Beckenham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 27597 (57.87%)
Labour: 6893 (14.45%)
Liberal Democrat: 9813 (20.58%)
BNP: 1001 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1551 (3.25%)
Green: 608 (1.28%)
English Democrat: 223 (0.47%)
Majority: 17784 (37.29%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 22982 (54.4%)
Labour: 8737 (20.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 8490 (20.1%)
Other: 2016 (4.8%)
Majority: 14245 (33.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22183 (45.3%)
Labour: 13782 (28.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 10862 (22.2%)
UKIP: 1301 (2.7%)
Other: 836 (1.7%)
Majority: 8401 (17.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 20618 (45.3%)
Labour: 15659 (34.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7308 (16%)
UKIP: 782 (1.7%)
Green: 961 (2.1%)
Other: 234 (0.5%)
Majority: 4959 (10.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23084 (42.5%)
Labour: 18131 (33.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 9858 (18.1%)
Referendum: 1663 (3.1%)
Other: 1614 (3%)
Majority: 4953 (9.1%)
Boundary changes: Major. Due to the new cross-borough seat with Lewisham there are major changes to the Beckenham seat, which loses Penge & Cator, Crystal Palace and Clock House to Lewisham West and Penge. At the same time it gains Bromley Common and Keston, most of Hayes and Coney Hall ward and part of Shortlands.
Profile: A south-east London suburban seat covering Hayes, West Wickham, Shortlands, Coney Hall, Keston, Bromley Common and Beckenham itself.Beckenham was already a safe Conservative seat before boundary changes, with the swathe of affluent, leafy, middle-class Bromley suburbia outweighing the more inner-city Penge and Crystal Palace part of the seat. With the removal of the northern part of the seat to form the new cross-brough Lewisham West and Penge seat, and the addition of strongly Conservative wards to the south the remainder of Beckenham becomes a Conservative stronghold – in fact on Rallings and Thrasher`s notional figures it is now the safest Conservative seat in the country.
The seat has always returned a Conservative MP, their majority even surviving the by-election following Piers Merchant`s resignation over a relationship with a teenage researcher in 1997. Jacqui Lait won the by-election with a majority a little over a thousand, but has built up a substantial majority since then. The boundary changes will make it unsurmountable.
Current MP: Bob Stewart (Conservative) Educated at Sandhurst. Retired Colonel. He commanded the Cheshire Regiment in Northern Ireland, and was the commanding officer of UN forces in Bosnia from 1992-1993.
Bob Stewart (Conservative) Educated at Sandhurst. Retired Colonel. He commanded the Cheshire Regiment in Northern Ireland, and was the commanding officer of UN forces in Bosnia from 1992-1993.
Damian Egan (Labour) born 1982. Educated at Hanham High School, Bristol and St Mary`s College, Twickenham. IT training consultant. Contested Weston-super-Mare 2005.
Stephen Jenkins (Liberal Democrat)
Ann Garrett (Green) born 1942. Educated at Central School of Speech and Drama. Teacher and lecturer. Contested Bexley and Bromley in London assembly elections 2004. Contested Bromley and Chislehurst 2005, 2006 by-election.Owen Brolly (UKIP)Roger Tonks (BNP)Dan Eastgate (English Democrat) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81653
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 21.3%
Over 60: 23.1%
Born outside UK: 9.7%
White: 93.2%
Black: 1.7%
Asian: 2.5%
Mixed: 1.7%
Other: 1%
Christian: 73.9%
Hindu: 1.3%
Muslim: 1.4%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 25.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19.2%
Owner-Occupied: 81.3%
Social Housing: 8.7% (Council: 0.8%, Housing Ass.: 7.9%)
Privately Rented: 8.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
That’s probably why all the local councillors looked so pleased when he was selected – they’ll have another chance to be MP for the seat in 10 years or less.
If Jo-Ann Nadler or Tariq Ahmad had won they would most likely have kept the seat for 30 years.
”Disturbingly I overheard an old lady saying she wouldn’t vote for “a devout moslem” (I didn’t know people still used that word).”
