Basingstoke
2010 Results:
Conservative: 25590 (50.52%)
Labour: 10327 (20.39%)
Liberal Democrat: 12414 (24.51%)
UKIP: 2076 (4.1%)
Others: 247 (0.49%)
Majority: 13176 (26.01%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 16549 (38.3%)
Labour: 14598 (33.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9380 (21.7%)
Other: 2655 (6.1%)
Majority: 1951 (4.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 19955 (41.5%)
Labour: 15275 (31.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 9952 (20.7%)
BNP: 821 (1.7%)
Green: 928 (1.9%)
UKIP: 1044 (2.2%)
Other: 148 (0.3%)
Majority: 4680 (9.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 20490 (42.7%)
Labour: 19610 (40.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6693 (13.9%)
UKIP: 1202 (2.5%)
Majority: 880 (1.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 24751 (43.3%)
Labour: 22354 (39.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9714 (17%)
Other: 310 (0.5%)
Majority: 2397 (4.2%)
Boundary changes: Major. Loses Calleva, Pamber, Upton Grey & The Candovers and part of Sherborne St John to Hampshire North East, while gaining part of Hatch Warren & Beggarwood, a tiny part of Popley West and most of the small ward of Rooksdown from Hampshire North West.
Profile: Basingstoke was once a small market town, but has rapidly expanded since the 1960s, first seeing the development of council housing for the London overspill, and more recently becoming a site of major private development to cater for commuters into south-west London. It has also become a prosperous economic centre in its own right, with high tech and service industries.
The growth of the town has seen its boundaries drawn ever tighter around Basingstoke itself. On the old boundaries it included the rural hinterland to the north and south of the town, the new boundaries reduce the seat to just Basingstoke itself and a few villages close to the east of the town, including Old Basing and Newnham.
The seat has returned a Conservative MP since the 1920s, though in the 2001-2005 Parliament was briefly in the unusual position of being a mainland British seat represented by a Northern Irish political party when the then MP Andrew Hunter joined the DUP, having intended to relocate to Northern Ireland.
Current MP: Maria Miller(Conservative) born 1964, Wolverhampton. Educated at Brynteg Comprehensive school, Bridgend, and the LSE. Former marketing consultant and director of an advertising company. Contested Wolverhampton North East 2001. First elected as MP for Basingstoke 2005. Shadow minister for education 2005-2006, for family welfare 2006-2007, for children since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Maria Miller(Conservative) born 1964, Wolverhampton. Educated at Brynteg Comprehensive school, Bridgend, and the LSE. Former marketing consultant and director of an advertising company. Contested Wolverhampton North East 2001. First elected as MP for Basingstoke 2005. Shadow minister for education 2005-2006, for family welfare 2006-2007, for children since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Funda Pepperell (Labour) Educated at Southampton Solent University. Former international sprinter. Journalist
John Shaw (Liberal Democrat) Basingstoke and Deane councillor. Contested Southampton Test 2001.
Stella Howell (UKIP) Steve Saul (Basingstoke Common Man)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94433
Male: 49.5%
Female: 50.5%
Under 18: 24.2%
Over 60: 15.5%
Born outside UK: 7.1%
White: 95.6%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 1.6%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 71.8%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 18.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.1%
Owner-Occupied: 71.7%
Social Housing: 20.7% (Council: 0.8%, Housing Ass.: 19.9%)
Privately Rented: 5.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.1%
Don’t you think it’s something people like to believe exists?
People are quite hard headed about it.
I’ve heard lots of stories of stories of Tories canvassing in 1997 where people said you’ve been a good MP but I’m sorry I’m just completely fed up with the Tories,
I’m sure the same happened to Labour in 2010.
Absolutely most people vote for the party rather than the candidate, but this doesn’t mean that a minority don’t take into account the candidate. In most cases it won’t make a great deal of difference but in a few it may make quite a lot. Who believes for example that the Conservatives would have won Crewe & Nantwich in 2010 if Gwyneth Dunwoody was still the candidate? (it is possible I suppose but surely not by the margin they did win – double incumbency again – the loss of Dunwoody’s + a bit for Timpson). Cannock Chase is another one. I;d have expected a big swing there regardless, but would Labour have lost a third of their vote share if Tony Wright was still the candidate?
I think it does exist, but of course some MPs have the reverse effect. For example, the always rather unclubbable & standoffish David Winnick may well have done worse than a new candidate would have done (sorry David).
I may have over-stated it,
I think it does exist but it’s very variable.
It’s just that Robert seems to refer to it an awful lot as though it’s almost automatic.
It also depends on the type of election.
If people really want to change the government and you’re in a marginal seat, they may decide they have to harsh.
I think the Tory share is just above 1992 here. (0.2%).
So it will be around 1.5% below 1987,
but above 1983 and 1979.
But there has been a lot of change in the constituency, and it’s within a margina of error,
so it’s difficult to prove.
This MP seems to be quite a rising star.
(Somebody predicted a Lib Dem gain here back in April btw).
Hilarious.
‘Somebody predicted a Lib Dem gain here back in April btw’
That is hilarious but this is yet another seat where Labour has slipped from challengers to third on almost less than 20% of the vote, despite boundary changes that should have been to their benefit
This urban seat perfectly illustrates just how unpopular Labour have (or should that be had) become in the south of England