Bassetlaw
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16803 (33.89%)
Labour: 25018 (50.46%)
Liberal Democrat: 5570 (11.24%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.59%)
Independent: 407 (0.82%)
Majority: 8215 (16.57%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 25057 (51%)
Conservative: 16932 (34.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6828 (13.9%)
Other: 304 (0.6%)
Majority: 8126 (16.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12010 (29.8%)
Labour: 22847 (56.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5485 (13.6%)
Majority: 10837 (26.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11758 (30.2%)
Labour: 21506 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4942 (12.7%)
Other: 689 (1.8%)
Majority: 9748 (25.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11838 (24.7%)
Labour: 29298 (61.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4950 (10.3%)
Referendum: 1838 (3.8%)
Majority: 17460 (36.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: John Mann(Labour) Born 1960, Leeds. Educated at Bradford Grammar School and Manchester University. Former trade union officer. Former Lambeth councillor. MP for Bassetlaw since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
Keith Girling (Conservative) Born 1959, Nottingham. Educated at Manvers Pierrepont Comprehensive. Former non-commissioned officer in the Grenadier Guards. Nottinghamshire county councillor.John Mann(Labour) Born 1960, Leeds. Educated at Bradford Grammar School and Manchester University. Former trade union officer. Former Lambeth councillor. MP for Bassetlaw since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
David Dobbie (Liberal Democrat) Supply teacher. Contested Bassetlaw 2005.
Andrea Hamilton (UKIP) Grahame Whitehurst (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 98891
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 2.5%
White: 98.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 81.7%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 13.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.4%
Owner-Occupied: 70.7%
Social Housing: 20.3% (Council: 18.3%, Housing Ass.: 1.9%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
Tories will waste their energy on this seat as they control the Council and will think they can win this seat.
Easy Labour hold.
Labour will win next time but with a much smaller majority than previously. This is because of the following reasons:
1) the Eastern half of the seat is very rural and heavily Tory (so there is a solid Tory minority that turns out better than the Labour inclined western mining half)
2) Demographic change in traditional Labour voting Worksop and Carlton favours the Tories (note the recent local election results).
3) Boundary changes. Warsop comes out and East Retford comes in. Warsop contributed at least 3000 votes to the Labour majority last time but East Retford splits its votes evenly between the Tories and Labour. Because independents stood in the County and local elections the above notional result does not take into account Labour’s huge lead of the Tories in Warsop at the General Election.
4) The improved standing of the Conservative Party nationally and locally – winning control of the council for the first time ever was a sign of the changing times.
Hmmm. Again, maybe more complex then it appears prior to Jon Mann appearing in 2001, this seat had been held by Labour for 66 years. Seems a long time. But that 66 years was only two MPs, Fred Bellenger and Joe Ashton. Both built up a huge personal vote. Ashton was a good speaker and reminded people why they voted Labour there and kept the seat Labour, good times and bad. Otherwise this seat could well have gone blue in the 80’s as sherwood did and Mansfield almost did.
The future may not be certain..
Labour actually did slightly better in 2005. I wouldn’t put it more than a Tory long shot.
It’s not even a long shot. Bassetlaw is a safe Labour seat.
One could argue that it’s ’safeness’ has in part been due to past Labour MPs building up a good constituency following. as I say it is onlly on its third MP since 1935. We have very little experience of seeing this seat without a long time representative with a heavy personal vote.
The Labour majority was only 3,000 in 1983, so there is definitely the potential for a good Tory challenge here, although a victory is rather unlikely for the next couple of elections, at least.
I don’t know, I feel a little more confident about Bassetlaw than any of the other long-shot seats. Conservatives may not actually win next time but I am certainly looking at two elections time as a strong possibility.
I think it might be closer than you think…
One to watch on the night, certainly.
I havent got around to working out ward results in Nottinghamshire yet but I wouldnt be surprised to find that Bassetlaw on these boundaries would actually have voted Tory in 1983, given that Warsop would have given Labour a majority then while Retford and it’s environs would have given the Tories a big numerical lead. Although like other seats which did vote Tory then like Sherwood, the Tories are a long way back again I can see this kind of area swinging and Labour would be foolish not to treat it as marginal
Bassetlaw ward aggregates are :-
Con 12951 Lab 12193 LibDem 331 Others 817 . I think this indicates a Labour hold in a GE .
I dont know if it indicates that. It certainly indicates that the Conservatives are capable of amassing a plurality (and almost a majority) of votes within these boundaries. I’m sure a Labour hold is the likeliest result at the next election but obviously there will be a higher LD vote then – the question is whether those voters, who were presumably denied a LD candidate in a number of wards in May voted more for Labour or Tory candidates then. Were all wards up for election this year? we would need to know a bit more about this before we can say what if anything is indicated by those results
Pete , not all wards were up this year but results are taken from last time wards were contested . Last year’s aggregates had Conservatives up by 1,800 .
My belief is that local elections nearly always understate Labour because of differential lower turnout and Conservatives would need to be around 4,000 ahead to have a chance of winning on a GE turnout .
I’m unable to open the pdf file of election results from Bassetlaw for some reason so I have to take your word for it re: turnouts.
As for those wards being fought I assume they are the same as were fought in 2003. In that case the wards which didnt vote include Beckingham (67.5% Tory when last fought in 2004), Clayworth (81.5%), Sutton (75.1%). Also Langold( 69.2% Labour in 2006 but with far fewer electors than the Tory wards comnbined), and East Retford South and West which about balance each other out(couple of hundred Labour lead in south – same for the Tories in west). This would suggest that the Tories would have had a larger lead if all wards had been contested – perhaps as much as a couple of thousand more
Pete , I will have included the results for 2004 for the wards last fought in 2004 . There may be a small swing from Lab to Con from 2004 to 2007 but from memory it was negligible ( like you the Bassetlaw website pdf’s are not loading ) but at most it would have made a difference of no more than 500 votes .