Atiq Malik, I said in a previous post before the Selection Meeting that there was no chance of a BME winning here and Tariq Ahmed was wasting his time here and I was 100% right (H. Hemmelig disagreed with me and argued that ”Beckenham is not the kind of place where there are masses of Tory voters who won’t vote for an Asian.”
The comment you heard from that old lady are sickening and appalling to say the least but does not surpirse me in the slightest because I live near this seat and know it well. This is true blue territory, very middle class, very wealthy and very leafy. There’s more chance of me winning the lottery than a BME being selected as the Tory candidate here.
Interesting account of the selection procedure, David. I suspect the party managers did not want a specific candidate getting asked questions that could cause difficulty. This feels familiar from past days when I was in the Labour Party.
As a personal comment, whilst there were points in the last couple of years when I would, as a floating voter, have considered the Tories, I find what seems to me to be their belated adoption of some of the more dubious Labour party management practices,and in particular candidate slection practices, offputting. Putting a psephological hat back on, I wonder if there are other voters – for instance Tory/UKIP waverers, which is not my category – who are reacting likewise. A pity when other Tory innovations, such as the open selection in Totnes, are new and interesting.
I agree with you 100% Frederic with regard to the most un-Tory practices that have crept into the process for the selection of Tory candidates. I have said on here before that I find it the most dispiriting aspect if how the Conservative Party us currently run.
Having said that Labour are still a lot worse. From what I have read on here I understand there are circumstances under which there are shortlist places reserved for members of particular ethnic groups. As Pete Whitehead said in response to one instance of this kind, it is all rather remeniscent of the parliament of apartheid South Africa in the 1980s.
Christian, I don’t know the area as well as you, but I seem to remember people said the same about Witham, but Priti Patel got selected. I am sure teh same was also said before James Cleverley got selected for Bexley & Bromley GLA seat
Christian, I think the only think to add to your analysis is that the electorate on Sunday was not representative of the electorate of Beckenham. The age-profile, sex-profile and political preference were all very skewed.
I don’t think the electorate in Beckenham (with a few exceptions and that’s the case anywhere) would have a problem voting for an Asian candidate , although you may be right to say, winning the Primary was a different vote altogether.
I don’t tend to consider Beckenham to be “very wealthy” although it’s clearly an area that’s very comfortably off. Are there any stats which measure this by constituency?
I suppose it depends on if the Asian candidate is seen as sectarian or not. Most Asian MP’s frankly have been pretty unimpressive
Congratulations to Beckenham Conservatives on selecting Bob Stewart as their candidate; he is an outstanding man and exactly the kind of person one would want representing them in the House of Commons.
I wish him well with the election – excellent choice!
Retaining the Beckenham name for this constituency seems a bit odd given that a chunk of Beckenham won’t actually be in the constituency. Having said, that I’m struggling to think of a decent alternative!
Cons Hold= 17,000 maj
Even more I reckon unless the turnout drops a great deal.
I don’t know. Clearly, the Lib Dems will come 2nd, and they are notoriously difficult to reduce, so in effect the Tories will have to rely on Labour votes in the main to pile on their majority. Now if the Lib Dems are taking Labour votes here too (as the main challenger, which no doubt they are saying at this very moment) they could counteract a lot of the Labour to Tory swing.
At the end of the day, when you already have a 14,000 majority there are very few places higher you can go. I think there will be very few seats with a 20,000 + majority at the next election, largely because of turnout issues.
CON 17500
UKIP could easily get 4-5000 votes here as well.
Also the LDs will comfortably come second. Majority 16-17000 range
C hold maj 19000
Con Hold
Maj 16 500
I fully expect the Cons to hold the seat – it is a core area for them, although the changes might make it a tighter race than expected.
However, a unified two fingers in the direction of the BNP candidate would be nice.
By the way, quite glad that Ms Lait is leaving us. I found it hard to show respect/support/belief in her as an MP when she refused to perform her legal obligations and ask a question regarding VAT in the House. There was me thinking they represented us……
“I fully expect the Cons to hold the seat – it is a core area for them, although the changes might make it a tighter race than expected.”
Claire – assuming you are referring to the recent boundary changes to the seat, these make Beckenham the safest Conservative seat in the country (based on the notional 2005 figures) rather than make the race tighter.
