity that looked plausible on the Friday morning in April 1992.”
Agreed. In Roxburgh and Berwickshire Kirkwood had amassed a 22% lead or something like that and Michael Moore had been threatened only by Labour in Tweeddale- Ironic that the majority was down in TE&L in 1997, but not because of the Conservatives (!)
The Tory vote increased in 1992
It did indeed by more than 2%. Sadly the Tory candidate Lloyd Beat died quite suddenly a few years later.
‘I don’t think they ever will, JJB. If they haven’t had a seat in the Scottish Borders for 47 years, it’s highly doubtful they will ever again- Although John Lamont holds the equivalent (near enough) seat at Holyrood, at Westminster it seems to have Lib Dem stronghold written all over it.’
The Lib Dems might remain strong around Selkirk and around Kelso (they were badly destroyed elsewhere at the local elections) but I can honestly see a Tory gain here over a fractured opposition:
2015 most likely IMO
Con 35.1 (+1.3)
LD 28.2 (-17.2)
SNP 19.2 (+10)
Lab 13.3 (+3.1)
Others 4.2
Id be genuinely surprised if we didn’t win here albeit with a poor vote share but a very split opposition. If I were a bookies at this point id put my odds reflecting the most likely vote share at something like
Con 33 2/7
LD 22 4/1
SNP 21 25/1
Lab 20 25/1
Agreed. I foresee a Conservative gain here, given the likely drop in the LD vote and the fractured state of the opposition. I think the Tories will end up with 3 Scottish seats in 2015- this one, Mundell’s seat (though Labour may run him very close indeed) and Aberdeenshire W and Kincardine.