Bedfordshire South West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 26815 (52.81%)
Labour: 9948 (19.59%)
Liberal Democrat: 10166 (20.02%)
BNP: 1703 (3.35%)
UKIP: 2142 (4.22%)
Majority: 16649 (32.79%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 22114 (48.3%)
Labour: 13837 (30.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 7723 (16.9%)
Other: 2140 (4.7%)
Majority: 8277 (18.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22114 (48.3%)
Labour: 13837 (30.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 7723 (16.9%)
UKIP: 1923 (4.2%)
Other: 217 (0.5%)
Majority: 8277 (18.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 18477 (42.1%)
Labour: 17701 (40.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6473 (14.8%)
UKIP: 1203 (2.7%)
Majority: 776 (1.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21534 (40.7%)
Labour: 21402 (40.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7559 (14.3%)
Referendum: 1761 (3.3%)
Other: 608 (1.2%)
Majority: 132 (0.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Andrew Selous(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
Andrew Selous(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)Jennifer Bone (Labour) Rod Cantrill (Liberal Democrat)Martin Newman (UKIP)Mark Tolman (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94571
Male: 49.4%
Female: 50.6%
Under 18: 24.4%
Over 60: 18.7%
Born outside UK: 5.7%
White: 96.8%
Black: 0.7%
Asian: 1.1%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 73.9%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 15.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.6%
Owner-Occupied: 77.2%
Social Housing: 15.7% (Council: 12.4%, Housing Ass.: 3.3%)
Privately Rented: 4.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.7%
Tories almost lost here in 1997.
In fact, this seat which is centred on Dunstable returned Labour MP’s in the 1964. 1966 and 1974, so the 1997 result was retrospectively good for the Tories.
Hi Peter
Is the seat not the successor to Bedfordshire South? In which it only voted Labour in 1966
It also interestingly voted Labour in 1950 when it was first contested, while Luton returned a Tory MP.
In fact although based on Bedforshire south it no longer includes wards from the edge of Luton like Lewsey and Leagrave which are strongly Labour and are now in Luton North. These areas would have accounted for the Labour victory in 1966 (not so sure if they would have existed in 1950 though!)
This was very nearly the worst result in the country for the Tories in 1997. A majority of 21,000 was reduced to just 132. It looks like Labour has lost its chance here now.
1997 showed a larger than average swing against the Conservatives. In Beds SW this was combined with the retirement of David Madel who had been an exceptionaly hard working MP.
David had won the seat from Labour in 1970.
These two factors combined to the drastic drop in the Conservative majority,. Nonetheless they won the seat which had been Labour’s in 1966, so over this period the seat , like many other shire seats south of a line from the Hull to Liverpool, has moved to the right.
With Andrew Selous having established himself here, i would expect the Conservative majority to grow – even if the national polls showed a “no change” position.
This is very much the sort of seat where Labour would have once done well, but where they are in decline, as in most of Herts.
yup we’ve lost our chance here. Dunstable likes to be seen as different from Luton, and politically it now clearly is.
The Tories did very well to hang on here in 97 and 2001
Neither Dunstable nor Leighton Buzzard will ever win any awards for attractiveness and thos seat’s proximity to Luton should have made this a fairly easy gain for Labour, especially given that in 2001 the long-serving David Madel, who had a big persional vote here, stood down
However, despite being very social conservative Andrew Selous has turned out to be a very effective and non-partisan MP and has done well to build up a pretty substantial majority here in 2005
I’d expect him to retain this seat until whenever he decides to stand down
I’m not sure they really did that well, even relatively. There was a 15 point slump in 1997. But I agree with what I think you’re saying – given it’s demographics, it was an achievement to hold a seat like this in 1997, but that is an indication of how far it swung to Thatcher – and held up under Major in 1992.
The more I think about it, the poorer the Labour result in 2001 seems in retrospect. I’d forgotten that David Madel’s personal vote would have been lost in 2001; Labour really should have taken the seat in those circumstances. Perhaps if they’d known in advance that their overall majority would only fall by 12 seats to 167 seats they could have flooded this particular constituency with a lot more party activists.
Maybe so…..I know the Tories were quite pleased with their results in May 1999 though, so perhaps there was an above average recovery for the Tories here, in the council elections. (I think they were awful in 1995).
Perhaps Labour were still wary about their other seats in the area, newly won.
I was looking over some results from February 1974 and surprised to see the Liberals came second in Bedfordshire South then. They are strong now in Houghton Regis, traditioanlly Labour’s best area but not so sure if they were back then. Also some LD support in Leighton Buzzard and Linslade but they are very weak in Dunstable.
Linslade used to be in Buckinghamshire and would not have been added to this seat until 1974, another change that year together with the loss of Leagrave etc which would have impaired Labour chances.
Of course, its overwhelmingly white – a bit of an Essex man type seat all told.
That would be part of the reason that residents of Dunstable dislike Luton so much – the large non-white population of that town.
……….should have read SOME residents of Dunstable of course, to be fair.
Labour have selected Prem Pal Sharma here.
I can see this seat producing a result like 60-23 next time.
60% for the Tories here?
I wouldn’t put it quite that high… 57/58% maybe, but not quite reaching 60.
The Tories couldn’t hit 60% in the 1980s so I think it would have to be an exceptional result for them to hit that level next time.
“I can see this seat producing a result like 60-23 next time.”
The Conservatives already had a big increase in their vote in 2005 and there wasn’t any evidence in the CC elections that they’re going to increase much above 50%.
I can see another big drop in Labour’s vote though.
It would of course be astonishing if the Tories failed to hold this seat.
One may anticipate that Labour will lose a substantial share of the vote. it is not impossible they could come third, but on the figures it does not likely, and such a result would be correspondingly embarassing.
