Bassetlaw
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16803 (33.89%)
Labour: 25018 (50.46%)
Liberal Democrat: 5570 (11.24%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.59%)
Independent: 407 (0.82%)
Majority: 8215 (16.57%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 25057 (51%)
Conservative: 16932 (34.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6828 (13.9%)
Other: 304 (0.6%)
Majority: 8126 (16.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12010 (29.8%)
Labour: 22847 (56.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5485 (13.6%)
Majority: 10837 (26.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11758 (30.2%)
Labour: 21506 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4942 (12.7%)
Other: 689 (1.8%)
Majority: 9748 (25.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11838 (24.7%)
Labour: 29298 (61.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4950 (10.3%)
Referendum: 1838 (3.8%)
Majority: 17460 (36.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: John Mann(Labour) Born 1960, Leeds. Educated at Bradford Grammar School and Manchester University. Former trade union officer. Former Lambeth councillor. MP for Bassetlaw since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
Keith Girling (Conservative) Born 1959, Nottingham. Educated at Manvers Pierrepont Comprehensive. Former non-commissioned officer in the Grenadier Guards. Nottinghamshire county councillor.John Mann(Labour) Born 1960, Leeds. Educated at Bradford Grammar School and Manchester University. Former trade union officer. Former Lambeth councillor. MP for Bassetlaw since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
David Dobbie (Liberal Democrat) Supply teacher. Contested Bassetlaw 2005.
Andrea Hamilton (UKIP) Grahame Whitehurst (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 98891
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 2.5%
White: 98.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 81.7%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 13.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.4%
Owner-Occupied: 70.7%
Social Housing: 20.3% (Council: 18.3%, Housing Ass.: 1.9%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
I see that Graham was the councillor for Worksop North East, which has been won by the Tories in most recent elections, but never by a significant majority. I assume that it’s a likely Labour gain, particularly if the Lib Dems were to stand.
worksop north east,north and north west are 3 wards that are very much a like with a solid labour core while outer new builds are more mixed or even tory esp past raymoth lane.labour problem until recently has been getting this core vote out at local elections which has let the torries in the past. these 3 wards have long tern tory propects as there are more new builds planned and as the villages of shireoaks and rhodesia turn from pit to commuter .
yep lab gain at the byelection is my guess too.
south worksop
this where worksop best housing is and its has been the best ward for the torries. however like most wards in worksop 20 to 30% work in the pubic plus as you get closer to worksop south east or worksop north west the ward becomes a lot less tory and more labour..this expains why the torries only won by 223 at 2010 local election and why they lost the recent byelection now that labour are getting there core vote out at local elections again.
the ward also has fair of framland which gives it room for growing
the torries are bit lucky this year 3 of there weakest seats worksop north,retford west and retford south are not up for election this year
still i would expect labour to take the following
carlton
retford north
and have a high chance of getting
worksop south
retford east
depending on who running a fair chance of winning
welbeck
ranskill
As already mentioned there’s a by-election in Bassetlaw DC, Worksop North East on 10th February. These are the previous results for the ward:
2006: Con 832, Lab 807
2007: Lab 905, Con 816
2008: Con 926, Lab 813
2010: Lab 2110, Con 1184
The Conservatives are defending the seat because their councillor, Bill Graham, who was elected in 2008 by 53.25% to 46.75%, didn’t attend meetings for 6 months.
And a thumping win for Labour it has been. As has been shown on the main thread tonight (about Labour’s 9% lead in the YouGov poll), Labour didn’t just gain the seat, but gained 74% of the vote on a 30% swing since 2008. The Lib Dems polled only 28 votes compared to just under 1,200 for Labour.
LAB 1198, CON 317, IND 75 LD 28. Swing C>L – ’10: 13.2%, ’08: 30.5%, ’07: 24.6%.
Very poor vote for the Tories as well.
Definitely does appear to be a shift to Labour in the Midlands and North
I think results like this are also caused by Tories who aren’t particularly enthusiastic about coming out to vote at the moment. The LD vote is embarrassing; what you might call a friends and family performance.
Congratulations Merseymike.
Poor result for the Tories.
The Tories are clearing up the mess at the moment – that’s their job.
If they get it right, the rewards are likely to be there in 2015, but I don’t think Bassetlaw will be one of the C winners.
Clearly not Joe – it is in a sense true that Labour will derive more satisfaction from a gain in a key seat than one such as this, which clearly has to be classified as safe for John Mann after his excellent performance last year. There are by-elections however coming up in more interesting constituencies than this – for example Burnley, and I think Stockton South – but nevertheless the WWC demographic is almost universal in the ward Labour won last night, and the result is bound to be cheered in party circles. It is after all a Tory council at present which Labour will want to regain, and regain well.
