Bath
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14768 (31.36%)
Labour: 3251 (6.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 26651 (56.6%)
UKIP: 890 (1.89%)
Green: 1120 (2.38%)
Christian: 250 (0.53%)
Independent: 56 (0.12%)
Others: 100 (0.21%)
Majority: 11883 (25.24%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18900 (45.5%)
Conservative: 13322 (32.1%)
Labour: 6127 (14.8%)
Other: 3169 (7.6%)
Majority: 5578 (13.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15463 (33.7%)
Labour: 6773 (14.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 20101 (43.9%)
Green: 2494 (5.4%)
UKIP: 770 (1.7%)
Other: 235 (0.5%)
Majority: 4638 (10.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13478 (29.1%)
Labour: 7269 (15.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 23372 (50.5%)
UKIP: 708 (1.5%)
Green: 1469 (3.2%)
Majority: 9894 (21.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16850 (31.2%)
Labour: 8828 (16.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 26169 (48.5%)
Referendum: 1192 (2.2%)
Other: 950 (1.8%)
Majority: 9319 (17.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Don Foster(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Fabian Richter (Conservative) Chief of staff to David Willetts MP.
Hattie Ajderian (Labour) Runs a computer software business. Bath and North East Somerset councillor 2003-2007. Contested Bath 2005Don Foster(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Eric Lucas (Green) Occupational therapist. Former Oxford councillor.Ernie Warrender (UKIP)Steve Hewett (Christian Party) Robert Craig (All The South Party)Sean Geddis (Independent)A N On (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 83992
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 18.7%
Over 60: 22%
Born outside UK: 9.2%
White: 95.8%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 0.8%
Mixed: 1.4%
Other: 1.2%
Christian: 65.9%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 12.7%
Graduates 16-74: 31.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 19.3%
Owner-Occupied: 63.5%
Social Housing: 17.4% (Council: 5.5%, Housing Ass.: 12%)
Privately Rented: 14.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
CON 700
LD hold maj 4000
I think Votedave is much nearer the mark than BTS on this seat.
Hi
May I ask that My portrait and link be published as Bath is a target UKIP seat
Ernie Warrender
UKIP ppc BAth
Lib Dem hold, majority 6,000 – much the same or slightly increased on 2005.
I simply can’t see any particular reason for the vote to change much in Bath.
The Tories wil do their best to get their vote out of course, but I don’t think they’re doing well enough or that this is high enough up on their target list to really push for. The Tories aren’t inspiring people much nationally, and any increase in support they do manage is always subject to UKIP hoovering a few of their votes up.
The Lib Dems are doing well post-debate but if you’ve got a seat they’ve already actually won, I can’t see them doing all that much better this time.
Labour aren’t going to bother with the seat and any of their disaffected voters aren’t going to give their votes to the Tories, so they’ll stay at home or go Lib Dem, which might give the Lib Dems a slight boost.
Lib Dem Hold
Maj 4900
LD maj 3,000
I’m sure Don will hold here but his biggest fear is too many of his supporters staying home presuming he is safe when he is facing an active and well funded Tory opposition.
Bath is plastered in vote Don posters at the moment and Labour are quietly campaigning between the LIB/CON firefight….
LD HOLD
Sadly, Gloy Plopwell was talking some sense here,
the majority went up to about 11-12,000
if not 15,000.
Bath is better at rugby union than politics. (in my view).
“Labour are quietly campaigning between the LIB/CON firefight….”
Were they campaigning for Don Foster?
Does any one know why the councillor for radstock has been suspended ?
It was a breach of the Code of Conduct matter regarding some sort of disturbance at a town council meeting early last year. Sounds like the sort of thing that might be rather overblown, although I don’t know the details.
Even if the Lib-dem vote does collapse at the next election you would have to fancy this seat to stay yellow. A 25% majority will be too hard to overturn.