Bassetlaw
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16803 (33.89%)
Labour: 25018 (50.46%)
Liberal Democrat: 5570 (11.24%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.59%)
Independent: 407 (0.82%)
Majority: 8215 (16.57%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 25057 (51%)
Conservative: 16932 (34.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6828 (13.9%)
Other: 304 (0.6%)
Majority: 8126 (16.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12010 (29.8%)
Labour: 22847 (56.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5485 (13.6%)
Majority: 10837 (26.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11758 (30.2%)
Labour: 21506 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4942 (12.7%)
Other: 689 (1.8%)
Majority: 9748 (25.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11838 (24.7%)
Labour: 29298 (61.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4950 (10.3%)
Referendum: 1838 (3.8%)
Majority: 17460 (36.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: John Mann(Labour) Born 1960, Leeds. Educated at Bradford Grammar School and Manchester University. Former trade union officer. Former Lambeth councillor. MP for Bassetlaw since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
Keith Girling (Conservative) Born 1959, Nottingham. Educated at Manvers Pierrepont Comprehensive. Former non-commissioned officer in the Grenadier Guards. Nottinghamshire county councillor.John Mann(Labour) Born 1960, Leeds. Educated at Bradford Grammar School and Manchester University. Former trade union officer. Former Lambeth councillor. MP for Bassetlaw since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
David Dobbie (Liberal Democrat) Supply teacher. Contested Bassetlaw 2005.
Andrea Hamilton (UKIP) Grahame Whitehurst (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 98891
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 2.5%
White: 98.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 81.7%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 13.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.4%
Owner-Occupied: 70.7%
Social Housing: 20.3% (Council: 18.3%, Housing Ass.: 1.9%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
‘What’s Clegg got to do with Bassetlaw?
The LibDems don’t exist there.’
Quite – the Lib Dems haven’t even managed 15% of the poll in the last few elections
“Quite – the Lib Dems haven’t even managed 15% of the poll in the last few elections”
They have no local councillors either and in fact rarely even have candidates.
Apart from in Ashfield and Chesterfield the LibDems don’t figure much in the north midlands, indeed the East Midlands is the only region not to have any LibDem MPs.
The best chance the Tories had of gaining Bassetlaw was back in the1968 By Election where Joe Ashton won with a majority of about 700
With a few exceptions, the seats the Tories did best in around here were those which they had previously held, such as Amber Valley and Erewash. The Tories do not have a recent history of winning Bassetlaw at a parliamentary level. The seat also seems to give a high personal vote to popular incumbents – both Ashton and Mann – which have seen them through during times when the seat might have changed hands based on national swing.
I was in Worksop a few weeks ago for the first time in years. I have to say it looks a lot nicer than it did when I was growing up in Notts in the 1980s. It’s the kind of place the Labour government might have got some credit for improving with all its public spending.
That’s an interesting analysis HH. Sounds right to me although I don’t know a lot about this area.
It would make sense if it was replicated in the surrounding constituencies but there were big swings against Labour in all of those.
As to Worksop and Retford I’ve never seen any signs of affluence in the towns – though Retford has a nice park and lots of great traditional pubs (doubtless a consequence of its road and rail communciations) – with the inhabitants seemingly very WWC. In fact they reminded me of what South Yorkshire looked like twenty years ago.
“Apart from in Ashfield and Chesterfield the LibDems don’t figure much in the north midlands, indeed the East Midlands is the only region not to have any LibDem MPs.”
It seems to be their weakest area at all levels. The only parliamentary seats they have held in East Midlands since the war are Chesterfield and very briefly Leicester South. Anyone got any suggestions why this is the most resolutely two-party area of the country?
Nick Clegg was their MEP here 1999-2004. Perhaps it was his poor quality constituency service
I remember Jo Ashton having a real go at Russell Profit, loony left candidate for Lewisham East, in 1987, talking about these “idiots in London who can’t even win by-elections”.
sorry Joe of course
typo
I would quite like to have a look at Retford, Richard, particularly if it has good pubs.
I met a band who came from Worksop when in the Peak District once.
Richard – I was talking in relative terms.
Relative to the 1980s, Worksop definitely looks better than it used to. Not many empty shops in the town centre for starters. Admittedly you’re right that it still isn’t by any means a wealthy town though.
