Battersea
2010 Results:
Conservative: 23103 (47.35%)
Labour: 17126 (35.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7176 (14.71%)
UKIP: 505 (1.04%)
Green: 559 (1.15%)
Independent: 155 (0.32%)
Others: 168 (0.34%)
Majority: 5977 (12.25%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16608 (40.6%)
Conservative: 16273 (39.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5992 (14.6%)
Other: 2055 (5%)
Majority: 336 (0.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16406 (40%)
Labour: 16569 (40.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6006 (14.6%)
Green: 1735 (4.2%)
UKIP: 333 (0.8%)
Majority: 163 (0.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13445 (36.5%)
Labour: 18498 (50.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4450 (12.1%)
Other: 411 (1.1%)
Majority: 5053 (13.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18687 (39.4%)
Labour: 24047 (50.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3482 (7.3%)
Referendum: 804 (1.7%)
Other: 377 (0.8%)
Majority: 5360 (11.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: A London seat in the Conservative flagship borough of Wandsworth. As well as Battersea itself the seat stretches South to include half of Clapham Common and part of Balham. Once a reliable Labour area Battersea underwent gentrification in the 1980s as young professionals split over from Chelsea. As well as affluent areas the seat does still contain some very deprived areas such as the Winstanley Estate. The North of the constituency contains Battersea Park, the power station and New Covent Garden market.
Current MP: Jane Ellison (Conservative)
Jane Ellison (Conservative) Martin Linton(Labour) born 1944 in Sweden. Educated at Christ`s Hospital School and Pembroke College, Oxford. Worked as a Guardian journalist before his election. Served as a PPS since 2001 to, amongst others, Peter Hain (more information at They work for you)Layla Moran (Liberal Democrat)Guy Evans (Green)Christopher MacDonald (UKIP)
Tom Fox (Independent) Runs a garden services business.Hugh Salmon (Putting the people of Battersea First)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87685
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 17%
Over 60: 12.4%
Born outside UK: 26.2%
White: 78.1%
Black: 12.5%
Asian: 4.3%
Mixed: 3.3%
Other: 1.9%
Christian: 63.9%
Hindu: 1.2%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 4%
Full time students: 4.9%
Graduates 16-74: 49.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15.9%
Owner-Occupied: 46.9%
Social Housing: 28.6% (Council: 17.7%, Housing Ass.: 10.9%)
Privately Rented: 21.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.4%
I think the Tories will suffer a small number of losses in Wandsworth in the council elections, because of the General Election turnout, as discussed some time back on various London threads.
However, I think Putney will return a full slate of Tory councillors, and although the Labour group may be a bit larger than at any time from 1990 onwards, it will return another healthy Tory majority overall.
Long live Jane Ellison and I dont like Martin Linton
Re North vs. South Battersea, I don’t think it’s true that North would now be more Tory than South. The Southern half of Battersea has less Council Housing, was always the more affluent, and was the first to really start gentifying to a major extent (excluding the immediate environs of Battersea Park which probably started earlier BUT on a smaller scale) in the 1970s. Its Northcote ward, for instance was always Tory, except in 1971 Labour landslide. Nowadays, the area that ward covers, “Between the Commons” is a textbook study of gentrification.
Battersea North may have some posh flats by the river, but just inland there are still many Tower Block Estates. It also still has a Labour-held ward (Latchmere), whereas there are none in ex-South.
North probably swung more in 1979 as it was “catching up” with South (and there were the initial flurries of gentrification around Battersea Park). However, North’s fundamentals (more Social Housing) have, until very recently, limited its gentrification to a greater degree than the explosion in South (which is nearly all period housing), so I doubt it would have overtaken South in any longterm pro-Tory swing.
Jane Ellison said a few weeks ago that she wasn’t taking anything for granted here.
But I wonder, as Andy Stidwill said, if this is likely to be the first Conservative gain on election night,
with Labour snatching the odd seat on Wandsworth council though.
The seat is higly-unlikely to the be the first gain if the election is on May 6th. The local elections alongside the General Election will delay declarations in London by at least an hour, and means that it will take longer to declare. The first Conservative gains are lilkely to come in seats where it’s a stand alone election.
Joe James – I could see Labour winning all 3 seats in Furzedown and Tooting wards (which would represent 3 gains), but no more than that. As for this seat, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Conservative lead of 12-15% or so
“Re North vs. South Battersea, I don’t think it’s true that North would now be more Tory than South. The Southern half of Battersea has less Council Housing, was always the more affluent, and was the first to really start gentifying to a major extent (excluding the immediate environs of Battersea Park which probably started earlier BUT on a smaller scale) in the 1970s. Its Northcote ward, for instance was always Tory, except in 1971 Labour landslide. Nowadays, the area that ward covers, “Between the Commons” is a textbook study of gentrification.