Apologies I hadn’t understood from your previous post that you had included the 2004 results.
I note that Labour must have won Worsop N and Worksop NE this year, which both elected Conservatives in 2006. Perhaps this is a consequence of the Tories now controlling the council.
Still I think Labour will need to watch their back in this seat. It cant be taken for granted if and when the Conservatives manage to establish a sizeable lead nationally.
The Tories failed completely here in 2005 to make any impact, just as in Don Valley to its north.
This is a polarised seat in some ways, but Labour’s majority in the west looks sufficient to hold it at the next election with reasonable comfort.
I doubt that Bassetlaw will fall to the Conservatives. It gives most indications of remaining a Labour seat and the Conservative majority at Council level was largely a protest vote against Labour at a national level and apathy than an endorsement of any Conservative policy or personality.
The current MP, John Mann, remains a popular figure on the whole and has a high-profile reputation and is unlikely to be successfully challenged by the Conservatives. Indeed, in 2005, John Mann actually increased his majority when (if my memory is correct) all other Labour MP’s saw a dip in their majorities.
In the 2007 local elections, the Conservatives lost Worksop North-East to Labour, but won Ranskill from the Liberal Democrats.
Although it was put to the previous MP, Joe Ashton, that Bassetlaw was of the right mix to be a Liberal seat, I suspect this is unlikely.
At a general election, it is likely Bassetlaw will remain Labour, favoured by a likely higher turn-out and greater numbers that live in Worksop and the villages which tend to favour Labour and counterbalance the rural vote. An interesting dynamic will be the inclusion of Retford(from Newark Constituency) at the next election due to boundary changes (with the loss of Warsop to Mansfield Constituency) which is more of a ‘county town’ with higher Conservative support.
Perhaps Retford should get mentioned in the title. Although technically in the Midlands, it is quite far north. It doesn’t look very attractive from the train, but some places don’t.
“it was put to the previous MP, Joe Ashton, that Bassetlaw was of the right mix to be a Liberal seat”
Frankly I cant think of a seat less likely to be LIberal. It has almost none of the usual groups who contribute to LD support and it is unlike any other seat held by the party currently or recently with the exception of Chesterfield
Agreed Pete, in fact there are very few LD candidates at local level here.
I’m not sure it’s that similar to Chesterfield though except geographically.
Chesterfield is more of an urban constituency whereas Bassetlaw is more small towns, pit villages and affluent rural/commuter areas along it’s motorways.
Derbyshire NE, and Rother and Don Valleys are better matches for Bassetlaw. The LDs struggle in those too.
That is correct – I had a look at the 2007 local elections and most of the wards are Lab-Con fights only, with 2 or 3 Independents and LDs only.
Retford is more Conservative than I would have expected, but May 2007 was a good year for them, and it’s probably closer when turnout is well above about 36%.
In yesterday’s “News Of The World” exclusive opinion poll this Constituency is listed as a Tory gain along with the likes of Carlisle,Copeland and Workington.If this happens in a General Election I will eat my hat!
‘In yesterday’s “News Of The World” exclusive opinion poll this Constituency is listed as a Tory gain along with the likes of Carlisle,Copeland and Workington.If this happens in a General Election I will eat my hat!’
Given that none of these four seats were Tory between the Labour nadir years of 1983-1992, I find it hard to believe that the Tories will win any of them
I would have thought these to be the type of seats where the Cameron effect would have very little impact
Quite, but you would have said the same about any suggestion that Labour would gain Hove, Harrow West, Enfield Southgate etc in 1997. I dont think we are heading for a 1997 and i doubt those seats will fall next time but on current polls they would and if there is a big Conservative majority they could – this seat in particular bearing in mind the favourable boundary chnges as well
It’s not just favourable boundary changes but long term demographic change. We’re always happy to discuss where demographic change is running against the Conservatives (e.g. in parts of London) but forget that the opposite exists. The nature of this part of North Nottinghamshire is changing with new developments and some gentrification incrwasing the Conservative-inclined part of the population.
1979 wasn’t a landslide for the Conservatives but that year saw Shirley Williams ‘unassailable’ majority in Hertford & Stevenage swept away. I’m not saying the Conservatives will necessarily win here but it’s not as far fetched as some might think.
Absolutely. I have made similar observations on Sherwood I think and several other seats of the type and it isnt only demographic change but changes in the patterns of the relationship between ‘class’ and voting behaviour, mirroring the situation in the United States
‘Quite, but you would have said the same about any suggestion that Labour would gain Hove, Harrow West, Enfield Southgate etc in 1997.’
Indeed I would but from the end of 92 to the election in 97, Labour were consistently at the very least 10% above what the Conservative opposition find themselves with now
Besides, I’m firmly of the view that the current polls are almost exclusuively down to Labour’s mistakes as opposed to anything the Tories have said or done – we don’t even yet know what most of their policies for the next election are going to be
‘We’re always happy to discuss where demographic change is running against the Conservatives (e.g. in parts of London) but forget that the opposite exists.’
Considering about 95% of the posters on this site are Tories, that’s certainly not true
There have been many discussions about how demographic changes in a whole variety of seats have benefited either party – not least the swings of the last election, particularly in working class seats where the Tories seem increasingly popular
As Pete says, it very much mirrors the situation in the US
This seat though has virtually no Tory history and with being based on towns like Worksop it still strikes me as unlikely in the extreme that this would go Tory – unless Labour continue their latest suicidal approach to politics or if the turn out is exeptionally low – which is rarely the case when there’s an unpopular government
The boundary changes are very favourable to the Conservatives here but I still think Labour will hold on very comfortably. After the swing to Labour in 2005 a Conservative gain next time would be nothing short of sensational.
