Comments on: Beckenham

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 08:56:41 +0000

There’s a by-election in Shorlands ward on Thursday (20th October).

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Sat, 06 Aug 2011 19:35:00 +0000

Local election results for this constituency in 2010:

Con 59.5%, LD 21.1%, Lab 13.9%, Green 3.7%, UKIP 1.7%.

This compares to the general election result:

Con 57.9%, LD 20.6%, Lab 14.5%, UKIP 3.3%, BNP 2.1%, Green 1.3%, ED 0.5%.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 15:27:40 +0000

hmm possibly. It would probably be too close to call in 1979 – Tory majority of about 1500 in Fulham and Labour majority of 3500 in Hammersmith, but most of that would have been north of Goldhawk Road. I guess it would narrowly have been Tory actuaclly

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 14:23:10 +0000

Would the 1997-2010 Hammersmith&Fulham seat have been in that category? (Labour in 1979, Tory in 2010).

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 11:41:10 +0000

Erith & Crayford is besides the Batterseas the only seat which Labour won in 1979 which would have voted Conservative in 2010. There are many that did the opposite. Eirth & Thamesmead is indeed unwinnable because of the Greenwich wards, but the boundary changes are likely to be sweeping in this area and if the link witrh Greenwich is broken then a revived Erirth & Crayford (which would extend further south than previously) would be an excellent Tory prosepct

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 10:40:15 +0000

‘Don’t see how you’d get a Tory elected in Erith unless the boundary changes are enormous, and there’s no swing of the political pendulum back to Labour at all.’

There might well be a further swing to the Tories in the next election

The examples of 1983 and 2001 suggest it – and boundary changes will be quite radical and will certainly favour the Tories (as the current boundaries are so obviously to their detriment)

The Tories will be gunning for an outright victory anyway – believing they can take enough Lib Dem & Labour seats – and with the new boundaries they’ll be the massive favourites to win a majority

And for that to happen seats like Erith will be in play

The Tories won it in the 1980s and all the evidence of the last election suggests that WWC voters of such seats are increasingly turning to the Tories

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 23:09:02 +0000

You’re right, there’s no chance of the Tories winning Erith & Thamesmead.

They would have a good chance in the Erith & Crayford seat if it came back.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 22:57:57 +0000

Don’t see how you’d get a Tory elected in Erith unless the boundary changes are enormous, and there’s no swing of the political pendulum back to Labour at all.

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 19:45:59 +0000

‘This shows how the demographics have shifted against the Tories especially in the wards around Penge.’

In Penge yes – but in stark contrast to most of London, South East London – especially the Kent part – has been almost as good teritory for the Tories as the Essex part of London in the far North East of the connurbation

They got a massive swing in Orpington – which isn’t entirely explained by the retirement of one an MP who dedcided his political loyalties based on whichever party was top in the opinion pollls – and did very well in lower middle class seats like Bexley & Sidcup, Bexleyheath, Crayford and Bromley

The Lewisham seats do now look unwinnable from a Tory point of view but Eltham and Erith have enough WWC voters to tip the balance in favour of the Tories next time round

If I were a Tory strategist my efforts woud be concentrated on the western part of the London conurbation, where the Tory fortunes really plumeted

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 18:56:13 +0000

Notional results for Beckenham constitency in 2010 on previous boundries:

1997-2010 boundries

Con 25,929 46.6%
LD 13,665 24.5%
Lab 13,425 24.1%

Con maj 12,264 22.0%

1983-97 boundries (which excluded West Wickham and Coney Hall)

Con 18,880 42.6%
Lab 11,868 26.8%
LD 11,506 26.0%

Con maj 7,013 15.8%

The Tories were 14% down on 1992 in the Beckenham seat of that vintage, in which they got 57% of the vote as opposed to 43% in 2010.

This shows how the demographics have shifted against the Tories especially in the wards around Penge.