Firstly thanks to Myth for his ward descriptions.
The result was as expected showing the dramatic reversal of fortunes in Bassetlaw since 2008.
As Barnaby says this is a strongly WWC ward and as I’ve said before the posh boy coalition leadership doesn’t connect in such areas.
The forest selloff idea was probably the icing on the cake as well in an area which is heavily wooded with legends of WWC resistance against outside upper classes.
In fact with this result the Conservatives no longer have an outright majority on the Council, but retain parity with 24 out of 48 seats.
How many do Labour have now? It hadn’t looked likely that Labour could win control of Bassetlaw this May as it only elects by thirds, but there have been two or three by-election losses now so I would have thought it’s quite likely (but without knowing off-hand how many vulnerable seats the Tories are defending this May – some of the seats which were vulnerable may be amongst earlier by-election losses and if that includes Worksop South then that could actually be regained)
The only other councillors are three independents, so I presume it’s now 21 Labour. Presumably it’s highly likely that Labour will win control – 2007 was a very good year for the Conservatives.
Carlton and East Retford North were Labour last year and Conservative in 2010, so they look to be near-certain gains.
East Retford East only had a small Conservative majority in 2010, so that’s another target, while Worksop South went Labour in last year’s by-election, so they must have a good chance of gaining another seat there, too.
That should read that Carlton and East Retford North were Conservative in 2007, but Labour in 2010
Yeah I wasn’t sure if the Worksop South seat was the one that was up this year in which case Labour would have a dificult defence there as even when Labour are doing very well it’s a difficult ward for them to win (though on last night’s swing and obviously the fact they gained it in a by-election last year they would have a decent chance)
2007 locals
Con won 8 wards, Lab 6, 1 Indy
The 2007 majority in the 8 Tory wards:
East Markham 67%*
Blyth 49.48%*
Ranskill 35.04%
East Retford East 34.94%*
Worksop South 34,92%*
East Retford North 22.72%*
Welbeck 18.28%*
Carlton 4.1%*
* Con-Lab direct contests.
In 2010
Labour won 2 of those 8 wards:
Carlton (9.62% maj)
East Retford North (15.52)
while the Tories held
East Retford East (9.9%)
Worksop South (6.5%)
The rest wasn’t up for election
There has been a byelection in Worksop South (gained by Labour) but for the seat elected in 2008
Labour needs 4 more councillors.
East Retford North and Carlton were won last year. Worksop South this year. If they can confirm those wins, they need 1 more. I would guess East Retford East or Welbeck is the next tranche
I would expect Labour to regain Bassetlaw quite easily in May,
even well before this result.
Well not easily given the info Andrea has very usefully provided. And if they hadn’t had this by-election gain (which presumably was for a seat that would otherwise not have been up until 2012) then I think they would have really struggled. They need to get two seats out of Worksop South, Retford East and Welbeck and I don;t think that’s easy for them
Maybe,
perhaps when the 2008 seats come up though,
the losses are surely going to be quite enormous.
I find it frustrating that they are benefiting poltically from the extraordinary mess they left.
An obesity range spending spree which others are having to fix.
But it’s not unexpected, and expect C to be 15-20% behind sometime in the next year – 18 months.
After that, though, things could change.
I think there is more split voting between Con and Lab in an older industrial area like Bassetlaw.
Not easy, Pete but I’d say a lot more likely than not. The 2010 majority in East Retford East (the only Retford ward won by the Tories last year) was about 300, similar to Worksop South. The Tories would have to do far better than they have been doing in this particularly borough to avoid losing all 3. It’s interesting to look at the East Retford ward results last year; the town has generally been thought to have marginal characteristics, but judging from 2010 it’s starting to look like a Labour-inclined town in all but a disastrous year of 2008/1983 type.
When Joe talked of Labour gaining the borough ‘quite easily’ it could be taken in two ways. One meaning might be that they would gain it with a comfortable majority and this is certainly unlikely. He may alternatively have meant that they would find it easy to win a bare majority of 1 seat.
I don’t think it is necessarily as easy as that for reasons given. We all know how well Labour held up here in 2010 in the general election and the boost in turnout will clearly have helped them to do as well as they did in somewhere like Worksop South. Now subsequent by-elections have shown big subsequent swings to Labour, so differential turnout may not be a problem for them, but still the 2010 results slightly flatter them and seats like that may not be as easy to gain as appearances suggest.
My main observation though was that without having gained two seats in by-elections, Labour would have needed 6 gains to take control this May and that would not have been plausible at all, so they are fortunate in having had these which looks likely to bring forward their taking control from 2012 to this year (it would have been inevitable in 2012)
Actually I think the present political split is 23-22-3.
I don’t think there’s any doubt that Labour will take overall control in May.