Pete
Or as I said last year (I think it was on the Rother Valley thread) the equivalent of West Virginia. Skilled white working class plus private sector middle class have great potential for the Conservatives.
Do you have the constituency result from the local elections from the last two years here? As not all the wards have elections each year it’s complicated to work out.
I would put the chances of a Conservative gain here as much higher than in Sheffield Hallam (something that would have seemed inconceivable even in 1992). Bassetlaw might well be moving demographically Conservative at a rate of 1% a year.
As you say it’s complicated. In each of the last two years the Conservatives were just ahead in Bassetlaw district – 46.8%/45.9% in 2007 46.4%/46.3% in 2006. This seat is coterminous with Bassetlaw district now except that it excludes three rural Tory wards. One of those wards is included in the 2007 figures and another is included in 2006 so Labour were probably just ahead in both years within the wards that did vote those years and are within this constituency. But there are other rural Tory wards that voted only in one year or the other and another three which didnt vote in either year (which will be up this week). All the wards in Worksop on the other hand vote every year so that town carries a disproportionatre weight within the overall figures. The best guess then is that the Tories have been narrowly ahead within this seat in recent local elections but obviously by a smaller margin then their national lead. There is little point adding 2004 figures into the mix so when we have the results from thursday we may have a clearer picture of the trends throughout the whole seat.
The Tories did come quite close in 1983 when the Labour majority was reduced to 3,831. With these boundaries the Tories would probably have won the seat in that year.
Andy
How were the boundaries different in 1983?
Pete
Were the Conservatives ever ahead in Bassetlaw in 1976 or 1968? I know Labour won a byelection here in 1969.
The basis of Labour strength in Bassetlaw would still be the old but steadily fading mining heritage. Curiously if the Conservatives are ahead in Bassetlaw, Don Valley and Rother Valley on Thursday (which they might well be) then the majority of what remains of the British coal industry will be in a Conservative voting area. Which would juxtapose nicely with the loss of the last Conservative ward in Hallam.
In 1983 as currently Bassetlaw included Warsop and excluded the area around Retford. CLearly these changes make a significant difference and it would have been very close in 1983.
I dont have detailed voting figures for those years (and nothing for 1968) but I can tell you the Conservatives won a plurality of votes in 1976 and became the largest party on the council (until 1979). They also won a majority of votes and seats within the district in the county council elections of 1977.
Independents played a bigger part in those days so the Tory share of the vote in 1976 was only 37.8% so the highest vote share they have received within Bassetlaw district since its creation in 1973 (with the exception of 1977) was last year.
So Retford has until now not been in Bassetlaw constituency. Odd that as apart from Worksop it is the only town in Bassetlaw district. Perhaps the constituency should have been called Worksop and Warsop instead. Which would have made it easier to find on a map for the uninitiated.
Since 1983 it hasnt. I suppose Bassetlaw has been a longstanding constituency name. These boundary changes more or less restore the boundaries that existed prior to 1983 (less to be precise)
Bassetlaw as a constituency name dates to 1885. It was a wapentake name from the middle ages but did not come in to local government until the Heath era reforms.
It’s one of those seats named after places which don’t actually exist, like Elmet, Broxtowe and Woodspring.
Quite a range of plausible results in Bassetlaw, including a Conservative victory, or a larger Labour win…..
2009/2010 most likely
Lab 25,561 47.6% -3.4%
Con 22,984 42.8% +8.3%
LD 5,155 9.6% -4.3%
Total votes 53,700
Lab majority 2,577 4.8%
LAB HOLD
Swing 5.9% from Lab to Con
The Bassetlaw wapentake was still in use for some purposes in 1885, when its name was used for this constituency. Broxtowe is also named after a wapentake, and was first created in 1918, by which time the wapentakes served little or no administrative role.
Elmet is named for a Celtic kingdom; more directly, it includes the village Barwick-in-Elmet.
Woodspring is named after the former borough of Avon which, like the borough of Waverley in Surrey, was named in apparent desperation after an isolated church so as not to particularly offend any of the various disparate local towns.
Silly to say that Bassetlaw “doesn’t exist”. There is no town called Bassetlaw but the wapentake nominally still exists – it just doesn’t have any function at the moment.
I think the last function which was officially assigned to hundreds/wapentakes was to take financial responsibility for damage caused by a disturbance which was certified to be a ‘riot’ in law. This was provided by section 6 of the (famous) Riot Act (1 Geo. I c. 5) although case law complicated the picture very much. The Riot (Damages) Act 1886 reformed the system entirely.
Speaking of desparate naming, Kirklees has to win since Kirkless Abbey (one of the purported burial places of Robin Hood, I think) isn’t even in the distrcit of Kirklees.
Is Kirkless Abbey in Leeds? There is a Kirkless Lane outside Headingley cricket ground. It was once suggested that Kirkless be renamed Greater Huddersfield – you can imagine how that went down in Dewsbury and Batley!
Yorkshire seems to have more of these vagues titles than most areas – others include Ainsty, Hallam, Craven and Haltemprice.
As to Wapentakes although they may still exist they have certainly fallen out of traditional usage.
I’ve always wondered about Kirklees. Huddersfield is one of the largest towns not to have a local authority named after it. Its bigger than Wigan and I think is more dominant within Kirklees than Wigan is within it’s borough.
Hillingdon is a poxy name too – Uxbridge would have been a more logical name – Havering and Redbridge are worse
How much argument was there in the 1960s as to what the London Boroughs should be called.
It’s curious that some of the smallest boroughs are those with two places named – K&C, H&F, B&D.
