Comments on: Bassetlaw

By: myth11

myth11 — Fri, 06 May 2011 08:37:56 +0000

i got it spot on lol
yes pete you are correct i have given myself too much room
lab 27
con 18
indy 3
order of likely gains
retford north
carlton
worksop south
retford east
welbeck

February 13th, 2011 at 10:07 pm

By: myth11

myth11 — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 01:37:20 +0000

1979 local results v 2010 local results i have put the wards together to remove boundary changes
retford
year 1979
lab 5448 49%con 4258 39%lib 1316 12%
total 11022
year 2010
lab 5220 50% con 4512 43%lib 515 5%bnp 282 2%
total 10529
worksop 1979
lab 12187 57% con 6917 32% indy 2242 11%
total 21346
worksop 2010
lab 12398 63% con 5883 30% indy 893 5% lib 386 2%
total 19560

By: myth11

myth11 — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 01:45:14 +0000

Misterton cc wards
misterton
used to have a small boat shipyard is the most labour of the 5 wards (maybe be even at the last ge)
sutton and Ranskill
both these wards have had lib dem c,s in the past i would expect to be fairly safe tory now with ranskill been a labour long shot.
Beckingham+Clayworth
very rural very tory

By: myth11

myth11 — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 01:11:51 +0000

retford wards
retford is a very mixed town with 25 to 30% pubic sector workers and up to 25% council housing
east retford has a rural element with a couple of hamlets it also a few more ab class making it more tory
west retford once a place in itself has the same amount of abs but not the rural which makes tory in a good year and lab in bad.
north and south retford are labour bests ward torries do win here when the core labour vote does not turn out.
at a ge retford labour normaly leads tory

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 15:19:00 +0000

Joe Ashton had a big personal vote (just like his successor seems to have).

In 1983 there was still a lot of mining here.

In the miners’ strike, most Bassetlaw miners took the Scargill/NUM side, unlike the areas further south in Nottinghamshire. This would have led to Labour holding their vote better here in 1987 than in Mansfield, Ashfield and Sherwood.

By: myth11

myth11 — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 14:06:03 +0000

local results for retford in 1983 one month before the 1983 ger election
only 3 wards back than but on same area
north con 1088
lab 939
sdp 290
west lab 1436
lab 1169
con 968
con 872
sdp 323
east con 1390
lab 1059
sdp 267
con maj in retford 12(using frist place) i dont think torrries would have won in 1983 using 2010 seat also its shows not as tory as some think..i will cofess the results would have been worthwhile if it had taken place on the same day as the ger.

By: myth11

myth11 — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 22:07:07 +0000

yes pete you are correct i have given myself too much room
lab 27
con 18
indy 3
order of likely gains
retford north
carlton
worksop south
retford east
welbeck

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 22:02:48 +0000

I never did think this widespread list of predicted LD gains from Labour would come off,
although Redcar came from nowhere (although I did see the betting on it).

I always thought some Lab/LD/Abstainers would rally to Labour for the very reason that defeat was a serious threat – unlike 2001/5.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 20:52:05 +0000

Myth, with respect you aren’t really sticking your neck out very much predicting a range of outcomes of between 3 and 5 Labour gains when at least 2 gains are certain and more than 5 is virtually impossible

By: Andrea

Andrea — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 19:47:23 +0000

Barnaby, I didn’t make any “official” prediction here. However I had some seats in mind as potential LD gains while thinking other targets were more likely to be held by Labour.
Then the Cleggmania came and confounded everything. However I recall I had Newcastle North down as a potential gain while City of Durham was more a Lab hold in my mind.