Battersea
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16608 (40.6%)
Conservative: 16273 (39.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5992 (14.6%)
Other: 2055 (5%)
Majority: 336 (0.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16406 (40%)
Labour: 16569 (40.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6006 (14.6%)
Green: 1735 (4.2%)
UKIP: 333 (0.8%)
Majority: 163 (0.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13445 (36.5%)
Labour: 18498 (50.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4450 (12.1%)
Other: 411 (1.1%)
Majority: 5053 (13.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18687 (39.4%)
Labour: 24047 (50.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3482 (7.3%)
Referendum: 804 (1.7%)
Other: 377 (0.8%)
Majority: 5360 (11.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: A London seat in the Conservative flagship borough of Wandsworth. As well as Battersea itself the seat stretches South to include half of Clapham Common and part of Balham. Once a reliable Labour area Battersea underwent gentrification in the 1980s as young professionals split over from Chelsea. As well as affluent areas the seat does still contain some very deprived areas such as the Winstanley Estate. The North of the constituency contains Battersea Park, the power station and New Covent Garden market.
Current MP: Martin Linton(Labour) born 1944 in Sweden. Educated at Christ`s Hospital School and Pembroke College, Oxford. Worked as a Guardian journalist before his election. Served as a PPS since 2001 to, amongst others, Peter Hain (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Jane Ellison (Conservative) Guy Evans (Green)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87685
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 17%
Over 60: 12.4%
Born outside UK: 26.2%
White: 78.1%
Black: 12.5%
Asian: 4.3%
Mixed: 3.3%
Other: 1.9%
Christian: 63.9%
Hindu: 1.2%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 4%
Full time students: 4.9%
Graduates 16-74: 49.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 15.9%
Owner-Occupied: 46.9%
Social Housing: 28.6% (Council: 17.7%, Housing Ass.: 10.9%)
Privately Rented: 21.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.4%
Battersea certainly shouldn’t be the priority of the Tories or Labour. The former should be up a bit whilst the latter will certainly fall. Not sure on the LD vote, at most 10%.
Comparison of census figures from 1981 and 2001 for Battersea, with 1981 figures in brackets:
Owner occupied: 46.9% (28.8%)
Local authority: 28.6% (39.2%)
Non-white: 21.9% (21.6%)
I would be surprised by a majority of less than 4900 (the largest majority for the Tories in 1992).
Its more likely to be in excess of 6000.
Not 10,000?
(Redditch)
(!)
The Tory PPC previously stood in Pendle and Liverpool.
I think the Tories will suffer a small number of losses in Wandsworth in the council elections, because of the General Election turnout, as discussed some time back on various London threads.
However, I think Putney will return a full slate of Tory councillors, and although the Labour group may be a bit larger than at any time from 1990 onwards, it will return another healthy Tory majority overall.
Long live Jane Ellison and I dont like Martin Linton
Re North vs. South Battersea, I don’t think it’s true that North would now be more Tory than South. The Southern half of Battersea has less Council Housing, was always the more affluent, and was the first to really start gentifying to a major extent (excluding the immediate environs of Battersea Park which probably started earlier BUT on a smaller scale) in the 1970s. Its Northcote ward, for instance was always Tory, except in 1971 Labour landslide. Nowadays, the area that ward covers, “Between the Commons” is a textbook study of gentrification.
Battersea North may have some posh flats by the river, but just inland there are still many Tower Block Estates. It also still has a Labour-held ward (Latchmere), whereas there are none in ex-South.
North probably swung more in 1979 as it was “catching up” with South (and there were the initial flurries of gentrification around Battersea Park). However, North’s fundamentals (more Social Housing) have, until very recently, limited its gentrification to a greater degree than the explosion in South (which is nearly all period housing), so I doubt it would have overtaken South in any longterm pro-Tory swing.
Jane Ellison said a few weeks ago that she wasn’t taking anything for granted here.
But I wonder, as Andy Stidwill said, if this is likely to be the first Conservative gain on election night,
with Labour snatching the odd seat on Wandsworth council though.
The seat is higly-unlikely to the be the first gain if the election is on May 6th. The local elections alongside the General Election will delay declarations in London by at least an hour, and means that it will take longer to declare. The first Conservative gains are lilkely to come in seats where it’s a stand alone election.
Joe James – I could see Labour winning all 3 seats in Furzedown and Tooting wards (which would represent 3 gains), but no more than that. As for this seat, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Conservative lead of 12-15% or so
“Re North vs. South Battersea, I don’t think it’s true that North would now be more Tory than South. The Southern half of Battersea has less Council Housing, was always the more affluent, and was the first to really start gentifying to a major extent (excluding the immediate environs of Battersea Park which probably started earlier BUT on a smaller scale) in the 1970s. Its Northcote ward, for instance was always Tory, except in 1971 Labour landslide. Nowadays, the area that ward covers, “Between the Commons” is a textbook study of gentrification.
Battersea North may have some posh flats by the river, but just inland there are still many Tower Block Estates. It also still has a Labour-held ward (Latchmere), whereas there are none in ex-South.
North probably swung more in 1979 as it was “catching up” with South (and there were the initial flurries of gentrification around Battersea Park). However, North’s fundamentals (more Social Housing) have, until very recently, limited its gentrification to a greater degree than the explosion in South (which is nearly all period housing), so I doubt it would have overtaken South in any longterm pro-Tory swing.”
Depends whether you mean the original Battersea North and Battersea South (1955 – 1974) or Wandsworth Battersea North and Wandsworth Battersea South (1974 – 1983).
The 1955 – 1974 Battersea South was largely divided between Battersea North (to form Wandsworth Battersea North) and much of Wandsworth Central (to form Wandsworth Battersea South). The rest of Wandsworth Central and much of Streatham became Tooting.
In 1979, the Labour majority in Wandsworth Battersea North fell from 11142 to 6476 while in South it was by only 2851 to 332.
I think that Labour will be still stronger in the original Battersea North than Battersea South but of the later Wandsworth Battersea North and Wandsworth Battersea South (1974 – 1983), its possible that the Northern division would now be more Tory.
Good posts from RR, Peter Crerar, and Matt, and thanks to Felicity who I think is quite right to correct my point.
Interesting that Northote has only been Labour in 1971 – I assumed it may have been so a bit later, despite the substantial Tory lead in the 80s onwards, but that does make logical sense.
As has been suggested, a very marginal seat which looks like a very likely gain could attract less interest, and a lower than expected majority, but on balance, I think this will swing above average and a swing of about 8% to give the Tories a 5-6,000 majority.
Which constituencies have included present-day Balham ward?
1885-1918 Battersea, Clapham
1918-1950 split between Battersea South and Balham & Tooting
1950-1974 split between Battersea South and Wandsworth Clapham
1974-1983 Battersea South
1983 to date Battersea