Bassetlaw
2010 Results:
Conservative: 16803 (33.89%)
Labour: 25018 (50.46%)
Liberal Democrat: 5570 (11.24%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.59%)
Independent: 407 (0.82%)
Majority: 8215 (16.57%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 25057 (51%)
Conservative: 16932 (34.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6828 (13.9%)
Other: 304 (0.6%)
Majority: 8126 (16.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12010 (29.8%)
Labour: 22847 (56.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5485 (13.6%)
Majority: 10837 (26.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11758 (30.2%)
Labour: 21506 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4942 (12.7%)
Other: 689 (1.8%)
Majority: 9748 (25.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11838 (24.7%)
Labour: 29298 (61.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4950 (10.3%)
Referendum: 1838 (3.8%)
Majority: 17460 (36.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: John Mann(Labour) Born 1960, Leeds. Educated at Bradford Grammar School and Manchester University. Former trade union officer. Former Lambeth councillor. MP for Bassetlaw since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
Keith Girling (Conservative) Born 1959, Nottingham. Educated at Manvers Pierrepont Comprehensive. Former non-commissioned officer in the Grenadier Guards. Nottinghamshire county councillor.John Mann(Labour) Born 1960, Leeds. Educated at Bradford Grammar School and Manchester University. Former trade union officer. Former Lambeth councillor. MP for Bassetlaw since 2001 (more information at They work for you)
David Dobbie (Liberal Democrat) Supply teacher. Contested Bassetlaw 2005.
Andrea Hamilton (UKIP) Grahame Whitehurst (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 98891
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 2.5%
White: 98.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 81.7%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 13.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.4%
Owner-Occupied: 70.7%
Social Housing: 20.3% (Council: 18.3%, Housing Ass.: 1.9%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
In Gloucester on paper the Tories only need to lose 1 seat to lose control. But I think that all the wards they hold this year are actually quite secure because the marginals are all in Lib-Con wards. I don’t think there are any Lab-Con contests there this year are there? I may be wrong, so if you know of any, please do let me know.
St Albans is another of those where I was unaware of the double vacany in London Colney and I agree that the Tories are likely to lose both. I think potential gains are there though in Park Street, Ashley, Marshalwick North, Marshalwick South, St Peters and Verulam. They should be able to pick up at least a couple of those, I’d have thought.
Is Rochdale already under Labour control? Was that down to a defection or by-election? I missed that one. Never mind, one less Labour gain on the night
Swindon I was unsure about because whilst the Tories would hold it easily if a third of the seats had been up, the boundary changes make it much more difficult because its all out. I made the judgement that the Tories should probably still be about far enough ahead to hold their majority. But you’re right, thats another possibility.
Chorley actually isn’t as hard as you’d think. Labour only need about 4 seats. They will likely gain Clayton-le-woods North, Coppull and Euxton North. It all hinges on Wheelton and Withnell where they got 45% in a two way contest in 2008.
I should also mention that other Labour possibilities include Walsall and Sefton. Other than that, I think we’ve covered everything, Pete.
“In Gloucester on paper the Tories only need to lose 1 seat to lose control. But I think that all the wards they hold this year are actually quite secure because the marginals are all in Lib-Con wards. I don’t think there are any Lab-Con contests there this year are there? I may be wrong, so if you know of any, please do let me know.”
Tuffley
“St Albans … I think potential gains are there though in Park Street, Ashley, Marshalwick North, Marshalwick South, St Peters and Verulam.”
Yes they are all potential gains and Verulam and Marshalswick South on recent form would be the low hanging fruit. Ashley and St Peters would not ordinarily be good Tory prospects and in Ashley at least Labour would have a better chance of gaining now. St Peters will most likely be held by the Green who won the casual vacancy last year. Marshalswick North and Park Street are both reasonable prospects but the LDs probably got a shock last year in both and won’t be caught napping this time, assuming they have enough activists to cover things. I’m not saying the Conservatives can’t gain control. I think they’ll make the two gains in Verulam and Marshalswick South and there are enough other possibilities that the chances are one more may come off. Its just that before the second seat in London Colney became vacanct I think it was far more likely than not – now it is a much trickier prospect.
Rochdale went to Labour control shortly after the local elections last year IIRC, There have been masses of defections from the LDs in all kinds of directions.