Con maj 19,000
Does anyone know where I can find the exact ward boundaries for this seat. I live in the Copers Cope ward and am curious as to where this seat ends and Lewisham West and Penge begins (now that Clock House etc aren’t part of the Beckenham constituency).
On a totally separate note, the notional 2005 numbers for this seat show the Tories with a vote share of 54.4% which is about 5% lower than other sites quote. Is this to do with the different methods of calculating these notional numbers? The notional majority shown here (33.7%) would not make this the safest Tory seat last time.
David
Search google for “Election Maps”
Thanks, that led me to http://www.election-maps.co.uk which is exactly what I was after. It’s highlighted just how much of Beckenham isn’t in the changed Beckenham constituency!
Con 25000
LD 10000
Lab 6000
BNP 3000
Green 1500
Oth 1500
LD to take clear second place but still be long way behind Cons
Con maj 13000
btw That election map site isn’t working for me… I used to rely on that.. is it working for everyone else?
CON HOLD
If there’s one thing that I really dislike about many MPs today, it is that as soon as they cease to be an MP they immediately pack up and leave their old constituency. You might as well shout from the rooftops “yes I admit I was a carpetbagger, only interested in this area as my way into parliament and government, now I’m out I’m off, and I admit all that stuff in my election leaflets about my love for and strong commitment to this constituency was absolute bollocks”.
Jacqui Lait is, I’m afraid, a prime example. Having stood down as the MP here in May, she sold her taxpayer-funded flat here in June, and pocketed the £100k profit and buggered off to live in Sussex, never to be seen nor heard of in Beckenham again. An absolute disgrace.
I grew up in Ashfield and our MP, Frank Haynes, lived at the end of our street. He was a Londoner, yet when he stood down in 1992 he lived in the same house at the end of our road and remained part of the community until he died. Now there was an MP who truly had love for the area even when it wasn’t providing his salary any more. A pity there aren’t many like that any more.
Vera Baird sold her house in Yellowcar.
Do you blame her?
(Not because of Redcar as a place,
but if she needs to live elsewhere).
I think you’re 80% right though.
There do seem to be quite a lot of new, local MPs in this intake.
Sounds as though Jacqui got somewhat estranged from the local scene and didn’t wish to hang around, but it’s regretable.
“A pity there aren’t many like that any more.”
There are a few about. Doug Naysmith for example went from being Bristol NW MP to being councillor for Avonmouth in his old constituency last May. Any other notable examples people care to name?
In fairness, and heartwarming though such stories are to a degree, there is a lot in Edmund Burke’s approach – MPs aren’t actually meant to be glorified councillors and a lot of the work ought to be about transcending the interests of “your” community and thinking about the national interest instead. No doubt Lait was diligent enough and arguably never pretended to be Mrs Beckenham – she had previously represented Hastings and her husband was (is?) head of East Sussex Council.
Some good points Joe and Norfolk.
Firstly I think it’s maybe slightly different if you have been badly defeated ie. Vera Baird, arguably no-one wants you to hang around.
Norfolk, I agree that MPs shouldn’t be glorified social workers etc. What irks me is that their literature is full of how they love the area so much, then they can’t wait to leave it. Jacqui Lait was as bad as all the others. Her pretty desperate attempt at trumpeting her previous local links amounted to her godmother, Pat Hornsby Smith, being MP for nearby Chislehurst.
Also former MPs profiting massively out of selling taxpayer funded second homes really pisses me off when we are unfortunately having to cut back schools and hospitals.
Jacqui Lait was a genuinely local MP in Hastings & Rye – in fact she’s gone back to live in Rye as it happens, and yes her husband is the leader of the county council there.
I like Jacqui Lait but I think her career is very Westminster related.
She is of course a Scot, so has had to migrate to find a seat,
standing for the Tyne Bridge by-election in 1985 as is well known.
Agree with HH on expenses though (although I haven’t looked much at her particular case).
The real embarrassment is Brian Coleman at Barnet/GLA.
It is also best to have local people if you can, but not always.
I think everyone, politician or not, should have the right to live where they like. Particularly if they have represented more than one constituency throughout their careers.