Its interesting that some of the places where the Conservatives did best in the local elections before 2010 had the most disappointing Conservative general elections results:
Bassetlaw
Tynemouth
Wallasay
Birmingham
Ealing N
Wakefield
Likewise Mark Senior expected Newcastle N to be the most likely LibDem gain from their strong local performances.
Any suggestions as to where Labour will overachieve locally but disappoint at the next general election?
Stevenage for one, where they overachieved in local elections even when they were in government. Other new towns like Harlow and Crawley possibly the same
I should think it probably didn;’t help the Tories to stand a progressive councillor from St Anns in Nottingham.
Yes considering the Labour vote has been stable here since 2001 it’s interesting people didn’t turnout so much in council elections for Labour until now.
current council is con 23 lab 22 indy 3 there seemed to be some errors on the site about the make up of the council. i going to stick my neck out a bit and predict may locals at con 18-20 lab 25-27 indy 3
“Likewise Mark Senior expected Newcastle N to be the most likely LibDem gain from their strong local performances.”
I think we were used to see LD strong local presence not translating into parliamentary success in many areas.
To Mark’s “defence”, I confess I had Newcastle North as a potential LD gain too (before Clegg’s surge)
“Any suggestions as to where Labour will overachieve locally but disappoint at the next general election?”
I guess it will be in areas where differential turnout plays a big part into local election results.
Maybe linked to the demographics….middle classe swing voters happily sitting at home during mid terms elections but not necessarily abondoning party X when it matters (GE)?
pleased to say, Andrea, Newcastle North was one of the seats which I did get right. There were plenty of incorrect forecasts from me (and Shaun Bennett, whose forecasts were often very similar to mine).
Barnaby, I didn’t make any “official” prediction here. However I had some seats in mind as potential LD gains while thinking other targets were more likely to be held by Labour.
Then the Cleggmania came and confounded everything. However I recall I had Newcastle North down as a potential gain while City of Durham was more a Lab hold in my mind.
Myth, with respect you aren’t really sticking your neck out very much predicting a range of outcomes of between 3 and 5 Labour gains when at least 2 gains are certain and more than 5 is virtually impossible
I never did think this widespread list of predicted LD gains from Labour would come off,
although Redcar came from nowhere (although I did see the betting on it).
I always thought some Lab/LD/Abstainers would rally to Labour for the very reason that defeat was a serious threat – unlike 2001/5.
yes pete you are correct i have given myself too much room
lab 27
con 18
indy 3
order of likely gains
retford north
carlton
worksop south
retford east
welbeck
local results for retford in 1983 one month before the 1983 ger election
only 3 wards back than but on same area
north con 1088
lab 939
sdp 290
west lab 1436
lab 1169
con 968
con 872
sdp 323
east con 1390
lab 1059
sdp 267
con maj in retford 12(using frist place) i dont think torrries would have won in 1983 using 2010 seat also its shows not as tory as some think..i will cofess the results would have been worthwhile if it had taken place on the same day as the ger.
Joe Ashton had a big personal vote (just like his successor seems to have).
In 1983 there was still a lot of mining here.
In the miners’ strike, most Bassetlaw miners took the Scargill/NUM side, unlike the areas further south in Nottinghamshire. This would have led to Labour holding their vote better here in 1987 than in Mansfield, Ashfield and Sherwood.
retford wards
retford is a very mixed town with 25 to 30% pubic sector workers and up to 25% council housing
east retford has a rural element with a couple of hamlets it also a few more ab class making it more tory
west retford once a place in itself has the same amount of abs but not the rural which makes tory in a good year and lab in bad.
north and south retford are labour bests ward torries do win here when the core labour vote does not turn out.
at a ge retford labour normaly leads tory
Misterton cc wards
misterton
used to have a small boat shipyard is the most labour of the 5 wards (maybe be even at the last ge)
sutton and Ranskill
both these wards have had lib dem c,s in the past i would expect to be fairly safe tory now with ranskill been a labour long shot.
Beckingham+Clayworth
very rural very tory
1979 local results v 2010 local results i have put the wards together to remove boundary changes
retford
year 1979
lab 5448 49%con 4258 39%lib 1316 12%
total 11022
year 2010
lab 5220 50% con 4512 43%lib 515 5%bnp 282 2%
total 10529
worksop 1979
lab 12187 57% con 6917 32% indy 2242 11%
total 21346
worksop 2010
lab 12398 63% con 5883 30% indy 893 5% lib 386 2%
total 19560
i got it spot on lol
yes pete you are correct i have given myself too much room
lab 27
con 18
indy 3
order of likely gains
retford north
carlton
worksop south
retford east
welbeck
February 13th, 2011 at 10:07 pm