Bath
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14768 (31.36%)
Labour: 3251 (6.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 26651 (56.6%)
UKIP: 890 (1.89%)
Green: 1120 (2.38%)
Christian: 250 (0.53%)
Independent: 56 (0.12%)
Others: 100 (0.21%)
Majority: 11883 (25.24%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18900 (45.5%)
Conservative: 13322 (32.1%)
Labour: 6127 (14.8%)
Other: 3169 (7.6%)
Majority: 5578 (13.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15463 (33.7%)
Labour: 6773 (14.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 20101 (43.9%)
Green: 2494 (5.4%)
UKIP: 770 (1.7%)
Other: 235 (0.5%)
Majority: 4638 (10.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13478 (29.1%)
Labour: 7269 (15.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 23372 (50.5%)
UKIP: 708 (1.5%)
Green: 1469 (3.2%)
Majority: 9894 (21.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16850 (31.2%)
Labour: 8828 (16.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 26169 (48.5%)
Referendum: 1192 (2.2%)
Other: 950 (1.8%)
Majority: 9319 (17.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Don Foster(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Fabian Richter (Conservative) Chief of staff to David Willetts MP.
Hattie Ajderian (Labour) Runs a computer software business. Bath and North East Somerset councillor 2003-2007. Contested Bath 2005Don Foster(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Eric Lucas (Green) Occupational therapist. Former Oxford councillor.Ernie Warrender (UKIP)Steve Hewett (Christian Party) Robert Craig (All The South Party)Sean Geddis (Independent)A N On (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 83992
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 18.7%
Over 60: 22%
Born outside UK: 9.2%
White: 95.8%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 0.8%
Mixed: 1.4%
Other: 1.2%
Christian: 65.9%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 12.7%
Graduates 16-74: 31.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19.3%
Owner-Occupied: 63.5%
Social Housing: 17.4% (Council: 5.5%, Housing Ass.: 12%)
Privately Rented: 14.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
CON 700
LD hold maj 4000
I think Votedave is much nearer the mark than BTS on this seat.
Hi
May I ask that My portrait and link be published as Bath is a target UKIP seat
Ernie Warrender
UKIP ppc BAth
Lib Dem hold, majority 6,000 – much the same or slightly increased on 2005.
I simply can’t see any particular reason for the vote to change much in Bath.
The Tories wil do their best to get their vote out of course, but I don’t think they’re doing well enough or that this is high enough up on their target list to really push for. The Tories aren’t inspiring people much nationally, and any increase in support they do manage is always subject to UKIP hoovering a few of their votes up.
The Lib Dems are doing well post-debate but if you’ve got a seat they’ve already actually won, I can’t see them doing all that much better this time.
Labour aren’t going to bother with the seat and any of their disaffected voters aren’t going to give their votes to the Tories, so they’ll stay at home or go Lib Dem, which might give the Lib Dems a slight boost.
Lib Dem Hold
Maj 4900
LD maj 3,000
I’m sure Don will hold here but his biggest fear is too many of his supporters staying home presuming he is safe when he is facing an active and well funded Tory opposition.
Bath is plastered in vote Don posters at the moment and Labour are quietly campaigning between the LIB/CON firefight….
LD HOLD
Sadly, Gloy Plopwell was talking some sense here,
the majority went up to about 11-12,000
if not 15,000.
Bath is better at rugby union than politics. (in my view).
“Labour are quietly campaigning between the LIB/CON firefight….”
Were they campaigning for Don Foster?
Does any one know why the councillor for radstock has been suspended ?
It was a breach of the Code of Conduct matter regarding some sort of disturbance at a town council meeting early last year. Sounds like the sort of thing that might be rather overblown, although I don’t know the details.
Even if the Lib-dem vote does collapse at the next election you would have to fancy this seat to stay yellow. A 25% majority will be too hard to overturn.
JOE JAMES B
Somebody thinks they know results already –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wta_4hxWwiE&feature=related
See this link again
A lot of the predictions turned out to be wrong – on all sides.
Most people expected a reduction in the LD majority here rather than for it to increase to its highest level yet.
Very C disappointing result – considering what was achieved in other seats.
I’d have thought the Conservatives were in with a chance last time.
They need to think about how to get it next time.
I actually think the LD vote could hold up in places like Bath and Bristol unlike the rest of the country.
