Beckenham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 27597 (57.87%)
Labour: 6893 (14.45%)
Liberal Democrat: 9813 (20.58%)
BNP: 1001 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1551 (3.25%)
Green: 608 (1.28%)
English Democrat: 223 (0.47%)
Majority: 17784 (37.29%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 22982 (54.4%)
Labour: 8737 (20.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 8490 (20.1%)
Other: 2016 (4.8%)
Majority: 14245 (33.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22183 (45.3%)
Labour: 13782 (28.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 10862 (22.2%)
UKIP: 1301 (2.7%)
Other: 836 (1.7%)
Majority: 8401 (17.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 20618 (45.3%)
Labour: 15659 (34.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7308 (16%)
UKIP: 782 (1.7%)
Green: 961 (2.1%)
Other: 234 (0.5%)
Majority: 4959 (10.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23084 (42.5%)
Labour: 18131 (33.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 9858 (18.1%)
Referendum: 1663 (3.1%)
Other: 1614 (3%)
Majority: 4953 (9.1%)
Boundary changes: Major. Due to the new cross-borough seat with Lewisham there are major changes to the Beckenham seat, which loses Penge & Cator, Crystal Palace and Clock House to Lewisham West and Penge. At the same time it gains Bromley Common and Keston, most of Hayes and Coney Hall ward and part of Shortlands.
Profile: A south-east London suburban seat covering Hayes, West Wickham, Shortlands, Coney Hall, Keston, Bromley Common and Beckenham itself.Beckenham was already a safe Conservative seat before boundary changes, with the swathe of affluent, leafy, middle-class Bromley suburbia outweighing the more inner-city Penge and Crystal Palace part of the seat. With the removal of the northern part of the seat to form the new cross-brough Lewisham West and Penge seat, and the addition of strongly Conservative wards to the south the remainder of Beckenham becomes a Conservative stronghold – in fact on Rallings and Thrasher`s notional figures it is now the safest Conservative seat in the country.
The seat has always returned a Conservative MP, their majority even surviving the by-election following Piers Merchant`s resignation over a relationship with a teenage researcher in 1997. Jacqui Lait won the by-election with a majority a little over a thousand, but has built up a substantial majority since then. The boundary changes will make it unsurmountable.
Current MP: Bob Stewart (Conservative) Educated at Sandhurst. Retired Colonel. He commanded the Cheshire Regiment in Northern Ireland, and was the commanding officer of UN forces in Bosnia from 1992-1993.
Bob Stewart (Conservative) Educated at Sandhurst. Retired Colonel. He commanded the Cheshire Regiment in Northern Ireland, and was the commanding officer of UN forces in Bosnia from 1992-1993.
Damian Egan (Labour) born 1982. Educated at Hanham High School, Bristol and St Mary`s College, Twickenham. IT training consultant. Contested Weston-super-Mare 2005.
Stephen Jenkins (Liberal Democrat)
Ann Garrett (Green) born 1942. Educated at Central School of Speech and Drama. Teacher and lecturer. Contested Bexley and Bromley in London assembly elections 2004. Contested Bromley and Chislehurst 2005, 2006 by-election.Owen Brolly (UKIP)Roger Tonks (BNP)Dan Eastgate (English Democrat) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81653
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 21.3%
Over 60: 23.1%
Born outside UK: 9.7%
White: 93.2%
Black: 1.7%
Asian: 2.5%
Mixed: 1.7%
Other: 1%
Christian: 73.9%
Hindu: 1.3%
Muslim: 1.4%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 25.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19.2%
Owner-Occupied: 81.3%
Social Housing: 8.7% (Council: 0.8%, Housing Ass.: 7.9%)
Privately Rented: 8.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
Dave Nellist (Coventry SE until 1992) was elected to the city council in 1998 and remains on it – in addition to standing in every general election.
Iain Coleman retired from Parliament through illness, from which he still suffers, but he has recovered sufficiently to serve on the Council.
At the time of the Soham murders, John Powley was speaking on BBC News as a local councillor. I thought I recognised the name, and after a few seconds I realised he was the man who used to be MP for Norwich South.
‘Hamish Watt (MP for Aberdeenshire East 1974 – 1979)’
Thought Watt was MP for Banff?
Yes, Harry. Douglas Henderson was MP for East Aberdeenshire.
‘Douglas Henderson was MP for East Aberdeenshire’
Not to be confused of course with Doug Henderson who much later was an MP in Newcastle
Re John Powley, he was leader of Cambridge Council when I was a student there.
I have heard on the grapevine that Col. Bob Stewart is not enjoying his new career as our local MP. He is thought to be particularly unhappy with the whipping system, which he feels is stifling his ability to speak his mind. As a former supreme commander of heroic troops he is presumably not used to being told what to do, certainly not by the geeky 35 year-old former SPADs that staff the whip’s office (the robust chief whip himself admittedly does not come into that category). Bob Stewart already ranks quite high on ConHome’s list of the most rebellious Tory MP’s.
