Bassetlaw
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16803 (33.89%)
Labour: 25018 (50.46%)
Liberal Democrat: 5570 (11.24%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.59%)
Independent: 407 (0.82%)
Majority: 8215 (16.57%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 25057 (51%)
Conservative: 16932 (34.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6828 (13.9%)
Other: 304 (0.6%)
Majority: 8126 (16.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12010 (29.8%)
Labour: 22847 (56.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5485 (13.6%)
Majority: 10837 (26.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11758 (30.2%)
Labour: 21506 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4942 (12.7%)
Other: 689 (1.8%)
Majority: 9748 (25.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11838 (24.7%)
Labour: 29298 (61.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4950 (10.3%)
Referendum: 1838 (3.8%)
Majority: 17460 (36.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: John Mann(Labour) Born 1960, Leeds. Educated at Bradford Grammar School and Manchester University. Former trade union officer. Former Lambeth councillor. MP for Bassetlaw since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
Keith Girling (Conservative) Born 1959, Nottingham. Educated at Manvers Pierrepont Comprehensive. Former non-commissioned officer in the Grenadier Guards. Nottinghamshire county councillor.John Mann(Labour) Born 1960, Leeds. Educated at Bradford Grammar School and Manchester University. Former trade union officer. Former Lambeth councillor. MP for Bassetlaw since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
David Dobbie (Liberal Democrat) Supply teacher. Contested Bassetlaw 2005.
Andrea Hamilton (UKIP) Grahame Whitehurst (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 98891
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 2.5%
White: 98.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 81.7%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 13.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.4%
Owner-Occupied: 70.7%
Social Housing: 20.3% (Council: 18.3%, Housing Ass.: 1.9%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
In Gloucester on paper the Tories only need to lose 1 seat to lose control. But I think that all the wards they hold this year are actually quite secure because the marginals are all in Lib-Con wards. I don’t think there are any Lab-Con contests there this year are there? I may be wrong, so if you know of any, please do let me know.
St Albans is another of those where I was unaware of the double vacany in London Colney and I agree that the Tories are likely to lose both. I think potential gains are there though in Park Street, Ashley, Marshalwick North, Marshalwick South, St Peters and Verulam. They should be able to pick up at least a couple of those, I’d have thought.
Is Rochdale already under Labour control? Was that down to a defection or by-election? I missed that one. Never mind, one less Labour gain on the night
Swindon I was unsure about because whilst the Tories would hold it easily if a third of the seats had been up, the boundary changes make it much more difficult because its all out. I made the judgement that the Tories should probably still be about far enough ahead to hold their majority. But you’re right, thats another possibility.
Chorley actually isn’t as hard as you’d think. Labour only need about 4 seats. They will likely gain Clayton-le-woods North, Coppull and Euxton North. It all hinges on Wheelton and Withnell where they got 45% in a two way contest in 2008.
I should also mention that other Labour possibilities include Walsall and Sefton. Other than that, I think we’ve covered everything, Pete.
“In Gloucester on paper the Tories only need to lose 1 seat to lose control. But I think that all the wards they hold this year are actually quite secure because the marginals are all in Lib-Con wards. I don’t think there are any Lab-Con contests there this year are there? I may be wrong, so if you know of any, please do let me know.”
Tuffley
“St Albans … I think potential gains are there though in Park Street, Ashley, Marshalwick North, Marshalwick South, St Peters and Verulam.”
Yes they are all potential gains and Verulam and Marshalswick South on recent form would be the low hanging fruit. Ashley and St Peters would not ordinarily be good Tory prospects and in Ashley at least Labour would have a better chance of gaining now. St Peters will most likely be held by the Green who won the casual vacancy last year. Marshalswick North and Park Street are both reasonable prospects but the LDs probably got a shock last year in both and won’t be caught napping this time, assuming they have enough activists to cover things. I’m not saying the Conservatives can’t gain control. I think they’ll make the two gains in Verulam and Marshalswick South and there are enough other possibilities that the chances are one more may come off. Its just that before the second seat in London Colney became vacanct I think it was far more likely than not – now it is a much trickier prospect.
Rochdale went to Labour control shortly after the local elections last year IIRC, There have been masses of defections from the LDs in all kinds of directions.
Re: Chorley. The seat the Conservatives won in Wheelton in 2008 has already been gained by Labour in a by-election since then. Therefore they still need four on top of that. I agree they will win the other thre you mention, but can’t see where the other gain would come from
“I should also mention that other Labour possibilities include Walsall and Sefton. Other than that, I think we’ve covered everything, Pete.”
Yes I hadn’t noticed that you’d missed those off. Dudley is a slightly more remote possibility – again a double vacancy gives the Conservatives a bit more of a headache than they would otherwise have
I didn’t know this years Wheelton ward had already been won by Labour Pete. In that case, I’d take Chorley off the list, because as you say, Labour have three fairly easy gains there but not the fourth this year.
I can’t remember how Tuffley in Gloucester voted recently, but on 2008 figures due to an Independent coming second, it didn’t look a particularly good Labour prospect.
I agree re: St Albans and Rochdale.
