Comments on: Basingstoke

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 10:42:32 +0000

‘Somebody predicted a Lib Dem gain here back in April btw’

That is hilarious but this is yet another seat where Labour has slipped from challengers to third on almost less than 20% of the vote, despite boundary changes that should have been to their benefit

This urban seat perfectly illustrates just how unpopular Labour have (or should that be had) become in the south of England

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 01:19:57 +0000

(Somebody predicted a Lib Dem gain here back in April btw).

Hilarious.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Tue, 11 Jan 2011 01:17:06 +0000

I think the Tory share is just above 1992 here. (0.2%).
So it will be around 1.5% below 1987,
but above 1983 and 1979.

But there has been a lot of change in the constituency, and it’s within a margina of error,
so it’s difficult to prove.

This MP seems to be quite a rising star.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Fri, 08 Oct 2010 23:22:42 +0000

I may have over-stated it,
I think it does exist but it’s very variable.
It’s just that Robert seems to refer to it an awful lot as though it’s almost automatic.

It also depends on the type of election.
If people really want to change the government and you’re in a marginal seat, they may decide they have to harsh.

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Fri, 08 Oct 2010 23:17:59 +0000

I think it does exist, but of course some MPs have the reverse effect. For example, the always rather unclubbable & standoffish David Winnick may well have done worse than a new candidate would have done (sorry David).

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Fri, 08 Oct 2010 23:13:43 +0000

Absolutely most people vote for the party rather than the candidate, but this doesn’t mean that a minority don’t take into account the candidate. In most cases it won’t make a great deal of difference but in a few it may make quite a lot. Who believes for example that the Conservatives would have won Crewe & Nantwich in 2010 if Gwyneth Dunwoody was still the candidate? (it is possible I suppose but surely not by the margin they did win – double incumbency again – the loss of Dunwoody’s + a bit for Timpson). Cannock Chase is another one. I;d have expected a big swing there regardless, but would Labour have lost a third of their vote share if Tony Wright was still the candidate?

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Fri, 08 Oct 2010 23:07:00 +0000

Don’t you think it’s something people like to believe exists?
People are quite hard headed about it.
I’ve heard lots of stories of stories of Tories canvassing in 1997 where people said you’ve been a good MP but I’m sorry I’m just completely fed up with the Tories,
I’m sure the same happened to Labour in 2010.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Fri, 08 Oct 2010 23:04:36 +0000

I agree. He did quote some study by John Curtice and Michael Steed on the 1987 election where the Tory lead was on average 4% higher than ‘expected’ in seats where this double incumbency factor was at play. But it won;t necessarily have been the only factor and as it is an average then it would have been larger in some seats and perhaps neglible in others. In fact he mentions that there were 16 seats in the study and 11 of these showed some better than expected Tory result but that means that 5 of them did not.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Fri, 08 Oct 2010 22:54:29 +0000

I think he exaggerates double incumbency a bit sometimes.
No doubt it can be substantial in places – others not.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Sat, 10 Jul 2010 16:43:17 +0000

It may have been some incumbency effect. Certainly Mike Penning had made a good impression in Hemel and maybe Maria Miller, also first elected in 2005, did likewise here. In Harlow of course Bill Rammel may have enjoyed some incumbency boost (though obviously this wasn’t available to the Labour candidate in Crawley). Hemel in particular saw the ‘double-incumbency effect’ so beloved of Robert Waller, that is to say there was both the loss of the previous Labour MPs incumbency vote plus whatever incumbency effect Mike Penning had built up.