Bath
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14768 (31.36%)
Labour: 3251 (6.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 26651 (56.6%)
UKIP: 890 (1.89%)
Green: 1120 (2.38%)
Christian: 250 (0.53%)
Independent: 56 (0.12%)
Others: 100 (0.21%)
Majority: 11883 (25.24%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18900 (45.5%)
Conservative: 13322 (32.1%)
Labour: 6127 (14.8%)
Other: 3169 (7.6%)
Majority: 5578 (13.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15463 (33.7%)
Labour: 6773 (14.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 20101 (43.9%)
Green: 2494 (5.4%)
UKIP: 770 (1.7%)
Other: 235 (0.5%)
Majority: 4638 (10.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13478 (29.1%)
Labour: 7269 (15.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 23372 (50.5%)
UKIP: 708 (1.5%)
Green: 1469 (3.2%)
Majority: 9894 (21.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16850 (31.2%)
Labour: 8828 (16.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 26169 (48.5%)
Referendum: 1192 (2.2%)
Other: 950 (1.8%)
Majority: 9319 (17.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Don Foster(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Fabian Richter (Conservative) Chief of staff to David Willetts MP.
Hattie Ajderian (Labour) Runs a computer software business. Bath and North East Somerset councillor 2003-2007. Contested Bath 2005Don Foster(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Eric Lucas (Green) Occupational therapist. Former Oxford councillor.Ernie Warrender (UKIP)Steve Hewett (Christian Party) Robert Craig (All The South Party)Sean Geddis (Independent)A N On (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 83992
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 18.7%
Over 60: 22%
Born outside UK: 9.2%
White: 95.8%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 0.8%
Mixed: 1.4%
Other: 1.2%
Christian: 65.9%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 12.7%
Graduates 16-74: 31.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19.3%
Owner-Occupied: 63.5%
Social Housing: 17.4% (Council: 5.5%, Housing Ass.: 12%)
Privately Rented: 14.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
Which is why the LibDems are odds on.
I would certainly expect a LibDem hold but a Conservative gain is not impossible.
11/10 though isn’t generous.
I think the Lib Dems may just hold onto this seat, but many supporters they gained from the south west voted for them for their anti-war stance, i still predict a huge shift from Labour to Lib Dem in the north east, ive said it many times, North East should be a very interesting place to keep an eye on come genreal elections.
Very interesting development with Reguard to Don Foster and his office expenses
Martin, what development is that then?
The LD majority is similar to John Pattens in 1983, which fell to around 1000 in 1992.
1987 not 1992.
A Conservative gain here is not impossible, and I feel that this is the kind of seat that David Cameron will have particular appeal.
Matt, I have the information on a link butit does not show up.
The Incumbant MP is alleged to have had his office paid for by a donor who has has connections to the Michael Brown defence. The piece i saw said that the incumbant MP may have claimed Taxpayer funds for his office as well as using the donation. Looks very interesting to me! The period is also fairly recent 2006/7 or 8!
I think this seat could well be a Tory gain and it will be interesting if it is as it will indicate a 50-100 seat Tory majority IMO if this seat does fall to the Tories.
I think this along with Ld v Con seats such as Newton Abbot and Richmond Park will be just too much out of the Cons reach whatever the national notional vote shares are
I agree about this seat and Newton Abbt, but wouldn’t agree with Richmond Park – unpopular Lib Dem council plus a smaller majority than the other 2 seats. I know Zac Goldsmith isn’t everyones cup of tea, but I think he is the right candidate for that seat
What brilliant names all of the PPCs for this seat have! What a shame parties don’t loudhailer as much these days.
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I understand that Labour (!) got the most votes in Bath in 1990 Locals. For that to happen, they must have won wards they had not before (or since for that matter). I know that party got close in Bath in 1966, and 1990 was a good year for Labour (outside London) and a correspondingly bad one for the Tories (and notably also for the Liberals), but it still seems bizarre. Does Pete, or someone, have details as to which wards Labour won That year (I assume Twerton, but which others?) Thanks.
I used to have a friend whose mother stood for a Bloomfield Ward, where there was a Labour councillor at the time. Is there still such a ward?
No such ward now. It was last fought in 1995 when Labour won both seats – the only ward where this was the case even then as the LDs had by then made Twerton and Southdown safe (Westmoreland was split 1 Lab 1 LD)
In 1990 Labour won Bloomfield, Kingsmead, Oldfield, Twerton, Walcot and Westmoreland. They won 66% of the vote in Twerton in 1990 but less than half that figure in 1995
The LDs gained Twerton in 1991 I think, from Labour,
so it was clearly swinging against the national but not the local trend.
I think they (Labour) had about 73% of the vote in 1987.
RR, I was surprised to hear that too. But strange things happen in local elections. In 1992 I think I’m right in saying that the Conservatives won the most votes in Stoke-on-Trent.
