Bath
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18900 (45.5%)
Conservative: 13322 (32.1%)
Labour: 6127 (14.8%)
Other: 3169 (7.6%)
Majority: 5578 (13.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15463 (33.7%)
Labour: 6773 (14.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 20101 (43.9%)
Green: 2494 (5.4%)
UKIP: 770 (1.7%)
Other: 235 (0.5%)
Majority: 4638 (10.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13478 (29.1%)
Labour: 7269 (15.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 23372 (50.5%)
UKIP: 708 (1.5%)
Green: 1469 (3.2%)
Majority: 9894 (21.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16850 (31.2%)
Labour: 8828 (16.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 26169 (48.5%)
Referendum: 1192 (2.2%)
Other: 950 (1.8%)
Majority: 9319 (17.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Don Foster(Lib Dem) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Fabian Richter (Conservative) Chief of staff to David Willetts MP.
Hattie Ajderian (Labour) Runs a computer software business. Bath and North East Somerset councillor 2003-2007. Contested Bath 2005
Eric Lucas (Green) Occupational therapist. Former Oxford councillor.
Sara Box (English Democrat) Contested South West in 2009 European election.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 83992
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 18.7%
Over 60: 22%
Born outside UK: 9.2%
White: 95.8%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 0.8%
Mixed: 1.4%
Other: 1.2%
Christian: 65.9%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 12.7%
Graduates 16-74: 31.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19.3%
Owner-Occupied: 63.5%
Social Housing: 17.4% (Council: 5.5%, Housing Ass.: 12%)
Privately Rented: 14.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
Blackburn is the most ridiculous of those predictions but I see the Tories winning Westmorland as not much less unlikely. Eastleigh I expect Huhne to hold on sadly but it is not an implausible Tory gain. I think Morley & Outwood is a more likely Tory gain than Stretford.
Woodspring will not be a LD gain but I can see that seat posing potential problems in the future, at the very least becoming a close shave in the manor of Maidenhad, Haltemprice, Surrey SW, Orpington etc.
I’m interested to know where Joe thinks the next Solihulll will be – he may not want to say publicly but he has my email address. I would say possibilities of ’shock’ LD gains where they start from relatively far behind would be Woking, Chelmsford, St Albans, but none of those would appear to be as below the radar as Solihull did to most people in 2005 (or Ludlow even more so in 2001).
There may not be any Solihull at the next election of course. While the LDs have gained unexpected seats from the Tories at each of the last three elections, this was while the latter were flat-lining at 31% of the national vote.
There were no out of the blue gains by the LDs from Conservatives in 1992 or 1987,nor in 1979 or 1970.
Pete – I think when Southport was gained it was an “out of the blue” gain (first time around). With Ronnie Fearn. Can’t remember the year, but it would be one of 1987 or 1992.
No Tim it was a clear Liberal target seat. It was in 1987, and the Tories briefly regained it in 1992.
Thanks, Barnaby. But in that case – it was pretty well the only one won – against the trend of 1987. It certainly “came out of the blue” (literally) on that night, which was not a very good night for us non-Tories!
But I suppose you can’t quite link it up with Solihull. Ludlow, of course, was a different case, linked umbilically as it was with a) Rebellion within the Tories, and b) the Richard Taylor election in Kidderminster. Anyway, there is some doubt as to whether Solihull had in fact been targeted by the Lib Dems (perhaps not openly). So – I don’t think the case you make is quite as “open and shut” as you make it sound!
Compared to recent elections, the LibDems look like being on the defensive, if you believe the opinion polls.
I suspect the LibDems will gain a few seats, and lose some – probably rather more – too. There are quite a few Conservative/LibDem contests where the majorities, either way, are small.
Actually, Bath looks comparatively safe for the LibDems. But it is quite plausible it could be a shock loss for them.
I’d agree with the suggestion that Bath probably lies just outside of the Conservatives grasp at the coming election. Whilst it lies within the bounds of current swing projections from the Lib Dems to the Tories (which Mori measured at 7.4% last year) I would hope that even a slight squeeze of the Labour vote would be enough for Don Foster to hold on.
It will also be interesting to see how UKIP fare here in the light of the expenses scandal and the Lisbon Treaty. They should do quite well across the South in general, I’m just curious how they’ll fare in more urban areas.