Battersea North may have some posh flats by the river, but just inland there are still many Tower Block Estates. It also still has a Labour-held ward (Latchmere), whereas there are none in ex-South.
North probably swung more in 1979 as it was “catching up” with South (and there were the initial flurries of gentrification around Battersea Park). However, North’s fundamentals (more Social Housing) have, until very recently, limited its gentrification to a greater degree than the explosion in South (which is nearly all period housing), so I doubt it would have overtaken South in any longterm pro-Tory swing.”
Depends whether you mean the original Battersea North and Battersea South (1955 – 1974) or Wandsworth Battersea North and Wandsworth Battersea South (1974 – 1983).
The 1955 – 1974 Battersea South was largely divided between Battersea North (to form Wandsworth Battersea North) and much of Wandsworth Central (to form Wandsworth Battersea South). The rest of Wandsworth Central and much of Streatham became Tooting.
In 1979, the Labour majority in Wandsworth Battersea North fell from 11142 to 6476 while in South it was by only 2851 to 332.
I think that Labour will be still stronger in the original Battersea North than Battersea South but of the later Wandsworth Battersea North and Wandsworth Battersea South (1974 – 1983), its possible that the Northern division would now be more Tory.
Good posts from RR, Peter Crerar, and Matt, and thanks to Felicity who I think is quite right to correct my point.
Interesting that Northote has only been Labour in 1971 – I assumed it may have been so a bit later, despite the substantial Tory lead in the 80s onwards, but that does make logical sense.
As has been suggested, a very marginal seat which looks like a very likely gain could attract less interest, and a lower than expected majority, but on balance, I think this will swing above average and a swing of about 8% to give the Tories a 5-6,000 majority.
Which constituencies have included present-day Balham ward?
1885-1918 Battersea, Clapham
1918-1950 split between Battersea South and Balham & Tooting
1950-1974 split between Battersea South and Wandsworth Clapham
1974-1983 Battersea South
1983 to date Battersea
I think the Tories will win here by over 6000 in line with Ladbrokes odds), a larger margin than 1992 and even larger than any of Linton’s majorities.
Hugh Salmon is standing here for the “Better Battersea” party!
Dave Priestly standing here for OMRLP
Nicholas Rogers standing here for Jury Team – a real surge in candidate numbers recently here
Cons Gain= 6,000 maj
CON 6500
1. You’ve got the name of my Party wrong! It is actually ‘The Hugh Salmon for Battersea Party’. For some reason, The Electoral Commission invented the name you have and have now made the correction.
2. I can send you a photo if you let me!
I think a lot of you are wrong. For those of us who live here, Battersea has become more divided than ever before. The Conservative voters are more likely to examine the case for credible Independents with an obvious Central Office shoe-in as a candidate and George Osborne, especially, being see as a weakness.
The Labour loyalists will be cheesed off at the more overt wealth surrounding them – as reflected by expensive shops, higher rents and house prices.
My arguments are all fully laid out on http://www.hughsalmon4battersea.co.uk/
No one can foretell just how disillusioned people are and how this will effect the results around the country. I think some surprising constituencies will throw up some surprising results and Battersea may just be one of them.
C gain maj 5000
Conservative gain I would say 7500 majority sharp swing this is a gentrified area formerly New Labour now in keeping with the New Tory party. It fits new Tory profile perfectly one of many gains
Lol Hugh, so you seriously think this will be a shock gain for the Hugh Salmon for Battersea Party do you?
I really hope you hadn’t planned to do anything else with that deposit you’re about to lose?
Con Gain
Maj 2100
Diane Ofori is standing here for the Christian Party according to yournextmp.com. She is listed there as Diana, but her Facebook page says Diane, so I assume that that’s correct.
Poor Mr Salmon is going to be grievously disappointed.
Con maj 4,000
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We are certainly not taking this seat for granted, and a week and a bit ago, canvassing returns in Northcote, which is our strongest ward, and where I live, were not that promising, most people being wavering Tories. I still think we will take it, but with the Liberal surge Neily’s prediction is probably closer to reality than some of the 4000+ ones. There are an awful lot of Labour posters in Northcote too, though I don’t think local Tories are putting many posters up (I am only leafleting).
Sorry to say but this will fall to the Conservatives due to the Lib Dem bounce. Most people I know, are planning to vote Lib Dem, sadly, in order to keep the Tories out of Battersea it would require a tactical vote for Labour which people are not comfortable with doing.
Whitters,
This seat was doing Tory long before the Lib Dem bounce. Labour only just held on in 2005, when they were considerably more popular than they are today. Pre-bounce, the pollsters were taking it as a given that any seat in the Tory top 50 targets was a certain gain; this seat is #4.
