Battersea
2010 Results:
Conservative: 23103 (47.35%)
Labour: 17126 (35.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7176 (14.71%)
UKIP: 505 (1.04%)
Green: 559 (1.15%)
Independent: 155 (0.32%)
Others: 168 (0.34%)
Majority: 5977 (12.25%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16608 (40.6%)
Conservative: 16273 (39.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5992 (14.6%)
Other: 2055 (5%)
Majority: 336 (0.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16406 (40%)
Labour: 16569 (40.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6006 (14.6%)
Green: 1735 (4.2%)
UKIP: 333 (0.8%)
Majority: 163 (0.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13445 (36.5%)
Labour: 18498 (50.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4450 (12.1%)
Other: 411 (1.1%)
Majority: 5053 (13.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18687 (39.4%)
Labour: 24047 (50.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3482 (7.3%)
Referendum: 804 (1.7%)
Other: 377 (0.8%)
Majority: 5360 (11.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: A London seat in the Conservative flagship borough of Wandsworth. As well as Battersea itself the seat stretches South to include half of Clapham Common and part of Balham. Once a reliable Labour area Battersea underwent gentrification in the 1980s as young professionals split over from Chelsea. As well as affluent areas the seat does still contain some very deprived areas such as the Winstanley Estate. The North of the constituency contains Battersea Park, the power station and New Covent Garden market.
Current MP: Jane Ellison (Conservative)
Jane Ellison (Conservative) Martin Linton(Labour) born 1944 in Sweden. Educated at Christ`s Hospital School and Pembroke College, Oxford. Worked as a Guardian journalist before his election. Served as a PPS since 2001 to, amongst others, Peter Hain (more information at They work for you)Layla Moran (Liberal Democrat)Guy Evans (Green)Christopher MacDonald (UKIP)
Tom Fox (Independent) Runs a garden services business.Hugh Salmon (Putting the people of Battersea First)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87685
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 17%
Over 60: 12.4%
Born outside UK: 26.2%
White: 78.1%
Black: 12.5%
Asian: 4.3%
Mixed: 3.3%
Other: 1.9%
Christian: 63.9%
Hindu: 1.2%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 4%
Full time students: 4.9%
Graduates 16-74: 49.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15.9%
Owner-Occupied: 46.9%
Social Housing: 28.6% (Council: 17.7%, Housing Ass.: 10.9%)
Privately Rented: 21.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.4%
[...] which there is an instance in our neighbourhood, which happens to lie within the boundaries of an ultra-marginal. I have no idea what the Tories intend with this stuff. It looks as though Dave / George tossed [...]
We are certainly not taking this seat for granted, and a week and a bit ago, canvassing returns in Northcote, which is our strongest ward, and where I live, were not that promising, most people being wavering Tories. I still think we will take it, but with the Liberal surge Neily’s prediction is probably closer to reality than some of the 4000+ ones. There are an awful lot of Labour posters in Northcote too, though I don’t think local Tories are putting many posters up (I am only leafleting).
Sorry to say but this will fall to the Conservatives due to the Lib Dem bounce. Most people I know, are planning to vote Lib Dem, sadly, in order to keep the Tories out of Battersea it would require a tactical vote for Labour which people are not comfortable with doing.
Whitters,
This seat was doing Tory long before the Lib Dem bounce. Labour only just held on in 2005, when they were considerably more popular than they are today. Pre-bounce, the pollsters were taking it as a given that any seat in the Tory top 50 targets was a certain gain; this seat is #4.
If anything, the Lib Dem bounce will make Jane Ellison’s majority smaller, since any Labour waverer tempted across to the Liberals was probably going to stay at home on polling day anyway, whereas quite a few middle class types who might otherwise have voted for the Tories will switch to the Liberals.
Cons 20000
Lab 14000
LD 7000
Green 2500
Oth 2000
Con gain 2500
CON GAIN
[...] is a certain Tory hold, and it will be a surprise if Labour has retained its tiny majority in Battersea. The finely-balanced one is Tooting, and the outcome will be a big indicator of the national [...]
The Battersea declaration was not shown by the BBC (nor I suspect by the other networks as well) because Gordon Brown’s acceptance speech in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath was taking place at the same time.
I’m slightly surprised to see that Labour actually increased their number of votes.
Still, as expected, a comfortable Tory gain.
I suppose the Labour vote did hold up reasonably well – perhaps what there is of a guardianista/ethnic vote prevented a Putney/Wimbledon type swing. The Tories did have some good results in London but they seem to have been in the most affluent areas.
There were plenty of examples in 1979 (the previous time a Labour government was voted out) where Labour increased their votes numerically, even in seats which they lost.
2010 is similar to 1979 in many ways in that the national swing was virtually the same (just over 5%) yet the swings were all over the place in different parts of the country.
Interesting that both Conservative MPs in Wandsworth are women originally from the north of England.
I met Jane Ellison during the Tottenham by-election – she was wearing a Spurs brooch. I wonder if she wore it in Barnsley?
VoteDave is right,
although the Labour share nationally only fell 2.4% in 1979, and they polled 75,000 more votes.
The numbers voting Labour didn’t change much against the two elections of1974 but the increase in turnout, and the decline in the Liberal vote was overwhelmingly to the benefit of the Conservatives.
It was a pretty respectable result given it was fought in pretty bad circumstances.