Even more surprisingly Labour won the most votes in Torbay in 1990
Wasn’t that at the height if the anti-poll tax campaign, which was being seen as led by Labour in some areas
Now that I really am astonished by, Pete.
The 1990 elections would, in addition to taking place in the context of the furore surrounding the poll tax, also have happened at a time when the Liberal Democrats had yet to really establish themselves as a viable third party following the Lib/SDP merger.
It was only in October 1989 that they officially became the Lib Dems rather than the SLD; they were polling in single figures, sometimes as low as 5% at around this time. I would have thought that this would provide the other part of the explanation for the strong Labour performances in surprising areas at that time.
Happy days Kieran.
They hit 4% on at least one occasion,
and were completely routed in the European elections.
Hopefully we’ll get a period like that again.
I remember local election night of 1990 well and watching on the then Thames TV it was inevitably very London-centric (rightly so) and as has often been observed the results in London differed markedly from those outside (even immediately outside eg. Herts). Wandsworth and Westminster were the most trumpeted but were far from being the only examples of the Conservatives performing well in London (there were particulalry good results in Brent and Ealing).
There were also some good LD performances in boroughs as disparate as Sutton and Tower Hamlets (though in many others where they did not have some entrecnhed strength they did badly). What became clear was that partly perhaps because these were unitary councils the elections in many London boroughs were actually about electing the party that people felt would be best at running local services, which is as things should be. Outside of London I get the impression it was much more a case of voting against the government.
As all the councils outside London were electing by thirds, there were not the huge turnover of seats that there could have been if councils were all up. Bradford went (I think) from Conservative to Labour control but that was not a particularly sensational headline (after all the Conservatives dont control Bradford even now), otherwise there was not much news on the night to suggest how terrible the results outside London were for the Conservatives.
It did become apparent either on the firday or saturday when I think the Daily Mail ran with this story of various ‘safe’ Tory seats which would have gone Labour on the basis of local election votes cast. I seem to remember Bristol West (which itself seemed quite shocking at the time) was one and certainly Bath and Torbay were others.
I also followed results in the West Midlands closely and when I acquired the results from there it again became apparent how truly awful the Conservative performance was outside London and how good for Labour. They were also appallingly bad for the LDs as Kieron says – there were wards in Three Rivers for example which elected Labour councillors then which have been safely LD since 1991 and were generally Liberal before 1990. Again London was a completely different matter
I suspected that post might elicit a response of that kind from you Joe!
I don’t think any of the major parties is going to sink to those kind of depths any time soon. Labour are going to have the biggest set of problems over the next few years, caught a kind of spiral of decline whereby the more unpopular they are, the more dependent they are on union finance and the greater the chance of the unions being able to ensure the adoption of unpopular leftish policies.
As some of you will now, I am enquiring for a number of constituencies as to whether the Tories think it worthwhile putting up their NHS poster. Do the Tories think this seat is marginal enough to put up billboard posters. or do they seem to regard a 578 LibDem majority as too difficult a challenge?
Of course I realise that the Conservatives may think it worthwhile putting up a poster in Bath because motorists from nearby marginals, e.g. in Bristol, might see it. But that might be indicated by the location or locations they choose.
Incidentally, I asked a similar question about St. Austell and Newquay recently, but have not got any reports of sightings in response yet.
I haven’t seen any of these posters yet.
I was in Bath last summer and did a sketch of the Abbey.
I’d say this seat is just winnable for the Conservatives – hope nobody lumps me with Gloy Plopwell.
I remember the 1990 local elections clearly, and can concur with a lot of what Pete says.
In London fears of high Poll Tax bills held Labour back, and they largely caught up in 1994 (although not as much as in 1997).
I agree that where the choice was clearer, either in an all out election (fewer if any unitaries outside the Met areas), it focused attention on the running of the council, away from national government somewhat, and no doubt in London the contrast between the highest and lowest taxes.
I did hope at the time that the worst had passed for the PM, but alas it wasn’t so.
Somebody thinks they know results already –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wta_4hxWwiE&feature=related
That link above is a bit of fun, and one or two inaccuracies.
I’m not sure I agree with all the predictions.
Westmorland & L, Stretford, perhaps Eastleigh,
certainly not Salford & Eccles or Woodspring.
Woodspring and Salford & Eccles are nonsense.
I would love to see the Tories get Eastleigh and Westmoreland back, but Taunton is a more likely Tory gain.
I would be surprised if Respect even came second in Bethnal Green & Bow, particuarly with George Galloway departing to pastures new.
I agree – I would guess they retain a signficant vote, but also fall away quite heavily.
Taunton is quite a good chance of a Tory gain.
I’m afraid I have to agree with the film that Morley and Outwood is probably Balls holding on.