The names were formally chosen by the Conservative government of the day. There was a very strict rule that no ‘X and Y’ names would be allowed, with one exception (Kensington and Chelsea). Some of the others agreed to one borough taking over; Westminster had to be the name of the enlarged borough in order to retain city status. Greenwich was unusual because it was much smaller than Woolwich, which it annexed. Where the absorbed councils didn’t agree, a place in the centre of the new borough was used (eg Camden) or a name dredged up from history (Havering, Haringey).
Subsequently two boroughs used their power to change name: Hammersmith added “and Fulham”, and Barking added “and Dagenham” in 1979 and 1980 respectively.
Kirkless is in Calderdale.
Hallam is like Richmond a historic manorial name in Hallma’s case probably predating the conquest.
Craven is an Ecclesiastical deanery in the old West Riding getting its name from Crafna a province of Northumbria. It is larger than the current District and includes large parts of modern Lancashire around Parnoldswick and the Forest of Bowland. Some Yorkshire historians claim it included Carnforth and the West coast around Morecambe Bay.
Haltemprice Priory gave its name to the Borough of Haltemprice – presumably for similar reasons to those indicated for London Boroughs as it was a merger between Cottingham UD and Hessle UD.
Should say ‘Barnoldswick’ of course!!
The Lancashire county council seat covering Barnoldswick is called West Craven
Haltemprice is a great name – a shame the Local Government unit left us in 1974.
I quite like the names East and West Lindsey in Lincolnshire. I’ve got no idea where they come from.
Wikipedia them….
Redbridge is a good name too.
There used to be a red bricked bridge across the river Roding, and trying to find a neutral name for Ilford, Woodford and Wanstead isn’t easy.
I think it would have been as easy as finding a neutral name for Croydon, Coulsdon and Purley, or Ealing, Acton, Southall, Greenford and Northolt. Ilford contributed by far the greatest population to the new borough and would have therefore been a more logical name, but Redbridge does give recognition to the areas west of the Roding
Conservatives win all four Retford wards and in Worksop three Conservatives wins plus one Conservative backed Independent against only two Labour wards.
2008 local elections:
Conservative 10018
Labour 8354
Others 256
There were no LibDem candidates.
The Conservative vote is understated as one Conservative councillor was elected unopposed and in two wards there was no Conservative candidate.
Sorry that should read Others 2564
There must also I think have been a couple of rural wards which didnt have elections at all this year so that would lead to further understatement of the Tory support.
Next stop Nottinghamshire County Council 2009
Does anyone have the 2006 election result for Langold ward?
I ask because Langold is the only single member ward which Labour have won in Bassetlaw.
They only have the 2007 and 2008 results on the Bassetlaw website.
Lab 344
Con 153
I think you would also need Evrton ward from that year:
Con 484
BNP 177
Lab 154
Thanks Pete (I knew you’d have the info somewhere).
I was curious as to how strong an area Langold was for Labour. I’ve never heard it described as industrial area and it’s the sort of place in Bassetlaw (or just to the west in Rother Valley) which has swung strongly Conservative recently.
It is a large majority for such a small place, perhaps the Labour councillor had a significant personal vote. I’ll have to drive through Langold when I’m next in the area.
Can you tell me if the Notts county council wards match exactly to Bassetlaw constituency? I noticed there was a Tuxford ward – hopefully this will include all the parts not in the constituency.
Interestingly in 2005 Labour won 7 out of the 9 Bassetlaw wards. I wonder what the odds would be for a Conservative clean sweep next year?
I think probalbly not a clean sweep but Consertiave gains in Retord E, Retford W, Worksop NW and Worksop W, contributing the tally that will deliver Nottinghamshire county council frome labour to Conservative control
The Tuxford county dvision inclueds all those parts of Bassetlaw distrcit which are not in this constiuency with the eexception of Sturton ward which is.
So we’ll still not be able to get a definitive constituency total!
Blyth and Harworth ward only had a Labour majority of 270 in 2005. I found this surprisingly low. Does this division include other Bassetlaw wards such as Beckingham and Ranskill?
It contains the Blyth, Harwothy and Langold wards. It was marginal in2005 against an Independdent candidate but surely a Consevative could not in in thatr particfular Ed
Tories will take contorl of Nottinghamire next tyear wiyhthout a doubt
As dURHAM had unitary eelctin sthis nyear there is not a sinlge sdhire countyu that Labour will hold next year. sTAFFS and notts and Lancs wil go straigjt to Topry control, Dderbyshire will go NOC.
The last time I checked, Staffordshire county council had a Labour majority of 1 seat which is dependent on a 90 vote majority in Lichfield City North. I don’t expect them to hold that seat next time.
I wouldn’t rule out Conservatives gains in the other Bassetlaw wards if the BNP stand. They could really cut into parts of the Labour vote that the Conservatives can’t get as they have done in Maltby to the west.
The family of Clifford Entwistle, a Labour councillor for Worksop East ward, have been prominent in the news recently.
I keep going through Retford. But have never got out.
I think the Tories might be able to win here now actually, but it’s only looked credible relatively recently.
It does amaze me how far north it is – technically Midlands because it’s Notts.
JJB
For a while I thought you had never managed to leave Retford and were continually driving around having some Kafkaesque experience
Bassetlaw does feel very northern and probably has more in common with South Yorkshire (from where many of it’s newer inhabitants originate) than with the rest of Nottinghamshire (Newark excepted). It is the same NHS trust as Doncaster and also shares a radio station with Doncaster. I think the NCB adminsitered the Bassetlaw mines as part of Yorkshire area as well. The road and rail links head north to Doncaster and south to London but miss Nottingham.
It was once suggested that Bassetlaw, Doncaster, Goole and the Epworth area (effectively the area between the Don and the Trent) should become an administrative area.
That’s a useful description….It looks rather gaunt from the railway, but I believe it’s fairly attractive (found some photos). It does feel like it rolls into Doncaster somewhat, as a kind of gateway to the north.