I think it’s very likely that Col. Stewart will be a one-term MP. Especially with radical boundary changes coming up.
One could argue that he should be used to taking orders and showing discipline
I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a one-term MP. He’s one of the oldest of the new Tory intake.
I wouldn’t be surprised that newly elected MPs without a party politics background may not find life as MP so interesting afterall.
There are also people who don’t “fit” into their new role as MP. IIRC the Glaucester MP for the 1997-2001 term decided to stand down after only one term because she didn’t enjoy Westminster’s “atmospher”.
The same, more tragically, was true of Fiona Jones
Paul & Andrea, you are right.
Matthew Parris also wrote in his autobiography how he never really liked being an MP and stood down aged 36.
My source, by the way, is a very good one. I know someone who is “close” to Bob Stewart’s daughter.
John D. As a Retired Colonel I would think Bob Stewart is used to giving orders – something for which backbench MPs do not have much opportunity, And anybody with a military background must be disheartened at defence “cuts” – and perhaps more fundamentally the rectuction in the UK’s world role which has resulted from generations of general political inadequacy at Westminster (by civil servants as well as MPs and ministers).
A generation or two ago, a former miltary man would probably have found the Whips congenial as they were a self-selecting group with a considerable emphasis on ex-officers.
Who are the area Conservative whips responsible for London, and also for Kent? (probably two different people). The information does not seem to come up immediately on Google.
Notional results for Beckenham constitency in 2010 on previous boundries:
1997-2010 boundries
Con 25,929 46.6%
LD 13,665 24.5%
Lab 13,425 24.1%
Con maj 12,264 22.0%
1983-97 boundries (which excluded West Wickham and Coney Hall)
Con 18,880 42.6%
Lab 11,868 26.8%
LD 11,506 26.0%
Con maj 7,013 15.8%
The Tories were 14% down on 1992 in the Beckenham seat of that vintage, in which they got 57% of the vote as opposed to 43% in 2010.
This shows how the demographics have shifted against the Tories especially in the wards around Penge.
‘This shows how the demographics have shifted against the Tories especially in the wards around Penge.’
In Penge yes – but in stark contrast to most of London, South East London – especially the Kent part – has been almost as good teritory for the Tories as the Essex part of London in the far North East of the connurbation
They got a massive swing in Orpington – which isn’t entirely explained by the retirement of one an MP who dedcided his political loyalties based on whichever party was top in the opinion pollls – and did very well in lower middle class seats like Bexley & Sidcup, Bexleyheath, Crayford and Bromley
The Lewisham seats do now look unwinnable from a Tory point of view but Eltham and Erith have enough WWC voters to tip the balance in favour of the Tories next time round
If I were a Tory strategist my efforts woud be concentrated on the western part of the London conurbation, where the Tory fortunes really plumeted
Don’t see how you’d get a Tory elected in Erith unless the boundary changes are enormous, and there’s no swing of the political pendulum back to Labour at all.
You’re right, there’s no chance of the Tories winning Erith & Thamesmead.
They would have a good chance in the Erith & Crayford seat if it came back.
‘Don’t see how you’d get a Tory elected in Erith unless the boundary changes are enormous, and there’s no swing of the political pendulum back to Labour at all.’
There might well be a further swing to the Tories in the next election
The examples of 1983 and 2001 suggest it – and boundary changes will be quite radical and will certainly favour the Tories (as the current boundaries are so obviously to their detriment)
The Tories will be gunning for an outright victory anyway – believing they can take enough Lib Dem & Labour seats – and with the new boundaries they’ll be the massive favourites to win a majority
And for that to happen seats like Erith will be in play
The Tories won it in the 1980s and all the evidence of the last election suggests that WWC voters of such seats are increasingly turning to the Tories
Erith & Crayford is besides the Batterseas the only seat which Labour won in 1979 which would have voted Conservative in 2010. There are many that did the opposite. Eirth & Thamesmead is indeed unwinnable because of the Greenwich wards, but the boundary changes are likely to be sweeping in this area and if the link witrh Greenwich is broken then a revived Erirth & Crayford (which would extend further south than previously) would be an excellent Tory prosepct
Would the 1997-2010 Hammersmith&Fulham seat have been in that category? (Labour in 1979, Tory in 2010).
hmm possibly. It would probably be too close to call in 1979 – Tory majority of about 1500 in Fulham and Labour majority of 3500 in Hammersmith, but most of that would have been north of Goldhawk Road. I guess it would narrowly have been Tory actuaclly
Local election results for this constituency in 2010:
Con 59.5%, LD 21.1%, Lab 13.9%, Green 3.7%, UKIP 1.7%.
This compares to the general election result:
Con 57.9%, LD 20.6%, Lab 14.5%, UKIP 3.3%, BNP 2.1%, Green 1.3%, ED 0.5%.
There’s a by-election in Shorlands ward on Thursday (20th October).