By comparison, the Notts towns around where I grew up, particularly Mansfield, also Sutton-in-Ashfield and Kirkby-in-Ashfield, have all deteriorated substantially since the 1980s. All 3 towns and especially Mansfield still had a string of surrounding collieries when I was a boy and they have gone further and further downhill with each pit that has closed. There are none left now. None of these towns, unlike Worksop, have shown even the smallest signs of recovery or regeneration.
A last point I wanted to make about the Labour vote in Bassetlaw is that there is still coal mining nearby – Maltby, Hatfield – albeit not in the constituency but someof the remaining miners must live here. Also there is a big power station in the seat at Harworth, which is the site of a pit that the unions are trying to get re-opened.
I meant the colliery site is Harworth, the power station is of course nearby at High Marnham.
Very bad for the Tories and very, very bad for the Lib Dems. Clegg had better get use to results like this from now on. This is a taste of what he 2011 local Elections will be like for the Lib Dems.
“A last point I wanted to make about the Labour vote in Bassetlaw is that there is still coal mining nearby – Maltby, Hatfield – albeit not in the constituency but someof the remaining miners must live here. Also there is a big power station in the seat at Harworth, which is the site of a pit that the unions are trying to get re-opened.”
There’s only a few hundred employed still at Maltby and Hatfield and they’ll be scattered about various constituencies. Ditto with the workers at the Gainsborough power stations. And of course things are different re pay and union control than they were in the old days.
Anyway it hasn’t stopped strong swings against Labour in all the traditional mining constituencies from Selby southwards, whether they still have mines and power stations or not.
As to the deterioration of Mansfield and Ashfield, they do seem to be places that are bypassed by the motorways. I’ll have to make the effort to see them if they’re as run down as you say.
“The best chance the Tories had of gaining Bassetlaw was back in the1968 By Election where Joe Ashton won with a majority of about 700″
I’d forgotten about that. And 1968 was a vintage year. I wonder if we could here have won had there been a by-election at the same time as Crewe and Nantwich in 2008 – most probably not.
“I would quite like to have a look at Retford, Richard, particularly if it has good pubs.”
About a dozen in the town centre and more just off it.
A very good place for a pub crawl on a day with good sport on TV.
Otley is also great for pubs and is overlooked by a range of hills.
York has many historic pubs.
As to the unaffluent state of Retford, there’s a council estate on the other side of the ring road to the town centre. I assumed it was a Labour stronghold but it is in the only ward that the Conservatives won this May.
“I wonder if we could here have won had there been a by-election at the same time as Crewe and Nantwich in 2008 – most probably not.”
Almost certainly yes.
The local results in Bassetlaw were excellent in 2008 and still good in 2009.
I’m not sure if Ken Clarke stood in that by-election – I think he stood in Mansfield in the 1966 General.
The Conservative candidate in the 1968 byelection was Jim Lester, who stood again in the 1970 general election and was later MP for Broxtowe.
“I wonder if we could here have won had there been a by-election at the same time as Crewe and Nantwich in 2008 – most probably not.”
Almost certainly yes
Remembet thta a by-election before 2010 would have been fought ont he old boundaries, which is to say it would have excluded Retford and surrounding Tory vollages but would have included Warsop. It would have required a much bigger swing than that required to gain Crewe, although on the swing achived fhere it would have fallen. Slightly surprised the Conservatives couldnt win a bylection in 1968 when all sort s of unlikley palces were falling to them, but then 1968 was a lifetime ago and the mining vote was very much stronger then,even though the boundaries are more simlar to those pertaining now (which a\are much more pro-Tory) than those 1983-2010
Thanks David. Good letter in the
,,,,,,,,,,,Standard yesterday.
Good to see David Boothroyd posting again.
Seems really strange there was no BNP candidate here at the last election given that they stood candidates in other mining areas.
Would the BNP have taken votes directly from John Mann?
If the result in neighbouring Bolsover is anything to go by then yes, the BNP probably would have taken votes from Labour had they stood here.
Another good Labour result in this constituency as Labour held Harworth ward, with a 13% swing from the Tories since May.
Yes, for some reason things seem to be going incredibly badly for the Tories here,
and the reasons are not obvious as the profile of the seat would appear (although I know little) to be the sort of place they would do quite well nowadays.
Caroline Spelman contested this seat for the Tories in 1992.