There is a very mysterious small line which starts at Doncaster and goes to Hull (away from the mainline via Selby) and seems to go through this deserted flat area before arriving at Goole.
I guess the suggested local authority Richard mentioned was a unitary idea?
A brief excursion into history: Retford, under its historic name of East Reford, caused a historic rupture in the Duke of Wellington’s government in 1828. The winning candidates in the 1826 GE were unseated the following year after an extensive inquiry revealed that the election had been marked by bribery and corruption on a considerable scale; the members for Penryn in Cornwall were disbarred for similar reason. Under pressure from the Canningite Tories and Whigs in the government, who were pro-reform, the government decided to not just unseat the members, but to reform the seats entirely. The reformers wanted the seats to be given to unrepresented towns; but, because the House of Lords was opposed to anything that smacked of electoral reform, a compromise was arranged which would see Penryn merged with the unrepresented Falmouth, and its extra seat given to Manchester; while East Retford would be enlarged to include the whole wapentake of Bassetlaw, rather than Birmingham, as the reformers wanted.
However, the Lords decided to reject Penryn’s disenfranchisment. William Husskunson (the then leader of the Canningite Tories, who famously became the first person to die in a railway accident two years later), voted against the government’s proposal for East Retford and offered his resignation to Wellington, who accepted it; the leading pro-reformers resigned too, including two future PMs in Palmerston and the soon-to-be Lord Melbourne.
As a result, a temporary split in Tory ranks became permanent; it became certain that any future Whig-dominated government would attempt to carry a radical Reform Bill, whatever the Lords thought; and a ministerial by-election in Clare involving a newly promoted replacement, Vesey Fitzgerald, led to Fitzgerald’s defeat by Daniel O’Connell, and Wellington and Peel’s decision to concede Catholic Emancipation, which split the Tories into three bitterly opposed groups incapable of forming a united government.
Apart from these historic events, the East Retford compromise solution went through, ensuring this constituency, in essentials, has kept broadly the shape it has held ever since, even after being renamed Bassetlaw in 1885.
Thats fascinating about East Retford. I had always assumeed the old borough constituency consisted only of the town, which it did evidently before 1828.
Ofcourse since 1983 EAst Retford has been in the Newark seat, so the current BAssetlaw is somewhat different, but it will return at the next election to the boundaries that go back all that way
Nobody seems to have posted recently about this seat. However, there is now (May 2009) discussion going on in relation to the Worcester seat (q.v) about translating the opinion polls into putative Tory gains in individual seats from their target list. It has been suggested that as the polls stand this seat looks to be just at the limit of a Tory tide of around 150 gains, adjusting raw figures for other information such as regional differences in swing.
It would be interesting to have up-to-date local information as to how such a prediction made by extrapolation from polling data translates into on-the-spot impressions and information as to what is happening here.
The probability must be that Labour will retain this seat, but if it goes Conservative don’t be bowled over in astonishment.
FS
Bassetlaw is steadily trending demographically Conservative as the villages along the A1 expand in size (there’s also a main line railway station at Retford). The new entrants tend to be middle class ‘refugees’ from South Yorkshire and to a lesser extent greater Nottingham. People who have no love for Labour The good communications and industrial heritage (and lack of big public sectors employers) mean that there are probably more private sector workers than average.
A second demographic trend is the steady dying off of old miners and their wives in the pit villages.
A similar situation occurs to the immediate south in Newark constituency.
The Labour support here is ‘old’ Labour, traditional white working class voters who are socially conservative. There is also a local BJ4BW issue as a result of the importing of foreign workers at a Newark power station nor is it far from Immingham.
The BNP have never really put up candidates here, if they did they could do very well in the pit villages as they have done in Ashfield or across the Rotherham border (where they won the neighbouring ward of Maltby). The LibDems also are very thin on the ground.
Bassetlaw council has been Conservative controlled since 2006 and now has 30 Conservative councillors, 2 Conservative backed Independents and 16 Labour councillors. Although 3 of the Conservative councillors have wards which are in Newark constituency.
It’s rather difficult to extrapolate from local election results to a parliamentary level because there are some wards where the Conservatives instead back an Independent and some where they are elected unopposed. In 2008 the Conservatives won all 4 Retford wards for the first time ever. Expect 3-4 Conservatives gains from Bassetlaw at the county council elections.
Bassetlaw council lost some money in Iceland but seems to have evaded much blame (probably by shifting it onto national government). John Mann causes mixed opinions, some people like him others think he’s a nasty rent-a-quote.
Politically this constituency is becoming rather like Elmet – sharply divided between two blocks of supporters but trending Conservative and won by whichever party is best able to motivate its supporters.
I think that prediction I put a year ago is still correct as a most likely – a Labour majority of 4.8%, although it is a Tory long shot, and Richard and others will have local knowledge.
Given recent discussion – Richard’s post is most helpful – reports from local people about the implications of tomorrow’s County Council elections for predicitng this seat would be very useful.
Can I repeat my request about the implication of county results here?
Labour did less badly in Nottinghamshire than many other counties, if only comparatively. If this applies to Bassetlaw, they should keep the seat. But can somebody indicate more directly how many votes the various parties polled in this seat in the County elections?
“Labour did less badly in Nottinghamshire than many other counties, if only comparatively.”
Well it was still quite a disaster:
Con +10
Lab -25
LD +4
Oth +10
Worse than Derbyshire where Labour fell from 37 to 21 as opposed to the drop in Norringhamshire of 38 to 13.
The difference being in Derbyshire Labour held on in the mining wards whereas in Nottinghamshire they had losses to the LibDems in Ashfield and Independents in Mansfield.
The total vote in Bassetlaw was
Con 13006
Lab 10624
LD 1023
Ind 762
Bassetlaw constituency also includes Wellbeck ward which isn’t included in the above numbers as it is in a different CC division. The Conservatives would have been ahead in Wellbeck by a few hundred votes.
