Batley and Spen
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17159 (33.57%)
Labour: 21565 (42.19%)
Liberal Democrat: 8095 (15.84%)
BNP: 3685 (7.21%)
Green: 605 (1.18%)
Majority: 4406 (8.62%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20684 (45.2%)
Conservative: 13870 (30.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 6683 (14.6%)
Other: 4482 (9.8%)
Majority: 6814 (14.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12186 (31.1%)
Labour: 17974 (45.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5731 (14.6%)
BNP: 2668 (6.8%)
Green: 649 (1.7%)
Majority: 5788 (14.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14160 (36.7%)
Labour: 19224 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 3989 (10.3%)
UKIP: 574 (1.5%)
Green: 595 (1.5%)
Majority: 5064 (13.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17072 (36.4%)
Labour: 23213 (49.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4133 (8.8%)
Referendum: 1691 (3.6%)
Other: 856 (1.8%)
Majority: 6141 (13.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Mike Wood(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Janice Small (Conservative) Mike Wood(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Neil Bentley (Liberal Democrat)Matt Blakeley (Green) David Exley (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 100228
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 25.2%
Over 60: 18.5%
Born outside UK: 7.6%
White: 83.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 14.7%
Mixed: 0.8%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 67%
Muslim: 14.3%
Full time students: 2.9%
Graduates 16-74: 12.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 36.7%
Owner-Occupied: 70.6%
Social Housing: 18.5% (Council: 15%, Housing Ass.: 3.5%)
Privately Rented: 6.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 22.8%
It’s becoming clear that this seat is very kind to incumbents. Even when Elizabeth Peacock lost in 1997, the swing to Labour was only about 2/3 of the national average. Since then, while the country has swung about 10% to the Conservatives, Mike Wood has restricted the swing against him to, I would estimate, not much more than 2%. It could well be that both have been well-above-average incumbents, and certainly neither has been overly beholden to the party line and have been able to maintain an air of independence (Wood is a Campaign Group member). One suspects that Wood will have to retire before the Tories can win again – and it could well be that, by that time, the swing of the national pendulum won’t be in the right direction for that to happen either.
See minimal change here in 2012 elections. Lab will comfortably hold Batley East and West and Heckmondwike, Cons will hold Birst/Birks. Could be surprises in Liv/Gom where Lab may threaten Cons, and could Pinnock be under threat from Labour in Cleckheaton? If so Libs would have a full house of defeats in Kirklees.