Bassetlaw
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 25057 (51%)
Conservative: 16932 (34.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6828 (13.9%)
Other: 304 (0.6%)
Majority: 8126 (16.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12010 (29.8%)
Labour: 22847 (56.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5485 (13.6%)
Majority: 10837 (26.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11758 (30.2%)
Labour: 21506 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4942 (12.7%)
Other: 689 (1.8%)
Majority: 9748 (25.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11838 (24.7%)
Labour: 29298 (61.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4950 (10.3%)
Referendum: 1838 (3.8%)
Majority: 17460 (36.4%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: John Mann (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Keith Girling (Conservative)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 98891
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 2.5%
White: 98.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 81.7%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 13.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.4%
Owner-Occupied: 70.7%
Social Housing: 20.3% (Council: 18.3%, Housing Ass.: 1.9%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
It does appear that the working class electorate have finally woken up to the assumption Labour made before 1997 that they could take their core vote for granted, and go for policies that would gain the middle-classes, particularly in the South-East.
There seems to be a whole string of seats like this where people are beginning to anticipate “shock” results. But it’s actually a sea change in the political situation. The Welsh Euroresult is another indicator from a former industrial region.
To turn this round, Labour would have to rejuvenate industry. Not least, after the credit crunch I suspect the realistic voters in strong Labour ares have realised that you cannot long-term have social goods like schools and hospitals unless the Government is prepared to invest in industry, and in related areas such as research and development.
And for Labour to go into an election with anything like three million unemploymed will appall such voters.
This problem lands clearly in the remit of Lord Mandelson’s new megaDepartment. One doubts how much he can do in a year to develop policies that will retireve the electoral situation. And in addition one doubts how far a minister who comes from right inside the Westminster establishment, and has not for years had the grassroots perspective that a constituency provides, will see the need for high-tech industry rather than London and international based commerce and wheeler-dealing.
Some of us have been discussing the psephological implications of this elsewhere (see entries for the Pontypridd seat).
An intersting implication of this is that Labour may well lose some apparently very safe seats at the next election whilst keeping some seats which are notionally easier targets for the Tories, specifically ones with more of a middle-class/post-war privte box-type housing vote.
Joe
Retford has only the two CC divisions so for the third year in a row Retford was all blue on the election map.
The last two Labour district councillors are up for election in 2010, I wonder if Retford will become 100% Conservative that day.
Sid
The only part of Bassetlaw the Conservatives are failing to breakthrough in is the eastern part of Worksop. The Conservative vote there really stands out:
Blyth 1492
Misterton 3321
Retford E 1933
Retford W 1305
Tuxford 2511
Worksop E 527
Worksop N 1426
Worksop NE 1599
Worskop W 1403
I know that Worksop E CC division includes Manton pit village (from Worksop SE ward) and also some council estates (from Worksop E ward) but even so there doesn’t seem to be the same Conservative improvement as in the Harworth and Shireoaks areas.
Incidentally its interesting seeing some of the complacent Labour comments about this constituency from 2-3 years ago. I wonder what happened to Joe Dollin though?
John Mann has apparently spoilt his ballot paper for the speakership election, calling all the candidates “dismal.”
Well it takes one to know one.
I doubt many people regard Mann as inspiring in any way.
I’m not sure that’s fair; Mann was one of the main MP’s involved in the anti sleaze campaign, and in terms of trying to stop the Speaker and most of Parliament (at least in terms of Labour and Tories) using the Freedom of Information Act to stop publication of the dodgy expense claims in full.
Mann strikes me as being pretty independent minded and a decent constituency MP who may well have a presonal following limiting any swing against him.
Labour hold by about 4,000-4,500 from Con.
Michael S
Do you live in Bassetlaw?
No, and I’m commenting entirely from the outside.
Can assure you I’m not pro Labour either at the moment. It does seem to me that Mann sticks his head above the parapet more than virtually any other MP in terms of sleaze though.
If he is not a good constituency MP though, i entirely defer to those who’d know far better than me on that.