Comments on: Basingstoke

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Sat, 10 Jul 2010 16:43:17 +0000

It may have been some incumbency effect. Certainly Mike Penning had made a good impression in Hemel and maybe Maria Miller, also first elected in 2005, did likewise here. In Harlow of course Bill Rammel may have enjoyed some incumbency boost (though obviously this wasn’t available to the Labour candidate in Crawley). Hemel in particular saw the ‘double-incumbency effect’ so beloved of Robert Waller, that is to say there was both the loss of the previous Labour MPs incumbency vote plus whatever incumbency effect Mike Penning had built up.

By: Matt

Matt — Sat, 10 Jul 2010 16:34:56 +0000

I don’t think it was the major cause, it was just noticeable that Labour did so much worse in those 2 seats than the likes of Crawley and Harlow (where the swing to the Conservatives was less than in 2005)

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 23:15:54 +0000

yes, a weak second though.
I’m a little surprised the Tory vote rose this much,
I thought about 7-8%.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 23:07:22 +0000

I thought Labour would hold second place here.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 22:59:58 +0000

I doubt it was that.
Labour seemed to do particularly badly in New Towns which they didn’t win in 2005.

They may regain second though.

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 21:55:49 +0000

It’s hard to rule out entirely, but I think it wasn’t the major cause.

By: Matt

Matt — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 20:08:29 +0000

I hate to be the one to mention this, but does anyone think the ethnicity of the Labour candidate played a part here – as in Hemel Hempstead?

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 08:20:02 +0000

This was a truly rotten result for Labour, in a seat where they/we really ought to be competitive. Although Labour generally did poorly in Southern New Towns, this result stands out as a particularly bad one.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 27 Jun 2010 23:13:41 +0000

” PETE [Plopwell?]
With the recent jump in popularity in the Lib Dems – they have a good chance of being successful in this seat. They were a strong 2nd in the local elections and with polls showing a large swing to Lib Dems, coupled with the boundary changes, this may well become a Lib Dem seat.
”

lol !

By: John D

John D — Sat, 08 May 2010 14:36:53 +0000

Excellent Conservative result here.

50% of the vote… 13,000 majority.