If anything, the Lib Dem bounce will make Jane Ellison’s majority smaller, since any Labour waverer tempted across to the Liberals was probably going to stay at home on polling day anyway, whereas quite a few middle class types who might otherwise have voted for the Tories will switch to the Liberals.
Cons 20000
Lab 14000
LD 7000
Green 2500
Oth 2000
Con gain 2500
CON GAIN
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The Battersea declaration was not shown by the BBC (nor I suspect by the other networks as well) because Gordon Brown’s acceptance speech in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath was taking place at the same time.
I’m slightly surprised to see that Labour actually increased their number of votes.
Still, as expected, a comfortable Tory gain.
I suppose the Labour vote did hold up reasonably well – perhaps what there is of a guardianista/ethnic vote prevented a Putney/Wimbledon type swing. The Tories did have some good results in London but they seem to have been in the most affluent areas.
There were plenty of examples in 1979 (the previous time a Labour government was voted out) where Labour increased their votes numerically, even in seats which they lost.
2010 is similar to 1979 in many ways in that the national swing was virtually the same (just over 5%) yet the swings were all over the place in different parts of the country.
Interesting that both Conservative MPs in Wandsworth are women originally from the north of England.
I met Jane Ellison during the Tottenham by-election – she was wearing a Spurs brooch. I wonder if she wore it in Barnsley?
VoteDave is right,
although the Labour share nationally only fell 2.4% in 1979, and they polled 75,000 more votes.
The numbers voting Labour didn’t change much against the two elections of1974 but the increase in turnout, and the decline in the Liberal vote was overwhelmingly to the benefit of the Conservatives.
It was a pretty respectable result given it was fought in pretty bad circumstances.
“I met Jane Ellison during the Tottenham by-election – she was wearing a Spurs brooch. I wonder if she wore it in Barnsley?”
I very much doubt it considering she comes from Bradford.
But as she has lived in London for many years and was a Barnet councillor I doubt see any problem if she has chosen to support a London club while living in the city.
The football fan phonies are those that support a club simply because it is successful or even worse those who ‘support’ a club because it is temporarily fashionable – T Blair being prominent in that group.
I have supported Manchester United since 1965, including when we/they were relegated in 1974. Times have been pretty good for a while though.
(Although I am a Londoner, my father is from Manchester.)
I’m guessing that Latchmere, Queenstown, St. Mary’s Park and Shaftesbury wards were carried by Labour while the other wards were carried by the Conservatives. Would that be a reasonable assertion?
The Tories will have carried both St Marys Park and Shaftesbury easily.
Latchmere easily carried by Labour.
Queenstown too close to call. Most likely very narrowly Labour, something like 42%-41%.
Yes there has been a very big swing to the Tories in St Mary’s Park & Shaftesbury wards in the last 20 years, but Queenstown has a lot of council-built housing still and that is still just within Labour’s reach in the event that the party finally starts to roll the Tories back in the area (who knows, it may never happen). Latchmere must have a very large majority of council-built housing.
I agree with HH and Barnaby and have worked out figures for all London wards which agree with what they say. IN Battersea Labour ahead by about 20% in Latchmere with Queenstown neck and neck but Labour just ahead (42/42 so HH is spot on) and the Conservatives comfortably ahead in every other ward (c. 15% in Fairfield and St Marys Park, 20% in Balham and Shaftesbury, 30% in Northcote)
Thanks for the clarifications, guys.
Barnaby, I live in the Queenstown ward and there is indeed quite a lot of social housing here. The vast Doddington estate is probably the most notable example.
Although the councillors representing this ward are Tory, Labour were still quite close behind and are still just ahead in GEs which is good to know.
What wards were carried by Labour back in 2005 as they must have had a couple more voting for the party to have just kept them in back then?
Labour would have been miles ahead in Latchmere and moderately ahead in Queenstown.
They would have been close behind in Shaftesbury and St Marys Park but most likely they would still have been Tory by a few %. Tories would have comfortably carried Balham, Fairfield and Northcote.
Labour can win in Battersea despite carrying fewer wards as their support is more heavily concentrated.
Doddington used to be in Latchmere too, but was Transfeered to Queenstown for 2002.
The 2002 changes made Latchmere better for Labour (it became semi-marginal in 1998) for although Doddington was lost, the ward gained estates (such as Winstanley) from the northern (and more Labour) half of the abolished St. John Ward whivch covered the area around Clapham Junction and was split 3 ways.
Doddington gave Labour a boost in Queenstown.
‘Tories would have comfortably carried Balham’
How times have changed over the last 30-40 years
I always assumed Balham to be in the Tooting constituency as it’s next door but I remember staying there in the early 90s and even back then Irish builders and the like were selling what were once working-class terraced houses to middle class professionals for a tidy profit
with its drab high street and tube station etc it still has the appearance to the outsider as a lot more run-down than places further North in the constituency