The Labour vote has clearly contributed around 10 points to the LD vote, at least.
Given that this MP is also clearly very hostile to the Conservatives (despite the white flag behaviour of people like Ed Vaizey and Danny Finklestein who grovels all the time to Ollie Grinder), then I don’t see why Conservative supporters should be too relaxed about him either.
But I conceed it’s a poor result and a big majority.
The Libdems did better in all their seats where they had an incumbent, except where the incumbent had had unfavourable publicity/expenses trouble.
SBJME19, I think you’ll find that wasn’t the case in Mid Dorset, where the Lib Dem MP had no expenses trouble and yet saw her majority cut from 5,500 to 270.
Only just seen this from before the general election –
“May I ask that My portrait and link be published as Bath is a target UKIP seat”
I can think of few seats where I would expect UKIP to do worse than this constituency!
It’s true that this is one of UKIPs worst prospects in the south-west region but they probably still have more support here than in a lot of inner London constituencies for example.
@AndyJS
I have responded to you on the Chelsea & Fulham thread. Cheers.
The local authority bucked the national trend and saw the Lib Dems make gains here. The Conservatives were just one seat away from taking control, but instead lost three and are now level pegging with the Lib Dems.
Certainly a surprising result in the General election, not in the sense of the actual winner, but the marginality of Don Foster’s victory. It was expected that the Cameron brand of moderate, compassionate conservatism would be best received in areas like this, but failed.
Certainly Don Foster’s incumbancy will have helped the Lib Dems, and if he retires this could go the same way as Harrogate and Knaresborough with a strong Conservative campaign.
Very unlikely. Unlike Harrogate, Bath is increasingly important as a university town, with a growing population of academics, staff and students who are mostly hostile to voting Conservative.
This seat will become more like Cambridge, Hallam and Leeds NW – former Conservative strongholds which will never go back due to the prominence of the university and public sector employment.
It is important to remember that the council area also covers the North East Somerset constituency which is obviously much stronger for the Tories than Bath itself.
Yes, Bath and Harrogate aren’t really comparable in terms of demographics. Comparing Bath with Cheltenham would be a fairer one to make as like Bath, Cheltenham has trended away from the Tories over the past 20 years and despite the smaller majority still won’t be easy for them to gain.
I don’t know why the C result here was so poor last time.
Don Foster strikes me as not very charismatic and any personal vote should have already been built up.
The Labour vote has got even more behind him, but it’s not the full story, as the Tory vote has basically flatlined despite a mildly encouraging result in 2005.
Is the University and related population actually increasing? It would suggest that Labour should do better rather than the LDs in current circumstances.
There does appear to have been an increase in the number of people studying at the University. It is highly regarded and usually appears in the top 10 or just outside of it on the various university rankings. The city’s 2nd university, Bath Spa, has also seen a rise in both students and reputation in recent years so it does seem that the academic and student populations are having an influence on the election results in the constituency.
I agree with Joe James B, but wish to add that the old situation existing in the 1960s and early 1970s could indeed return here if the Lib Dems suffer a terrible drubbing at the next election. The centre-left vote could once again be split, and the Boundary Commission may encompass more of the surrounding rural areas too. This could become a Conservative Lib Dem marginal again.
Anyone think this might be possible in 2015, based on Electoral Calculus figures?
Foster (Lib Dem)- 19, 893 (42.24%)
Tory- 12, 637 (26.83%)
Lab- 9, 236 (19.61%)
Others- 5, 320 (11.2%)
Reduced majority for Foster of 7, 256 (15.41%).
This is a very safe LD seat and the tories only polled 26% or something at a local level in May 2011.
Can’t see a potential retirement of Don Foster making too much difference and can see the vote shares here reverting to something akin to 2005.
The Lib Dem share of 42% looks plausible.
I think the Tories should be able to stay around 30%, and Labour are likely to be more like 15-16% than 19%.
Nonetheless, a relatively comfortable LD hold is I think assured here.
The Green Party may get quite a high vote here next time- Hence why Electoral Calculus has the ‘Others’ quite high- Something like 4-5%, perhaps. If the UKIP vote share goes up a bit (I.e. 304%) the 11.2% for the ‘Others’ might make sense. Otherwise, it seems unlikely. Does the forecast majority I have predicted using Calculus carry any weight or is it still too early to tell?
Not 304%. 3-4%.