Comments on: Bath

By: ChrisInTheNorth

ChrisInTheNorth — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 22:41:33 +0000

I sometimes think this site should have a similar rule to Wikipedia. If you quote another site we should have a link…. I’ve tried to find a YouTube video of the 1992 declaration at Bath.. and it has so far escaped me

Only unpleasant declaration I can recall is Putney in 1997, but that was Tories and Ref party goading each other

For the record I’ve only ever been to 4 counts and I was impleccably behaved at all

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 07:02:20 +0000

Lib Dems tend to be at their very worst when they win elections. There are some LDs around here who have behaved in a very unpleasant fashion at counts, but are quite nice to speak to in any other situation.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 00:22:53 +0000

I had a look at the repeat of the 1992 Election night, on U-tube.
I well remembered the 1992 declaration in Bath being unpleasant,
but it’s even worse than I recalled.
Lib Dem activists chanting and shouting as Chris Patten battled to speak. I have and had some reservations about Chris Patten, but this Lib Dem behaviour was truly vile, even by their standards.

I do think this seat is within the Tories’ grasp, but remains quite a difficult seat.

By: Tristan C

Tristan C — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 14:28:57 +0000

I’d agree with the suggestion that Bath probably lies just outside of the Conservatives grasp at the coming election. Whilst it lies within the bounds of current swing projections from the Lib Dems to the Tories (which Mori measured at 7.4% last year) I would hope that even a slight squeeze of the Labour vote would be enough for Don Foster to hold on.

It will also be interesting to see how UKIP fare here in the light of the expenses scandal and the Lisbon Treaty. They should do quite well across the South in general, I’m just curious how they’ll fare in more urban areas.

By: Frederic Stansfield

Frederic Stansfield — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 13:41:22 +0000

Compared to recent elections, the LibDems look like being on the defensive, if you believe the opinion polls.

I suspect the LibDems will gain a few seats, and lose some – probably rather more – too. There are quite a few Conservative/LibDem contests where the majorities, either way, are small.

Actually, Bath looks comparatively safe for the LibDems. But it is quite plausible it could be a shock loss for them.

By: Tim13

Tim13 — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 10:35:43 +0000

Thanks, Barnaby. But in that case – it was pretty well the only one won – against the trend of 1987. It certainly “came out of the blue” (literally) on that night, which was not a very good night for us non-Tories!

But I suppose you can’t quite link it up with Solihull. Ludlow, of course, was a different case, linked umbilically as it was with a) Rebellion within the Tories, and b) the Richard Taylor election in Kidderminster. Anyway, there is some doubt as to whether Solihull had in fact been targeted by the Lib Dems (perhaps not openly). So – I don’t think the case you make is quite as “open and shut” as you make it sound!

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 09:10:07 +0000

No Tim it was a clear Liberal target seat. It was in 1987, and the Tories briefly regained it in 1992.

By: Tim13

Tim13 — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 08:44:49 +0000

Pete – I think when Southport was gained it was an “out of the blue” gain (first time around). With Ronnie Fearn. Can’t remember the year, but it would be one of 1987 or 1992.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 01:28:06 +0000

Blackburn is the most ridiculous of those predictions but I see the Tories winning Westmorland as not much less unlikely. Eastleigh I expect Huhne to hold on sadly but it is not an implausible Tory gain. I think Morley & Outwood is a more likely Tory gain than Stretford.
Woodspring will not be a LD gain but I can see that seat posing potential problems in the future, at the very least becoming a close shave in the manor of Maidenhad, Haltemprice, Surrey SW, Orpington etc.
I’m interested to know where Joe thinks the next Solihulll will be – he may not want to say publicly but he has my email address. I would say possibilities of ’shock’ LD gains where they start from relatively far behind would be Woking, Chelmsford, St Albans, but none of those would appear to be as below the radar as Solihull did to most people in 2005 (or Ludlow even more so in 2001).
There may not be any Solihull at the next election of course. While the LDs have gained unexpected seats from the Tories at each of the last three elections, this was while the latter were flat-lining at 31% of the national vote.
There were no out of the blue gains by the LDs from Conservatives in 1992 or 1987,nor in 1979 or 1970.

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 00:43:15 +0000

I can see the Tories failing to win Somerton & Frome despite only having a very small majority to overturn.