Comments on: Battersea

By: Matt

Matt — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 20:39:25 +0000

Hugh Salmon is standing here for the “Better Battersea” party!

By: Dalek

Dalek — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 11:25:32 +0000

I think the Tories will win here by over 6000 in line with Ladbrokes odds), a larger margin than 1992 and even larger than any of Linton’s majorities.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 21:24:40 +0000

1885-1918 Battersea, Clapham
1918-1950 split between Battersea South and Balham & Tooting
1950-1974 split between Battersea South and Wandsworth Clapham
1974-1983 Battersea South
1983 to date Battersea

By: Harry Porter

Harry Porter — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 21:10:51 +0000

Which constituencies have included present-day Balham ward?

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 23:25:02 +0000

Good posts from RR, Peter Crerar, and Matt, and thanks to Felicity who I think is quite right to correct my point.

Interesting that Northote has only been Labour in 1971 – I assumed it may have been so a bit later, despite the substantial Tory lead in the 80s onwards, but that does make logical sense.

As has been suggested, a very marginal seat which looks like a very likely gain could attract less interest, and a lower than expected majority, but on balance, I think this will swing above average and a swing of about 8% to give the Tories a 5-6,000 majority.

By: Peter Crerar

Peter Crerar — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 22:40:36 +0000

“Re North vs. South Battersea, I don’t think it’s true that North would now be more Tory than South. The Southern half of Battersea has less Council Housing, was always the more affluent, and was the first to really start gentifying to a major extent (excluding the immediate environs of Battersea Park which probably started earlier BUT on a smaller scale) in the 1970s. Its Northcote ward, for instance was always Tory, except in 1971 Labour landslide. Nowadays, the area that ward covers, “Between the Commons” is a textbook study of gentrification.

Battersea North may have some posh flats by the river, but just inland there are still many Tower Block Estates. It also still has a Labour-held ward (Latchmere), whereas there are none in ex-South.

North probably swung more in 1979 as it was “catching up” with South (and there were the initial flurries of gentrification around Battersea Park). However, North’s fundamentals (more Social Housing) have, until very recently, limited its gentrification to a greater degree than the explosion in South (which is nearly all period housing), so I doubt it would have overtaken South in any longterm pro-Tory swing.”

Depends whether you mean the original Battersea North and Battersea South (1955 – 1974) or Wandsworth Battersea North and Wandsworth Battersea South (1974 – 1983).

The 1955 – 1974 Battersea South was largely divided between Battersea North (to form Wandsworth Battersea North) and much of Wandsworth Central (to form Wandsworth Battersea South). The rest of Wandsworth Central and much of Streatham became Tooting.

In 1979, the Labour majority in Wandsworth Battersea North fell from 11142 to 6476 while in South it was by only 2851 to 332.

I think that Labour will be still stronger in the original Battersea North than Battersea South but of the later Wandsworth Battersea North and Wandsworth Battersea South (1974 – 1983), its possible that the Northern division would now be more Tory.

By: Matt

Matt — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 21:43:54 +0000

Joe James – I could see Labour winning all 3 seats in Furzedown and Tooting wards (which would represent 3 gains), but no more than that. As for this seat, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Conservative lead of 12-15% or so

By: Felicity Bowler

Felicity Bowler — Sun, 17 Jan 2010 19:42:36 +0000

The seat is higly-unlikely to the be the first gain if the election is on May 6th. The local elections alongside the General Election will delay declarations in London by at least an hour, and means that it will take longer to declare. The first Conservative gains are lilkely to come in seats where it’s a stand alone election.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 14:57:56 +0000

Jane Ellison said a few weeks ago that she wasn’t taking anything for granted here.
But I wonder, as Andy Stidwill said, if this is likely to be the first Conservative gain on election night,
with Labour snatching the odd seat on Wandsworth council though.

By: RR

RR — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 10:40:17 +0000

Re North vs. South Battersea, I don’t think it’s true that North would now be more Tory than South. The Southern half of Battersea has less Council Housing, was always the more affluent, and was the first to really start gentifying to a major extent (excluding the immediate environs of Battersea Park which probably started earlier BUT on a smaller scale) in the 1970s. Its Northcote ward, for instance was always Tory, except in 1971 Labour landslide. Nowadays, the area that ward covers, “Between the Commons” is a textbook study of gentrification.

Battersea North may have some posh flats by the river, but just inland there are still many Tower Block Estates. It also still has a Labour-held ward (Latchmere), whereas there are none in ex-South.