Re: Chorley. The seat the Conservatives won in Wheelton in 2008 has already been gained by Labour in a by-election since then. Therefore they still need four on top of that. I agree they will win the other thre you mention, but can’t see where the other gain would come from
“I should also mention that other Labour possibilities include Walsall and Sefton. Other than that, I think we’ve covered everything, Pete.”
Yes I hadn’t noticed that you’d missed those off. Dudley is a slightly more remote possibility – again a double vacancy gives the Conservatives a bit more of a headache than they would otherwise have
I didn’t know this years Wheelton ward had already been won by Labour Pete. In that case, I’d take Chorley off the list, because as you say, Labour have three fairly easy gains there but not the fourth this year.
I can’t remember how Tuffley in Gloucester voted recently, but on 2008 figures due to an Independent coming second, it didn’t look a particularly good Labour prospect.
I agree re: St Albans and Rochdale.
Dudley looks far too difficult for Labour to me. Based on recent results, the Conservatives wouldn’t even lose control and Labour have quite a bit better to do to take it (about 9 seats isn’t it?) I think that it will remain Conservative, but will only go NOC at worst.
The Labour win in Sefton if they take it (I think they’ll end up one or two seats short actually) but that would be the first time ever if they did it.
So overall then we’re looking at change of councils as follows:
Lab up around 30
Cons down around 4
LD down none.
Of course, the council wards total will look worse for the coalition.
I think the LDs will ‘lose’ Cambridge Shaun even if they retain defacto control with half the seats (21/42).
They could lose Market ward to Labour.
I also agree with everything you said about Bassetlaw.
It has had historically below average swings (so I’d expect the Labour vote to go up 2% less than average here at the next election).
I hope they do A. Cairns. Any Lib Dem controlled council is a stain on our political landscape, in my view.
But when I looked at the wards, I found myself leaving them with a majority of one seat. If they were to do significantly worse in wards they won last year or maybe lost a ward like Queen Edith’s to the Tories, then that would push it over the edge into NOC. I’d have thought the odds were on balalnce against it however.
“Any Lib Dem controlled council is a stain on our political landscape, in my view”.
Given Labour’s record since they recaptured Chesterfield last year I’d sooner have the Lib Dems back any day.
i still think there is long term hope for cons in bassetlaw as long as they can get people like me back so just writing bassetlaw as “oh its safe labour they should not have lost them wards (worksop norths and retford) in the first place is a bit over the top(ok i admit my predictions can,t have helped). There is a lot of new build in worksop and retford with a lot of mortgage holders( a group the cons won by 7%in 2010)As these areas age i would expect the amount of outright owners(a group the cons won by 20%)to go up also with all the new and planned build there is bound to be boundary changes in next few years which could help(or hinder them).If i were a bassetlaw tory the ward i have put my efforts into”finding out where we going wrong” is worksop south.When i wrote my ward reports i had not realised the last boundary change had took the best labour area out of this ward leaving a ward with following demographs -homeowers(outright and mort)85%-private renters 10%-social housing 5%-abc1 57 v 43 c2de also public sector at 27% a little high but still you would cons to win this most years. i note that i am using 2001 data but i don,t expect much change in this ward in the 2011 data when it comes out.
“Given Labour’s record since they recaptured Chesterfield last year I’d sooner have the Lib Dems back any day.”
You’ve changed your tune
“i still think there is long term hope for cons in bassetlaw as long as they can get people like me back”
Certainly the demographic and electoral trends are pro Conservative but can I ask what has turned you UKIP myth?
““i still think there is long term hope for cons in bassetlaw as long as they can get people like me back”
Undoubtedly yes. But I’m afraid the 2005 and 2010 election results here have been significantly worse than average so I fear a Tory victory may have been pushed back somewhat.
Its not a DC kind of place. Had David Davies been in charge we would have been closer here (we wouldnt have won though). DD wouldnt have taken Winchester Harrogate or Richmond though, and probably not the Cornwall seats
A Tory win here wont happen before John Mann retires.
I wish I’d seen that before I put money on a Conservative win last time. I was expecting at least a NE Derbyshire type creditable performance from my party here.
John Mann is certainly one of the most overhyped members of the present house yes. I’m not sure what ACTUAL personal vote he has however. I suspect its not as much as he thinks.
I don’t see why DD wouldn’t have won Harrogate, especially, or Winchester and Richmond Park must have been more to do with Zac than Cam when you look at the dismal Conservative performance in the other LD seats in south-west London.
