Comments on: Bath

By: Philip

Philip — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 23:44:16 +0000

I agree with Joe James B, but wish to add that the old situation existing in the 1960s and early 1970s could indeed return here if the Lib Dems suffer a terrible drubbing at the next election. The centre-left vote could once again be split, and the Boundary Commission may encompass more of the surrounding rural areas too. This could become a Conservative Lib Dem marginal again.

By: akmd

akmd — Sun, 29 May 2011 16:21:34 +0000

There does appear to have been an increase in the number of people studying at the University. It is highly regarded and usually appears in the top 10 or just outside of it on the various university rankings. The city’s 2nd university, Bath Spa, has also seen a rise in both students and reputation in recent years so it does seem that the academic and student populations are having an influence on the election results in the constituency.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 29 May 2011 15:09:48 +0000

I don’t know why the C result here was so poor last time.
Don Foster strikes me as not very charismatic and any personal vote should have already been built up.

The Labour vote has got even more behind him, but it’s not the full story, as the Tory vote has basically flatlined despite a mildly encouraging result in 2005.

Is the University and related population actually increasing? It would suggest that Labour should do better rather than the LDs in current circumstances.

By: akmd

akmd — Sun, 29 May 2011 14:41:01 +0000

Yes, Bath and Harrogate aren’t really comparable in terms of demographics. Comparing Bath with Cheltenham would be a fairer one to make as like Bath, Cheltenham has trended away from the Tories over the past 20 years and despite the smaller majority still won’t be easy for them to gain.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Sun, 29 May 2011 14:21:52 +0000

Very unlikely. Unlike Harrogate, Bath is increasingly important as a university town, with a growing population of academics, staff and students who are mostly hostile to voting Conservative.

This seat will become more like Cambridge, Hallam and Leeds NW – former Conservative strongholds which will never go back due to the prominence of the university and public sector employment.

It is important to remember that the council area also covers the North East Somerset constituency which is obviously much stronger for the Tories than Bath itself.

By: P

Sun, 29 May 2011 13:09:10 +0000

The local authority bucked the national trend and saw the Lib Dems make gains here. The Conservatives were just one seat away from taking control, but instead lost three and are now level pegging with the Lib Dems.

Certainly a surprising result in the General election, not in the sense of the actual winner, but the marginality of Don Foster’s victory. It was expected that the Cameron brand of moderate, compassionate conservatism would be best received in areas like this, but failed.

Certainly Don Foster’s incumbancy will have helped the Lib Dems, and if he retires this could go the same way as Harrogate and Knaresborough with a strong Conservative campaign.

By: WHS

WHS — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 22:00:59 +0000

@AndyJS

I have responded to you on the Chelsea & Fulham thread. Cheers.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Sun, 14 Nov 2010 03:47:04 +0000

It’s true that this is one of UKIPs worst prospects in the south-west region but they probably still have more support here than in a lot of inner London constituencies for example.

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Sun, 14 Nov 2010 00:09:58 +0000

Only just seen this from before the general election –
“May I ask that My portrait and link be published as Bath is a target UKIP seat”
I can think of few seats where I would expect UKIP to do worse than this constituency!

By: DW

DW — Sat, 13 Nov 2010 20:38:46 +0000

SBJME19, I think you’ll find that wasn’t the case in Mid Dorset, where the Lib Dem MP had no expenses trouble and yet saw her majority cut from 5,500 to 270.