Basingstoke
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 16549 (38.3%)
Labour: 14598 (33.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9380 (21.7%)
Other: 2655 (6.1%)
Majority: 1951 (4.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 19955 (41.5%)
Labour: 15275 (31.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 9952 (20.7%)
BNP: 821 (1.7%)
Green: 928 (1.9%)
UKIP: 1044 (2.2%)
Other: 148 (0.3%)
Majority: 4680 (9.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 20490 (42.7%)
Labour: 19610 (40.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6693 (13.9%)
UKIP: 1202 (2.5%)
Majority: 880 (1.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 24751 (43.3%)
Labour: 22354 (39.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9714 (17%)
Other: 310 (0.5%)
Majority: 2397 (4.2%)
Boundary changes: Major. Loses Calleva, Pamber, Upton Grey & The Candovers and part of Sherborne St John to Hampshire North East, while gaining part of Hatch Warren & Beggarwood, a tiny part of Popley West and most of the small ward of Rooksdown from Hampshire North West.
Profile: Basingstoke was once a small market town, but has rapidly expanded since the 1960s, first seeing the development of council housing for the London overspill, and more recently becoming a site of major private development to cater for commuters into south-west London. It has also become a prosperous economic centre in its own right, with high tech and service industries.
The growth of the town has seen its boundaries drawn ever tighter around Basingstoke itself. On the old boundaries it included the rural hinterland to the north and south of the town, the new boundaries reduce the seat to just Basingstoke itself and a few villages close to the east of the town, including Old Basing and Newnham.
The seat has returned a Conservative MP since the 1920s, though in the 2001-2005 Parliament was briefly in the unusual position of being a mainland British seat represented by a Northern Irish political party when the then MP Andrew Hunter joined the DUP, having intended to relocate to Northern Ireland.
Outgoing MP: Maria Miller(Conservative) born 1964, Wolverhampton. Educated at Brynteg Comprehensive school, Bridgend, and the LSE. Former marketing consultant and director of an advertising company. Contested Wolverhampton North East 2001. First elected as MP for Basingstoke 2005. Shadow minister for education 2005-2006, for family welfare 2006-2007, for children since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Maria Miller(Conservative) born 1964, Wolverhampton. Educated at Brynteg Comprehensive school, Bridgend, and the LSE. Former marketing consultant and director of an advertising company. Contested Wolverhampton North East 2001. First elected as MP for Basingstoke 2005. Shadow minister for education 2005-2006, for family welfare 2006-2007, for children since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Funda Pepperell (Labour) Educated at Southampton Solent University. Former international sprinter. Journalist
John Shaw (Liberal Democrat) Basingstoke and Deane councillor. Contested Southampton Test 2001.
Craig Sandeford (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94433
Male: 49.5%
Female: 50.5%
Under 18: 24.2%
Over 60: 15.5%
Born outside UK: 7.1%
White: 95.6%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 1.6%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 71.8%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 18.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.1%
Owner-Occupied: 71.7%
Social Housing: 20.7% (Council: 0.8%, Housing Ass.: 19.9%)
Privately Rented: 5.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.1%
On Kieran’s point, it’s hard to work out what the irreducable minimum is for either party.
Quite a lot of “core” voters still don’t vote outside General Elections,
but the Tories in 1995 and Labour in 2008/2009 must have tested it to destruction.
“I thought Labour overtook by 1986″
No, the Tories still had more councils and councillors than Labour right up until 1989 and then Labour moved into the lead in 1990.
Interestingly, Labour started off in 1997 with roughly the same councillor numbers as the Tories had in 1979. In fact, the Tories had control of LESS councils than Labour had in 1979 because of course Labour still dominated in the Welsh and Scottish districts, the inner London boroughs and some English districts and metropolitan areas as well as the metropolitan counties. By contrast, by 1997 the Tories only controlled 1 county, a couple of london boroughs and a handful of English districts (many by majorities of 1 or 2 seats).
And yet not only did the Tories turn the situation around after 1997 much quicker than Labour managed after 1979, but according to the media such as the BBC local election coverage, the Tories performance in most local elections since 1997 was pretty dire.
Of course, the disparity may be because in 1998-2001 the media were comparing with Labour’s astonishing performances in 1994-96, and then in 2002-08 they were comparing with the Conservatives often pretty good performances (although talked down at the time) of 2000 onwards.
Just goes to show how local election results each year can be manipulated by the media just by using a different base each time.
It certainly seems easier to get 26 or 27% in a set of local elections and get away with it than it used to be.
Thanks for the figures Shaun – it’s good to have more detail on this.
Shaun, I think part of the problem is that people look at councils and councillors when they should really look at vote share. Aside from questions as to the methodology of calculating a projected national share, I feel that it is the best way of measuring the popularity of the main political parties that transcends the tendancy of FPTP to exaggerate the winning margin for parties on the up, and magnifies the decline of parties on a downward spiral.
“No, the Tories still had more councils and councillors than Labour right up until 1989 and then Labour moved into the lead in 1990.”
From the HoP official statistics:
1990
Con 9020
Lab 8920
1991
Lab 9504
Con 7985
It took 12 years for Labour to take the lead but only 6 for the Conservatives.
Perhaps the key to this is
the big one is
the 79/83/87/91/95/99/03/07
round.
It is lower key because nothing in London for lazy journalists, and perhaps a little harder to project the share of the vote.
Labour didn’t really get a chance to make big inroads on this one until 1991 as otherwise it had coincided with the General Elections, and even in 1991 it was a good performance but not good enough.
I don’t think the Biog piece above is correct re this seat and Andrew Hunter. He sat as an Ind Con in the Commons as the Tories new policy prevented him standing for both the NI Assembly and Westminster; but, obviously he did stand for the DUP and ironically lost to the Lagan Valley MP Jeffrey Donaldson before he himself defected to the DUP also. Any ideas what he’s upto these days?
The Lib Dems have selected John Shaw here – he stood in Southampton Test in 2001
Basingstoke
May 2010
Most likely
*Con 22,473 47.5% +9.2%
Lab 13,531 28.6% -5.2%
LD 7,522 15.9% -5.8%
BNP 1,372 2.9%
Green 1,325 2.8%
UKIP 1,088 2.3%
Con majority 18.9%
Total votes 47,311
Swing 7.2% from Lab to Con
Con Hold
Labour still have several district councillors here.
Surely on these new bounderies if they were faught in 97 & 01, this would have been a labour seat?
Yes Sparky – well certainly in 2001, and probably in 1997 too.
Yes, that is pretty clear. Come the next Labour landslide, this could be vulnerable.
…well, unless of course the constituency quota were to be increased for whatever reason in the near future. That would probably see Tory wards from the fringes of the town added back to the seat perhaps.
…Alternatively, I wonder what the chances are of getting a Basingstoke North and Basingstoke South seats?