And there’s certainly no reason why DD would have done any worse in Cornwall, its hardly metropolitan metrosexual territory is it.
The ONLY constituency which Cameron won for the Cosnervatives was Oxford West, and that because he was the neighbouring MP.
Under David Davis the Tories wouldn’t have won any of those seats.
His pointless and absurd resignation from the shadow cabinet to re-fight his own seatshowed him to a vain, deluded self publicist with dreadful judgement. He would have been an appalling leader and could not have prevented the Labour government being re-elected.
Well if DD had been leader he wouldn’t have needed to resign would he.
I really can’t blame anyone who had had to put up with Cameron, Osborne and their lackeys from walking out.
Perseverence and putting up with things you don’t like is part of life, and essential in a leader.
It’s not that DD walked out, it’s the way he did it by causing a completely unnecessary by-election in his own seat in order to massage his ego by being massively re-elected.
Don’t get me wrong, I think it was a great shame as DD could have been a good Home Secretary. But party leader or prime minister – never.
I think David Davis would have been able to increase the Tory vote from 33% to 37%. David Cameron’s purported appeal was that he could raise it much futher than that – to 40% and beyond.
“Perseverence and putting up with things you don’t like is part of life, and essential in a leader.”
Cameron shows no sign of those abilities.
And DD wasn’t the leader so he had no obligation to show them.
Having seen the reality of the incompetance Cameron and Osborne produced firstly during the banking crisis, then during the election campaign and now during government any competant person might feel entitled to walk out.
Local election results from 1998, 1999 and 2000:
http://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/73165/response/179440/attach/3/1998%201999%202000%20district%20results.pdf
The BBC are reporting that John Mann had the wheel nuts on his car removed.
He drove 200 miles from London to his Nottinghamshire constituency before discovering one of his car’s wheels had almost fallen off.
Mann commented that: “It may well have been the work of a thief who was interrupted. But I find it strange that the hub caps were put back on, meaning I couldn’t tell that anything was wrong.”
Obviously there’s no prizes for guessing who was behind that and shows the risk people take when they take on the rich and the powerful
Is your middle name foil hat Tim?
You surprise me Pete
Anyone with a brain cell can see what this is all about and sadly I fear it will achieve the perpetrator’s aim of making people think twice before they go after the rich and powerful
This MP already received a dead bird in the post
That was clearly a warning, and I for one am glad that Mr Man escaped with his life
Next time he might not be so lucky
Forgive me, but it does sound more than a little paranoic.
Why on earth would anyone want to kill John Mann?
Who on earth is John Mann?
John Mann was critical of American attempts to shakedown British banks.
Why do you think American business pays protection moeny err I mean ‘campaign contributions’ to American politicians.
So what is the theory then Richard, that it is the CIA trying to kill him, or some ‘Mr Big’ with a white cat on his lap sitting in some big American corporate office?
Or maybe its aliens?
Why on earth would anyone care what John Mann says on the matter…or indeed on *any* matter? Certainly why should they care THAT much? He’s only a backbench MP you know.
Im with Tim on this. I think its likely someone wanted to give him a scare. I doubt anyone would want to do worse than that, as Shaun says hes not hugely important in a wider sense.
Either that or he made it up to get sympathy for his position and to further attack NI.
‘Why on earth would anyone care what John Mann says on the matter…or indeed on *any* matter? Certainly why should they care THAT much? He’s only a backbench MP you know.’
And Tony Benn was only a left-wing Labour MP wuth no real chanbce of getting elected and yet if you believe the rumour mill, cerain Tory MPs wantred tro use their gangster friends to have him assassinated
That’s how many on the extreme Right (and the extreme Left) believe arguments are settled
I’d like to think Joe R is right – that it was only to scare him, – but given that it could easily have killed him, I very much doubt it
In my opinion it’s inconceivable that this isn’t linked to his role on the Treasury Select Committee
And how typical that’s it’s hardly got a mention in the right wing press
Nobody connected to the upper echelons of either Barclays or News International would be stupid enough to have anything to do with this.
As a way of scaring or killing someone it is clumsy and amateurish.
It will be the work of a crank.
Tim, once again you have a very one sided approach, don’t you.
You begin by talking about violence and murder being the tool of the extreme right. You then realised that you better mention the extreme left as well as an afterthought, although its clear it was really an after thought.