The 2005 CC votes were:
Lab 21158 51.0%
Con 13857 33.4%
Oth 6432 15.5%
Suspiciously like AW’s notional figures for this constituency:
Lab 51.0%
Con 34.5%
LD 13.9%
Oth 0.6%
Except that in the 2005 CC elections 2 of the 8 divisions (Blyth and Worksop East) had no Conservative candidate (Labour were opposed by Independents (who total 4121 votes in these two divisions).
Is it possibly that the notionals are miscalculated and the Conservative vote is 2-3000 votes too low here?
Discounting these two divisions where there was no Conservative candidates in 2005 the swing from Labour to Conservative was12.9% from 2005.
Of the individual CC divisions within this constituency there were Conservative gains in Retford East, Retford West and Worksop West.
Labour did well to hold Worksop NE by 70 votes (the Conservatives were ahead in 2008 and Labour ahead in 2007) and the Conservatives came within 171 votes of Labour in Blyth where they didn’t even have a candidate in 2005 and where 4 of the 5 local councillors are Labour.
Bassetlaw constituency also includes Sturton ward which, like Wellbeck also, is in Tuxford division.
Together these two wards would have increased the Conservative lead here to over 3000.
Thanks, Richard
It looks like the Tories do have chances here, like the LibDems in Ashfield. I almost wonder if there is a tacit pact that the two parties will each concentrate on one seat to avoid splitting the anti-Labour vote (as is happening, for instance, in Bristol seats with a roughly similar Labour lead). It would make sense, although of course the parties would deny it.
I hadn’t considered that before.
The only Conservatives elected in Ashfield borough are in the Hucknall ward which is in Sherwood constituency.
I wonder if the Mansfield Independents will stand at the next general election?
Labour will be badly stretched in the mining constituencies and these are areas where many of their MPs have never had hard contests before and/or have neglected their constituencies.
GE Prediction:
Conservatives: 22000
Labour: 18000
Liberals: 7000
Frederic,
For what it’s worth, there was no pact, tacit or overt, to share the spoils. That’s partly evidenced by the presence of candidates in areas where a 3rd candidate was standing, especially in places like Wksp E. The Bassetlaw strategy was pure & clear: field candidates, fight divisions, win Conservative votes. It seems to have paid off.
Richard,
It’s worth noting the Worksop North margin too; this was reduced to 285, from1390 in 2005. Notwithstanding the lower turnout this time, the combined Labour majority across the 3 areas (Wksp N, Wksp NE and Blyth&Harworth) fell by 2000 votes. Overall, where Labour held seats, it was with a reduced share; where Cons held seats it was with an increased share; plus the success of the three seats won.
Just taking the County wards in the Bassetlaw district on face value alone, i now wont be suprised the Tories will take this off Labour with quite a comfortable majority.
It will be of great credit to the local Tory party who have worked thier socks off to change the mind set of this former mining area.
Who would have thought Bassettlaw to go Blue – staggering
Go Go Go
Is Retford covered by just the two wards so named?
Yes, I think this could now be a Conservative gain.
This is a pretty amazing turnaround.
It does appear that the working class electorate have finally woken up to the assumption Labour made before 1997 that they could take their core vote for granted, and go for policies that would gain the middle-classes, particularly in the South-East.
There seems to be a whole string of seats like this where people are beginning to anticipate “shock” results. But it’s actually a sea change in the political situation. The Welsh Euroresult is another indicator from a former industrial region.
To turn this round, Labour would have to rejuvenate industry. Not least, after the credit crunch I suspect the realistic voters in strong Labour ares have realised that you cannot long-term have social goods like schools and hospitals unless the Government is prepared to invest in industry, and in related areas such as research and development.
And for Labour to go into an election with anything like three million unemploymed will appall such voters.
This problem lands clearly in the remit of Lord Mandelson’s new megaDepartment. One doubts how much he can do in a year to develop policies that will retireve the electoral situation. And in addition one doubts how far a minister who comes from right inside the Westminster establishment, and has not for years had the grassroots perspective that a constituency provides, will see the need for high-tech industry rather than London and international based commerce and wheeler-dealing.
Some of us have been discussing the psephological implications of this elsewhere (see entries for the Pontypridd seat).
An intersting implication of this is that Labour may well lose some apparently very safe seats at the next election whilst keeping some seats which are notionally easier targets for the Tories, specifically ones with more of a middle-class/post-war privte box-type housing vote.
Joe
Retford has only the two CC divisions so for the third year in a row Retford was all blue on the election map.
The last two Labour district councillors are up for election in 2010, I wonder if Retford will become 100% Conservative that day.
Sid
The only part of Bassetlaw the Conservatives are failing to breakthrough in is the eastern part of Worksop. The Conservative vote there really stands out:
Blyth 1492
Misterton 3321
Retford E 1933
Retford W 1305
Tuxford 2511
Worksop E 527
Worksop N 1426
Worksop NE 1599
Worskop W 1403
I know that Worksop E CC division includes Manton pit village (from Worksop SE ward) and also some council estates (from Worksop E ward) but even so there doesn’t seem to be the same Conservative improvement as in the Harworth and Shireoaks areas.
Incidentally its interesting seeing some of the complacent Labour comments about this constituency from 2-3 years ago. I wonder what happened to Joe Dollin though?
John Mann has apparently spoilt his ballot paper for the speakership election, calling all the candidates “dismal.”
Well it takes one to know one.
I doubt many people regard Mann as inspiring in any way.
I’m not sure that’s fair; Mann was one of the main MP’s involved in the anti sleaze campaign, and in terms of trying to stop the Speaker and most of Parliament (at least in terms of Labour and Tories) using the Freedom of Information Act to stop publication of the dodgy expense claims in full.