Bryan Gould, of course, left Dagenham for New Zealand in 1994, having played a prominent part in British politics for years.
I remember my father looking at the leaflet of an independent candidate for our local council, on which the candidate mentioned that he was born and bred in the constituency, etc, etc. My father said he thought that was quite limited in many respects and preferred someone who had links further afield.
Travel broadens the mind, so they say.
Perhaps the ideal is someone who has some connection with the area or nearby
and has returned to the area having done other things with their life.
Martin Vickers in Cleethorpes seems terribly parochial.
(at a distance)
And if we’d restricted it too much we wouldn’t have had Margaret Thatcher.
I wonder what would have happened if Labour had taken the old Beckenham seat in November 1997.
I guess they’d have stood a chance in 2001,
but the Tories would have gained it in 2005.
“There are a few about. Doug Naysmith for example went from being Bristol NW MP to being councillor for Avonmouth in his old constituency last May. Any other notable examples people care to name?”
Martin Brandon-Bravo, Conservative MP for Nottingham South.
Terry Dicks, Conservative MP for Hayes.
Both became county councillors after being defeated in a general election although for wards slightly outside their old constituencies.
Bob Dunn got elected to Dartford council in 1999 after losing his seat.
John Marshall became a councillor in the constituency after losing Finchley & Golders Green.
Reg Freeson was a councillor in Brent after being deselected in Brent East.
Nick Bennett is a councillor in Beckenham, having been MP for a constituency in Wales (Pembroke)
Nick Bennett was previously the leader of the Conservative opposition (then quite a lot larger than today) on Lewisham council.
The 3 wards of Penge & Cator, Crystal Palace and Clock House must have voted heavily for Labour in the 1997 by-election for it to have been as close as it was. The Tory majority was only about 1,300 IIRC.
The ward boundries were different then.
Penge & Cator is made up of about 70% Penge and 30% Cator. Penge would have voted as much as 70% for Labour, as would Crystal Palace. Cator would have been neck and neck, with the Conservatives very marginally ahead.
Labour would have been ahead in Clock House but not enormously.
Which wards made up this seat from 1983-97?
(I wish the Act enacting the 1983 boundary changes was online…the 1997 one is!)
Anerley, Clockhouse, Copers Cope, Eden Park, Kelsey Park, Lawrie Park & Kent House, Penge, Shortlands
Former Labour MP for Cannock (defeated 1983) is…our until recently was a Bedfordshire Councillor.
Brandon Bravo (MP for Nottingham South 1983 – 1992) became a Notts or Rushcliffe councillor.
Helen McElthon (Glasgow Queens Park 1982 – 1983) became a strathclyde regional councillor.
Hamish Watt (MP for Aberdeenshire East 1974 – 1979) became a Grampion Regional Councillor).
Thank you Pete – wasn’t there a Crystal Palace ward during that period? I think the eponymous site of the building was in this seat from its creation until 50 years later when it is now in Lewisham W and Penge
Are we into MPs turned councillors?
Other than those already listed, I can add Brian White (Milton Keynes NE 1997-2005) who is a councillor in MK since 2007
No Crystal Palace is the successor to the Anerley ward
Richard Alexander (MP for Newark 1979-97) became a Newark and Sherwood district councillor until his death a year or so ago
Keith Darvill (MP for Upminster 1997-2001) returned to Havering borough council where he still is
Another MP turned (back) into councillor is Iain Coleman – Labour MP for Hammersmith and Fulham 1997-2005, stood for Hammersmith and Fulham council in 2006, elected as councillor in 2010.
When I started the bit about MPs turned councillors, it was more in the context of retired MPs (rather than defeated ones) remaining active in their communities (H Hemmelig had bemoaned the fact many just upped sticks). The example I gave was Doug Naysmith, who retired in May and was promptly elected councillor in Avonmouth in his old constituency.
Defeated MPs are a slightly different matter. Yes, a lot remain “in the game” but in a lower league, very often in the hope of a comeback. But it isn’t really the same as remaining engaged in your old community when the “glamour” ends, which was HH’s point.
James Lamond (Oldham Central & Royton until 1992) retired to his native Aberdeen, and became a city councillor there in the mid 1990s (alongside his wife, I think).