‘Yes, for some reason things seem to be going incredibly badly for the Tories here,’
I always thought winning this seat was a step too far for the Tories, but thought they’d come closer to putting a dent into John Mann’s majority, which bizarrely he managed to increase at the last election
We’re not yet the US yet – where many poor voters put their lot in with the Republicans because of their stances over certain issues such as abortion or gay rights
this is a very working class seat and I would expect it to remain safe for the party for the forseeable future
Yes, looking back at my statements about a large Con swing here seemed a bit Gloy Plopwell,
and embarrassing now.
But it did seem to be a close profile of the kind of seat they’d do well in – perhaps it’s not actually like that, and the Labour vote is stickier.
‘Yes, looking back at my statements about a large Con swing here seemed a bit Gloy Plopwell,’
You were by no means the only one
The common consensus – which I agreed with myself – were that seats like this were swinging towards the Tories long-term
The last election result turns that on its head – although the poor result for Labour in 2001 (by the standards of that election) is perhaps explained by the loss of incumbancy
The West Virginia factor doesn’t seem to apply in the UK – outside Essex that is
This must have been won of my own worst predictions as well – I predicted a Labour majority of 1,000. I have argued consistently that seats with a certain demographic characteristic were seeing a long term swing to the Tories and would likely see a big swing to the party in 2010. For the most part the results in Sherwood, Amber Valley, Cannock, North Warwickshire etc bore this theory out. Bassetlaw seems to have been a huge exception, but like Joe i’m not sure if this is because it somehow different demograhically or purely that John Mann managed to buck those trends here. I wonder also if the Tory council is somewhat unpopular as several local by-elections in the area have been poor for the Tories too, though the fact they control the council shows they do have an ability to do well here in good times.
The neighbouring seats of Sherwood and Ashfield saw huge swings against Labour so it almost certainly must have been a personal vote for John Mann.
I don’t think anyone could have accurately predicted what would happen in each of the Nottinghamshire constituencies.
It’s interesting to consider that the techniques now exist to accurately forecast the number of seats in a British general election as a whole in the form of exit polls. It makes you wonder whether one day the same thing might be possible for each constituency.
Tim – have you ever been to West Virginia? As someone who lived and worked there for a year, in my view it is not a place that is really comparable to anywhere in the UK, and certainly not to Essex.
West Virginia is one of the poorest states in the US whilst Essex is one of the wealthiest counties of the UK. Essex houses a lot of upwardly mobile skilled working class and lower middle class people, many of whom commute to the capital. Essex is more akin to the middling soccer mom suburbs found outside the major US cities – which are often solidly Republican. West Virginia, being largely very rural and isolated, does not really have this demographic at all.
Cultural issues do play a significant part in West Virginia’s drift towards the Republicans but it is at least as much to do with the Democrats’ policies on the environment, and latterly emissions trading, in what is still a major coal mining and processing state. Unhappily this also has no parallel in the UK, given that we have virtually no mining or heavy industry left in the UK.
Americans split their votes to a far greater extent than the British – my Chicago-born wife being a prime example – which to some extent makes comparisons between the two countries very difficult because it results in much fewer no-go areas for either party than we have here.
With the right candidate, Democrats can still do very well in WV, as Sen. Manchin showed last week.
Andy – but Ashfield was similar to Bassetlaw in that the Tories made no real progress.
Without the unpopularity of Hoon, the parachuting in of Gloria de Piero and the bandwagon built up by the Lib Dems over the past few years I think Ashfield might have had a similar result to Bassetlaw.
There must be something holding the Tories back in Ashfield, Mansfield and Bassetlaw that isn’t a factor in Sherwood. Maybe the mining factor isn’t fading as fast due to slower recovery of the areas and less gentrification.
This country is very unlike the US from what I’ve seen.
Possibly not in the NE
‘Tim – have you ever been to West Virginia? As someone who lived and worked there for a year, in my view it is not a place that is really comparable to anywhere in the UK, and certainly not to Essex.’