Yes Woodspring – which of course won’t be called Woodspring any more – is ludicrous. CON HOLD there. Odd choice of personalities – Don Foster is pretty low profile nationally these days, and of course a number of them e.g.Ruth Kelly & Bev Hughes are retiring. They also haven’t noticed that Gorgeous George is not standing in the same seat. Good fun though in a minor way.`
And also I really don’t think Jack Straw is at all likely to lose Blackburn to respect…….
Peter I agree with you completely. I have Eastleigh & Westmoreland down as Lib Dem holds, but Taunton as CON GAIN despite the boundary change which helps the LDs there.
I do have one or two ideas of where the next Solihull (escape from the count with a blanket over head) is likely to be, but not Woodspring.
It could have been John Maples.
I can see the Tories failing to win Somerton & Frome despite only having a very small majority to overturn.
Blackburn is the most ridiculous of those predictions but I see the Tories winning Westmorland as not much less unlikely. Eastleigh I expect Huhne to hold on sadly but it is not an implausible Tory gain. I think Morley & Outwood is a more likely Tory gain than Stretford.
Woodspring will not be a LD gain but I can see that seat posing potential problems in the future, at the very least becoming a close shave in the manor of Maidenhad, Haltemprice, Surrey SW, Orpington etc.
I’m interested to know where Joe thinks the next Solihulll will be – he may not want to say publicly but he has my email address. I would say possibilities of ‘shock’ LD gains where they start from relatively far behind would be Woking, Chelmsford, St Albans, but none of those would appear to be as below the radar as Solihull did to most people in 2005 (or Ludlow even more so in 2001).
There may not be any Solihull at the next election of course. While the LDs have gained unexpected seats from the Tories at each of the last three elections, this was while the latter were flat-lining at 31% of the national vote.
There were no out of the blue gains by the LDs from Conservatives in 1992 or 1987,nor in 1979 or 1970.
Pete – I think when Southport was gained it was an “out of the blue” gain (first time around). With Ronnie Fearn. Can’t remember the year, but it would be one of 1987 or 1992.
No Tim it was a clear Liberal target seat. It was in 1987, and the Tories briefly regained it in 1992.
Thanks, Barnaby. But in that case – it was pretty well the only one won – against the trend of 1987. It certainly “came out of the blue” (literally) on that night, which was not a very good night for us non-Tories!
But I suppose you can’t quite link it up with Solihull. Ludlow, of course, was a different case, linked umbilically as it was with a) Rebellion within the Tories, and b) the Richard Taylor election in Kidderminster. Anyway, there is some doubt as to whether Solihull had in fact been targeted by the Lib Dems (perhaps not openly). So – I don’t think the case you make is quite as “open and shut” as you make it sound!
Compared to recent elections, the LibDems look like being on the defensive, if you believe the opinion polls.
I suspect the LibDems will gain a few seats, and lose some – probably rather more – too. There are quite a few Conservative/LibDem contests where the majorities, either way, are small.
Actually, Bath looks comparatively safe for the LibDems. But it is quite plausible it could be a shock loss for them.
I’d agree with the suggestion that Bath probably lies just outside of the Conservatives grasp at the coming election. Whilst it lies within the bounds of current swing projections from the Lib Dems to the Tories (which Mori measured at 7.4% last year) I would hope that even a slight squeeze of the Labour vote would be enough for Don Foster to hold on.
It will also be interesting to see how UKIP fare here in the light of the expenses scandal and the Lisbon Treaty. They should do quite well across the South in general, I’m just curious how they’ll fare in more urban areas.
I had a look at the repeat of the 1992 Election night, on U-tube.
I well remembered the 1992 declaration in Bath being unpleasant,
but it’s even worse than I recalled.
Lib Dem activists chanting and shouting as Chris Patten battled to speak. I have and had some reservations about Chris Patten, but this Lib Dem behaviour was truly vile, even by their standards.
I do think this seat is within the Tories’ grasp, but remains quite a difficult seat.
Lib Dems tend to be at their very worst when they win elections. There are some LDs around here who have behaved in a very unpleasant fashion at counts, but are quite nice to speak to in any other situation.
I sometimes think this site should have a similar rule to Wikipedia. If you quote another site we should have a link…. I’ve tried to find a YouTube video of the 1992 declaration at Bath.. and it has so far escaped me
Only unpleasant declaration I can recall is Putney in 1997, but that was Tories and Ref party goading each other
For the record I’ve only ever been to 4 counts and I was impleccably behaved at all
Michael Peter-Bragg standing her for Jury Team
Equivalent response to Matt as in Torbay: what are Michael Peter-Bragg’s policies?
Here are his views on borders and migration;
” I have varied views, some radical and others more mundane. However my views are always based on the interests of the people and on the side of those who are pro-active in society and not destructive to the nation as a whole”
The English Democrats and Jury Team are supposedly in their little Alliance for Democracy pact, yet they both now have a candidate for Bath
It’s funny – I’m in favour of democracy, yet curiously I don’t feel the need to support either party.
LD Hold= 1,500 maj