Mann strikes me as being pretty independent minded and a decent constituency MP who may well have a presonal following limiting any swing against him.
Labour hold by about 4,000-4,500 from Con.
Michael S
Do you live in Bassetlaw?
No, and I’m commenting entirely from the outside.
Can assure you I’m not pro Labour either at the moment. It does seem to me that Mann sticks his head above the parapet more than virtually any other MP in terms of sleaze though.
If he is not a good constituency MP though, i entirely defer to those who’d know far better than me on that.
Michael S
Well Mann certainly has plenty to say about sleeze when it involves a Conservative MP and seems to be the official Labour Party rentaquote attackdog on the subject.
He goes all quite when a Labour MP is implicated though.
I will say though that he has done good work in highlighting anti-semitism although that wont get him many votes in Bassetlaw.
Personally I doubt he has much of a personal vote (I doubt many current MPs have much of a personal vote, certainly in current circumstances) .
He’s not a local (from Leeds, went to private school and was a student politician, Lambeth councillor and has seemingly never done a day’s work which wasn’t for the Labour party or a union) and hasn’t had any notable constituency achievements and as I said he gets publicity by abusing others which isn’t likely to go down well with the sort of neutrals who tend to make up the personal vote.
Notice the big drop in the Labour vote in 2001 when Joe Ashton stood down. Now Ashton was a man with a significant personal vote and was the sort of person the average Labour voter here could associate with and even forgive for his massage parlour interests. John Mann doesn’t come across in the Ashton way.
As to this constituency there is no way Labour will have a 4-5000 majority here.
The result is likely to be a majority of under 2000 with the winner being the party which motivates its voters best.
Thanks for the Retford wards Richard.
On the seat, I find it a difficult one to guess.
I think it will see a larger swing to the Conservatives – not sure quite which side it will come out on.
Of course John Mann’s personal vote, whatever it is, will not count for anything amongst the 17,000+ voters who live in and around Retford and who are being added from the Newark seat.
I think this will be a hard nut for the Tories to crack – Labour still had three out of four County Council seats in Worksop,
but one of them was only just held.
Still, there may be something beneath the radar,
and I take the point about Hornsey and Wood Green being a lower priority.
Not sure actually – 8.5% swing, and the other wards as Richard provided.
It could be one of the shocks.
Richard (ref 11 June)
Tory success (or not) in Wksp East is subjective. On a pure numbers game, the stats for this year’s NCC elections do make the 527 votes in Wksp E look pretty poor compared to all other areas. But if you compare with the 2005 election, when there was no Tory candidate, then those 527 votes mark a significant gain; being 19% of votes cast, and stolen equally from both Labour and Independent candidates.
It’s also interesting to note that turnout in this most entrenched of Labour areas of Bassetlaw is consistently low compared to other wards/divisions – which speaks to your comment that motivating voters will be key to the success of either party in the parliamentary campaign, but suggests that Labour aren’t doing so even where they’re strongest. Does that show that the residents are completely disengaged, or is there scope for the Tories to increase votes?
Joe James B:
Whilst Labour hold 3 of 4 of the Wksp seats, one was lost, one was close enough to go to a recount, one saw the majority slashed by about 1000 votes, and one held firm but did reveal Tory votes that had not shown before. Labour started the day with 7 of 9 Bassetlaw NCC seats, and ended it with an inglorious 4. Had that been the General Election, the cumulative votes on the day would have produced a Tory MP in Bassetlaw, with a majority of 1500 – not vast, but a huge swing from Labour’s current 10k.
How do people view Bassetlaw’s chances in view of the Norwich North result? Bassetlaw is target 162, where Norwich was 163. How much does the solitary focus of a by-election vary from the likely outcomes in a general election campaign?
Sid
According to Pete Whitehead’s calculation the Bassetlaw constituency results was:
Con 13935
Lab 10881
LD 1360
Ind 762
As to Norwich North, the byelection result was very similar to the local election result there of the previous month as indeed Crewe’s was last year.
I think that suggests they had pretty sound underpinnings and were not a one off protest vote.
As to what will happen here next year as I’ve said before it will depend on which side’s voters are most motivated and I expect the majority to be under 2000.
Re the Conservative performance here Pete’s calculation gives them 51.7% at the local election.
An increase from 2005 of 17.2%, the largest increase in the country.
Now I know they did well but I didn’t think they had done that well here.
Personally I think AW has underestimated the Conservatives vote in his notionals by 2-3%.
I think this seat will be close, as a most likely.
Labour were not wiped out here in June CC, but from a quick calculation in my head about 10% behind.
I think it’ll be a very high vote for both the main parties, but perhaps the Conservatives are the narrow favourites – by about 1,000.
sorry – Pete has of course provided the result – had a look up the thread.
But anyway – that’s my view now.
Someone has been taking an interest in John Mann’s activities – http://www.mannisms.com
The Lib Dems have reselected David Dobbie
Ladbrokes:
Labour 5/6
Conservatives 5/6
Liberal Democrats 100/1
On the face of it, this would be a surprising Conservative gain, but the Tories have been doing well locally of late. Labour will hope that their above-average performance in 2005 will just about insulate them from disaster here.
Well this is interesting – it’s a slightly safer Labour seat than Erewash but at times this looks the likelier upset.
but
I think those odds are about right and Labour will hold on most likely.
I’d say Mann will hold on, but maybe only by his personal vote. He’s very vocal campaining against lawyers retaining fees for miners’ compensation claims, as well as against corrupt colleagues.
“as well as against corrupt colleagues”
He has a lot to say about corrupt MPs unless they are Labour. In which case he is strangely silent.
I agree with Barnaby on this seat.
Although Boundary Changes favour Tories, Labour performance last time should insulate them.
Labour hold majority 2000.