You misunderstand me
Geographically, socially and economically they have nothing in common whatsoever, but politcally they do in that members of the lower classes in both West Virginia and Essex seem pre-disposed to vote for right-wing parties (whether Republicans or Tories)
Look at somewhere like Thurrock – which is without a doubt one of the ugliest, greyist most industrially-scarred landscapes in the UK – and yet it’s a Tory seat
In West Virginia the Republicans have won similar districts (as they are known over there) with as much industrial decay and working class voters as Thurrock
Look at Basildon – not as industrial as Thurrock admitedly, but scarcely more pleasant – and yet both of its seats – one of which is paired with the almost equally chavvy Billericay – and the other which merges along the coast with Eastern Thurrock taking in the lovely Pittsea, the picturesque Stanford Le Hope and the much sought-after Langdon Hills and Nethermayne – are rock-solid Tory
There is a US equivelent here as Republicans have based their success over the last 20-30 years on doing just as well amongst this demographic, which is peverse because anyone who knows anything about politocs will tell you that such groups will not do well from electing people frfom these parties to represent ehem
I’m not complaining – one could make a case for saying they get exactly what they deserve – but its a strange phenomenom all the same and one which has echoes in the UK – but not here in Bassetlaw which must be the only seat outside London and scotland where Labour actually managed to increase their majority
just had a look at the retford and worksop local election results
worksop+carlton
2005 2010
lab 57.38(11027) 62.25(14026)
con 26.83(5157) 32.07(7225)
lib n/a 1.71(386)
indy 15.79(3034) 3.97(893)
maj 30.55(5870) maj 30.18(6801)
lab to con 0.37
retford
lab 52.57(5018) 49.58(5220)
con 47.43(4528) 42.85(4512)
lib n/a 4.89(515)
bnp n/a 2.68 (282)
maj 5.14(490) maj 6.73 (708)
con to lab 1.59
Tim.
I’m puzzled why you single out West Virginia as it’s not a good example to illustrate your point. The part of West Virginia where the Republicans do best is the least industrial bit, being the north and central parts of the state, including the largest town Charleston. The south and south-east of the state along the Mononghela river (think I spelt it right) is where most of the industry is/was and that district remains very Democratic voting, even in the recent congressional elections. The state as a whole still votes strongly Democratic in senate and gubernential elections, and also in presidential elections where the Democratic candidate isn’t an urban liberal. WV voted strongly for Bill Clinton, and would have done so for Hillary had she beaten Obama in the primary.
US voters split their votes much more than Brits so finding any good analogies to the UK is difficult. I would have thought that the poorRepublican voters of Kansas, Indiana and Kentucky were a better analogy than West Virginia.
Of course analogies between different countries voting patterns are never perfect. I certainly wouldn’t agree with Tim that West Virginia bears any resemblance to Essex. Essex compares demographically more to parts of New Jersey (though not Essex county, unless we include the likes of Newham in the English Essex) and Long Island, NY. There the analogy falls down in terms of voting behaviour.
I do think that the trends in West Virginia and some similar kinds of areas (Western PA, Eastern Kentucky) do bear similarity to those in some old industrial regions in England, notably in the Midlands.
I want to take issue with some of your descriptions of voting behaviour in WV.
“The state as a whole still votes strongly Democratic..in presidential elections where the Democratic candidate isn’t an urban liberal. WV voted strongly for Bill Clinton”
Clinton carried WV handily enough in 1992 and 1996 but in both elections it did actually trend Republican, that is to say the swing to him 1992 was lower than in the nation as a whole. It had of course been one of the few states carried in 1988 by Michael Dukakis who fits the description of ‘urban liberal’ more perfectly than just about any other Democratic presidential candidate. It has also trended Republican in all three subsequent Presidential elections so that while in 1988 it was 7% more Democrat than the nation, in 2008 it was 10% less Democrat.
Also if you take a look at the county map of WV for 2008 you can see that Obama did especially badly in the southern counties you mention. Actually he was stronger in Kanawha county (which includes Charleston) and his best county was Boone which is part of the Charleston Metro area.
Actually having been to Charleston myself i’m surprised if that is the best the state has to offer as it was an absolute shit hole and conformed to all the stereotypes that many people in this country hold about white trash in certain poorer areas of the US. That this is one of the stronger Republican areas rather makes Tim’s point (though as I say it actually wasn’t one of the stronger GOP areas in the state in 2008, it remained stronger for them relative to the nation).
We’ve had this West Virginia debate a number of times and there probably is nowhere in the UK that directly compares. I see it as a useful shorthand though to describe a number of areas of the US which are predominantly blue-collar and traditionally Democrat voting which have trended to the right and there are of course useful comparisons with the UK. Look at maps of Pennsylvania showing which party carried each county for 1988 and 2008. In the former there is a big bloc of counties in the west around Pittsburgh which voted Democrat while all the counties around Philadelphia in the east are Republican. In 2008 the reverse is true. This for me mirrors the situation in say Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire where the Conservatives are able to win areas like Sherwood and Amber Valley while losing Gedling (and almost failing in Broxtowe), or the relative success of the Tories in places like Cannock and Nuneaton compared to middle class areas in Birmingham (in contrast to say 1992).