Are UKiP intending to stand again? They made progress here in 2005 as opposed to 2001, and would be expected to hold their deposit next time.
Which seats have included the towns of Leighton Buzzard and Dunstable since 1885? (I believe they were both in the old Biggleswade division until 1918.)
No they were both in the Luton division before 1918. Leighton Buzzard became part of Bedordshire Mid in 1918 while Dunstable remained with Luton until 1950 when Bedfordshire South was formed which contained both Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard where they ahve been since (but renamed Bedfordshire SW in 1983).
Interestingly Bedfordshire South elected a Labour MP when first contested in 1950 while Luton which was surrounded by it elected a Tory – a reversal of the usual pattern (and in contrast to Watford where the paring down of the seat to an urban core created a Labour seat in Watford and a safe Tory Hertfordshire SW (Watford Outer))
Much like in the Worcestershire boundary re-org of 1997 where Worcester was stripped down to Worcester itself (Labour gain) and the surrounding settlements and countryside were transferred to Mid Worcestershire (safe Tory)
Well not really because the new Worcestershire Mid took only a small number of voters (about 8000) from Worcester with the vast majority either coming from the previous Mid Worcestershire or from South Worcestershire. The city of Worcester had already formed the vast bulk of the electorate of the pre-1997 Worcester constituency.
In the cases of Bedfordshire South and Hertfordshire South West, these seats were almost entirely created from territory that had previously been in Luton and Watford respectively.
I should have mentioned that Linslade, which forms a substantial part of the Leighton Buzzard area (Leighton-Linslade parish), was in Buckinghamshire up until 1965 and would therefore have been in the Buckingham constituency until 1974 (and Aylesbury before 1950)
Andrew Selous was on the local news tonight. I’ve lived in Bedfordshire for more than 10 years, and this is the first time I have found out what he looks like. What ever could have caused him to suddenly feel the need to comment on a news story affecting his constituency?
Do you think someone has told him he will be up for re-election within the next 6 months?
Labour are looking for a new candidate here – will select on 28th Nov
No news on Labour candidate? Seems a long time since any activity seen on this selection. I guess the 28th Nov selection didn’t happen.
There have been no boundary changes here affecting voters – (not sure if the boundary has been slightly changed without affecting electors).
CON HOLD – IMO
Anyone know who the new Labour candidate is here
Matt, that would be Jennifer Bone according to their website.
Thanks David
Cons Hold= 13,000 maj
CON 14000
Mark Tolman is the BNP candidate here
C hold maj 14000
Con Hold
Maj 11 400
Con maj 13,000
CON HOLD
On the blog part of this site (…/blog/archives/2753?cp=5) I have posted on what I think the impact of the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill would be on Bedfordshire.
It looks like Bedford Borough and Central Beds together will be allocated 4 constituencies (much as at present), while Luton isn’t big enough for 2, and will have to take in some voters from Hertfordshire somehow. The requirement to be within +or- 5% of the UK quota size will, however, mean boundary changes, since Bedford constituency is only 90% of the quota electorate.
Mid Beds would gain Tebworth, Hockliffe, Heath and Reach, Tilsworth and Stanbridge from SW Beds, which together would just about get Mid Beds over 95% of the UK wide quota.
(This is on recent ward boundaries that were abolished in the move to Unitary or are in the process of revision, whereas the BC will work on the new ward boundaries, but it gives an idea of possibilities.)
Thus SW Beds would become even more tightly drawn around Leighton Buzzard and Dunstable/Houghton Regis, and nearly be split in two, with the only road link 100% in the constituency being the The Rye between Billington and Eaton Bray.
Not ideal, but the alternative would seem to be to take
Leighton and Linslade, and the current SW Beds ward, out of this constituency replacing them with Toddington, Barton le Clay, Shefford, Stotfold and Arlesey etc in a ‘South Bedfordshire’.
On the option of SW Bedforshire even more tightly drawn around Leighton Buzzard and Dunstable/Houghton Regis, the Boundary Commision would have the option of including all or part of the current SE Beds ward in SW Beds constituency, or with Luton South. On the ‘South Bedfordshire’ option, including it in the constituency with Dunstable would make it over large, so it would have to go with a very oddly shaped “West Bedfordshire” or Luton South, I think.
Just noticed that this must be one of the few constituencies that shares its name with one of its wards! (South West Bedfordshire ward of Central Bedfordshire Council)
Of course when it underwent its latest boundary revisions the wards were not identical with the present ones
Another one I can immediately think of is Orpington. I’m sure there are quite a few.
West Ham & Tooting are the others in London. I’m sure there are quite a lot of other ones.
Certainly there are many more if you include wards which make up half the name of a seat.
Just in my own bit of London alone, I can immediately think of Lewisham West & Penge, Bexleyheath & Crayford, Old Bexley & Sidcup and Bromley & Chislehurst.
Not sure how much the Tory share fell here in 1997 – I think it was a particularly horror (from my view) – 16 or 17 points
but it has regained 12.1 points by 2010.
“Just in my own bit of London alone, I can immediately think of Lewisham West & Penge, Bexleyheath & Crayford, Old Bexley & Sidcup and Bromley & Chislehurst”
Of course, the Lewisham West and Penge example does not work because there is no Lewisham West ward and the Penge ward is called Penge and Cator.
I thinmk Plymouth Moor View too
‘Not sure how much the Tory share fell here in 1997 – I think it was a particularly horror (from my view) – 16 or 17 points’
As in common with many similar seats around this area – Milton Keynes North East, Welwyn & Hatfield, Hemel Hempstead, I could go on – although unlike those examples the Tories did hang on here in 97 and 2001, and then bulit up what is now a substantial majority