And then your begin extending the bounds of the extreme right to include Tory MPs and their ‘gangster friends’ (whoever they may be). And all the time, you never balance it out by telling us a bit more about the ‘extreme left’.
I’ll give it a go for you: Saying that you will have a party when a political opponent dies and calling on their ‘IRA friends’ to come and bomb the Conservative Party Conference. Extremism? The sort of thing you’d expect from the ‘extremist’ mainstream British Labour Party? Certyainly nobody has been disciplined for uttering such statements.
And then theres the ‘extremists’ who promote violence and intimidation to keep people in line during industrial disputes. Another tactic that was always first out of the arsenal of the mainstream left and which has never been rejected or apologised for.
Now I’m not trying to paint the mainstream left as supporting such extreme ideas, but merely to point out that such people exist accross the spectrum and that it is no reflection on the mainstream when the odd extremist pops up amongst them.
So why does Tim have to keep trying to make out that people like me are one step away from committing some form of atrocity or outrage because we are on the right?
‘Saying that you will have a party when a political opponent dies and calling on their ‘IRA friends’ to come and bomb the Conservative Party Conference. Extremism? The sort of thing you’d expect from the ‘extremist’ mainstream British Labour Party? Certyainly nobody has been disciplined for uttering such statements’
Clearly they should have been disciplined but I imagine the person saying these things was joking – like the odious Kenny Everett when he suggested nuking Russia
When a certain Tory MP was talking about assassinating Tony Benn he was being deadly serious. It might be cruel irony that he himself became a victim of an assassination, but such things, no matter who they are done by, but you can’t compare distatesful jokes to cold blooded plots to kill people because you hgappen to disagrree with them – whether they are perpertrated by the IRA or a Tory backbencher
That you try to does you no credit
Tim
Kenny Everett was a comedian, and comedians tell jokes. The fact that in the same routine he also said “let’s kick Michael Foot’s stick away” shows that he was not being in any way serious.
Little did he know how extremely close we actually did come to nuking Russia a couple of months later, during the disasterous Able Archer NATO exercise and false triggering of the Russian nuclear radars in November 1983.
We know now that the Russians actually considered jokes like Kenny Everett’s, and remarks like when Ronald Reagan promised to consign the USSR “to the ash heap of history”, to be serious threats of an impending first strike by NATO.
We actually only avoided a nuclear war by the skin of our teeth.
could have been his own side on the wheel nut issue his wife who is a local dc got a dead bird in the post from a former labour member who tryed to become a dc and was rejected by mrs mann on the grounds the way he looked too scuffy
Something like that is much more likely than Bob Diamond or Rupert Murdoch.
If they were responsible they would do it properly and without any fingerprints.
‘Something like that is much more likely than Bob Diamond or Rupert Murdoch.
If they were responsible they would do it properly and without any fingerprints.’
Sadly we’ll never know and Mann can only thank the luck of the God’s that he survived the attempted ‘hit’, but it does amuse me to hear Tory sympathisers suggesting it’s more likely to be from an enemy within rather than some of the much more likely suspects who some would argue have the contacts, money and more importantly the inclination to carry out such an act
One of those unsolved mysteries i suspect
The fact that Mann’s majority actually increased in 2005 suggests to me just how popular he is in Bassetlaw. Although the absence of a Socialist Labour candidate probably meant he picked up all those lose votes.
“I’ll give it a go for you: Saying that you will have a party when a political opponent dies and calling on their ‘IRA friends’ to come and bomb the Conservative Party Conference. Extremism? The sort of thing you’d expect from the ‘extremist’ mainstream British Labour Party? Certyainly nobody has been disciplined for uttering such statements.”
In fact the woman you refer to was not only “disciplined”, she was booted out of the party
The woman in question is still listed as a Labour councillor on Sunderland city council website (for it is our old friend the ‘floating voter’ known as Earthmother)
aw (i know its hard doing 503 seats lol)i think you got tory vote too high on the new seat boundaries. i think beckingham and sturton at the 2010 election would more likely voted like everton so i am looking at 1400 to 1500 tory votes (and a higer tournout then 56%)instead of 874.i know am nit picking but it could make a diff to sherwood if the new seats go ahead.i put the new tory vote at15300ish.
Bassetlaw 2015 most likely:
Lab 55 (+4)
Con 33 (-1)
LD 6 (-5)
others 6
Turnout 64%