I would say that poorish rural areas like Kansas and nebraska bear more comparison with areas like the Fens and Lincolnshire and Norfolk which have also trended to the right. As I say no comparison is perfect but fundamentally there is a similarity in that where the GOP used to be strong in high-income urban areas (eg parts of Manhatten) they have lost ground to the Democrats and conversely relatively poor, white
(ex-)industrial and culturally Conservative areas have moved the other way and there is no denying that a similar process has been underway in this country, whatever detailed differences can obviously be drawn between areas on either side of the Atlantic.
And as you’re in Chicago HH, have a look at the county maps for Illinois in 1988 and 2008. Not quite as pronounced as in PA, but a similar pattern again.
Interesting point about Nebraska (flat, middle of the country) having some similarities to the Fens in eastern England.
I didn’t realise it wasn’t that affluent there though.
(Nebraska)
What about Lincoln itself (Nebraska)?
You’re right that US voters certainly split their votes more than those in the UK – and of course you get a lot of single-issue voters – not a common phenomenom here in the UK
The Tories too do least well in the industrial bits of Essex (Thurrock) The comparison is that neither Essex nor West Virginia are pretty places to live and both have areas which to the outsider would seem impoverished – and I’m not just talking about the industrial bits. Southend, Pittsea, Basildon, Harlow and Clacton in Essex for example which are urban but not industrial and are as run-down as one could imagine. And yet all three (six in terms of seats) send Tory MPs to Parliament – and usually very right wing ones at that.
West Virginia has moved closer to the Republicans in every election since 1996 – the last time it voted for the Democrat candidate. Al Gore, a southerner, was unable to win there and Bill Clinton was a political aberration in that he won southern states as conservative as Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky – and you couldn’t imagine any Democrat doing that nowadays
The most interesting stat I found about the US was that in 2004 26 of the 28 poorest states voted Republican. Notwithstanding the trends Pete accurately describes, there’s a long way to go, although I think the fact that counties like Kent, Northamptonshire, Suffolk, Norfolk and of course Essex don’t have one Labour MP amongst them tells us we’re moving in the direction of less class-based politics
bassetlaws mult wards need spliting into singles and someone to put end to the election by thirds its a joke system i.e it ok for one part to vote 3 out of 4 years some 2 out of 4 and 1 out of 4.
as for the next local elections i expect labour to gain in both towns with worksop south and retford east as the closerist battles as the other areas welbeck and maybe tuxford is going to be close.
hi all i am the only one who think the Notional 2005 Results were way out for bassetlaw as i will expain
con starting point 12010
lost areas
-meaden 600 min(i have always compared this place to ollerton which even in bad see 2005 can have a 1000 con voters despite been safe labour.
-rampton 700
gained areas
bits of sutton and welbeck(about 1000 voters)
plus 450 max(welbeck bit gained is an ex pit village so i would expect lower)
retford 4528
=15688
1300 lower than notional
Only just spotted that this MP held his % and vote and actually increased his majority!
Was it down to John Mann’s vociferous campaigns against MPs’ expense scandals and so on?
The Tories have lost control of the Council, as Cllr Bill Graham has been suspended for non-attendance.
A by-election will now be held next month in Worksop.
http://www.worksopguardian.co.uk/news/local-news/tories_lose_their_majority_1_2877446
as live in this seat i thought i give basic ward info
worksop south east
contains a manton and and a fair bit of farmland plus woodland with the odd big house and farms
also this where the golf courses are.
very safe labour due to its strong mining hertage (it was built to house miners) plus this area has never really picked itself from the closeure of the pits.
low wage jobs(who have done well from tax credits min wage) + high umpolyment will keep this red for a long time to come.
worksop east
contains kilton and bracebridge and like the south east contains a fair bit of farmland including a very posh hamlet in scofton.
bassetlaw hospital is in this ward providing a large number of jobs to worksop.
this ward seat has a a fair bit of rebuild but mostly consising of old poeple flats and small 3 bedromm houses. while this seat couple of middle class looking streets(mostly in kilton) this area will very strongly red
if not quite as much as the south east.
worksop east i should have said has very simlar problems to the south east e.g low wage,high umpolyment lots of old ex miners