Bassetlaw is now counting on election night. Previously it was down as a Friday count.
Mann’s being targeted. There’s an online petition about his expenses repayment.
http://www.mannexpenses.com
Well I certainly hope it wont insulate them. While I am undesided between labour or tory I really dont like Mann. For me his personnality just grates
Lab Hold= 2,500 maj
CON 500
Labour 22800
Conservative 21500
LD 5000
UKIP 1200
Is this a contest between Labour Worksop and Tory Retford? Or is that too simplistic?
Well yes, the Tories would need to be getting sizeable votes in and around Worksop to really make this a contest. Indeed, Tories have votes in Worksop and Labour have votes in Retford.
C gain maj 200
Lab 21500 43%
Con 21000 42%
LD 5000 10%
Lab maj 500
Joe
“it’s a slightly safer Labour seat than Erewash but at times this looks the likelier upset.”
Demographic trends, Erewash being part of the greater Nottingham-Derby conurbation is trending Labour while Bassetlaw being mining/rural/commuter is trending Conservative.
I would be surprised if the Tories could gain this one, unless the polls worsen quite a bit for Labour. It is possibly true however that demographic trends are starting to help them here.
Interesting piece on conservativehome today regarding this seat. This really could be a big surprise on election night. The demographics have changed to such an extent in Bassetlaw since the last election I can see this as a CON GAIN with a 1500 maj.
Lab Hold
Maj 4300
This seat has gentrified, at the same time as the once formidable bloc of loyal Labour voters has continued to diminish, as a result of the grim reaper and widespread working class disillusionment, as the area’s mining heritage slowly fades into the distant past.
On the other hand, I think any fair observer would rate John Mann as an excellent local MP, with a high national profile and a strong reputation locally. As per my prediction above, I think his personal vote will save him this time, but it will be close.
Andrea Hamilton is now the UKIP candidate here.
Lab maj 1,000
Hello. My name is Grahame Whitehurst and I’m the Independent candidate for the Bassetlaw constituency.
I note that UK Polling Report hasn’t been able to track down my vital statistics, so here they are:
Born: Kuala Lumpur, Malaya, where father was a serving soldier. After leaving Malaya, I spent the next two years in Woolwich Arsenal. My parents then returned to Langold, where we spent the next year living with my grandparents. After this we moved to Carlton-in-Lindrick where I grew up.
I attended the Ramden Country Primary School in Carlton and the King Edward VI Grammar School, Retford.
I studied Speech and Drama at Manchester Polytechnic and worked as an actor for seven years before packing it in. I’ve also worked as a builder’s labourer, a security guard; a video store manager; a machinist; a qualiity controller; a carer; a salesman; a window cleaner and variety of other things.
That’s me.
All the best,
Grahame
PS.
My election blog can be seen here:
http://ironwand.blogspot.com/
LAB HOLD
As the unsuccessful Tory candidate in 1983 and 1997 I find this discussion most interesting. I lost by 3800 in 1983 because the boundaries had changed and I was deprived of the Retford area and got the Warsop area instead!
I wish Keith Girling all the best and hope he can win it for us.
well it was another convincing win for Labour. No sign of the progress the demography implied.
A spectacularly poor Tory performance. Adjacent Labour held seats showed swings to Tories of between 8 and 10%. Here, less than 1%. Just to prove it wasn’t a fluke, Labour took 4 Tory council seats and the Tories also lost a seat to Independent leaving them with a majority of just two. That was as good as it will ever get for Bassetlaw Tories. It’s downhill from here.
I’ve only just got round to seeing the result here and assumed Labour had held by a thousand or two, given good swings to the Tories in seats like Sherwood and Amber Valley and Derbyshire NE etc. This is an excellent Labour result with a higher Labour share than in Bolsover and a majority not hugely lower. I take it this is mostly down to John Manns incumbency and personal popularity. It seems we will have to wait a few more elections before the demographic changes deliver this to the Tories
It astonished me as well Pete.
Big swings in Don Valley, Rother Valley and Bolsover as well.
This must have been Labour’s best performance in any mining area in the whole country.
Labour also did very well in the local elections.
I think that John Mann is perhaps underestimated by Conservatives as he is such a mouthshite however he has done good work in this constituency and his highlighting of anti-semitism does him credit (especially as Jews are about as common as eskimos in Bassetlaw).
Dreadful result for the Tories here. I also expected a significant swing, but suspected John Mann was popular and would hold on.
The LD vote fell, and at under 12.5% would have lost their deposit under the rules which existed before 1987.
Swing in Mansfield was 9.5% compared to just 0.7% here.
John Mann has proved himself to be a bit of a maverick character within the Labour party! He’s called for tighter immigation controls, which im sure wouldn’t have damaged his chances here ! Some of his views strike me as quite populist, rather than partisan, hence the good result !
There was a substantial swing here in 2001 from Lab to Con.
But since then, the position has remained almost exactly the same.
hi i think the 2010 notional figs gave the cons some false hope as i think they gave us too many votes
e.g losing rampton ward (700 con votes at a guess) and meden(600)=10700 in return we got retford(4200 con votes) and a 1000 rural voters (which includes a ex pit village which still learns labour so iam guessing about 300 con votes) which comes to 15200. also there was no ukip in 2005 which could added a 1000 con votes to 2005 result.
as for the labour vote one word outstanding
“This is an excellent Labour result with a higher Labour share than in Bolsover and a majority not hugely lower.”
It’s a higher Labour share of the vote than in any other Notts or Derbys constituency.
It’s also higher than in Doncaster, Rotherham and Barnsley.
This is rather amusing to me as there is a certain sort of South Yorkshire person who when they come into some money move to a Bassetlaw village at top speed and have a rather superior attitude to their brethren in Don and Rother Valleys.
They are commonly to be found in the posh restaurants in Bawtry.