Dudley looks far too difficult for Labour to me. Based on recent results, the Conservatives wouldn’t even lose control and Labour have quite a bit better to do to take it (about 9 seats isn’t it?) I think that it will remain Conservative, but will only go NOC at worst.
The Labour win in Sefton if they take it (I think they’ll end up one or two seats short actually) but that would be the first time ever if they did it.
So overall then we’re looking at change of councils as follows:
Lab up around 30
Cons down around 4
LD down none.
Of course, the council wards total will look worse for the coalition.
I think the LDs will ‘lose’ Cambridge Shaun even if they retain defacto control with half the seats (21/42).
They could lose Market ward to Labour.
I also agree with everything you said about Bassetlaw.
It has had historically below average swings (so I’d expect the Labour vote to go up 2% less than average here at the next election).
I hope they do A. Cairns. Any Lib Dem controlled council is a stain on our political landscape, in my view.
But when I looked at the wards, I found myself leaving them with a majority of one seat. If they were to do significantly worse in wards they won last year or maybe lost a ward like Queen Edith’s to the Tories, then that would push it over the edge into NOC. I’d have thought the odds were on balalnce against it however.
“Any Lib Dem controlled council is a stain on our political landscape, in my view”.
Given Labour’s record since they recaptured Chesterfield last year I’d sooner have the Lib Dems back any day.
i still think there is long term hope for cons in bassetlaw as long as they can get people like me back so just writing bassetlaw as “oh its safe labour they should not have lost them wards (worksop norths and retford) in the first place is a bit over the top(ok i admit my predictions can,t have helped). There is a lot of new build in worksop and retford with a lot of mortgage holders( a group the cons won by 7%in 2010)As these areas age i would expect the amount of outright owners(a group the cons won by 20%)to go up also with all the new and planned build there is bound to be boundary changes in next few years which could help(or hinder them).If i were a bassetlaw tory the ward i have put my efforts into”finding out where we going wrong” is worksop south.When i wrote my ward reports i had not realised the last boundary change had took the best labour area out of this ward leaving a ward with following demographs -homeowers(outright and mort)85%-private renters 10%-social housing 5%-abc1 57 v 43 c2de also public sector at 27% a little high but still you would cons to win this most years. i note that i am using 2001 data but i don,t expect much change in this ward in the 2011 data when it comes out.
“Given Labour’s record since they recaptured Chesterfield last year I’d sooner have the Lib Dems back any day.”
You’ve changed your tune
“i still think there is long term hope for cons in bassetlaw as long as they can get people like me back”
Certainly the demographic and electoral trends are pro Conservative but can I ask what has turned you UKIP myth?
““i still think there is long term hope for cons in bassetlaw as long as they can get people like me back”
Undoubtedly yes. But I’m afraid the 2005 and 2010 election results here have been significantly worse than average so I fear a Tory victory may have been pushed back somewhat.
Its not a DC kind of place. Had David Davies been in charge we would have been closer here (we wouldnt have won though). DD wouldnt have taken Winchester Harrogate or Richmond though, and probably not the Cornwall seats
A Tory win here wont happen before John Mann retires.
I wish I’d seen that before I put money on a Conservative win last time. I was expecting at least a NE Derbyshire type creditable performance from my party here.
John Mann is certainly one of the most overhyped members of the present house yes. I’m not sure what ACTUAL personal vote he has however. I suspect its not as much as he thinks.
I don’t see why DD wouldn’t have won Harrogate, especially, or Winchester and Richmond Park must have been more to do with Zac than Cam when you look at the dismal Conservative performance in the other LD seats in south-west London.
And there’s certainly no reason why DD would have done any worse in Cornwall, its hardly metropolitan metrosexual territory is it.
The ONLY constituency which Cameron won for the Cosnervatives was Oxford West, and that because he was the neighbouring MP.
Under David Davis the Tories wouldn’t have won any of those seats.
His pointless and absurd resignation from the shadow cabinet to re-fight his own seatshowed him to a vain, deluded self publicist with dreadful judgement. He would have been an appalling leader and could not have prevented the Labour government being re-elected.
Well if DD had been leader he wouldn’t have needed to resign would he.
I really can’t blame anyone who had had to put up with Cameron, Osborne and their lackeys from walking out.
Perseverence and putting up with things you don’t like is part of life, and essential in a leader.
It’s not that DD walked out, it’s the way he did it by causing a completely unnecessary by-election in his own seat in order to massage his ego by being massively re-elected.
Don’t get me wrong, I think it was a great shame as DD could have been a good Home Secretary. But party leader or prime minister – never.
I think David Davis would have been able to increase the Tory vote from 33% to 37%. David Cameron’s purported appeal was that he could raise it much futher than that – to 40% and beyond.
“Perseverence and putting up with things you don’t like is part of life, and essential in a leader.”
Cameron shows no sign of those abilities.
And DD wasn’t the leader so he had no obligation to show them.
Having seen the reality of the incompetance Cameron and Osborne produced firstly during the banking crisis, then during the election campaign and now during government any competant person might feel entitled to walk out.
Local election results from 1998, 1999 and 2000:
http://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/73165/response/179440/attach/3/1998%201999%202000%20district%20results.pdf